• Title/Summary/Keyword: 전략적 예측

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The Influence of Manager's Wealth on Adopting Anitakeover Measures (경영자의 부가 기업의 반인수조치 선택에 미치는 영향)

  • Choo, Hyun-Tai
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.167-186
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    • 1995
  • 기업인수합병(M&A) 시장의 활성화에 따라 적대적 공개매수를 방어하기 위한 반인수조치(Antitakeover Techniques)들에 관한 관심도 고조되고 있다. 지금까지 널리 알려져 있는 대표적인 반인수 조치들은 Fair Price Amendment(FPA), Classified Board Amendment(CBA)와 Poison Pills(PP) 등이다. 이들 대표적 세 반인수조치들 중에서 FPA와 CBA 채택의 경우는 주주들의 사전 승인이 요구되는데 반하여 PP는 주주들의 사전 승인없이 채택이 가능한 반인수조치이다. 이처럼 상이한 반인수조치들의 채택은 채택기업의 가치에 상이한 부의 효과를 미치는데, 이 분야의 많은 실증적연구 결과들이 보고되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 표본기업으로 현재까지 상호개별적으로 연구되어 왔던 두가지 반인수조치(FTA, CBA)에 PP와 비채택기업도 포함시키고 있다. 지금까지의 반인수조치 채택에 따른 기업가치에 미치는 부의 효과에 관한 연구결과를 확인해보고, 반인수조치 채택에 관한 경영자의 의사결정과 경영자의 부 사이에 체계적인 관계가 존재하는지를 실증분석하고자 한다. 여기서 경영자의 부는 기업내부자 지분율과 기업내 경영자를 위한 Golden Parachute의 존재 유무로 측정한다. 본 연구에서는 3개의 가설을 설정하였다. 가설1: 만일 경영자가 주주의 이익을 희생하면서 자신의 이익을 위한 반인수조치를 채택한다면, 반인수조치 채택의 공표는 평균적으로 기업가치에 부(-)의 효과를 보일 것이다. 가설2: 경영자의 내부지분율이 낮을때 경영자들은 주주에게 가장 해로운 반인수조치를 선택할 것이다. 가설3: Golden Parachute가 존재하지 않을때 경영자들은 주주에게 가장 해로운 반인수조치를 채택할 것이다. 본 연구의 대상기업들중에서 반인수조치 채택 기업들은 IRRC 1990년도판에서 수집되었고, 대칭표본 기업으로 반인수조치를 채택하지 않은 기업들은 CRSP 파일에서 기업규모, SIC 코드를 대응시켜 선정하였다. 임원, 관계이사들과 친인척을 포함하는 내부자의 지분과 Golden Parachute 존재 여부는 이 연구의 표본기업들의 Proxy Statement에서 수집하였다. 최종 표본기업은 FPA 채택기업, CBA 채택기업, PP채택기업, 그리고 비채택기업으로 4개의 상호 배타적인 기업 그룹으로 구성되었다. 본 연구는 Event Study와 Multinomial Logistic Regession의 두가지 실증분석 방법을 사용하였다. Event Study방법론은 반인수조치 채택 공표시 초과수익률을 조사하기 위해 사용하였다. Multinomial Logistic Regession은 선택된 반인수조치 종류와 설명 변수들(내부자 지분율, Golden Parachute)간에 체계적인 관계가 존재하는지를 검증하기 위해 사용되었다. 반인수조치들을 채택하는 기업들은 반인수조치를 채택하고 있지 않은 기업들에 비해 내부자 지분율이 낮게 나타났으며, 반인수조치 중 PP를 채택한 기업에서 가장 낮은 내부지분율을 보이고 있다. GP 채택을 보면 PP를 선택한 기업의 50%가 GP를 채택하였다. 본 연구에서 반인수조치 채택 발표일 하루 전후의 초과수익률을 조사한 결과는 반인수조치 미채택기업, CBA, FPA 채택기업들의 초과수익률은 통계적으로 의미가 없었으나, PP채택에 따른 초과수익률은 의미 있는 부(-)의 값을 나타냈다. 이와같이 CBA와 FPA채택기업들은 주주의 부를 감소시키지 않았으나 PP채택기업들은 주주의 부를 감소시켰다. 따라서 경영자는 주주의 이익을 희생시키면서 자신의 이익을 위해 PP를 선택하고 있음을 보여 주고 있다. 연구결과는 내부자 지분율의 크기가 경영자와 주주간의 이해를 효과적으로 일치시키고 있음을 제시하고 있다. 즉, 내부자 지분율이 큰 기업일수록 반인수조치를 채택하지 않거나 반인수조치 채택시에 주주의 이익에 반하지 않은 반인수조치를 선택하는 경향이 높다. Golden Parachute이 존재하는 기업은 FPA를 채택하거나 반인수조치를 채택하지 않는 것보다 PP나 CBA를 채택하는 경향이 더 높다. 한편 기업에서의 GP의 존재가 경영자의 가장 해로운 반인수조치 선택을 억제하지 못함을 보여주고 있는데, 이는 GP가 비효과적인 계약메카니즘임을 제기한다. GP가 경영자와 주주간의 이해를 일치시키도록하는 계약이라기 보다는 차라리 기업방어전략이 비효과적일때 경영자 자신의 안전판으로 제공되고 있음을 보여준다. 이 논문의 주요공헌은 기업내부자 지분율의 크기와 GP의 존재가 반인수조치 선택에 체계적인 영향을 미치고 있음을 보여준 것이다. 여기서 사용된 Multinomial Logistic모델은 내부지분을 크기와 GP의 존재가 PP또는 CBA가 채택될 것인지를 예측할 수 있게 한다.

