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A Study on the Overall Economic Risks of a Hypothetical Severe Accident in Nuclear Power Plant Using the Delphi Method (델파이 기법을 이용한 원전사고의 종합적인 경제적 리스크 평가)

  • Jang, Han-Ki;Kim, Joo-Yeon;Lee, Jai-Ki
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.127-134
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    • 2008
  • Potential economic impact of a hypothetical severe accident at a nuclear power plant(Uljin units 3/4) was estimated by applying the Delphi method, which is based on the expert judgements and opinions, in the process of quantifying uncertain factors. For the purpose of this study, it is assumed that the radioactive plume directs the inland direction. Since the economic risk can be divided into direct costs and indirect effects and more uncertainties are involved in the latter, the direct costs were estimated first and the indirect effects were then estimated by applying a weighting factor to the direct cost. The Delphi method however subjects to risk of distortion or discrimination of variables because of the human behavior pattern. A mathematical approach based on the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. For this task, a model for data processing was developed. One-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis was applied to get a distribution of values of the weighting factor. The mean and median values of the weighting factor for the indirect effects appeared to be 2.59 and 2.08, respectively. These values are higher than the value suggested by OECD/NEA, 1.25. Some factors such as small territory and public attitude sensitive to radiation could affect the judgement of panel. Then the parameters of the model for estimating the direct costs were classified as U- and V-types, and two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis was applied to quantify the overall economic risk. The resulting median of the overall economic risk was about 3.9% of the gross domestic products(GDP) of Korea in 2006. When the cost of electricity loss, the highest direct cost, was not taken into account, the overall economic risk was reduced to 2.2% of GDP. This assessment can be used as a reference for justifying the radiological emergency planning and preparedness.

A Study on Fast Iris Detection for Iris Recognition in Mobile Phone (휴대폰에서의 홍채인식을 위한 고속 홍채검출에 관한 연구)

  • Park Hyun-Ae;Park Kang-Ryoung
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.43 no.2 s.308
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 2006
  • As the security of personal information is becoming more important in mobile phones, we are starting to apply iris recognition technology to these devices. In conventional iris recognition, magnified iris images are required. For that, it has been necessary to use large magnified zoom & focus lens camera to capture images, but due to the requirement about low size and cost of mobile phones, the zoom & focus lens are difficult to be used. However, with rapid developments and multimedia convergence trends in mobile phones, more and more companies have built mega-pixel cameras into their mobile phones. These devices make it possible to capture a magnified iris image without zoom & focus lens. Although facial images are captured far away from the user using a mega-pixel camera, the captured iris region possesses sufficient pixel information for iris recognition. However, in this case, the eye region should be detected for accurate iris recognition in facial images. So, we propose a new fast iris detection method, which is appropriate for mobile phones based on corneal specular reflection. To detect specular reflection robustly, we propose the theoretical background of estimating the size and brightness of specular reflection based on eye, camera and illuminator models. In addition, we use the successive On/Off scheme of the illuminator to detect the optical/motion blurring and sunlight effect on input image. Experimental results show that total processing time(detecting iris region) is on average 65ms on a Samsung SCH-S2300 (with 150MHz ARM 9 CPU) mobile phone. The rate of correct iris detection is 99% (about indoor images) and 98.5% (about outdoor images).

Changes in Growth Rate and Carbon Sequestration by Age of Landscape Trees (조경수목의 수령에 따른 생장율과 탄소흡수량 변화)

