• Title/Summary/Keyword: 위험의 분류

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Distress and Associated Factors in Patients with Breast Cancer Surgery : A Cross-Sectional Study (유방암 수술환자의 디스트레스 및 연관인자 : 단면연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Shin;Rim, Hyo-Deog;Woo, Jungmin
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.77-85
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    • 2018
  • Objectives : This study aimed to investigate the level of distress using the distress thermometer (DT) and the factors associated with distress in postoperative breast cancer (BC) patients. Methods : DT and WHOQOL-BREF (World Health Organization Quality of Life Scale Abbreviated Version) along with sociodemographic variables were assessed in patients undergoing surgery for their first treatment of BC within one week postoperatively. The distress group consisted of participants with a DT score ${\geq}4$. The prevalence and associative factors of distress were examined by descriptive, univariable, and logistic regression analysis. Results : Three hundred seven women were recruited, and 264 subjects were finally analyzed. A total of 173 (65.5%) were classified into the distress group. The distress group showed significantly younger age (p=0.045), living without a spouse (p=0.032), and worse quality of life (QOL) as measured by overall QOL (p=0.009), general health (p=0.005), physical health domain (p<0.000), and psychological health domain (p=0.002). The logistic regression analysis showed that patients aged 40-49 years were more likely to experience distress than those aged ${\geq}60years$ (Odds ratios [OR]=2.992, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.241-7.215). Moreover, the WHOQOL-BREF physical health domain was a predictive factor of distress (OR=0.777, 95% CI 0.692-0.873). Conclusions : A substantial proportion of patients are experiencing significant distress after BC surgery. It would be expected that distress management, especially in the middle-aged patients and in the domain of physical QOL (e.g., pain, insomnia, fatigue), from the early BC treatment stage might reduce chronic distress.

Conservation Status, Construction Type and Stability Considerations for Fortress Wall in Hongjuupseong (Town Wall) of Hongseong, Korea (홍성 홍주읍성 성벽의 보존상태 및 축성유형과 안정성 고찰)

  • Park, Junhyoung;Lee, Chanhee
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.4-31
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    • 2018
  • It is difficult to ascertain exactly when the Hongjuupseong (Town Wall) was first constructed, due to it had undergone several times of repair and maintenance works since it was piled up newly in 1415, when the first year of the reign of King Munjong (the 5th King of the Joseon Dynasty). Parts of its walls were demolished during the Japanese occupation, leaving the wall as it is today. Hongseong region is also susceptible to historical earthquakes for geological reasons. There have been records of earthquakes, such as the ones in 1978 and 1979 having magnitudes of 5.0 and 4.0, respectively, which left part of the walls collapsed. Again, in 2010, heavy rainfall destroyed another part of the wall. The fortress walls of the Hongjuupseong comprise various rocks, types of facing, building methods, and filling materials, according to sections. Moreover, the remaining wall parts were reused in repair works, and characteristics of each period are reflected vertically in the wall. Therefore, based on the vertical distribution of the walls, the Hongjuupseong was divided into type I, type II, and type III, according to building types. The walls consist mainly of coarse-grained granites, but, clearly different types of rocks were used for varying types of walls. The bottom of the wall shows a mixed variety of rocks and natural and split stones, whereas the center is made up mostly of coarse-grained granites. For repairs, pink feldspar granites was used, but it was different from the rock variety utilized for Suguji and Joyangmun Gate. Deterioration types to the wall can be categorized into bulging, protrusion of stones, missing stones at the basement, separation of framework, fissure and fragmentation, basement instability, and structural deformation. Manually and light-wave measurements were used to check the amount and direction of behavior of the fortress walls. A manual measurement revealed the sections that were undergoing structural deformation. Compared with the result of the light-wave measurement, the two monitoring methods proved correlational. As a result, the two measuring methods can be used complementarily for the long-term conservation and management of the wall. Additionally, the measurement system must be maintained, managed, and improved for the stability of the Hongjuupseong. The measurement of Nammunji indicated continuing changes in behavior due to collapse and rainfall. It can be greatly presumed that accumulated changes over the long period reached the threshold due to concentrated rainfall and subsequent behavioral irregularities, leading to the walls' collapse. Based on the findings, suggestions of the six grades of management from 0 to 5 have been made, to manage the Hongjuupseong more effectively. The applied suggested grade system of 501.9 m (61.10%) was assessed to grade 1, 29.5 m (3.77%) to grade 2, 10.4 m (1.33%) to grade 3, 241.2 m (30.80%) and grade 4. The sections with grade 4 concentrated around the west of Honghwamun Gate and the east of the battlement, which must be monitored regularly in preparation for a potential emergency. The six-staged management grade system is cyclical, where after performing repair and maintenance works through a comprehensive stability review, the section returned to grade 0. It is necessary to monitor thoroughly and evaluate grades on a regular basis.