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Information technology and changes in firm activities:A case of the service industry in the United States (정보기술과 기업활동의 변화:미국의 서비스산업을 사례로)

  • Lee, Jeong Rock
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.402-419
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    • 1994
  • Telecommunication and intormation technology have been conceived as crucial as well as revolutionary elements for recent and future social and economic development, and their development have led to a spatial reorganization and locational change of economic activities. Information technology has resulted in important changes in the organization structure and location of firm. This study draws attention to the understanding of the relationship between the diffusion of information technology and changes in firm activities with the special reference to the service industry of the United States. Information technology has had a significant impact on the growth and changes of the service industry of the United States through changes in the organizational and employment structure, market structure, and locational changes. The impact of information technology on location changes of the service industry shows two opposite patterns, concentration and decentralization. Among these patterns, the location change in the service industry of the United States reveals predominantly the decentralization tendency such as suburbanization and transfer to lower ranking cities rather than concentration. In case of Korea, however, it is anticipated that the rapid development of information technology may lead to the concentration of the service industry in Seoul and Capital region.

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Effect of healthcare access and healthcare provider status on recommendation for Pap test among Korean American women in Alameda and Santa Clam Counties, California (미국 캘리포니아주에 거주하는 한인여성들의 자궁경부암 수검권고에 영향을 미치는 보건의료 접근성 및 보건의료인의 특성 분석)

  • Kim, Young-Bok
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.79-92
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: Recommendation for regular Pap test in the past 3 years as a cue to action affects on an increased likelihood of receiving a cervical cancer screening in that period. This study performed to estimate the association with healthcare access, healthcare provider status, and physician recommendation for Pap test in the past 3 years among Korean American women. Method: Korean Health survey was carried out in 2002. These population-based telephone surveys were conducted with Korean American women who resided in Alameda and Santa Clara Counties, California (n=865). We preformed multiple logistic regression analyses to estimate predictors of physician recommendation for Pap test by SAS 8.2. Results: Korean women in two California Counties were 37.9% who received physician recommendation for Pap test in the past 3 years. The predictors on physician recommendation for Pap test in the past 3 years were health insurance coverage, visiting number to doctor in the past year, and healthcare provider status. For healthcare access, no matter who had enrolled in public or private health insurances, the women were more likely to get the recommendation for Pap test from their regular healthcare provider. Particularly, for ethnicity of healthcare provider, the women were more likely to get the recommendation for Pap test from non-Korean female doctors (OR=6.21, 95% CI=2.63, 14.66), Korean male doctors (OR=2.19, 95% CI=1.30, 3.68), and non-Korean male doctors (OR=2.07, 95% CI=1.15, 3.71). Conclusion: (삭제) Effect of healthcare access and healthcare provider status on recommendation for Pap test among Korean American women in two California Counties would contribute to our understanding of developing strategies to promote adherence of Pap test and reduce morbidity and mortality far cervical cancer among Korean American women in the U.S.

