Environmental and Resource Economics Review (자원ㆍ환경경제연구)

Korean Resource Economics Association (한국자원경제학회)
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Analysis of the Korean Copper Price Elasticity using Time-Varying Model

시변 모형을 이용한 국내 구리 가격탄력성 분석

  • Kangho Kim (Department of Earth Resources and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, Korea Mine Rehabilitation and Mineral Resources Corporation (KOMIR)) ;
  • Jinsoo Kim (Department of Earth Resources and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University)
  • 김강호 (한양대학교 자원환경공학과, 한국광해광업공단) ;
  • 김진수 (한양대학교 자원환경공학과)
  • Received : 2024.01.29
  • Accepted : 2024.04.10
  • Published : 2024.06.30
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Abstract

In this study, we analyzed the changes in copper consumption according to copper price fluctuations and identified the domestic copper price elasticity. A total of 408 time series data from January 1989 to December 2022 were analyzed using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model with net import volume, price, and production index as variables. In addition, to identify changes in the correlation between variables over time, the dynamic relationship between variables was identified using the time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) model. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the negative price elasticity for copper is -0.1835. In addition, the interquartile range was -0.3130 ~ 0.0886, with no consistent trend over time, but mainly negative elasticity. This study can be used to quantify the expected impact of various policy proposals and changes related to minerals.

본 연구에서는 국제 구리 가격 변동에 따른 국내 수요 변화를 분석하여 국내 구리(전기동)의 가격탄력성을 분석하였다. 이를 위해 구리의 순 수입량, 가격, 생산지수를 변수로 1989년 1월부터 2022년 12월까지 총 408개의 시계열 자료에 대해 벡터자기회귀(Vector autoregressive, VAR) 모형을 구성하고, 시간의 흐름에 따른 변수 간의 상관관계 변화를 파악하고자 시변 모형(Time Varying VAR)을 사용하여 변수 간의 동적 관계를 분석하였다. 분석 결과 국내 구리의 가격탄력성은 -0.1835로 음의 가격탄력성이 존재함을 확인하였고, 사분위수 범위는 -0.3130 ~ 0.0886으로 시간의 흐름에 따라 일관성 있는 추세는 없지만 주로 음의 탄력성을 띠면서 탄력성이 변화하는 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 비축을 포함한 광물자원 관련 정책 수립 시 파생되는 기대효과를 정량화하여 제시하는 데 활용할 수 있다.

Keywords

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