• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.135-157
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• 2024

In this study, we analyzed the changes in copper consumption according to copper price fluctuations and identified the domestic copper price elasticity. A total of 408 time series data from January 1989 to December 2022 were analyzed using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model with net import volume, price, and production index as variables. In addition, to identify changes in the correlation between variables over time, the dynamic relationship between variables was identified using the time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) model. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the negative price elasticity for copper is -0.1835. In addition, the interquartile range was -0.3130 ~ 0.0886, with no consistent trend over time, but mainly negative elasticity. This study can be used to quantify the expected impact of various policy proposals and changes related to minerals.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.65-81
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• 2018

This study estimated the long-run and the short-run price and income elasticity of crude oil demand by using the ARDL model in Korea. First, the long-run cointegration relationship existed between crude oil demand and price or income in the ARDL-bounds tests. Second, the long-run own price, the cross price elasticity and the income elasticity were both statistically significant elastic and sensitive in the ARDL. Third, there was autocorrelation of the residuals, but no misspecification errors and heteroscedasticity, and then the residuals showed a normal distribution. And the CUSUM & CUSUMSQ tests showed that the coefficients were stable. Fourth, the short-run own price, the cross price elasticity and the income elasticity were both statistically significant elastic and sensitive in the ARDL-RECM. The ECM with the short-run dynamics showed rapid adjustments in the long-run equilibrium of oil demand after the economic crisis. In the short-run, the sensitivity of crude oil demand to price and income changes has moved in the same direction as the long-run case. Korea, depending too much on foreign crude oil, is vulnerable to the shocks of oil prices, so rising oil prices can certainly have a negative impact on Korea's trade balance. And the elasticity of long-run oil prices may help to control and manage Korea's oil demand. The government needs to strengthen monitoring of the country's policies and market trends related to crude oil, establish strategies to customize national policies and market conditions, and strengthen active market dominance efforts through pioneering new market and diversification.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.93-103
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• 2002

우리 국민의 교통수요행태를 분석하기 위하여 준이상수요체계(almost ideal demand system) 함수형태의 집계교통수요모형을 설정하였다. 대중교통수단으로서 시내버스, 시외버스, 택시, 기차, 전철이 그리고 개인교통수단으로서 연료비가 포함되었으며, 기타재화 및 서비스에 대한 소비지출이 함께 추정되었다. 추정에 이용된 자료는 통계청의 "도시가계연보"에 수록된 '전국 도시가구 소비지출'과 "물가통계"에 수록된 '전국 도시소비자 물가'이다. 추정결과 모형의 설명력을 나타내는 수정결정계수(adjusted-$R^2$)는 대부분 0.9 내외에서 높게 나타났다. 추정계수는 총 51개중에서 25개가 5% 수준에서 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 추정된 계수값을 이용하여 가격탄력성과 소득탄력성을 구하였다. 자기가격탄력성과 소득탄력성 추정치는 조금 높기는 하나 부호와 상대적 크기가 모두 예상과 일치하고 다른 연구결과들과 유사한 범위에 있다. 연료비에 대한 소득탄력성은 1.72로 가장 높게 나타났고, 대중교통수단은 0.03~0.49 사이에서 나타나므로 교통수단이 정상재임을 의미한다. 보상수요의 교차가격탄력성은 총 15개의 교차관계에서 12개의 관계가 상식과 일치한다. 다음 연구에서는 더 많은 시계열자료를 발굴하여, 장기간의 교통수요 변화에 대한 분석을 시도할 필요가 있다. 또한 초월대수함수나 동태함수 등 다양한 형태의 수요함수를 시도할 필요가 있다. 여러가지 형태의 교통수요함수추정을 통해서 우리 현실에 적합한 교통수요모형을 발견할 수 있을 것이다. 대도시와 중소도시 등 지역별 지출자료를 발굴하여 지역특성을 반영하는 교통수요함수의 추정도 필요하다.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.257-289
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• 2002

