• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.79-96
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• 2012

As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.21-44
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• 2018

In recent years, the rapid development of internet technology and the popularization of smart devices have resulted in massive amounts of text data. Those text data were produced and distributed through various media platforms such as World Wide Web, Internet news feeds, microblog, and social media. However, this enormous amount of easily obtained information is lack of organization. Therefore, this problem has raised the interest of many researchers in order to manage this huge amount of information. Further, this problem also required professionals that are capable of classifying relevant information and hence text classification is introduced. Text classification is a challenging task in modern data analysis, which it needs to assign a text document into one or more predefined categories or classes. In text classification field, there are different kinds of techniques available such as K-Nearest Neighbor, Naïve Bayes Algorithm, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, and Artificial Neural Network. However, while dealing with huge amount of text data, model performance and accuracy becomes a challenge. According to the type of words used in the corpus and type of features created for classification, the performance of a text classification model can be varied. Most of the attempts are been made based on proposing a new algorithm or modifying an existing algorithm. This kind of research can be said already reached their certain limitations for further improvements. In this study, aside from proposing a new algorithm or modifying the algorithm, we focus on searching a way to modify the use of data. It is widely known that classifier performance is influenced by the quality of training data upon which this classifier is built. The real world datasets in most of the time contain noise, or in other words noisy data, these can actually affect the decision made by the classifiers built from these data. In this study, we consider that the data from different domains, which is heterogeneous data might have the characteristics of noise which can be utilized in the classification process. In order to build the classifier, machine learning algorithm is performed based on the assumption that the characteristics of training data and target data are the same or very similar to each other. However, in the case of unstructured data such as text, the features are determined according to the vocabularies included in the document. If the viewpoints of the learning data and target data are different, the features may be appearing different between these two data. In this study, we attempt to improve the classification accuracy by strengthening the robustness of the document classifier through artificially injecting the noise into the process of constructing the document classifier. With data coming from various kind of sources, these data are likely formatted differently. These cause difficulties for traditional machine learning algorithms because they are not developed to recognize different type of data representation at one time and to put them together in same generalization. Therefore, in order to utilize heterogeneous data in the learning process of document classifier, we apply semi-supervised learning in our study. However, unlabeled data might have the possibility to degrade the performance of the document classifier. Therefore, we further proposed a method called Rule Selection-Based Ensemble Semi-Supervised Learning Algorithm (RSESLA) to select only the documents that contributing to the accuracy improvement of the classifier. RSESLA creates multiple views by manipulating the features using different types of classification models and different types of heterogeneous data. The most confident classification rules will be selected and applied for the final decision making. In this paper, three different types of real-world data sources were used, which are news, twitter and blogs.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.145-159
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• 2014

This study is to evaluate the future climate change impact on turbidity water and eutrophication for Chungju Lake by using CE-QUAL-W2 reservoir water quality model coupled with SWAT watershed model. The SWAT was calibrated and validated using 11 years (2000~2010) daily streamflow data at three locations and monthly stream water quality data at two locations. The CE-QUAL-W2 was calibrated and validated for 2 years (2008 and 2010) water temperature, suspended solid, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and Chl-a. For the future assessment, the SWAT results were used as boundary conditions for CE-QUAL-W2 model run. To evaluate the future water quality variation in reservoir, the climate data predicted by MM5 RCM(Regional Climate Model) of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B for three periods (2013~2040, 2041~2070 and 2071~2100) were downscaled by Artificial Neural Networks method to consider Typhoon effect. The RCM temperature and precipitation outputs and historical records were used to generate pollutants loading from the watershed. By the future temperature increase, the lake water temperature showed $0.5^{\circ}C$ increase in shallow depth while $-0.9^{\circ}C$ in deep depth. The future annual maximum sediment concentration into the lake from the watershed showed 17% increase in wet years. The future lake residence time above 10 mg/L suspended solids (SS) showed increases of 6 and 17 days in wet and dry years respectively comparing with normal year. The SS occupying rate of the lake also showed increases of 24% and 26% in both wet and dry year respectively. In summary, the future lake turbidity showed longer lasting with high concentration comparing with present behavior. Under the future lake environment by the watershed and within lake, the future maximum Chl-a concentration showed increases of 19 % in wet year and 3% in dry year respectively.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.155-166
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of self-efficacy of SMEs' organization members on job engagement and job performance, and to analyze the difference between gender and marital status by applying SEM-ANN analysis. To accomplish the study purpose, 285 valid samples were collected from 400 SMEs' organization members and analyzed. In this study, self - efficacy consisted of three sub-dimensions: self-confidence, self-regulation efficacy, and task difficulty preference. As a result of the analysis, self - efficacy such as self-confidence, self-regulation efficacy, and task difficulty preference had a positive direct effect on job engagement. In addition, self-efficacy and self-control efficacy have a positive effect on job performance, but the preference of task difficulty has no significant effect. In addition, job engagement has a positive(+) effect on job performance, and has a mediating role in the relationship between self-efficacy and job performance. Also, married males preferred self-regulation efficacy, while females preferred self-regulation and self-control efficacy regardless of marital status. The purpose of this study is to present the framework of self-efficacy-job engagement-job performance of SMEs by measuring the self-efficacy related researches mainly in education and service industries, and is meaningful that companies can help to find the basis of management of organization members by gender and marital status of organization members. In addition, the SEM-ANN analysis process of this study is different in that it explains the nonlinear (nonobservative) relationship that can analyze the influence or the combination of the reference variables in the linear (compensatory) relation using the SEM.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.1-21
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• 2020

