• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.396-396
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• 2023

기후 위기에 대한 대응으로 현재 많은 국가에서 2050년 탄소중립을 목표로 하고 있으며, 우리나라도 2050년까지 탄소중립을 선언하고 다양한 부문의 배출 절감 계획을 내세웠다. 현재 건물 부문에서는 2050년의 목표배출량을 6.2 백만톤 CO2eq으로 설정하고 관련 정책적 수단을 검토 중이지만 달성 방안 등에 대해서는 구체적으로 제시하지 못하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 국내 건물 부문의 이산화탄소의 배출량 산정 모델을 개발하여, 2050년까지 이산화탄소 배출 저감 시나리오를 시뮬레이션하였다. 이를 토대로 국내의 건물 부문 탄소중립 가능성을 검토한 통합 시나리오를 제시하고, 향후 정책 및 기술 개발의 방향성을 제시한다. 탄소배출량 산정모델은 연면적 예측 및 사용 에너지의 원단위 환산, 탄소배출계수 등을 고려해 개발하였고, 이를 활용하여 4가지 탄소배출 시나리오를 분석하였다. 먼저 현재 정책 기반 탄소 배출 시나리오는 탄소중립에 이르지 못하여 더 강화된 시나리오의 필요성을 보여준다. 신규 건물을 대상으로 한 제로 에너지화 제도 기반 시나리오는 전체 탄소배출량에 큰 기여를 하지 못하며, 기존 건물 대상의 그린 리모델링 제도 기반 시나리오에서는 10년 이상 건물에 50% 이상의 높은 에너지 효율 개선을 시행해야 한다는 결과를 도출하였다. 또한 전기화 시나리오에서는 화석연료와 전력의 탄소배출계수를 비교하여 적절한 에너지 전환 시점을 계산하였다. 그 결과, 건물 부문에서 2050년까지 탄소배출량 감축 목표 달성을 위해 신축 건물의 에너지 자립율 100%, 에너지 전환 계획과 연동한 건물의 전기화, 그리고 그린리모델링을 통한 효율 개선 기준을 47% 이상 달성하는 조건을 만족해야 한다는 결과를 얻었다. 이 연구는 도전적인 온실가스 감축 마련의 필요성을 제시하였으며, 탄소중립 가능성을 제시하여 실질적인 감축정책에 기여할 것으로 기대한다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society of Design Studies Conference
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• 2002.05b
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• pp.60-61
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• 2002

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2010.11a
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• pp.419-430
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• 2010

• Electronics and Telecommunications Trends
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.156-170
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• 2008

21세기 지식경제사회의 우위를 선점하기 위해 세계 선진국에서는 미래전략 연구에 대한 연구를 활발히 추진하고 있다. 반면에 우리나라의 경우 미래전략 연구에 소홀한 실정으로, 지난 2007년 한국전자통신연구원(ETRI)에서는 IT 기반 융합기술 시대를 대비함과 동시에 신성장 동력 발굴을 위한 비전연구를 진행하였다. 2012년과 2020년을 각 각 중기와 장기목표로 구분하고, '즐겁고, 편리하고, 안전한 인간중심 IT 비전'을 topdown 방식으로 설정하였다. 설정된 비전 달성을 위해 비전위원회를 구성하여 bottom-up 방식으로 메가 트렌드 분석, 델파이, 시나리오 기법, TRM 설계를 통하여 미래 전략을 수립하였다. 본 고는 국외에서 활발히 진행되고 있는 미래예측 및 기술예측 등 미래전략 연구 방법론과 사례에 대해 연구결과를 중심으로 정리하였다. 그리고, 이러한 미래전략 방법론을 ETRI 비전수립 과정과 접목한 사례 일부 결과를 고찰하였다. 본 고를 통해 아직 초보단계에 있는 국내 비전연구, 미래예측 및 전략수립에 대한 방향을 제시한다.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.13 no.11
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• pp.5015-5024
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• 2012