In this study we analyse how the tobacco prices have an effect on the national health. The level of tobacco price will fluctuate its consumers demand and eventually affect the national health status. We estimate tobacco consumption function as well as households'demand system in which tobacco and health expenditure functions are included. Demand elasticities are estimated and evaluated in order to find future policies to improve the national health by controlling the national tobacco consumption There are two econometric approaches app1ied in this study. The lent tobacco demand analysis method is mm tobacco consumption function model. Using national indices of tobacco price, tobacco consumption and other related variables, tobacco consumption function is estimated. The other is micro demand system analysis by using Korean urban households expenditure data during the period of 1991 to 1999. The own price elasticity which is estimated from national tobacco demand per capita is -0.19 for all people and -0.176 for the adults over 18, which means 100% price increase will cause decease of tobacco demand at 19% and 17.6% per each The cross vice elasticity which is estimated between tobacco and health expenditure of urban households demand system is -0.2328, which implies 100% of tobacco price increase will decrease 23.28% of health expenditure. The low price elasticities imply that tobacco price increase will increase total tobacco sales volume. 100% of tobacco price increase will bring about 79% increase of total tobacco sales volume according to our scenario. Korea's tobacco demand is negatively responsive to fluctuations in its price. The health expenditure is also negatively relatedto the tobacco price fluctuation. These empirical outputs could be utilized as the basis of government's tax policy to control national tobacco consumption in the future.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.81-102
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• 2017

This study examined the income and price elasticities of tourism demand model by using the ARDL models. This paper used the ARDL & ARDL-RECM model based on the annual number of tourists arrivals, GDP and CPI including tourists from the US, Japan and China entering Korea. First, the income elasticity of the US was inelastic and insensitive necessities for long-run US tourists in the ARDL model. China's income elasticity was elastically sensitive luxuries. Second, the US and China's own price elasticities were very elastic to tourism demand in both models. Third, the US's cross price elasticity showed the relationship between inelastic positive substitutes and inelastic negative complements in China in ARDL model. The cross price elasticities of the US and China showed inelastic positive substitutes in the ARDL-RECM model. Fourth, the coefficients of the error correction term were such that the actual sign and the expected sign of the US and China coincided with the negative sign in the ARDL-RECM model. Therefore, first, it can be established in a tourist policy or tourism strategy through income elasticity. Second, we can improve the quality and differentiation of products, recognizing that Korea's tourism price is more elastic than other markets through price elasticity.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.223-242
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• 1995

본 연구는 1977년 부터 한국에서 적용된 계절 시간대별 차등요금에 대한 반응성을 분석하기 위하여 각 요금적용시간대에 대한 전력소비의 탄력성을 1987년 1월부터 1992년 12월 까지의 자료를 이용하여 초월대수 비용 함수 (Translog Cost Function)을 이용하여 추정 분석하였다. 추정결과 낮 시간대, 저녁시간대, 밤 시간대에 대한 자기가격탄력성은 산업용(을) 고압 A 수용가의 경우 각각 -0.386, 0.351, -0.114이며, 고압 B 수용가는 각각 -0.095, -0.230, -0.192이었다. 일반적으로 대규모 수용가(고압 B)는 소규모 수용가(고압 A)에 비해 계시별 요금제에 대한 반응성이 더 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 한편 교차가격 탄력성 산출결과 상호 시간대간에 전력사용량의 대체성이 존재함을 알 수 있다. 즉, 산업용(을) 고압 A 수용가는 낮시간대와 저녁시간대간에 강한 대체성이 나타났으며, 산업용(을) 고압 B 수용가는 저녁시간대와 밤시간대간에 대체성이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 또한 계시별 요금제 구조의 변화에 따른 수용가의 반응성을 분석하기 위해 표본기간을 1987년 1월 부터 1989년 12월 까지(기간 I)와 1990년 1월 부터 1992년 12월 까지 (기간 II)로 분리하여 탄력성을 추정하였다. 기간 I에서는 계시별 요금제에 대한 수용가의 반응성이 아주 낮았으나, 기간 II에서는 현저하게 높아졌다. 이러한 결과로 보아 기간 II에서 시행된 1991. 6의 요금구조 개편은 수용가의 반응성을 증가시키는데 크게 기여하였으며, 이에 따라 계절 시간대별 차등 요금제가 부하관리를 위한 효율적인 방법임을 알 수 있었다.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.1-29
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• 2008

