• Title/Summary/Keyword: 이행확률

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Business Cycle and Labor Market Transitions : A Comparison among Demographic Groups (경기변동과 고용 동학에 대한 분석: 집단 간 취업-미취업 이행확률 비교를 중심으로)

  • Goh, Young-Geun;Ahn, Taehyun
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.31-59
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    • 2018
  • This study examines how the rate of transition between employment and non-employment changes with the business cycle using monthly panel data constructed from 2000-2013 Korea Labor and Income Panel Study(KLIPS). In particular, we investigate whether the transition rates are different across demographic groups when the labor market is depressed. We find that, as the labor market weakens, the transition rate into non-employment significantly increases. The rates of transition into non-employment are substantially higher for female, older and less educated groups than those for male, prime-aged and more educated groups.

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Development of Stochastic Markov Process Model for Maintenance of Armor Units of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters (경사제 피복재의 유지관리를 위한 추계학적 Markov 확률모형의 개발)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.52-62
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    • 2013
  • A stochastic Markov process (MP) model has been developed for evaluating the probability of failure of the armor unit of rubble-mound breakwaters as a function of time. The mathematical MP model could have been formulated by combining the counting process or renewal process (CP/RP) on the load occurrences with the damage process (DP) on the cumulative damage events, and applied to the armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters. Transition probabilities have been estimated by Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) technique with the definition of damage level of armor units, and very well satisfies some conditions constrained in the probabilistic and physical views. The probabilities of failure have been also compared and investigated in process of time which have been calculated according to the variations of return period and safety factor being the important variables related to design of armor units of rubble-mound breakwater. In particular, it can be quantitatively found how the prior damage levels can effect on the sequent probabilities of failure. Finally, two types of methodology have been in this study proposed to evaluate straightforwardly the repair times which are indispensable to the maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters and shown several simulation results including the cost analyses.

Accounting for the Recent Decline in the Share of Regular Employees: A Dynamic Analysis (근래의 상용직 비중 변화에 대한 동태적 분석)

  • Ryoo, Jaewoo;Kim, Jaehong
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.253-283
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    • 2001
  • This paper attempts to account for the recent decline in the share of 'regular employees' among total employees. It finds, among other things, that the decline which began in 1993 is not associated with the changes in the composition of the worker groups that have differing tendency to work as regular employees. Overall, the decline in the share of regular employment is mainly due to the workers' increased transition probability out of 'regular employment', with the exception of the younger workers for whom the decrease in the rate of entry into 'regular employment' has also been an important reason of such a decline.

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Asymmetric Information and Bargaining Delays (비대칭적 정보와 협상지연)

  • Choi, Chang-Kon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.1683-1689
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    • 2013
  • Applying Markov Stochastic Process theory, this paper attempts to suggest a tentative model explaining how private information may cause bargaining delay. It is shown that the bargaining delay is critically dependent on the specification of information. It turns out that the delay tends to be longer in bargaining where information is imperfect. This means that bargaining models frequently can have an infinite delay under imperfect information while they have finite delay of bargaining before reaching the agreements if information is perfect. Other interesting result is that bargaining delay may depend on who makes the offer first. And it is also shown that bargaining tends to end earlier if both players (seller and buyer) can make offers in turn than the case where only one side make a offer.

Job Transition Process by Reasons of Job Separation and Its Determining Factors (이직사유별 일자리 이행경로 및 결정요인 분석)

  • Yoon, Yoon-Gyu
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.91-134
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    • 2010
  • This study examines job transition process and its lahor market performance by reasons of job separation, using the Employment Insurance DB(2000~07). The findings show that involuntary job changers lend to suffer greater loss in job spell and real wage than voluntary job changers, which seems to reflect their characteristics such as lower quality of job matching due to unsystematic job search, negative signaling effect in the labor market and decreasing availability of human capital in previous job. In addition, unemployment benefit eligible for involuntary job changers tends to prolong the period of unemployment, while increasing job spell in the following employment.

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A Study of Work Transition Form of Female Youth (여성 청년층 집단의 취업이행 형태 연구)

  • 김태홍;김종숙
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.41-68
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    • 2002
  • This study explores school to work transition of female youth. Particularly, the analyses focus on a transition to the first job from the graduation, and exits of irregular employees from their first occupational status. Data used for the analysis are “The 4th Survey on Women's Employment”, collected by KWDI in 2001. The results show that it takes 1.54 years on average for transition. Significant factors that influence the probability of transition to the first job include economic situation and satisfaction level of major at college education. The general high school educated are less likely to move into the labor market. Only a half percent of irregular employees at their first jobs exits to regular employees or non-economically active status, and education levels and age cohorts have clear impacts of those exits. Majors in college education and holding irregular jobs before the graduation significantly affect the probability of being regular employees, while industry influences the exits to be non-economically active status.

