• Title/Summary/Keyword: 일사예측

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Development of Photovoltaic Output Power Prediction System using OR-AND Structured Fuzzy Neural Networks (OR-AND 구조의 퍼지 뉴럴 네트워크를 이용한 태양광 발전 출력 예측 시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Haemaro;Han, Chang-Wook;Lee, Don-Kyu
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.334-337
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    • 2019
  • In response to the increasing demand for energy, research and development of next-generation energy is actively carried out around the world to replace fossil fuels. Among them, the specific gravity of solar power generation systems using infinity and pollution-free solar energy is increasing. However, solar power generation is so different from solar energy that it is difficult to provide stable power and the power production itself depends on the solar energy by region. To solve these problems in this paper, we have collected meteorological data such as actual regional solar irradiance, precipitation, temperature and humidity, and proposed a solar power output prediction system using logic-based fuzzy Neural Network.

Prediction and Analysis of Photovoltaic Modules's Output using MATLAB (MATLAB을 이용한 태양광 모듈의 출력 예측 및 해석)

  • Heo, Yun-Seok;Kim, Jae-Gyu;Kim, Ji-Man;Kwon, Bo-Min;Song, Han-Jung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.8
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    • pp.2963-2967
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we have predicted and analyzed the MSX 60 photovoltaic module's output according to the temperature and solar radiation conditions by MATLAB program. 2 and 3-dimensional I-V curves of the PV module considered temperature, series resistance and solar radiation variation. are shown. Also, calculated PV's electrical parameters are Isc = 3.8 A, Voc = 21 V, Pmax = 60 W. Compared with the actual photovoltaic module's data, these simulated results agreed well with within the manufacturer's maximum error range 3%.

Estimating Solar Radiation for Arbitrary Areas Using Empirical Forecasting Models (경험적 예측모형을 통한 임의의 지점의 일사예측)

  • Jo, D.K.;Chun, I.S.;Lee, T.K.;Auh, C.M.
    • Solar Energy
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.21-30
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    • 2000
  • It is necessary to estimate the regression coefficients in order to predict the monthly mean daily global radiation on a horizontal surface. Therefore many different equations have proposed to evaluate them for certain areas. In this work, a new correlation has been made to predict the solar radiation for any area over Korea by estimating the regression coefficients taking into account percentage of possible sunshine, and cloud cover. Particularly, the multiple linear regression model proposed shows reliable results for estimating the global radiation with average deviation of -1 to 3 % from the measured values.

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Optimum MPPT Control Period for PV Panel based on Real Insolation Profile (실제 일사프로파일에 근거한 PV 패널의 최적 MPPT 제어주기)

  • Ryu, Danbi;Kim, Yong-Jung;Jeong, Woo-Yong;Kim, Hyosung
    • Proceedings of the KIPE Conference
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    • 2018.07a
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    • pp.123-125
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    • 2018
  • 태양광발전시스템은 낮은 효율의 PV 패널을 사용하여 최대의 전력을 생산하기 위해 PV 패널의 최대전력점에서 운전하는 MPPT(Maximum Power Point Tracking) 제어가 반드시 필요하다. 기존의 MPPT 알고리즘은 대부분 경사법에 기초하고 있으며 그 중 대표적인 방법이 P&O(Perturb and Observe) 알고리즘이다. P&O 알고리즘의 MPPT 성능을 좌우하는 두 가지 인수는 MPPT 제어주기와 변량전압의 크기이다. MPPT 제어기의 빠른 동특성과 극대화된 효율을 위한 최적의 MPPT 제어주기와 변량전압의 크기를 결정하기 위해서는 실제 날씨 환경에서 다양한 일사량 프로파일 패턴에 대한 MPPT 제어기의 성능분석이 필수적이다. 본 논문에서는 대한민국 중부지역의 전형적인 맑은 날씨와 흐린 날씨에서 실제 일사량을 측정하고, 취득한 일사량데이터를 기초로 저자가 개발한 다이오드 등가모델을 적용하여 시뮬레이션을 수행하였다. 이를 기반으로 MPPT 제어주기의 설정값에 따른 PV 패널의 전력생산량을 예측하여 MPPT 목표 효율을 극대화할 수 있는 최적의 MPPT 제어주기를 제시한다.