Dynamic Changes of Urban Spatial Structure in Seoul: Focusing on a Relative Office Price Gradient (오피스 가격경사계수를 이용한 서울시 도시공간구조 변화 분석)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 2021
  • With the increasing demand for office space, there have been questions on how office rent distribution produces a change in the urban spatial structure in Seoul. The purpose of this paper is to investigate a relative price gradient and to present a time-series model that can quantitatively explain the dynamic changes in the urban spatial structure. The analysis was dealt with office rent above 3,306 m2 for the past 10 years from 1Q 2010 to 4Q 2019 within Seoul. A modified repeat sales model was employed. The main findings are briefly summarized as follows. First, according to the estimates of the office price gradient in the three major urban centers of Seoul, the CBD remained at a certain level with little change, while those in the GBD and the YBD continued to increase. This result reveals that the urban form of Seoul has shifted from monocentric to polycentric. This shows that the spatial distribution of companies has gradually accelerated decentralized concentration implying that the business networks have become significant. Second, contrary to small and medium-sized office buildings that have undertaken no change in the gradient, large office buildings have seen an increase in the gradient. The relative price gradients in small and medium-sized buildings were inversely proportional among the CBD, the GBD, and the YBD, implying their heterogeneous submarkets by office rent movements. Presumably, those differences in the submarkets were attributed to investment attraction, industrial competition, and the credit and preference of tenants. The findings are consistent with the hierarchical system identified in the Seoul 2030 Plan as well as the literature about Seoul's urban form. This research claims that the proposed method, based on the modified repeat sales model, is useful in understanding temporal dynamic changes. Moreover, the findings can provide implications for urban growth strategies under rapidly changing market conditions.

Planting Design Strategy for a Large-Scale Park Based on the Regional Ecological Characteristics - A Case of the Central Park in Gwangju, Korea - (지역의 생태적 특성을 반영한 대형공원의 식재계획 전략 - 광주광역시 중앙근린공원을 사례로 -)

  • Kim, Miyeun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.11-28
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    • 2021
  • Due to its size and complex characteristics, it is not often to newly create a large park within an existing urban area. Also, there has been a lack of research on the planting design methodologies for a large park. This study aims to elucidate how ecological ideas can be applied to planting practice from a designer's perspective, and eventually suggest a planting design framework in the actual case, the Central Park in the City of Gwangju. This framework consists of spatial structure of planting area in order to connect and unite the separated green patches, to adapt to the changes of existing vegetation patterns, to maintain the visual continuity of landscape, and to organize the whole open space system. The framework can be provided for the spatial planning and planting design phase in which the landscape designer flexibly uses it with the design intentions as well as with an understanding of the physical, social, and aesthetic characteristics of the site. The significance of this approach is, first that it can maintain ecological and visual consistency of the both existing and introduced landscapes as a whole in spite of its intrinsic complexity and largeness, and second that it can help efficiently respond to the unexpected changes in the landscape. In the case study, comprehensive site analysis is conducted before developing the framework. In particular, wetlands and grasslands have been identified as potential wildlife habitat which critically determines the vegetation patterns of the green area. Accordingly, the lists of plant communities are presented along with the planting scheme for their shape, layout, and relations. The model of the plant community is developed responding to the structure of surrounding natural landscape. However, it is not designed to evolve to a specific plant community, but is rather a conceptual model of ecological potentials. Therefore, the application of the model has great flexibility by using other plant communities as an alternative as long as the characteristics of the communities are appropriate to the physical conditions. Even though this research provides valuable implications for landscape planning and design in the similar circumstances, there are several limitations to be overcome in the further research. First, there needs to be more sufficient field surveys on the wildlife habitats, which would help generate a more concrete planting model. Second, a landscape management plan should be included considering the condition of existing forest, in particular the afforested landscapes. Last, there is a lack of quantitative data for the models of some plant communities.

