• Title/Summary/Keyword: 잠재오차

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Probabilistic Medium- and Long-Term Reservoir Inflow Forecasts (I) Long-Term Runoff Analysis (확률론적 중장기 댐 유입량 예측 (I) 장기유출 해석)

  • Bae, Deg-Hyo;Kim, Jin-Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.3 s.164
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    • pp.261-274
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    • 2006
  • This study performs a daily long-term runoff analysis for 30 years to forecast medium- and long-term probabilistic reservoir inflows on the Soyang River basin. Snowmelt is computed by Anderson's temperature index snowmelt model and potenetial evaporation is estimated by Penman-combination method to produce input data for a rainfall-runoff model. A semi-distributed TOPMODEL which is composed of hydrologic rainfall-runoff process on the headwater-catchment scale based on the original TOPMODEL and a hydraulic flow routing model to route the catchment outflows using by kinematic wave scheme is used in this study It can be observed that the time variations of the computed snowmelt and potential evaporation are well agreed with indirect observed data such as maximum snow depth and small pan evaporation. Model parameters are calibrated with low-flow(1979), medium-flow(1999), and high-flow(1990) rainfall-runoff events. In the model evaluation, relative volumetric error and correlation coefficient between observed and computed flows are computed to 5.64% and 0.91, respectively. Also, the relative volumetric errors decrease to 17% and 4% during March and April with or without the snowmelt model. It is concluded that the semi-distributed TOPMODEL has well performance and the snowmelt effects for the long-term runoff computation are important on the study area.

Empirical Analysis of the Effect of EU ETS on the CO2 Emission (유럽공동체 배출권거래제 도입 효과에 대한 실증분석)

  • Kim, Hyun;Lee, Gwanghoon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.875-896
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    • 2010
  • Using the difference in differences (DID) estimation method, this paper analyzes the effect of European Union's Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on the reduction of per capita $CO_2$ emission among the twenty five participating countries. For this, the panel dataset of forty two European countries for the period 1990~2007 is constructed. Special attention is paid to the bias of the standard errors in the DID estimation due to the presence of serial correlation in the error terms. The results shows quite a robust effect of EU ETS on the reduction of per capita $CO_2$ emission among the participating countries regardless of the calculation methods of standard errors. The results also shows that the increased implicit tax rate on energy has a robust effect on the reduction of per capita $CO_2$ emission. On the contrary, the estimation results regarding the effects of per capita GDP and population density on the per capita $CO_2$ emission seem inconsistent. In particular, the environmental Kuznets curve is not statistically supported with the use of robust standard errors.

