• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.55-74
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• 1991

토지문제(土地問題)의 심각성에 대한 사회적(社會的) 합의(合意)에도 불구하고 정부의 개입으로 시정되어야 할 구체적인 정책목표(政策目標)가 무엇인가에 대한 검토(檢討)는 부족한 설정이며, 이를 위해 지가상승(地價上昇)의 원인과 결과에 대한 실증분석(實證分析)을 시도한 예도 찾아보기 힘들다. 본고는 지가상승률(地價上昇率)과 일단의 거시경제변수(巨視經濟變數) 변화율(變化率) 사이에 Granger 개념의 인과관계(因果關係)가 존재하는가를 검증하고 그 현실적인 의미를 살펴보고 있다. 지가상승추세(地價上昇趨勢)를 변화시킬 수 있는 거시변수(巨視變數)는 통화량(通貨量), 민간건설생산(民間建設生産), 주가지수(株價指數)의 변화 등이며, 지가상승이 영향을 미치는 변수(變數)들은 주가지수(株價指數), 실질생산(實質生産) 및 민간건설생산(民間建設生産)의 변화(變化), 사채이자율(私債利子率)로 나타났다. 여기서 포착된 경험적 증거들은 인과관계(因果關係)의 작동경로를 설명하는 이론과 결합되어 발전되어야 할 것이나 우리의 분석결과로부터도 몇가지 정책적(政策的) 시사점(示唆點)을 끌어 낼 수 있다. 무엇보다도, 지가상승(地價上昇)을 거시경제현상(巨視經濟現像)으로 파악하는 것이 필요하며, 거시경제환경이 불안정한 경우 토지조세(土地租稅)와 같은 미시적(微視的) 정책수단(政策手段)이 지가안정 등의 정책목표(政策目標)를 달성하는 데는 뚜렷한 한계가 있다는 것이다. 지가상승(地價上昇)이 물가상승(物價上昇)을 가속화한다는 것도 중요한 점인데 통화긴축(通貨緊縮)과 같은 정책수단이 물가(物價)와 지가(地價)를 모두 안정시킬 수 있다는 점은 다행한 일이다. 또한, 건설생산액(建設生産額) 변화와 지가상승(地價上昇)간의 관계는 적극적인 개발투자(開發投資)가 장기적인 지가안정(地價安定)에도 도움을 준다는 쪽이므로 사회간접자본(社會間接資本)의 확충(擴充), 민간건설(民間建設)의 확대(擴大)가 지속적으로 이루어지도록 해야 할 것이다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.2 s.73
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• pp.77-86
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• 2004

In this study, we applied the Bayesian Network for the case of the mode choice models using the Seoul metropolitan area's house trip survey Data. Sex and age were used lot the independent variables for the explanation or the mode choice, and the relationships between the mode choice and the travellers' social characteristics were identified by the Bayesian Network. Furthermore, trip and mode's characteristics such as time and fare were also used for independent variables and the mode choice models were developed. It was found that the Bayesian Network were useful tool to overcome the problems which were in the traditional mode choice models. In particular, the various transport policies could be evaluated in the very short time by the established relation-ships. It is expected that the Bayesian Network will be utilized as the important tools for the transport analysis.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.655-672
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• 2007

The purpose of this study was to investigate information sources and types of reasoning that non-astronomy major undergraduate students used to build their mental models on the mechanism of the Moon craters formation. In-depth interview was used to collect qualitative data, and the questions for the interview were developed through an analytical induction method. We interviewed four students individually by using Seidman's interview step. The findings revealed that the participants built nonscientific mental models, and yet they held a consistent explanatory framework. The students explained that the crater was made by the fall of a meteorite. They all suggested a similar shape of meteorite even though their drawings about the shape of craters and its related to variables were different from one another. The information sources that the participants used fur their explanatory frameworks were varied, i.e., daily experiences, subject knowledges, and intuition. In addition, they used causal reasoning, intuitional reasoning, knowledge based reasoning, and analogical reasoning.

