• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.43-50
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• 2019

The aviation demand forecast field has been actively studied along with the recent growth of the aviation market. In this study, the demand for domestic passenger demand and freight demand was estimated through cross-validation method. As a result, passenger demand is influenced by private consumption growth rate, oil price, and exchange rate. Freight demand is affected by GDP per capita, private consumption growth rate, and oil price. In particular, passenger demand is characterized by temporary external shocks, and freight demand is more affected by economic variables than temporary shocks.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.98-105
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• 2019

In the past 30 years, our aviation demand has been growing continuously. As such, the importance of the demand forecasting field is increasing. In this study, the factors influencing Korea's international air demand were selected, and the international air demand was analyzed, forecasted and reviewed through OLS multiple regression analysis. As a result, passenger demand was affected by GDP per capita, oil price and exchange rate, while cargo demand was affected by GDP per capita and private consumption growth rate. In particular, passenger demand was analyzed to be sensitive to temporary external shocks, and cargo demand was more affected by economic variables than temporary external shocks. Demand forecasting, OLS multiple regression analysis, passenger demand, cargo demand, transient external shocks, economic variables.