• Title/Summary/Keyword: 유럽금리

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Cross-border Relationship Analysis Between Base Interest Rates and Construction Investment (국경을 넘어선 기준금리와 건설투자 간의 관계 분석)

  • Kim, Toseung;Lee, Hyeon-soo;Park, Moonseo
    • Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2019
  • As the zero interest rate era was over with the end of quantitative easing, the economy of several global markets observed the fluctuations of the base interest rate. Interest rate, which is the change of money value with respect to time, is negatively correlated with construction investment. Considering the characteristics of interest rates and construction investment as economic variables, the necessity of cross-border analysis between base interest rate and construction investment was suggested in this paper. Cross-correlation analysis between base interest rates and construction investment crossing the border was performed. The effective correlations were confirmed with values varying by countries. Similar characteristics were also observed among countries with similar economy, which were then divided into three groups. Additionally, identifying the base interest rate that affects the construction investment of a particular country was made possible by reflecting a self-cycle of base interest rates. Lastly, from the result of examining the influence of each rise and fall of the interest rate, it was verified that the difference was more than twice as large in some countries. These results are expected to contribute to construction-related policy makers or investors to make decisions in response to the economic status of the construction market.

해운이슈

  • 한국선주협회
    • 해운
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    • s.83
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    • pp.12-16
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    • 2011
  • 2011년 하반기 세계경제는 고유가와 유럽 재정우기 등 상반기 충격요인들의 향배에 의해 결정될 것이다. 3분기에도 4%대의 소비자물가 상승세가 이어지면서 국내경기는 하반기 중 회복의 활력이 세지 않을 전망이다. 원화절상, 일본 대체효과 소멸 등으로 수출활력이 다소 둔화되고 설비투자도 대기수요가 충족되면서 상승세가 꺾일 전망이다. 이에 따라 2011년 하반기 국내경제 성장률은 4.5%, 연간으로는 4.1% 수준을 기록할 것으로 전망된다. 가계부채, 건설사 및 저축은행 부실문제 등이 우리경제의 장기적인 불안요인으로 작용하겠지만 단기간 내 경제에 심각한 충격을 줄 정도는 아닌 것으로 보인다. 하반기 중에도 물가안정 대책에 초점이 두어져야 하며 단계적인 정책금리 인상으로 기대 인플레이션 상승을 억제할 필요가 있다. 하반기의 시작점에서 경제악화 요인들은 어떠한 것들이 있으며, 효과적으로 대처하기 위해서 현재의 상황과 앞으로의 전망을 살펴볼 필요가 있다. 다음은 LG 경제연구소에서 발표한 "2011년 하반기 세계경제 환경 및 국내경제 정책 전망"의 주요 내용을 정리 요약한 것이다.

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The Analysis of EU Carbon Prices Using SVECM Approach (SVECM 모형을 이용한 탄소배출권 가격 연구)

  • Bu, Gi-Duck;Jeong, Kiho
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.531-565
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    • 2011
  • All previous studies analyzing multivariate time series data of EUA (European Union Allowance) price commonly used endogenous variables within the four variables and included the period from April to June of 2006 in the analysis, when the price distortion occurred. This study uses graph theory and structural vector error correction model (SVECM) to analyze the daily time series data of the EUA (European Union Allowance) price. As endogenous variables, five variables are considered for the analysis, including prices of crude oil, natural gas, electricity and coal in addition to carbon price. Data period is Phase 2 period (April 21, 2008 to March 31, 2010) to avoid the EUA price distortion of Phase 1 period (2005~2007). Further, the monthly data including the economic variables as endogenous variables are analyzed.