Usefulness of Abdominal Compressor Using Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients (토모테라피를 이용한 간암환자의 정위적 방사선치료시 복부압박장치의 유용성 평가)

  • Woo, Joong-Yeol;Kim, Joo-Ho;Kim, Joon-Won;Baek, Jong-Geal;Park, Kwang-Soon;Lee, Jong-Min;Son, Dong-Min;Lee, Sang-Kyoo;Jeon, Byeong-Chul;Cho, Jeong-Hee
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.157-165
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: We evaluated usefulness of abdominal compressor for stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients and hepato-biliary cancer and metastatic liver cancer patients. Materials and Methods: From November 2011 to March 2012, we selected HCC patients who gained reduction of diaphragm movement >1 cm through abdominal compressor (diaphragm control, elekta, sweden) for HT (Hi-Art Tomotherapy, USA). We got planning computed tomography (CT) images and 4 dimensional (4D) images through 4D CT (somatom sensation, siemens, germany). The gross tumor volume (GTV) included a gross tumor and margins considering tumor movement. The planning target volume (PTV) included a 5 to 7 mm safety margin around GTV. We classified patients into two groups according to distance between tumor and organs at risk (OAR, stomach, duodenum, bowel). Patients with the distance more than 1 cm are classified as the 1st group and they received SBRT of 4 or 5 fractions. Patients with the distance less than 1 cm are classified as the 2nd group and they received tomotherapy of 20 fractions. Megavoltage computed tomography (MVCT) were performed 4 or 10 fractions. When we verify a MVCT fusion considering priority to liver than bone-technique. We sent MVCT images to Mim_vista (Mimsoftware, ver .5.4. USA) and we re-delineated stomach, duodenum and bowel to bowel_organ and delineated liver. First, we analyzed MVCT images to check the setup variation. Second we compared dose difference between tumor and OAR based on adaptive dose through adaptive planning station and Mim_vista. Results: Average setup variation from MVCT was $-0.66{\pm}1.53$ mm (left-right) $0.39{\pm}4.17$ mm (superior-inferior), $0.71{\pm}1.74$ mm (anterior-posterior), $-0.18{\pm}0.30$ degrees (roll). 1st group ($d{\geq}1$) and 2nd group (d<1) were similar to setup variation. 1st group ($d{\geq}1$) of $V_{diff3%}$ (volume of 3% difference of dose) of GTV through adaptive planing station was $0.78{\pm}0.05%$, PTV was $9.97{\pm}3.62%$, $V_{diff5%}$ was GTV 0.0%, PTV was $2.9{\pm}0.95%$, maximum dose difference rate of bowel_organ was $-6.85{\pm}1.11%$. 2nd Group (d<1) GTV of $V_{diff3%}$ was $1.62{\pm}0.55%$, PTV was $8.61{\pm}2.01%$, $V_{diff5%}$ of GTV was 0.0%, PTV was $5.33{\pm}2.32%$, maximum dose difference rate of bowel_organ was $28.33{\pm}24.41%$. Conclusion: Despite we saw diaphragm movement more than 5 mm with flouroscopy after use an abdominal compressor, average setup_variation from MVCT was less than 5 mm. Therefore, we could estimate the range of setup_error within a 5 mm. Target's dose difference rate of 1st group ($d{\geq}1$) and 2nd group (d<1) were similar, while 1st group ($d{\geq}1$) and 2nd group (d<1)'s bowel_organ's maximum dose difference rate's maximum difference was more than 35%, 1st group ($d{\geq}1$)'s bowel_organ's maximum dose difference rate was smaller than 2nd group (d<1). When applicating SBRT to HCC, abdominal compressor is useful to control diaphragm movement in selected patients with more than 1 cm bowel_organ distance.

