• Journal of Korean Port Research
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.65-92
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• 1992

The Korean central government has not appreciate the full extent of the impact of seaports on the national economy. As a consequence port investment has not been given sufficient priority and capacity has failed to keep pace with demand. The principal reason for this failure is the fact that the linkages (or relationships) of the port transport industry with other sectors have not been quantified and fully appreciated. To overcome this dificiency this paper developed a port input-output model to determine the economic impact of the port industry on the national economy. This impact study was conducted by analysing the impact of the Korean port industry upon the national economy from the macroeconomic viewpoint, and identifying the spreading effects of port investments upon the nation's economy. The analysis of the economic impact of the port industry suggests that its contribution to the Korean economy is substantial. What the model shows is, in quantifiable terms, there are the strong economic linkages between the port industry and the other sectors of the national economy. The contribution of the port industry to the Korean economy was summarised in the Conclusion section.

• Sleep Medicine and Psychophysiology
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.68-76
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• 2012

Objectives: Sleep disorders cause changes of autonomic nervous system (ANS) which affect cardiovascular system. Primary insomnia (PI) makes acceleration of sympathetic nervous system (SNS) tone by sleep deficiency and arousal. Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) sets off SNS by frequent arousals and hypoxemias during sleep. We aimed to compare the changes of heart rate variability (HRV) indices induced by insomnia or sleep apnea to analyze for ANS how much to be affected by PI or OSAS. Methods: Total 315 subjects carried out nocturnal polysomnography (NPSG) were categorized into 4 groups - PI, mild, moderate and severe OSAS. Severity of OSAS was determined by apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). Then we selected 110 subjects considering age, sex and valance of each group's size [Group 1 : PI (mean age=$41.50{\pm}13.16$ yrs, AHI <5, n=20), Group 2 : mild OSAS (mean age=$43.67{\pm}12.11$ yrs, AHI 5-15, n=30), Group 3 : moderate OSAS (mean age $44.93{\pm}12.38$ yrs, AHI 16-30, n=30), Group 4 : severe OSAS (mean age=$45.87{\pm}12.44$ yrs, AHI >30, n=30)]. Comparison of HRV indices among the four groups was performed with ANCOVA (adjusted for age and body mass index) and Sidak post-hoc test. Results: We found statistically significant differences in HRV indices between severe OSAS group and the other groups (PI, mild OSAS and moderate OSAS). And there were no significant differences in HRV indices among PI, mild and moderate OSAS group. In HRV indices of PI and severe OSAS group showing the most prominent difference in the group comparisons, average RR interval were $991.1{\pm}27.1$ and $875.8{\pm}22.0$ ms (p=0.016), standard deviation of NN interval (SDNN) was $85.4{\pm}6.6$ and $112.8{\pm}5.4$ ms (p=0.022), SDNN index was $57.5{\pm}5.2$ and $87.6{\pm}4.2$ (p<0.001), total power was $11,893.5{\pm}1,359.9$ and $18,097.0{\pm}1,107.2ms^2$(p=0.008), very low frequency (VLF) was $7,534.8{\pm}1,120.1$ and $11,883.8{\pm}912.0ms^2$ (p=0.035), low frequency (LF) was $2,724.2{\pm}327.8$ and $4,351.6{\pm}266.9ms^2$(p=0.003). Conclusions: VLF and LF which were correlated with SNS tone showed more increased differences between severe OSAS group and PI group than other group comparisons. We could suggest that severe OSAS group was more influential to increased SNS activity than PI group.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.