Forecasting Competition of Telecommunication Company in Full Browsing Service Market Based on First-Mover Advantage Analysis (풀브라우징 서비스 시장에서의 이동통신 3사의 경쟁 동향 분석: 선발자 이익 분석 관점)

  • Park, Jin-Soo;Choi, Young-Seok
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.145-164
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    • 2010
  • Since the third generation (3G) mobile communication service has been launched by most mobile communication operators in Korea, the portion of data service in mobile communication service becomes one of the most important factors in mobile communication service market. In past mobile communication market, most mobile communication operators made their profit mostly from voice communication service. However, the portion of profit from data service has gradually increased based on both video phone call and mobile Internet service. In this situation, LG telecom launched the full browsing mobile Internet service. This service provides a new type of mobile Internet service platform which enables to access the World Wide Web using mobile browsers, so we generally access the Web using web browsers in the desktop computer. Under the open network structure of mobile Internet like situation, it is very important to analyze the factors which can affect the competition between mobile communication service companies. So, in this paper, we first present the current state of full browsing service, followed by the expectation of its growth potentials and barriers. Then, we analyze the advantages and disadvantage of LG telecom as a first-mover and SK telecom/KTF as followers. Finally, based on this analysis, we predict the future competition among these companies and the market.

Estimation of the Spillovers during the Global Financial Crisis (글로벌 금융위기 동안 전이효과에 대한 추정)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.17-37
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the global spillover effects through the existence of linear and nonlinear causal relationships between the US, European and BRIC financial markets after the period from the introduction of the Euro, the financial crisis and the subsequent EU debt crisis in 2007~2010. Although the global spillover effects of the financial crisis are well described, the nature of the volatility effects and the spread mechanisms between the US, Europe and BRIC stock markets have not been systematically examined. A stepwise filtering methodology was introduced to investigate the dynamic linear and nonlinear causality, which included a vector autoregressive regression model and a multivariate GARCH model. The sample in this paper includes the post-Euro period, and also includes the financial crisis and the Eurozone financial and sovereign crisis. The empirical results can have many implications for the efficiency of the BRIC stock market. These results not only affect the predictability of this market, but can also be useful in future research to quantify the process of financial integration in the market. The interdependence between the United States, Europe and the BRIC can reveal significant implications for financial market regulation, hedging and trading strategies. And the findings show that the BRIC has been integrated internationally since the sub-prime and financial crisis erupted in the United States, and the spillover effects have become more specific and remarkable. Furthermore, there is no consistent evidence supporting the decoupling phenomenon. Some nonlinear causality persists even after filtering during the investigation period. Although the tail distribution dependence and higher moments may be significant factors for the remaining interdependencies, this can be largely explained by the simple volatility spillover effects in nonlinear causality.