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A Study on Serum Lipid Levels in Elderly People in Wando Area - Based on Age, BMI, WHR - (완도지역 성인 및 노인의 혈청지질 수준에 관한 연구(I) - 연령, 신체 계측치를 중심으로 -)

  • Cha, Bok-Kyeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.68-77
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    • 2006
  • This study was peformed to document the association between nutrient intakes, body mass index (BMI), waist/hip ratio (WHR), and a major risk factor for chronic diseases. A three-day dietary intake survey, using a 24 hour recall method, was obtained from 187 subjects aged 46 to 84 (mean age 65.3) living in Wando island area. The average daily mean energy intakes were 1869.0 kcal for male and 1943.9 kcal for female, respectively. Daily intakes of protein for male and female were 28.0 and 30.4 g, and those of fat were 31.5 and 28.51 g, respectively Carbohydrate dependency was decreased with age. Protein dependency was increased with age. The mean intakes of energy, protein, Vit. A, Vit. D, Vit. E, Ca, Zn did not meet Korean RDA for elderly. The level of serum triglyceride was higher in males than in females and showed the tendency to increase with age in both sexes, whereas HDL-cholesterol tended to decrease with age in both sexes. The levels of serum total-cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol were significantly higher in males than in females, particularly in the age of $46\~59$ (p<0.05). The level of atherogenic index (AI) was significantly higher in females than in males, particularly in the age of 80 and over (p<0.05) Based on these results, it is evident that people in island area did not consume enough nutrient. Specially, dietary intake of protein was not adequate. This study implies that triglyceride, total-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, AI were increased with increasing age, BMI and WHR.

The Three Types of Clinical Manifestation of Cow's Milk Allergy with Predominantly Intestinal Symptoms (위장관 증세 위주로 발현하는 영유아기 우유 알레르기 질환의 3가지 임상 유형에 관한 고찰)

  • Lee, Jeong-Jin;Lee, Eun-Joo;Kim, Hyun-Hee;Choi, Eun-Jin;Hwang, Jin-Bok;Han, Chang-Ho;Chung, Hai-Lee;Kwon, Young-Dae;Kim, Yong-Jin
    • Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.30-40
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    • 2000
  • Purpose: During the first year of life, cow's milk protein is the major offender causing food allergy. Cow's milk allergy (CMA) affects 2~7% of infants, of which approximately one-half show predominantly gastrointestinal symptoms. We studied the clinical types of cow's milk allergy with predominantly gastrointestinal symptoms (CMA-GI) of childhood. Methods: The retrospective study was performed on 30 (male 22, female 8) patients who had diagnosed as CMA-GI during 2 years and 3 months from March 1995 to June 1997. Results: 1) Children with CMA-GI presented in the three types of clinical manifestation on the basis of time to reaction to milk ingestion: Quick (Q) onset (5 cases), Slow (S) onset (20 cases), Quick & Slow (Q&S) (5 cases). 2) Age on admission of the three groups was significantly different (p<0.05): (Q onset: $81.4{\pm}67.1$ days, S onset: $31.9{\pm}12.7$ days, Q&S: $366.0{\pm}65.0$ days). Although the body weight at birth was 10~95 percentile in all patients, body weight on admission was different: (Q onset: 10~50 percentile, S onset: below 10 percentile, Q&S: 10~25 percentile). S onset group was significantly different compared with other groups (p<0.05) and 90% of this one was failure to thrive below 3 percentile. 3) Peripheral leukocyte counts were as followings: (Q onset: $5,700{\sim}12,300/mm^3$, S onset: $10,000{\sim}33,400/mm^3$, Q&S: $5,200{\sim}14,900/mm^3$). Slow onset group was significantly different compared with other groups (p<0.05). Serum albumin levels on admission were as followings: (Q onset: $4.2{\pm}0.4\;g/dl$, S onset: $3.0{\pm}0.3\;g/dl$, Q&S: $4.0{\pm}0.3\;g/dl$). S onset group was significantly different compared with other groups (p<0.05) and 85% of this one was below 3.5 g/dl. 4) Although morphometrical analysis on small intestinal mucosa did not show enteropathy in Q onset and Q&S groups, all cases of S onset revealed enteropathy: 45% of this one showed subtotal villous atrophy, 55 % showed partial villous atrophy. 5) Allergic reaction test to other foods was not performed in S onset group because of ethical problem and high risk in general condition. In Q onset group, allergic reaction to one or two other foods: soy formula, weaning formula and eggs. Q&S goup revealed allergic reactions to several foods or to most of all foods except protein hydrolysate formula: eggs, potatos, some kinds of sea food, apples, carrots, beef and chicken. 6) Serum IgE level, peripheral eosinophil counts, milk RAST, soy RAST, skin test were not significantly different among groups. Conclusion: CMA-GI may present in three clinical ways on the basis of time to reaction to milk ingestion, typical clinical findings and morphologic changes in the small bowel mucosal biopsy specimens. This clinical subdivision might be helpful in diagnostic and therapeutic approaches in CMA-GI. Early suspicion is mandatory especially in S onset type because of high risks with malnutrition and enteropathy.