The goal of this study is to analyze the effects of the second energy tax reform of the transportation sector in Korea. For this purpose, we estimated the elasticities of energy demand(for gasoline, diesel and LPG) by using the ARDL(Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag) Model during the period of 1997 and 2005. We have the empirical results that the demand for diesel would decrease as much as of 382 million barrel per year and the demand for LPG would increase as much as of 20 million barrel per year since 2007. The second energy tax reform would also result in the decrease of 27,346 ton of air pollutants and 0.96 million ton of carbon dioxide per year. This shows that the second energy tax reform would have achieved its own policy goals by reducing energy demand and improving the quality of environment.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.167-181
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• 2016

In Korea, the transportation & telecommunication service industry is composed of public sector entities, such as public transportation and the postal service, and private sector entities. The public sector may be regulated in terms of pricing or is guaranteed a normal profit. Markup can be a subject for regulation. This paper is to set up the markup equation, estimate the industrial markup, and analyze the markup determinants by estimating the factor price elasticities of markup in the Transportation & Telecommunication industry. The factor price elasticities of markup were estimated to be -0.07 in wage rate, -0.45 in import price index, and -0.13 in interest rates. We suggest that import price and interest rate are major factors to be considered first of all in regulating the transportation & telecommunication industry.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.72-80
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• 2014

This study is to estimate a demand of coffee in Korea. And based on assumed data, this study is to investigate price elasticity, income elasticity and cross-price elasticity of coffee demand. The data used in this study is the household income and expenditure survey micro data (2003~2012) provided by the National Statistical Office. And LA/AIDS model and SUR method were utilized in order to forecast coffee demand. As a result, price elasticity and income elasticity are found to be correspond with economic theory as they were assumed to -0.259, 0.455 respectively. Meanwhile, it indicated characteristic of essential good by showing negative (-) income odds ratio estimate. When it comes to cross-price elasticity of coffee and cigarette, it was found to be a complementary relation as its cross-price elasticity was assumed to -0.121. Besides, it was found that male consume more coffee than female, while people in their age of 50s consumes mostly. In conclusion, this study suggests necessity of reconsidering coffee as important goods when Consumer Price Stabilization Policy is determined, as coffee shows characteristic of essential goods which is inelastic.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.57-81
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• 2010

Since the Republic of Korea is highly dependent on fossil fuels despite high oil prices, it urgently needs to renew its economic and social system to cut carbon emissions and achieve green growth. Therefore, reforming or eliminating subsidies related to the use of fossil fuels is a timely and oppropriate policy recommendation for Korea. It would be a win-win deal for Korean society as it would not only reduce the use of environmentally harmful fossil fuels but also enhance economic efficiency. In particular, cross-subsidies for industrial, agricultural and night thermal-storage power services make up more than 80 percent of all subsidies provided to the entire electric power industry sector of Korea. Of these cross-subsidies, this paper analyzes the electricity subsidy for industries, which takes up the largest share (about KRW 1.6583 trillion yearly), among the environmentally harmful subsidies in the electric power sector. Thus, the paper focuses on the analysis of ripple effect anticipated when this is reformed. To examine the effects of this subsidy reform, price elasticities were estimated using the ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) model and quarterly data from 1990 to 2007. The main results of this study show that 1) annual energy demand for electric power in the industrial sector would drop by 12,475,930MWh and 2) $CO_2$ emissions would plummet by 2,644,897 tons per year if the subsidy were reformed. We can deduct from this that the abolition of environmentally harmful subsidies in the electric power sector in the Republic of Korea would considerably contribute to $CO_2$ emissions abatement in the country.