This research focused on the strategy formulation for the Innopolis as a Global Innovation Cluster. The study was performed based on both theoretical study and qualitative study approaches. Particularly, scenario planning as a foresight method was used for the strategy formulation. The major determinants for the success of the Innopolis can be summarized as follows; the enhancement of the host institution for the development of the innovation cluster, the relational capability of the Innopolis among daedeok, gwangju, daegu and the alignment and cooperation of the International Science & Business Belt. In terms of the needs of times, this study regarding the strategy for the formation of the Innopolis as the global innovation cluster is anticipated to be a good reference for policy makers and researchers in coming years.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.7-17
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• 2007

This study suggests ways to utilize the concept of environmental justice in order to improve the environment through strategies related to emissions. In Particular, this study explores ways to ameliorate the environment and traffic in consideration of environmental justice instead of simply aiming to reduce emissions. Real-time traffic information was gathered using ITS, it was input into a simulation model. and the level of present exhaust fume emissions was found. At the same time, based on current traffic situations, diverse strategies for reducing emissions were evaluated and appropriate executable alternative measures for ensuring environmental justice were provided.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.14 no.10
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• pp.195-203
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• 2016

This paper, which was performed for an environmental analysis step in the information strategy planning, proposes the capable method of building a foundation which can improve the quality of results. An existing environment analyzing method is composed with external environment analysis, internal capacity analysis and information direction deriving activity. At the first stage of environment analysis, with current state analysis, preparation of interview with major stakeholder of project, carrying out the interview, added the activities to gain initial direction of the information. Then it applied a key-questioning of convergence scenario-based analysis for external environment analysis and internal capacity analysis. Performing the external environment analysis and internal capacity analysis with analysis model, convergence application of scenario-based analysis model was enabled to verify information direction on the initial setting. The result was applied at actual project site and was enabled to perform the project quickly, and to improve the quality of project results.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.604-626
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• 2012

As a society of knowledge and information has been developed rapidly, because of changing from web environment to ubiquitous environment, a lot of countries across the world as well as S. Korea for e-Government have come to use the internet electronic voting for a variety of elections. So this research focused on the strategy consulting of the internet electronic voting of S. Korea with spatial information system analysed by the application of 'scenario planning' as a foresight method. And as a consequence, the strategy formulation of the electronic voting for the future S. Korea is to use the biometrics technology system as vein recognition and face recognition, using a part of the human body like a password, with spatial information system.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.7 no.6
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• pp.1259-1273
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• 2012

As a society of knowledge and information has been developed rapidly, because of changing from web environment to ubiquitous environment, a lot of countries across the world as well as S. Korea for national information with electronic Government have a variety of changes with big data. So this study is about development for national information and e-government of S. Korea with public data as big data analysed by the application of scenario planning. And then this research focused on the strategy consulting of national information with e-Government of S. Korea for utilization of public data as big data analysed by the application of 'scenario planning' as a foresight method. As a result, the future policy for utilization of public data as big data for national information with electronic government of S. Korea is to further spur the development of technology for linked data with semantic web for 'understanding of machine' than 'understanding of man'.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.146-154
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• 2007

The u-City construction project has become a hot topic In the construction market because it seems economic value-added field for construction firms. However, construction firms don't willingly participate in the u-City construction market because the future business environments for the u-City are very uncertain. Scenario planning is a very powerful method in managing this complex planning situation and is based on scenarios that help each enterprise appropriately adapt itself to its own business environments. Therefore it Is based on the main principles of systems thinking and multiple futures. For the purpose of dealing with such uncertainties, this paper attempts to develop the possible market scenarios of the u-City construction market through a scenario planning approach. From this perspective, we considered various aspects of the u-City construction such as market demands, technology development, policy level and management environment. After considering the relevant issues, we identified the main trends and key uncertainties. Then, we developed three coherent u-City construction market scenarios. On the basis of the proposed scenarios, the business strategies of potential construction firms in the u-City construction market has been formulated. Therefore, construction firms can use these scenarios as a basic data for market analysis and business strategy. Therefore, this paper is able to enhance the participation of construction firms in the u-City construction market.