• Journal of Industrial Convergence
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• v.20 no.9
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• pp.119-129
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• 2022

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between self-management, stress coping, and physical self-concept of health exercise participants. To this end, a total of 274 questionnaire results were obtained by visiting 12 fitness center in the metropolitan area that is running a health exercise program. This was analyzed through the SPSS program, and the following results were obtained. It showed a significant explanatory power in the relationship between self-management and stress coping of health exercise participants. In addition, it also showed significant explanatory power in the relationship between self-management and physical self-concept. Finally, it showed significant explanatory power in the relationship between stress coping and physical self-concept. Through this study, it was found that there was a significant causal relationship between self-management, stress coping, and physical self-concept of healthy exercise participants. In follow-up studies, an in-depth analysis of self-management is required through the causal relationship with environmental factors related to self-management.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.161-173
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• 2021

The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

• Korean Journal of Logic
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.1-26
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• 2011

This essay attempts to evaluate the pessimistic induction within the case of the historical development of space-time theories, which are claimed to undergo a radical ontological change providing evidence for the pessimistic induction. In my view, this claim misleads us to see the discontinuity of the structure of classical and relativistic space-time by means of a doubtful interpretation of space-time theories, which holds that space-time causally explains the phenomena of motions.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.382-399
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to identify the structural relationship between service experience, corporate image, service trust, affective commitment and service loyalty in leisure service environment, and explain the causal role of corporate image, service trust and affective commitment. To this end, hypothesis was verified by structural equation model analysis using SPSS 23.0 and AMOS 20.0 statistical package. The result of the study as follows: First, service experience influenced corporate image and service trust but not affective commitment. Second, corporate image influenced service trust and service loyalty but not affective commitment. Third, service trust influenced affective commitment and service loyalty, Finally, affective commitment affected service loyalty. Therefore, service providers should raise corporate image and build the service loyalty by following the user to experience excellent service in a cognitive and affective aspects. Also, by motivating the customer to have affective commitment to the service trust, You need to plan and implement a marketing strategy that can increase loyalty.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.335-346
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationship between extroversion, cultural self-efficacy, life satisfaction, and stress of participants in culture and arts leisure activities, focusing on persistent social dance participants. The first results showed that extroversion of social dancing participants had a positive effect on cultural self-efficacy. Second, extroversion has a statistically positive effect on life satisfaction. Third, extroversion did not affect stress. Fourth, cultural self-efficacy had a statistically positive effect on life satisfaction. Fifth, cultural self-efficacy had a positive effect on stress. Sixth, life satisfaction had a negative effect on stress. At last, cultural self-efficacy and life satisfaction had negative mediator effect on the relation of extroversion and stress. As a result of this study, it was confirmed that extroversion, cultural self-efficacy, and life satisfaction were significant factors in explaining stress.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.65 no.2
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• pp.203-230
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• 2013

The present study aimed to analyze possible causal relationship between drinking problem and depression. In addition, The study examined if poverty status transition is associated with the causal relationship between drinking problem and depression. The study sample consisted of 3,976 adults who have participated in both the first and the second wave survey of the Korea Welfare Panel Study. The causality between drinking problem and depression was analyzed using Latent Difference Scores (LDS) model, which was established in McArdle & Hanagami (2001). Furthermore, it was examined if poverty status transition (represented by four subgroups: poverty-sustained group, poverty-escaping group, non-poverty-sustained group, poverty beginning group) would influence the causal relationship between drinking problem and depression. The major findings are as follows. The result of a LDS model analysis using the entire sample shows that depression at the first wave predicts significantly the change of drinking problem between the first wave and the second wave and also drinking problem at the first wave predicts significantly the change of depression between the first wave and the second wave, which can be interpreted as there is reciprocal causal relationship between depression and drinking problem. In poverty status transition subgroup analyses, the reciprocal causal relationship between depression and drinking problem is held in the poverty-sustained group while depression is a cause of drinking problem both in the poverty beginning group and in the non-poverty-sustained group. However, there is no significant causal relationship between depression and drinking problem in the poverty-escaping group. All these findings indicate that the direction of causality between depression and drinking problem can be varied according the poverty status change, which provides a comprehensive explanation to inconsistent research findings from previous cross-section studies of the relationship between depression and drinking problem.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.89-101
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• 1984

오늘날 교통계획분야에서 개별적, 행태론적 선택모형의 사용이 급격히 일반화 되어 가고 있는 추세를 보이고 있다. 이는 종래의 집합적 모형에 비하여, 구조적으로 경제학에서 말하는 이성적 선택행위를 보다 잘 설명하고 있어, 선택행위의 인과관계를 나타낸다고 보여 지기 때문이다. 그러나 이들 모형이 주어진 선택범위내에서의 선택만을 다루고 있어, 선택범 위를 결정하는데 임의성이 내재되어 있을 뿐만 아니라, 선택대상이 많은 경우에는 곤란하다 는 것이 문제점으로 지적되고 있다. 본 논문에서는, 선택행위에 관한 경제학적, 심리학적 이 론에 근거하여 비교적 실용적인 선택범위결정과정을 개발하여 기존의 개별적, 행태론적 모 형과 복합적으로 활용할수 있는 방안을 제시하였다.