• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.73-89
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• 2021

The handysize bulk carriers are capable of transporting a variety of cargo that cannot be transported by mid-large size ship, and the spot chartering market is active, and it is a market that is independent of mid-large size market, and is more risky due to market conditions and charterage variability. In this study, Granger causality test, the Impulse Response Function(IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition(FEVD) were performed using monthly time series data. As a result of Granger causality test, coal price for coke making, Japan steel plate commodity price, hot rolled steel sheet price, fleet volume and bunker price have causality to Baltic Handysize Index(BHSI) and charterage. After confirming the appropriate lag and stability of the Vector Autoregressive model(VAR), IRF and FEVD were analyzed. As a result of IRF, the three variables of coal price for coke making, hot rolled steel sheet price and bunker price were found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. Among them, the impulse of hot rolled steel sheet price was found to have the most significant effect. As a result of FEVD, the explanatory power that affects BHSI and charterage is the same in the order of hot rolled steel sheet price, coal price for coke making, bunker price, Japan steel plate price, and fleet volume. It was found that it gradually increased, affecting BHSI by 30% and charterage by 26%. In order to differentiate from previous studies and to find out the effect of short term lag, analysis was performed using monthly price data of major cargoes for Handysize bulk carriers, and meaningful results were derived that can predict monthly market conditions. This study can be helpful in predicting the short term market conditions for shipping companies that operate Handysize bulk carriers and concerned parties in the handysize chartering market.

• The Korean Journal of Coaching Psychology
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.127-170
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• 2021

This study developed a measure to measure wellness-seeking behavior in important areas of life for general adults in Korea and verified its validity. For the development of the wellness scale, 31 factors derived through literature review, expert interviews, in-depth interviews, open questionnaires 1 and 2, and 182 questions were selected as the final 10 factors and 99 questions. Through exploratory factor analysis of the results of the preliminary survey of 351 adults in Korea, 58 questions of 10 factors were derived, and some of the questions reflecting important concepts in each factor were revised, and this survey was conducted with 63 questions of 10 factors. In this survey conducted on 667 people, to verify the validity of the composition concept of this test, the entire sampling was divided into two groups, one group was subjected to exploratory factor analysis, and the other group was subjected to confirmatory factor analysis. As a result of exploratory factor analysis, 63 questions of 10 factors (work, community, family, others, economic power, self-esteem, leisure, physical health, spirituality, and self-growth) were finally derived, and confirmatory factor analysis using the structural equation model verified that the model fit criteria were met. Convergence validity was verified using the K-MHC-SF and Wellness Index for Workers to verify whether the derived wellness scale and its sub-factors actually measure wellness. As a result of analyzing the relationship between the variables and factors of the Subjective Happiness Scale and Life Scale to verify the validity related to the criteria, it was found to be a significant correlation. As a result of confirming the significance of each path through multiple regression analysis, the 'self-esteem' on the wellness scale was identified as the most important factor influencing subjective happiness and life satisfaction. Finally, discussions on this research process and results, academic significance and practical significance, limitations, and future research directions were presented.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.147-165
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• 1992

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.61-74
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• 2015

This study attempts to empirically examine the influence of entrepreneurial education in university on entrepreneurial intentions of undergraduate and graduate students as potential entrepreneur and new moderating factors on the relationship between entrepreneurial education and entrepreneurial intentions. We suggested EO(innovativeness, risk-taking propensity, proactiveness and locus of control) and environmental factors(entrepreneurial family background and resource accessibility) as new moderating factors in the relationship. For this study, the following research questions are raised : First, is there a significant difference in entrepreneurial intentions of enrolled and unenrolled students in entrepreneurial education? Second, does entrepreneurial education affect entrepreneurial intentions positively? Finally, do EO and environmental factors have moderating effects in the relationship between entrepreneurial education and entrepreneurial intentions? In order to test our research model, the current study collected data from 265 undergraduate and graduate students who are majoring in natural sciences or engineering in Seoul National Univ., Hanyang Univ., and KAIST. To investigate our research questions and hypotheses, independent-sample T-test and hierarchical regression analysis were employed. The results of empirical analysis revealed that entrepreneurial education positively related to entrepreneurial intentions and that the relationship between entrepreneurial education and entrepreneurial intentions moderated by EO and environmental factors. First, the result showed the significant difference in entrepreneurial intentions between enrolled and unenrolled students in entrepreneurial education. Entrepreneurial intentions of students who enrolled entrepreneurial education was higher than others. Second, entrepreneurial education affected the entrepreneurial intentions positively. Finally, the moderating effects of innovativeness, risk-taking propensity, proactiveness and entrepreneurial family background among investigated six moderators were significant. entrepreneurial education-entrepreneurial intentions relationship was even stronger under high innovativeness and high proactiveness. But risk-taking propensity and entrepreneurial family background decreased the effect of entrepreneurial education on entrepreneurial intentions.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.161-173
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• 2021

The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.