Analysis of Abroad Mid- to Long-Term R&D Themes and Market Information in the Geological Information and Mineral Resources Fields (지질정보 및 광물자원 분야 국외 중장기 연구개발 주제 및 시장정보 분석)

  • Ahn, Eun-Young
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.637-645
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    • 2019
  • Due to the transformation to the intelligent information society, the rapid change of our life and environment is expected. The Ministry of Science and ICT (MSIT) and the National Research Council of Science and Technology (NST) introduced a five-year government supported research institution's planning and evaluation based on the mid-to long-term perspective. This study collects international benchmarking information including industry, academia, and research fields by collecting mid- and long-term strategy reports from public research institutes, surveys by experts from abroad universities and research institutes, and analyzing overseas market information reports. The British Geological Survey (BGS), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the japanese geological survey related institutes (AIST-GSJ) plans for three-dimensional national geological information, predictions of geological environmental disasters, and development of important metals and material in the low carbon economic transformation and in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The mid- and long-term program emphasizes basic and public research on geological information through abroad experts survey such as the IPGP-CNRS etc. The market analysis of the mining automation and digital map sectors has been able to derive the fields in which the role of public research institutes by the market is expected such as data collection on land and in the air, mobile or three-dimensional information production, smooth/fast/real-time maps, custom map design, mapping support to various platforms, geological environmental risk assessment and disaster management information and maps.

The Effects of Meta-cognition, Problem-Solving Ability, Learning Flow of the College Engineering Students on Academic Achievement (전문대학 공학계열 신입생들의 메타인지, 문제해결력 및 학습몰입이 성취도에 미치는 영향)

  • Chung, Ae-Kyung;Maeng, Min-Jae;Yi, Sang-Hoi;Kim, Neung-Yeun
    • 전자공학회논문지 IE
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.73-81
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    • 2010
  • The main purpose of this study was to examine the effects of meta-cognition, learning flow and problem solving ability of the college engineering students on academic achievement. For this purpose, a total of 396 college engineering freshmen of the six different departments was chosen to conduct a survey. A hypothetical model was proposed, which was composed of meta-cognition, problem solving ability and learning flow as the prediction variables, and academic achievement as the outcome variables. The results of this study through multiple regression analysis showed that meta-cognition, learning flow and problem solving ability significantly influenced on the college engineering studnets' academic achievement. In addition, learning flow was used as a significant mediated variable in the relationships among meta-cognition, problem solving ability and academic achievement. Based on these study results, the above variables investigated in this study should be considered in the design and development of the college engineering courses that enable students to facilitate their problem-solving attitude and improve academic achievement.

Mathematical Modeling of the Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Virus and Evaluation of the Epidemic Response Strategies in the Republic of Korea (수학적 모델을 이용한 신종인플루엔자 환자 예측 및 대응 전략 평가)

  • Suh, Min-A;Lee, Jee-Hyun;Chi, Hye-Jin;Kim, Young-Keun;Kang, Dae-Yong;Hur, Nam-Wook;Ha, Kyung-Hwa;Lee, Dong-Han;Kim, Chang-Soo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 2010
  • Objectives: The pandemic of novel influenza A (H1N1) virus has required decision-makers to act in the face of the substantial uncertainties. In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of the pandemic response strategies in the Republic of Korea using a mathematical model. Methods: We developed a deterministic model of a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in a structured population using the demographic data from the Korean population and the epidemiological feature of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009. To estimate the parameter values for the deterministic model, we used the available data from the previous studies on pandemic influenza. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea for novel influenza A (H1N1) virus such as school closure, mass vaccination (70% of population in 30 days), and a policy for anti-viral drug (treatment or prophylaxis) were applied to the deterministic model. Results: The effect of two-week school closure on the attack rate was low regardless of the timing of the intervention. The earlier vaccination showed the effect of greater delays in reaching the peak of outbreaks. When it was no vaccination, vaccination at initiation of outbreak, vaccination 90 days after the initiation of outbreak and vaccination at the epidemic peak point, the total number of clinical cases for 400 days were 20.8 million, 4.4 million, 4.7 million and 12.6 million, respectively. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea delayed the peak of outbreaks (about 40 days) and decreased the number of cumulative clinical cases (8 million). Conclusions: Rapid vaccination was the most important factor to control the spread of pandemic influenza, and the response strategies of the Republic of Korea were shown to delay the spread of pandemic influenza in this deterministic model.