• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.39-48
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• 2011

To predict the shelf-life of ammunition stockpiled in intermediate have practical meaning as a core value of combat support. This research is to Predict the shelf-life of ammunition by applying time series analysis based on report from ASRP of the 155mm, KD541 performed for 6 years. This study applied time series analysis using 'Mini-tab program' to measure the amount of stabilizer as time passes by is different from the other one that uses regression analysis. The average shelf-life of KD541 drawn by time series analysis was 43 years and the lowest shelf-life assessed on the 95% confidence level was 35 years.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.11 no.11
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• pp.44-50
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• 2021

Recently, enterprise storage systems that require large-capacity storage devices to accommodate big data have used large-capacity flash memory-based storage devices with high density compared to cost and size. This paper proposes a high-efficiency life prediction method with slope descent to maximize the life of flash memory media that directly affects the reliability and usability of large enterprise storage devices. To this end, this paper proposes the structure of a matrix for storing metadata for learning the frequency of defects and proposes a cost model using metadata. It also proposes a life expectancy prediction policy in exceptional situations when defects outside the learned range occur. Lastly, it was verified through simulation that a method proposed by this paper can maximize its life compared to a life prediction method based on the fixed number of times and the life prediction method based on the remaining ratio of spare blocks, which has been used to predict the life of flash memory.

• Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.9-14
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• 2021

In computing systems that require high reliability, the method of predicting the lifetime of a storage device is one of the important factors for system management because it can maximize usability as well as data protection. The life of a solid state drive (SSD) that has recently been used as a storage device in several storage systems is linked to the life of the NAND flash memory that constitutes it. Therefore, in a storage system configured using an SSD, a method of accurately and efficiently predicting the lifespan of a NAND flash memory is required. In this paper, a method for optimizing the lifetime prediction of a flash memory-based storage device using the frequency of NAND flash memory failure is proposed. For this, we design a cost matrix to collect the frequency of defects that occur when processing data in units of Drive Writes Per Day (DWPD). In addition, a method of predicting the remaining cost to the slope where the life-long finish occurs using the Gradient Descent method is proposed. Finally, we proved the excellence of the proposed idea when any defect occurs with simulation.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.62-67
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• 1998

This study was undertaken to find out distribution and contamination sources of microbes on the processing steps and to estimate quality index and shelf life of fried bean curd. It was necessary that the sanitation for water, processing environment and instruments at digestion, formation, cutting and processes after frying must be controlled and microbial growth at digestion and formation must be inhibited, to process efficiently and to improve shelf life of fried bean curd. It was evaluated that quality indexes as to sensory evaluation, especially texture, mold generation and total viable cell counts will be useful to estimate shelf life of fried bean curd and that shelf life of fried bean curd was 6 days.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.17-25
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• 2014

The purpose of this paper is to present a method to estimate the storage life of propellant bag for degradation of breaking load with storage time by using gamma process model. The nitrogen compound generated by natural decomposition of propellants degrades the breaking load of propellant bag with time. The statistical distributions of condition and lifetime with time were shown from the results of accelerated life test of propellant bag cloth at $80^{\circ}C$. It was found that the use of median for life was highly appropriate and the $B_1$ or $B_5$ life should be selectively applied to the quality assurance policy.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.30-36
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• 2013

This paper presents a method to estimate a storage life for loss of stabilizer content as storage periods using accelerated life test data. The estimate of storage life based on deterministic accelerated life test and degradation data cannot describe a condition distribution and storage life distribution. Previously, the method to show the condition distribution and storage life distribution by using gamma process has been studied. But it has limitation because it is impossible to collect the deterioration data at initial production phase. The estimated storage life presented by this study shows the similar value to previous studies and the method can describe the condition distribution and storage life distribution. So, the estimation method studied in this paper can be used for a life cycle management about deterioration of propellant for propulsion unit or components of missile, too.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.33-41
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• 2012

The aim of the study is to investigate the method to estimate a shelf life of KM6 single base propellant by stochastic gamma process model. The state failure level is assumed that the degradation content of stabilizer is below 0.8%. The constant of time dependent shape function and the scale parameter of stationary gamma process are estimated by moment method. The state distribution at each storage time can be shown from probability density function of deterioration. It is estimated that the $B_{10}$ life, a time at which the cumulative failure probability is 10%, is 25 years and the $B_{50}$ life is 36 years from cumulative failure distribution function curve. The $B_{50}$ life can be treated as the average shelf life from the practical viewpoint and the lifetime can be expressed as distribution curve by using stochastic process theory.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.628-633
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• 2020

This paper presents an analysis of the shelf-life management program of the long-term storage one-shot system. The one-shot system is mainly maintained with long-term storage or non-operating status and is operated once at execution of the mission. The function corresponding to one-shot is mainly operated through a shelf-life item such as an explosive. The performance and characteristics of shelf-life item are subject to change as the storage period passes. Therefore, shelf-life management for maintaining good condition is very important during long-term storage, and criteria for management is necessary. We present a method for optimizing shelf-life extension by comparing criteria for management with current reliability. Next, the shelf-life evaluation schedule was decided by utilizing the reliability function of exponential distribution and Weibull distribution. Continuously accumulated test data from the shelf-life evaluation were analyzed, and the parameter of distribution was updated. The extension or expiration of shelf-life was selected by monitoring changes in reliability. In addition, we confirmed the applicability of the presented shelf-life management program by applying ASRP test data of the one-shot system K000 fuse.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• v.48 no.6
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• pp.695-699
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• 2010

The propellant KM10, a single propellant manufactured from nitrocellulose, was known to cause natural degradation phenomena at long term storage. In this study, the self-life was estimated using high temperature acceleration aging tests and stockpile analysis test. For the life expectancy estimation, Arrhenius equation and Berthelot equation were used in the high temperature acceleration tests, and the first order regression was used in the Stockpile analysis test. The self-life of propellant KM10 using the Arrhenius equation and Berthelot equation showed significantly different results as 43.73, 16.53 years in the high temperature acceleration test, and it showed 42.94 years in the Stockpile analysis test. The value of self-life predicted by Arrhenius equation was reasonable when compared with the result of E. R. Bixon.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.611-620
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• 2018

Limitations on human and material resources make it is difficult to conduct Ammunition Stockpile Reliability Program (ASRP) tasks for the entire ammunition. Stockpile ammunition life prediction studies can contribute to efficient ASRP tasks. This study assess the shelf-life of ammunition, using survival analysis based on ASRP results for 60mm and 81mm mortar ammunition from 2003 to 2016. Traditional assessments often use solely storage duration as the only main independent variable; however, this assessment used other factors such as ammunition magazine shape and weather factors with the stockpile shelf-life as independent variables to conduct a Cox's proportional hazard model analysis. This was then followed by an assessment of ammunition magazine type, maximum temperature and rainfall factors influence on the shelf-life of 60mm and 81mm mortar ammunition. As a result, the type of ammunition magazine, maximum temperature and the rainfall influence the shelf-life of 60mm and 81mm mortar ammunition.