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A Temperature Predicting Method for Thermal Behaviour Analysis of Curved Steel Box Girder Bridges (곡선 강박스거더교의 온도거동 분석을 위한 온도분포 예측기법에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Kwang-Il;Won, Jeong-Hun;Kim, Sang-Hyo;Lu, Yung-Chien
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.1A
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    • pp.105-113
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    • 2008
  • Solar radiation induces non-uniform temperature distribution in the bridge structure depending on the shape of the structure and shadows cast on it. Especially in the case of curved steel box girder bridges, non-uniform temperature distribution caused by solar radiation may lead to unusual load effects enough to damage the support or even topple the whole curved bridge structure if not designed properly. At present, it is very difficult to design bridges in relation to solar radiation because it is not known exactly how varying temperature distribution affects bridges; at least not specific enough for adoption in design. Standard regulations related to this matter are likewise not complete. In this study, the thermal behavior of curved steel box girder bridges is analyzed while taking the solar radiation effect into consideration. For the analysis, a method of predicting the 3-dimensional temperature distribution of curved bridges was developed. It uses a theoretical solar radiation energy equation together with a commercial FEM program. The behavior of the curved steel box girder bridges was examined using the developed method, while taking into consideration the diverse range of bridge azimuth angles and radii. This study also provides reference data for the thermal design of curved steel box girder bridges under solar radiation, which can be used to develop design guidelines.

Real-time Energy Demand Prediction Method Using Weather Forecasting Data and Solar Model (기상 예보 데이터와 일사 예측 모델식을 활용한 실시간 에너지 수요예측)

  • Kwak, Young-Hoon;Cheon, Se-Hwan;Jang, Cheol-Yong;Huh, Jung-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.310-316
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    • 2013
  • This study was designed to investigate a method for short-term, real-time energy demand prediction, to cope with changing loads for the effective operation and management of buildings. Through a case study, a novel methodology for real-time energy demand prediction with the use of weather forecasting data was suggested. To perform the input and output operations of weather data, and to calculate solar radiation and EnergyPlus, the BCVTB (Building Control Virtual Test Bed) was designed. Through the BCVTB, energy demand prediction for the next 24 hours was carried out, based on 4 real-time weather data and 2 solar radiation calculations. The weather parameters used in a model equation to calculate solar radiation were sourced from the weather data of the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). Depending on the local weather forecast data, the results showed their corresponding predicted values. Thus, this methodology was successfully applicable to anywhere that local weather forecast data is available.

Solar Irradiance Estimation in Korea by Using Modified Heliosat-II Method and COMS-MI Imagery (수정된 Heliosat-II 방법과 COMS-MI 위성 영상을 이용한 한반도 일사량 추정)

  • Won Seok, Choi;Ah Ram, Song;Il, Kim Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.463-472
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    • 2015
  • Solar radiation data are important data that can be used as basic research data in diverse areas. In particular, solar radiation data are essential for diverse studies that have been recently conducted in South Korea including those for new and renewable energy resource map making and crop yield forecasting. So purpose of this study is modification of Heliosat-II method to estimate solar irradiance in Korea by using COMS-MI imagery. For this purpose, in this study, errors appearing in ground albedo images were corrected through linear transformation. And method of producing background albedo map which is used in Heliosat-II method is modified to get more finely tuned one. Through the study, ground albedo correction could be successfully performed and background albedo maps could be successfully derived. Lastly, In this study, solar irradiance was estimated by using modified Heliostat-II method. And it was compared with actually measured values to verify the accuracy of the methods. Accuracy of estimated solar irradiance was 30.8% RMSE(%). And this accuracy level means that solar irradiance was estimated on 10% higher level than previous Heliosat-II method.

Solar Access and Shading Analysis of Traditional Building Using a Solar Trajectory Meter (태양 궤적 측정기를 이용한 전통 건축물 음영 분석)

  • Kim, Myoung Nam;Park, Ji Hee
    • Journal of Conservation Science
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.90-100
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    • 2021
  • Outdoor cultural buildings and their accessories receive different amounts of solar radiation depending on their location's latitude, azimuth, and tilt. Shading is also affected by the surrounding terrain and objects, necessitating individual and quantitative shading analysis. In July 2019, this study conducted a shading analysis on the tops, midpoints, and bottoms of wooden pillars in the azimuth of Cheongpunggak, a traditional building in South Korea's National Research Institute of Cultural Heritage. The shading analysis found that the solar access/shade predicted by the solar trajectory meter was 30 minutes slower than measured in the field. The highest solar access and solar radiation levels came from the south, followed by the west, east, and north. The pillars' bases received the highest solar access and solar radiation, followed by their midpoints and tops. Solar access was high at tilt 90°, but solar radiation was high at tilt 0°, due to the light-collection efficiency and the irradiance. Shading on the pillars' tops was caused by the roof eaves, while shading on the midpoints and bases were affected by the surrounding pillars, topography, and other objects. Simultaneous solar access at the tops, midpoints, and bottoms was possible for 365 days for the northwest, west, and southwest pillars but only from October to March for the south and southeast pillars.