A Systematic Analysis on Default Risk Based on Delinquency Probability

  • Kim, Gyoung Sun;Shin, Seung Woo
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.21-35
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    • 2018
  • The recent performance of residential mortgages demonstrated how default risk operated separately from prepayment risk. In this study, we investigated the determinants of the borrowers' decisions pertaining to early termination through default from the mortgage performance data released by Freddie Mac, involving securitized mortgage loans from January 2011 to September 2013. We estimated a Cox-type, proportional hazard model with a single risk on fundamental factors associated with default options for individual mortgages. We proposed a mortgage default model that included two specifications of delinquency: one using a delinquency binary variable, while the other using a delinquency probability. We also compared the results obtained from two specifications with respect to goodness-of-fit proposed in the spirit of Vuong (1989) in both overlapping and nested models' cases. We found that a model with our proposed delinquency probability variable showed a statistically significant advantage compared to a benchmark model with delinquency dummy variables. We performed a default prediction power test based on the method proposed in Shumway (2001), and found a much stronger performance from the proposed model.

A Study on the Characteristics of Labor Market Transition and Factors Influencing Labor Market Transition of Injured Workers (산업재해근로자 노동시장이행의 성격과 영향요인 연구)

  • Bae, Hwa Sook
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.69 no.3
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    • pp.193-212
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    • 2017
  • This study is purposed to explain the characteristics of injured workers' labor market situation and to analyze the factors influencing labor market transition of those workers. Using the Worker's Compensation Insurance Panel Data ver.1~3 which was surveyed by the Korean Workers' Compensation & Welfare Service in 2013-2015, this study analyzed 1,668 injured worker cases. The study shows that workers who have experience job retention at least once are 36.8% of all, 51.5% of them have experienced re-employment, and 36.9% have done unemployment. One result of the longitudinal analysis is that socio-demographic factors including gender, age, education years, convalescence period, ability on job performance, company size, term of service, temporary employment, daily-workers status before job accident and job training were associated with return to pre-injury job. The other result is that statistically significant factors affecting the probability to be the unemployed are gender, age, levels of disability, convalescence, ability on job performance, term of service before job accident, job rehabilitation service utilization. These findings indicate that we need to develop efficient intervention programs for supporting return-to-work and labor market transition of injured workers.

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Effects of Pre-Employment Efforts of the College Graduate Youth in Korea (대졸 청년층 취업준비노력의 실태와 성과)

  • Park, Sung-Jae;Ban, Jung-Ho
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.29-50
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    • 2006
  • This study examines the effects of pre-employment efforts of the youth on their transition to the labor market. Labor market performance is accessed by the transitory period, the employment at workplace with more than 300 employees, and the wage level. Based on the effects of employment efforts for the first transitory period, job experience during school and preparatory period for employment would raise the likelihood of employment, but the school credit, grade in English, and the frequency of interviews, on the contrary, failed to reduce the transitory period. Employment effect varied according to educational background. In case of college graduates, vocational education and job experience during school were statistically significant variables leading them to decent jobs. On the other hand, in case of university graduates, job experience and language skills were proven to be important factors. Lastly, for the wage effect, in case of college graduates, vocational training, job experience during school, and English ability were proven to increase the wage level. However, vocational training after graduation and job experience during school decreased the wage level, but grade in English and pre-employment efforts during school increased the possibility of getting a decent, highly paid job for university graduates.

Evaluating the Efficiency of Personal Information Protection Activities in a Private Company: Using Stochastic Frontier Analysis (개인정보처리자의 개인정보보호 활동 효율성 분석: 확률변경분석을 활용하여)

  • Jang, Chul-Ho;Cha, Yun-Ho;Yang, Hyo-Jin
    • Informatization Policy
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.76-92
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    • 2021
  • The value of personal information is increasing with the digital transformation of the 4th Industrial Revolution. The purpose of this study is to analyze the efficiency of personal information protection efforts of 2,000 private companies. It uses a stochastic frontier approach (SFA), a parametric estimation method that measures the absolute efficiency of protective activities. In particular, the personal information activity index is used as an output variable for efficiency analysis, with the personal information protection budget and number of personnel utilized as input variables. As a result of the analysis, efficiency is found to range from a minimum of 0.466 to a maximum of 0.949, and overall average efficiency is 0.818 (81.8%). The main causes of inefficiency include non-fulfillment of personal information management measures, lack of system for promoting personal information protection education, and non-fulfillment of obligations related to CCTV. Policy support is needed to implement safety measures and perform personal information encryption, especially customized support for small and medium-sized enterprises.