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, various techniques have been developed to extract meaningful information from unstructured text data which constitutes a large portion of big data. Over the past decades, text mining technologies have been utilized in various industries for practical applications. In the field of business intelligence, it has been employed to discover new market and/or technology opportunities and support rational decision making of business participants. The market information such as market size, market growth rate, and market share is essential for setting companies' business strategies. There has been a continuous demand in various fields for specific product level-market information. However, the information has been generally provided at industry level or broad categories based on classification standards, making it difficult to obtain specific and proper information. In this regard, we propose a new methodology that can estimate the market sizes of product groups at more detailed levels than that of previously offered. We applied Word2Vec algorithm, a neural network based semantic word embedding model, to enable automatic market size estimation from individual companies' product information in a bottom-up manner. The overall process is as follows: First, the data related to product information is collected, refined, and restructured into suitable form for applying Word2Vec model. Next, the preprocessed data is embedded into vector space by Word2Vec and then the product groups are derived by extracting similar products names based on cosine similarity calculation. Finally, the sales data on the extracted products is summated to estimate the market size of the product groups. As an experimental data, text data of product names from Statistics Korea's microdata (345,103 cases) were mapped in multidimensional vector space by Word2Vec training. We performed parameters optimization for training and then applied vector dimension of 300 and window size of 15 as optimized parameters for further experiments. We employed index words of Korean Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) as a product name dataset to more efficiently cluster product groups. The product names which are similar to KSIC indexes were extracted based on cosine similarity. The market size of extracted products as one product category was calculated from individual companies' sales data. The market sizes of 11,654 specific product lines were automatically estimated by the proposed model. For the performance verification, the results were compared with actual market size of some items. The Pearson's correlation coefficient was 0.513. Our approach has several advantages differing from the previous studies. First, text mining and machine learning techniques were applied for the first time on market size estimation, overcoming the limitations of traditional sampling based- or multiple assumption required-methods. In addition, the level of market category can be easily and efficiently adjusted according to the purpose of information use by changing cosine similarity threshold. Furthermore, it has a high potential of practical applications since it can resolve unmet needs for detailed market size information in public and private sectors. Specifically, it can be utilized in technology evaluation and technology commercialization support program conducted by governmental institutions, as well as business strategies consulting and market analysis report publishing by private firms. The limitation of our study is that the presented model needs to be improved in terms of accuracy and reliability. The semantic-based word embedding module can be advanced by giving a proper order in the preprocessed dataset or by combining another algorithm such as Jaccard similarity with Word2Vec. Also, the methods of product group clustering can be changed to other types of unsupervised machine learning algorithm. Our group is currently working on subsequent studies and we expect that it can further improve the performance of the conceptually proposed basic model in this study.