Assessment of the Angstrom-Prescott Coefficients for Estimation of Solar Radiation in Korea (국내 일사량 추정을 위한 Angstrom-Prescott계수의 평가)

  • Hyun, Shinwoo;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.221-232
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    • 2016
  • Models to estimate solar radiation have been used because solar radiation is measured at a smaller number of weather stations than other variables including temperature and rainfall. For example, solar radiation has been estimated using the Angstrom-Prescott (AP) model that depends on two coefficients obtained empirically at a specific site ($AP_{Choi}$) or for a climate zone ($AP_{Frere}$). The objective of this study was to identify the coefficients of the AP model for reliable estimation of solar radiation under a wide range of spatial and temporal conditions. A global optimization was performed for a range of AP coefficients to identify the values of $AP_{max}$ that resulted in the greatest degree of agreement at each of 20 sites for a given month during 30 years. The degree of agreement was assessed using the value of Concordance Correlation Coefficient (CCC). When $AP_{Frere}$ was used to estimate solar radiation, the values of CCC were relatively high for conditions under which crop growth simulation would be performed, e.g., at rural sites during summer. The statistics for $AP_{Frere}$ were greater than those for $AP_{Choi}$ although $AP_{Frere}$ had the smaller statistics than $AP_{max}$ did. The variation of CCC values was small over a wide range of AP coefficients when those statistics were summarized by site. $AP_{Frere}$ was included in each range of AP coefficients that resulted in reasonable accuracy of solar radiation estimates by site, year, and month. These results suggested that $AP_{Frere}$ would be useful to provide estimates of solar radiation as an input to crop models in Korea. Further studies would be merited to examine feasibility of using $AP_{Frere}$ to obtain gridded estimates of solar radiation at a high spatial resolution under a complex terrain in Korea.

Study on the Prediction of short-term Algal Bloom in Juksan weir Using the Model Tree (모델트리를 활용한 죽산보 단기조류예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Bo-Mi;Yi, Hye-Suk;Chong, Sun-A;Joo, Yong-Eun;Kim, Ho-Joon;Choi, Kwang-Soon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.450-450
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    • 2018
  • 최근 기후변화와 수온상승으로 인한 녹조발생이 빈번하게 나타나며, 녹조발생에 관한 관심은 꾸준히 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 본 연구는 효율적인 녹조관리를 위하여 모델트리를 활용하여 클로로필-a 단기조류예측 기법을 개발하였다. 대상지역으로 영산강수계의 죽산보를 선정하였으며, 2013년 1월부터 2016년 12월까지 나주 수질자동측정망의 일 단위자료와 동일기간 광주 기상청의 일별 기상자료를 이용하였다. 상관 분석을 통해 T-N, T-P, N/Pratio와 클로로필-a, 수온, 일사량, 강수량을 독립변수로, 단기(t+1일, t+3일, t+5일, t+7일) 클로로필-a를 종속변수로 선정하여 단기조류예측기법을 개발하였다. 수집한 자료의 데이터세트는 격일 간격으로 Training, Testing 기간으로 구분하여 적용한 결과, 상관계수는 1일 예측 시, Training 기간에 0.89, Testing 기간에 0.91, 3일 예측 시, Training 기간에 0.74, Testing 기간에 0.68, 5일 예측 시, Training 기간에 0.70, Testing 기간에 0.66, 7일 예측 시, Training 기간에 0.63, Testing 기간에 0.62로 나타났다. RMSE(Root Mean Square Error)는 1일 예측 시, Training 기간에 13.96, Testing 기간에 12.22, 3일 예측 시, Training 기간에 20.03, Testing 기간에 22.14, 5일 예측 시, Training 기간에 21.32, Testing 기간에 22.57, 7일 예측 시, Training 기간에 23.52, Testing 기간에 23.45로 나타났다. 예측주기에 따라 모델트리와 회귀식에서 활용한 독립변수는 1일 예측 시, 모델트리는 N/Pratio, 클로로필-a, 회귀식은 클로로필-a로 다르게 나타났다. 반면, 3일, 5일, 7일 예측 시, 모델트리와 회귀식에 활용된 변수는 같게 나타났다. 클로로필-a, 수온, 일사량은 5일 예측 시 활용된 변수로, 3일 예측 시에는 기상항목인 강수량이, 7일 예측 시에는 수질항목인 T-N, N/Pratio가 추가되었다. 특히 1일 예측 시 일 때, 높은 예측정도와 활용된 변수의 수가 적게 나타나는 것을 확인하였으며, 예측기간이 길어질수록 예측의 정확성이 낮아지고, 활용된 변수의 수가 많아지는 것을 확인하였다. 향후 적정한 예측기간을 판단하고 예측가능성을 높이기 위해서는 지속적인 자료취득 및 개선이 필요하며, 이를 바탕으로 적절한 단기조류예측이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

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