  • Jo, Hyun-Kil;Park, Hye-Mi
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.97-104
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    • 2017
  • Greenspace enlargement through proper landscape planting is essential to creating a low carbon society. This study analyzed changes in stem diameter growth rates(DGR), ratios of below ground/above ground biomass(B/A), and carbon sequestration by age of major landscape tree species. Landscape trees for study were 11 species and 112 individuals planted in middle region of Korea. The DGR and B/A were analyzed based on data measured through a direct harvesting method including root digging. The carbon sequestration by tree age was estimated applying the derived regression models. The annual DGR at breast height of trees over 30 years averaged 0.72 cm/yr for deciduous species and 0.83 cm/yr for evergreen species. The B/A of the trees over 30 years averaged 0.23 for evergreen species and 0.40 for deciduous species, about 1.7 times higher than evergreen species. The B/A by age in this study did not correspond to the existing result that it decreased as tree ages became older. Of the study tree species, cumulative carbon sequestration over 25 years was greatest with Zelkova serrata(198.3 kg), followed by Prunus yedoensis(121.7 kg), Pinus koraiensis(117.5 kg), and Pinus densiflora (77.4 kg) in that order. The cumulative carbon sequestration by Z. serrata offset about 5% of carbon emissions per capita from household electricity use for the same period. The growth rates and carbon sequestration for landscape trees were much greater than those for forest trees even for the same species. Based on these results, landscape planting and management strategies were explored to improve carbon sequestration, including tree species selection, planting density, and growth ground improvement. This study breaks new ground in discovering changes in growth and carbon sequestration by age of landscape trees and is expected to be useful in establishing urban greenspaces towards a low carbon society.

A Study on Optimal Site Selection for Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation System (AMOS): the Case of Honam and Jeju Areas (최적의 산악기상관측망 적정위치 선정 연구 - 호남·제주 권역을 대상으로)

  • Yoon, Sukhee;Won, Myoungsoo;Jang, Keunchang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.208-220
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    • 2016
  • Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation System (AMOS) is an important ingredient for several climatological and forest disaster prediction studies. In this study, we select the optimal sites for AMOS in the mountain areas of Honam and Jeju in order to prevent forest disasters such as forest fires and landslides. So, this study used spatial dataset such as national forest map, forest roads, hiking trails and 30m DEM(Digital Elevation Model) as well as forest risk map(forest fire and landslide), national AWS information to extract optimal site selection of AMOS. Technical methods for optimal site selection of the AMOS was the firstly used multifractal model, IDW interpolation, spatial redundancy for 2.5km AWS buffering analysis, and 200m buffering analysis by using ArcGIS. Secondly, optimal sites selected by spatial analysis were estimated site accessibility, observatory environment of solar power and wireless communication through field survey. The threshold score for the final selection of the sites have to be higher than 70 points in the field assessment. In the result, a total of 159 polygons in national forest map were extracted by the spatial analysis and a total of 64 secondary candidate sites were selected for the ridge and the top of the area using Google Earth. Finally, a total of 26 optimal sites were selected by quantitative assessment based on field survey. Our selection criteria will serve for the establishment of the AMOS network for the best observations of weather conditions in the national forests. The effective observation network may enhance the mountain weather observations, which leads to accurate prediction of forest disasters.

Carbon Reduction and Enhancement for Greenspace in Institutional Lands (공공용지 녹지의 탄소저감과 증진방안)

  • Jo, Hyun-Kil;Park, Hye-Mi;Kim, Jin-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2020
  • This study quantified annual uptake and storage of carbon by urban greenspace in institutional lands and suggested improvement of greenspace structures to enhance carbon reduction effects. The study selected a total of five study cities including Seoul, Daejeon, Daegu, Chuncheon, and Suncheon, based on areal size and nationwide distribution. Horizontal and vertical greenspace structures were field-surveyed, after institutional greenspace lots were selected using a systematic random sampling method on aerial photographs of the study cities. Annual uptake and storage of carbon by woody plants were computed applying quantitative models of each species developed for urban landscape trees and shrubs. Tree density and stem diameter (at breast height) in institutional lands averaged 1.4±0.1 trees/100 ㎡ and 14.9±0.2 cm across the study cities, respectively. Of the total planted area, the ratio of single-layered planting only with trees, shrubs, or grass was higher than that of multi-layered structures. Annual uptake and storage of carbon per unit area by woody plants averaged 0.65±0.04 t/ha/yr and 7.37±0.47 t/ha, which were lower than those for other greenspace types at home and abroad. This lower carbon reduction was attributed to lower density and smaller size of trees planted in institutional lands studied. Nevertheless, the greenspace in institutional lands annually offset carbon emissions from institutional electricity use by 0.6 (Seoul)~1.9% (Chuncheon). Tree planting in potential planting spaces was estimated to sequester additionally about 18% of the existing annual carbon uptake. Enhancing carbon reduction effects requires active tree planting in the potential spaces, multi-layered/clustered planting composed of the upper trees, middle trees and lower shrubs, planting of tree species with greater carbon uptake capacity, and avoidance of the topiary tree maintenance. This study was focused on finding out greenspace structures and carbon offset levels in institutional lands on which little had been known.