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A Study on the Method of Potential Evapotranspiration in PDSI (팔머가뭄지수의 잠재증발산량 산정 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Moon, Jang-Won;Lee, Dong-Ryul;Kim, Joong-Hoon;Paik, Kyung-Rock
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.438-438
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    • 2011
  • 팔머가뭄지수(Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI)는 가뭄을 정량적으로 표현하기 위해 제안된 최초의 포괄적인 가뭄지수라 할 수 있다. 가뭄을 단순히 하나의 기상인자로만 판단하려 한 것이 아니라 수문순환 과정 속에서 여러 가지 요소들의 복합적인 작용에 의한 결과로 인식하고 이를 가뭄지수 산정 과정에 고려하고자 하였다. 따라서 PDSI는 가뭄뿐만 아니라 습윤상황을 모니터링 하기 위한 용도로 이용될 수 있으며, 수분수지 분석을 통해 얻을 수 있는 함양량, 유출량, 토양수분량의 정보는 그 자체로서도 분석 대상 지역의 수분상황과 관련된 중요한 정보라 할 수 있다. 이러한 점에서 PDSI는 방법론상의 여러 가지 한계에도 불구하고 지금까지 가뭄의 모니터링 및 관리를 위해 우리나라를 비롯한 여러 국가 및 지역에서 널리 이용되고 있으며, 가뭄 정량화를 위한 새로운 가뭄지수 개발 시 적합성의 비교 기준으로 고려되고 있다. 그러나 지금까지 우리나라에서는 PDSI에서 고려하고 있는 기상 및 수문학적 조건이 우리나라의 상황을 적절히 표현할 수 있는가에 대한 검토가 미흡한 상황이라 할 수 있다. 우리나라의 자료를 이용하여 PDSI를 산정하였다 할지라도 지수 산정 과정에서 고려하고 있는 기상 및 수문특성이 적절하지 않을 경우 산정된 PDSI가 나타내는 가뭄상황과 실제 우리나라의 가뭄상황은 다를 수 있다. 특히 PDSI 산정 과정에서 잠재증발산량 산정 방법으로 이용하고 있는 월열지수법은 방법의 한계로 인해 우리나라와 같이 동절기 평균기온이 0도 이하로 떨어지는 경우에는 증발산량이 발생하지 않는 것으로 고려하고 있다. 이는 우리나라의 실제 증발산 발생 양상과 비교할 경우 크게 차이가 나는 점이라 할 수 있으며, 강수량과 증발산량의 관계에 대한 검토로부터 지수 산정 과정이 시작되는 PDSI에 있어 이러한 오차는 결과의 신뢰성 확보에 많은 어려움을 초래할 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기존 PDSI에서 이용하고 있는 월열지수법을 대체할 수 있는 방법에 대해 검토하였으며, 잠재증발산량 산정 방법의 변경에 따라 산정된 PDSI의 변동 양상에 대해 분석하였다. 본 연구의 결과를 통해 가뭄 모니터링 및 관리를 위한 지표로 널리 이용되고 있는 PDSI의 활용에 있어 유용한 정보 제공이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

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Investigation of Near.Transducer Errors in Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler Measurements Using Experimental and Numerical Method (ADCP 계기 부근에서 발생하는 관측 오차의 실험 및 수치모의에 의한 고찰)

  • Kim, Dong-Su;Kang, Boo-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.944-951
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    • 2011
  • This paper reports results of a joint experimental and numerical investigation of the causes of near-transducer errors due to the combined effect of acoustic and ADCP-induced flow disturbance near the ADCP transducer. The laboratory study focused on an isolated ADCP (deployment without boat). Measurements of the flow disturbance produced by the ADCP in vertical and horizontal planes were obtained acquiring measurements with an Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter (ADV). Concurrent measurements with ADCP and ADV were made to infer additional near-transducer effects in the ADCP measurements. The numerical investigation was designed to extend the inquiry on the near-transducer potential errors when the ADCP is deployed from a boat. Large Eddy Simulation (LES) was conducted to obtain the extent and magnitude of the disturbances induced by the drag acting on a boat-mounted ADCP and by the blockage effect of the instrument and boat. It is found the velocities measured by the ADCP are biased low and differ substantially from the undisturbed channel flow solution within a limited layer beneath the instrument.

Adaptive Error Diffusion for Text Enhancement (문자 영역을 강조하기 위한 적응적 오차 확산법)

  • Kwon Jae-Hyun;Son Chang-Hwan;Park Tae-Yong;Cho Yang-Ho;Ha Yeong-Ho
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.43 no.1 s.307
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2006
  • This Paper proposes an adaptive error diffusioThis paper proposes an adaptive error diffusion algorithm for text enhancement followed by an efficient text segmentation that uses the maximum gradient difference (MGD). The gradients are calculated along with scan lines, and the MGD values are filled within a local window to merge the potential text segments. Isolated segments are then eliminated in the non-text region filtering process. After the left segmentation, a conventional error diffusion method is applied to the background, while the edge enhancement error diffusion is used for the text. Since it is inevitable that visually objectionable artifacts are generated when using two different halftoning algorithms, the gradual dilation is proposed to minimize the boundary artifacts in the segmented text blocks before halftoning. Sharpening based on the gradually dilated text region (GDTR) prevents the printing of successive dots around the text region boundaries. The error diffusion algorithm with edge enhancement is extended to halftone color images to sharpen the tort regions. The proposed adaptive error diffusion algorithm involves color halftoning that controls the amount of edge enhancement using a general error filter. The multiplicative edge enhancement parameters are selected based on the amount of edge sharpening and color difference. Plus, the additional error factor is introduced to reduce the dot elimination artifact generated by the edge enhancement error diffusion. By using the proposed algorithm, the text of a scanned image is sharper than that with a conventional error diffusion without changing background.