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Biliary Atresia in Korea - A Survey by the Korean Association of Pediatric Surgeons - (담도폐색증 - 대한소아외과학회회원 대상 전국조사 -)

  • Choi, Kum-Ja;Kim, S.C.;Kim, S.K.;Kim, W.K.;Kim, I.K.;Kim, J.E.;Kim, J.C.;Kim, H.Y.;Kim, H.H.;Park, K.W.;Park, W.H.;Song, Y.T.;Oh, S.M.;Lee, D.S.;Lee, M.D.;Lee, S.K.;Lee, S.C.;Jhung, S.Y.;Jhung, S.E.;P.M., Jung;S.O., Choi;Choi, S.H.;Han, S.J.;Huh, Y.S.;Hong, C.;Hwbang, E.H.
    • Advances in pediatric surgery
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.143-155
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    • 2002
  • A survey on biliary atresia was made among 26 members of the Korean Association of Pediatric Surgeons. The members were required to complete a questionnaire and a case registration form for each patient during the twentyone-year period of 1980-2000. Three hundred and eighty patients were registered from 18 institutions. The average number of patients per surgeon was one to two every year. The male to female ratio was 1:1.3. The age of patients on diagnosis with biliary atresia was on average $65.4{\pm} 36.2$ days old. The national distribution was 32.8% in Seoul, 25.3% in Gyoungki-Do, 21.6% in Gyoungsang-Do, 9.27% in Choongchung-Do, etc. in order. The most common clinical presentation was jaundice (98.4%) and change of stool color (86.2%) was second. Two hundred eighty (74.7%) of 375 patients were operated by 80 days of age. Three hundred thirty six (9 1.9%) of 366 patients were operated on by the original Kasai procedure, and 305 (84.3%) of 362 patients were observed by bile-drainage postoperatively. The overall postoperative complication rate was 18.5% and the overall postoperative mortality rate was 6.8%. The associated anomalies were observed in 72 cases (22.5%). One hundred ninty five (64.7%) of 302 patients have been alive in follow-up and 49 (25.1%) have survived over 5 years without problem after operation. Ascending cholangitis, varices and ascites affected survival significantly, and the important long-term prognostic factor was the occurrence of complications.