Development of a complex failure prediction system using Hierarchical Attention Network (Hierarchical Attention Network를 이용한 복합 장애 발생 예측 시스템 개발)

  • Park, Youngchan;An, Sangjun;Kim, Mintae;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.127-148
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    • 2020
  • The data center is a physical environment facility for accommodating computer systems and related components, and is an essential foundation technology for next-generation core industries such as big data, smart factories, wearables, and smart homes. In particular, with the growth of cloud computing, the proportional expansion of the data center infrastructure is inevitable. Monitoring the health of these data center facilities is a way to maintain and manage the system and prevent failure. If a failure occurs in some elements of the facility, it may affect not only the relevant equipment but also other connected equipment, and may cause enormous damage. In particular, IT facilities are irregular due to interdependence and it is difficult to know the cause. In the previous study predicting failure in data center, failure was predicted by looking at a single server as a single state without assuming that the devices were mixed. Therefore, in this study, data center failures were classified into failures occurring inside the server (Outage A) and failures occurring outside the server (Outage B), and focused on analyzing complex failures occurring within the server. Server external failures include power, cooling, user errors, etc. Since such failures can be prevented in the early stages of data center facility construction, various solutions are being developed. On the other hand, the cause of the failure occurring in the server is difficult to determine, and adequate prevention has not yet been achieved. In particular, this is the reason why server failures do not occur singularly, cause other server failures, or receive something that causes failures from other servers. In other words, while the existing studies assumed that it was a single server that did not affect the servers and analyzed the failure, in this study, the failure occurred on the assumption that it had an effect between servers. In order to define the complex failure situation in the data center, failure history data for each equipment existing in the data center was used. There are four major failures considered in this study: Network Node Down, Server Down, Windows Activation Services Down, and Database Management System Service Down. The failures that occur for each device are sorted in chronological order, and when a failure occurs in a specific equipment, if a failure occurs in a specific equipment within 5 minutes from the time of occurrence, it is defined that the failure occurs simultaneously. After configuring the sequence for the devices that have failed at the same time, 5 devices that frequently occur simultaneously within the configured sequence were selected, and the case where the selected devices failed at the same time was confirmed through visualization. Since the server resource information collected for failure analysis is in units of time series and has flow, we used Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), a deep learning algorithm that can predict the next state through the previous state. In addition, unlike a single server, the Hierarchical Attention Network deep learning model structure was used in consideration of the fact that the level of multiple failures for each server is different. This algorithm is a method of increasing the prediction accuracy by giving weight to the server as the impact on the failure increases. The study began with defining the type of failure and selecting the analysis target. In the first experiment, the same collected data was assumed as a single server state and a multiple server state, and compared and analyzed. The second experiment improved the prediction accuracy in the case of a complex server by optimizing each server threshold. In the first experiment, which assumed each of a single server and multiple servers, in the case of a single server, it was predicted that three of the five servers did not have a failure even though the actual failure occurred. However, assuming multiple servers, all five servers were predicted to have failed. As a result of the experiment, the hypothesis that there is an effect between servers is proven. As a result of this study, it was confirmed that the prediction performance was superior when the multiple servers were assumed than when the single server was assumed. In particular, applying the Hierarchical Attention Network algorithm, assuming that the effects of each server will be different, played a role in improving the analysis effect. In addition, by applying a different threshold for each server, the prediction accuracy could be improved. This study showed that failures that are difficult to determine the cause can be predicted through historical data, and a model that can predict failures occurring in servers in data centers is presented. It is expected that the occurrence of disability can be prevented in advance using the results of this study.