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A Study on the stock price prediction and influence factors through NARX neural network optimization (NARX 신경망 최적화를 통한 주가 예측 및 영향 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Cheon, Min Jong;Lee, Ook
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.8
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    • pp.572-578
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    • 2020
  • The stock market is affected by unexpected factors, such as politics, society, and natural disasters, as well as by corporate performance and economic conditions. In recent days, artificial intelligence has become popular, and many researchers have tried to conduct experiments with that. Our study proposes an experiment using not only stock-related data but also other various economic data. We acquired a year's worth of data on stock prices, the percentage of foreigners, interest rates, and exchange rates, and combined them in various ways. Thus, our input data became diversified, and we put the combined input data into a nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) model. With the input data in the NARX model, we analyze and compare them to the original data. As a result, the model exhibits a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.08 as being the most accurate when we set 10 neurons and two delays with a combination of stock prices and exchange rates from the U.S., China, Europe, and Japan. This study is meaningful in that the exchange rate has the greatest influence on stock prices, lowering the error from RMSE 0.589 when only closing data are used.

An Empirical Study on KOSDAQ-Listed SMEs' Convertible Bonds and Financial Constraints (코스닥 기업의 전환사채 발행이 금융제약에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증연구)

  • Binh, Ki Beom;Byun, Jinho;Park, Kyung Hee
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.173-193
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzes the effects of KOSDAQ-listed firms' convertible bonds, which have recently increased rapidly in number and size. Although KOSDAQ companies are called mid-size companies, KOSDAQ companies belong to SMEs. Furthermore, convertible bonds have traditionally been a critical capital raising tool for SMEs in the US and Europe. In Korea, KOSDAQ companies actively employ convertible bonds. Convertible bonds provide investment incentives for hesitant investors, allowing companies to raise capital at low interest rates. This study analyzes whether capital raising through issuance of convertible bonds by KOSDAQ companies affects their financial constraints. Financial constraints result from incomplete capital markets, which are embedded in most companies and countries.. In particular, financial constraints have a significant impact on the growth and survival of SMEs. The seminal study FHP(1988) is the most important and effective study of firm's financial constraints. We find that FHP's financial constraint measures show that convertible bond issuance would mitigate the financial constraints of KOSDAQ companies. However, the significance of the evidence is not strong.

Dutch Flower Still Life from the 17th Century to the Early 18th Century : A formal characteristics of Dutch Flower still life and its Relationship demand for artworks (17~18C의 네덜란드 꽃정물화 조형적 특성 연구 -네덜란드 꽃정물화의 조형적 특성과 미술수요의 관계를 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Ock Keun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Floral Art and Design
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    • no.44
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    • pp.33-51
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    • 2021
  • This thesis analyzes the formal characteristics of Dutch flower still life from the 17th century to the early 18th century and looks into the relevance with the Dutch art market from a macro perspective. The 17th Flower Still Life is to represent social hierarchy in that as the imported exotic, recherch items, the flowers were classified in the terms of their rarity and expensiveness. For this intriguing research, the subject is circumscribed to a vase of flowers, which is the quintessence of In the form of various Dutch Flower Still Life. Dutch society in the early 17th century was centered on the civilian class engaged in trade and commerce, which allowed them to purchase art works to show off their wealth, economic benefits and satisfaction of aesthetic tastes. Among them, the popularity of flower still life was related to the concentrated demand for rare flowers from the new continent. Accordingly, exact depiction and sense of the three dimensional manner were highly regarded in the early flower still life. For the tastes of the wealthy citizens who succeeded in business, the identity of flowers and the actual screen were considered as important. However, after the mid 17th century, economic growth in the Netherlands put an end, and the art market was also on a downward path. The demand class of flower still life has gotten farther away from the spirit of businessmen and has changed into city aristocrats who were stable rentiers. Their tastes laid emphasis on subjective sensibility, which meant that aristocratic, asymmetric, and dramatic chiaroscuro were preferred rather than being realistic. Furthermore, in the 18th century illusionistic realism was abandoned as an expression method of the planar characteristics and a new era in the floral still life was ushered with the reinforcement of decorative effect. From this perspective, it is not an exaggeration to say that romanticism, which is thought of as the beginning of Contemporary Art, originated from the aesthetic taste of Dutch civic culture.