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CLINICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CHILD AND ADOLESCENT PSYCHIATRIC INPATIENTS WITH MOOD DISORDER (입원한 기분장애 소아청소년의 임상특성 - 주요 우울증과 양극성장애의 우울삽화 비교를 중심으로 -)

  • Cho, Su-Chul;Paik, Ki-Chung;Lee, Kyung-Kyu;Kim, Hyun-Woo;Hong, Kang-E;Lim, Myung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.209-220
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this study is to find out the characteristics of depressive episode about major depression and bipolar disorder in child and adolescent. The subjects of this study were 34 major depression patients and 17 bipolar disorder patients hospitalized at child and adolescent psychiatry in OO university children's hospital from 1st March 1993 to 31st October 1999. The method of this study is to review socio-demographic characteristics, diagnostic classification, chief problems and symptoms at admission, frequency of symptoms, maternal pregnancy problem history, childhood developmental history, coexisting psychiatric disorders, family psychopathology and family history and therapeutic response through their chart. 1) The ratio of male was higher than that of female in major depressive disorder while they are similar in manic episode, bipolar disorder. 2) Average onset age of bipolar disorder was 14 years 1 month and it was 12 years 8 months in the case of major depression As a result, average onset age of major depression is lower than that of bipolar disorder. 3) The patients complained of vegetative symptoms than somatic symptoms in both bipolar disorder and depressive disorder. Also, the cases of major depression developed more suicide idea symptom while the case of bipolar disorder developed more aggressive symptoms. In the respect of psychotic symptoms, delusion was more frequently shown in major depression, but halucination was more often shown in bipolar disorder. 4) Anxiety disorder coexisted most frequently in two groups. And there coexisted symptoms such as somartoform disorder, mental retardation and personality disorder in both cases. 5) The influence of family loading was remarkable in both cases. Above all, the development of major depression had to do with child abuse history and inappropriate care of family. It is apparent that there are distinctive differences between major depression and bipolar disorder in child and adolescent through the study, just as in adult cases. Therefore the differences of clinical characteristics between two disorders is founded in coexisting disorders and clinical symptoms including onset age, somatic symptoms and vegetative symptoms.

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Analysis and Implication on the International Regulations related to Unmanned Aircraft -with emphasis on ICAO, U.S.A., Germany, Australia- (세계 무인항공기 운용 관련 규제 분석과 시사점 - ICAO, 미국, 독일, 호주를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Dong-Uk;Kim, Ji-Hoon;Kim, Sung-Mi;Kwon, Ky-Beom
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.225-285
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    • 2017
  • In regard to the regulations related to the RPA(Remotely Piloted Aircraft), which is sometimes called in other countries as UA(Unmanned Aircraft), ICAO stipulates the regulations in the 'RPAS manual (2015)' in detail based on the 'Chicago Convention' in 1944, and enacts provisions for the Rules of UAS or RPAS. Other contries stipulates them such as the Federal Airline Rules (14 CFR), Public Law (112-95) in the United States, the Air Transport Act, Air Transport Order, Air Transport Authorization Order (through revision in "Regulations to operating Rules on unmanned aerial System") based on EASA Regulation (EC) No.216/2008 in the case of unmanned aircaft under 150kg in Germany, and Civil Aviation Act (CAA 1998), Civil Aviation Act 101 (CASR Part 101) in Australia. Commonly, these laws exclude the model aircraft for leisure purpose and require pilots on the ground, not onboard aricraft, capable of controlling RPA. The laws also require that all managements necessary to operate RPA and pilots safely and efficiently under the structure of the unmanned aircraft system within the scope of the regulations. Each country classifies the RPA as an aircraft less than 25kg. Australia and Germany further break down the RPA at a lower weight. ICAO stipulates all general aviation operations, including commercial operation, in accordance with Annex 6 of the Chicago Convention, and it also applies to RPAs operations. However, passenger transportation using RPAs is excluded. If the operational scope of the RPAs includes the airspace of another country, the special permission of the relevant country shall be required 7 days before the flight date with detail flight plan submitted. In accordance with Federal Aviation Regulation 107 in the United States, a small non-leisure RPA may be operated within line-of-sight of a responsible navigator or observer during the day in the speed range up to 161 km/hr (87 knots) and to the height up to 122 m (400 ft) from surface or water. RPA must yield flight path to other aircraft, and is prohibited to load dangerous materials or to operate more than two RPAs at the same time. In Germany, the regulations on UAS except for leisure and sports provide duty to avoidance of airborne collisions and other provisions related to ground safety and individual privacy. Although commercial UAS of 5 kg or less can be freely operated without approval by relaxing the existing regulatory requirements, all the UAS regardless of the weight must be operated below an altitude of 100 meters with continuous monitoring and pilot control. Australia was the first country to regulate unmanned aircraft in 2001, and its regulations have impacts on the unmanned aircraft laws of ICAO, FAA, and EASA. In order to improve the utiliity of unmanned aircraft which is considered to be low risk, the regulation conditions were relaxed through the revision in 2016 by adding the concept "Excluded RPA". In the case of excluded RPA, it can be operated without special permission even for commercial purpose. Furthermore, disscussions on a new standard manual is being conducted for further flexibility of the current regulations.