Effects of Problem Drinking of Elderly on Life Satisfaction Mediated by Depression and Self-esteem: A Latent Means Analysis Application between Poor and Non-poor Elderly (노인 문제음주가 우울, 자아존중감을 매개로 삶의 만족도에 미치는 영향: 빈곤노인 및 비빈곤노인 집단에 대한 잠재평균분석의 적용)

  • Gweon, Hyun Soo
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.1521-1538
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of the present study was to examine the structural causal relationships among problem drinking of elderly, depression, self-esteem and life satisfaction through structural Equation Modeling and also to investigate how these effects were influenced by the differences in the structural relationships between poor and non-poor elderly. The results showed the positive relationship between problem drinking and depression not also poor elderly group but non-poor elderlys'. According to Multi-group analysis, Latent means analysis where non-poor elderly are used as the reference group, poor elderly group showed higher latent mean values on the problemdrinking and depression, and lower latent mean values on the self-esteem and life satisfaction. Depression mediated the relationships between problem drinking of elderly and life satisfaction the only in a poor elderly group. The implications and limitations of this study were discussed, and the suggestions for further studies were recommended.

Optimum Blind Control to Prevent Glare Considering Potential Time Error (잠재적 시간 오차에 따른 현휘의 발생 방지를 위한 최적 블라인드 제어)

  • Seong, Yoon-Bok
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.74-86
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    • 2012
  • For the improvement of environmental comfort in the buildings with the blind control, the objective of this study is to prevent the direct glare caused by the daylight inlet. During the process of solar profile prediction, time are significant factors that may cause error and glare during the blind control. This research proposes and evaluates the correction and control method to minimize prediction error. For the local areas with different longitude and local standard meridian, error occurred in the process of the time conversion from local standard time to apparent solar time. In order to correct error in time conversion, apparent solar time should be recalculated after adjusting the day of year and the equation of time. To solve the problems by the potential time errors, control method is suggested to divide the control sections using the calibrated fitting-curve and this method is verified through simulations. The proposed correction and control method, which considered potential time errors by loop lop leap years, could solve the problems about direct glare caused by daylight inlet on the work-plane according to the prediction errors of solar profile. And also these methods could maximize daylight inlet and solar heat gain, because the blocked area on windows could be minimized.

Rockets and Feathers Across Multi-Gasoline Products: Evidence from Error Correction Model (수송용 유류제품의 제품별 비대칭성에 관한 연구: 오차수정모형을 통한 접근)

  • Chang, Yenjae;Kim, Dae-Wook
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.495-516
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    • 2016
  • This study empirically examines how asymmetric price adjustment of the retail gas price happens differently for various oil products, such as high-grade gasoline, regular gasoline, and diesel, by employing asymmetric error correction model within weekly data set from 2010~2015. Our estimation results show that the price adjustment, across the all oil types, predicated on shifting crude oil and wholesale oil prices is asymmetric. In addition, the duration of asymmetry was shorter in high-grade gasoline case than in other oil types. This took place by rapid price adjustment of high-grade gasoline price when faced with both cost increases and decreases, in comparison with regular gasoline and diesel cases. There results were attributed by characteristics of the consumer group and a high retail-wholesale margin of high-grade gasoline.

Low flow projection considering actual evapotranspiration by climate change (기후변화에 따른 실제증발산을 고려한 갈수량 전망)

  • Kim, Eunji;Kang, Boosik;Sun, Hoyoung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.384-384
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    • 2020
  • 갈수량은 연간 355번째에 해당하는 일유량으로 연중 10일은 유지할 수 있는 유량을 의미한다. 갈수량은 하천유지유량을 결정하고 다목적댐의 이수안전도를 평가하는 기준으로 활용되는 지표로 활용되고 있으나 현재 기준으로는 과거사상에 초점을 맞추어 산정되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 수문사상의 변화로 인한 미래 극한사상에 대비한 평가기준 마련을 위하여 CMIP5의 GCM 자료를 활용한 한강수계의 소양강댐의 실제증발산량을 추정하고, 이를 고려한 갈수량을 전망하고자 한다. 실제증발산의 경우 관측자료가 부재하므로 증발산 보완관계 가설 기반의 간접계산을 통해 추정하였으며, 잠재증발산량은 FAO Penman-Monteith 공식, 습윤증발산량은 Priestley-Taylor공식을 활용하여 산정하였다. 기준기간(1974-2000년) GCM 자료의 보정은 강우 및 증발산에 대하여 정상성 분위사상법을 적용하였으며, 우리나라의 홍수기 특성을 반영하기 위하여 홍수기(6~9월) 및 비홍수기(10~5월)로 구분하였다. 소양강댐 유역에 대한 연단위 원시 GCM의 경우, 연단위 강우와 실제증발산 각각 -20.0%, +17.3%의 오차율을 보였으나, 지역오차보정 후 각각 -1.2%, -0.2%로 개선되었다. 전망기간(2011-2100년)에 대해서는 비정상성 분위사상법을 적용하였으며, 지역오차보정 과정을 거친 강우 및 실제증발산 자료는 장기유출모형의 입력자료로 활용되었다. 실제증발산을 고려한 유출량을 산정하기 위해 IHACRES 모형을 활용하였으며, 갈수량은 모형으로부터 산정된 유출 시계열에 대한 lognormal 분포의 누적확률밀도함수의 3%에 해당하는 값으로 결정하였다. 전망결과는 근미래(Near future, 2011~2040년), 중미래(Midcentury future, 2041~2070년), 먼미래(Distance future, 2071~2100년)로 나누어 제시하였으며, 미래구간별 추세를 반영한 증감율을 제시하였다.

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Estimation of deep percolation using field moisture observations and HYDRUS-1D modeling in Haean basin (해안분지의 현장 토양수분 관측과 HYDRUS-1D 모델링을 이용한 지하수 함양 추정)

  • Kim, Jeong Jik;Jeon, Woo-Hyun;Lee, Jin-Yong
    • Journal of the Geological Society of Korea
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.545-556
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    • 2018
  • This study was conducted to estimate the deep percolation using numerical modeling and field observation data based on rainfall in Haean basin. Soil moisture sensors were installed to monitoring at 30, 60 and 90 cm depths in four sites (YHS1-4) and automatic weather station was installed to around YHS3. Soil moisture and meteorological data was observed from March 25, 2017 to March 25, 2018 and May 06, 2016 to May 06, 2018, respectively. Numerical analysis was performed from June to August, 2017 using the HYDRUS-1D. Average soil moisture contents were high to generally in YHS3 for 0.300 to $0.334m^3/m^3$ and lowest in YHS1 for 0.129 to $0.265m^3/m^3$ during the soil moisture monitoring period. The results of soil moisture flow modeling showed that field observations and modeling values were similar but the peak values were larger in the modeling result. Correlation analysis between observation and modeling data showed that r, $r^2$ and RMSE were 0.88, 0.77, and 0.0096, respectively. This show high correlation and low error rate. The total deep percolation was 744.2 mm during the period of modelling at 500 cm depth. This showed that 61.3% of the precipitation amount (1,214 mm) was recharged in 2017. Deep percolation amount was high in the study area. This study is expected to provide basic data for the estimation of groundwater recharge through unsaturated zone.