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Rectal Bleeding and Its Management after Irradiation for Cervix Cancer (자궁경부암 환자에서 방사선치료 후에 발생한 직장출혈과 치료)

  • Chun Mison;Kang Seunghee;Kil Hoon-Jong;Oh Young-Taek;Sohn Jeong-Hye;Jung Hye-Young;Ryu Hee Suk;Lee Kwang-Jae
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.343-352
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : Radiotherapy is the main treatment modality for uterine cervix cancer. Since the rectum is in the radiation target volume, rectal bleeding is a common late side effect. This study evaluates the risk factors of radiation induced rectal bleeding and discusses its optimal management. Materials and Methods : total of 213 patients who completed external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) and intracavitary radiation (ICR) between September 1994 and December 1999 were included in this study. No patient had undergone concurrent chemo-radiotherapy. Ninety patients received radiotherapy according to a modified hyperfractionated schedule. A midline block was placed at a pelvic dose of between 30.6 Gy to 39.6 Gy. The total parametrial dose from the EBRT was 51 to 59 Gy depending on the extent of their disease. The Point A dose from the HDR brachytherapy was 28 Gy to 30 Gy $(4\;Gy\times7,\;or\;5\;Gy\times6)$. The rectal point dose was calculated either by the ICRU 38 guideline, or by anterior rectal wall point seen on radiographs, with barium contrast. Rectal bleeding was scored by the LENT/SOMA criteria. For the management of rectal bleeding, we opted for observation, sucralfate enema or coagulation based on the frequency or amount of bleeding. The median follow-up period was 39 months $(12\~86\;months)$. Results : The incidence of rectal bleeding was $12.7\%$ (27/213); graded as 1 in 9 patients, grade 2 in 16 and grade 3 in 2. The overall moderate and severe rectal complication rate was $8.5\%$. Most complications $(92.6\%)$ developed within 2 years following completion of radiotherapy (median 16 months). No patient progressed to rectal fistula or obstruction during the follow-up period. In the univariate analysis, three factors correlated with a high incidence of bleeding an icruCRBED greater than 100 Gy $(19.7\%\;vs.\;4.2\%)$, an EBRT dose to the parametrium over 55 Gy $(22.1\%\;vs.\;5.1\%)$ and higher stages of III and IV $(31.8\%\;vs.\;10.5\%)$. In the multivariate analysis, the icruCRBED was the only significant factor (p>0.0432). The total parametrial dose from the EBRT had borderline significance (p=0.0546). Grade 1 bleeding was controlled without further management (3 patients), or with sucralfate enema 1 to 2 months after treatment. For grade 2 bleeding, sucralfate enema for 1 to 2 months reduced the frequency or amount of bleeding but for residual bleeding, additional coagulation was peformed, where immediate cessation of bleeding was achieved (symptom duration of 3 to 10 months). Grade 3 bleeding lasted for 1 year even with multiple transfusions and coagulations. Conclusion : Moderate and several rectal bleeding occurred in $8.5\%$ of patients, which is comparable with other reports. The most significant risk factor for rectal bleeding was the accumulated dose to the rectum (icruCRBED), which corrected with consideration to biological equivalence. Prompt management of rectal bleeding, with a combination of sucralfate enema and coagulation, reduced the duration of the symptom, and minimized the anxiety/discomfort of patients.

Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.