• Title/Summary/Keyword: 위험요인 추정

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Software Reliability Growth Modeling in the Testing Phase with an Outlier Stage (하나의 이상구간을 가지는 테스팅 단계에서의 소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장 모형화)

  • Park, Man-Gon;Jung, Eun-Yi
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.5 no.10
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    • pp.2575-2583
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    • 1998
  • The productionof the highly relible softwae systems and theirs performance evaluation hae become important interests in the software industry. The software evaluation has been mainly carried out in ternns of both reliability and performance of software system. Software reliability is the probability that no software error occurs for a fixed time interval during software testing phase. These theoretical software reliability models are sometimes unsuitable for the practical testing phase in which a software error at a certain testing stage occurs by causes of the imperfect debugging, abnornal software correction, and so on. Such a certatin software testing stage needs to be considered as an outlying stage. And we can assume that the software reliability does not improve by means of muisance factor in this outlying testing stage. In this paper, we discuss Bavesian software reliability growth modeling and estimation procedure in the presence of an imidentitied outlying software testing stage by the modification of Jehnski Moranda. Also we derive the Bayes estimaters of the software reliability panmeters by the assumption of prior information under the squared error los function. In addition, we evaluate the proposed software reliability growth model with an unidentified outlying stage in an exchangeable model according to the values of nuisance paramether using the accuracy, bias, trend, noise metries as the quantilative evaluation criteria through the compater simulation.

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Mortality Change of North Korean People and its Association with State Production and Welfare System (경제 위기 전후 북한 주민의 사망률 동태의 특성과 변화)

  • Park, Keong-Suk
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.101-130
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    • 2012
  • This study examines mortality change in North Korea and its association with state production and welfare systems. Two main subjects are analyzed. The first theme is to examine the reliability of mortality related data released by North Korea government authorities. Examining inner consistencies among mortality related statistics and comparing with mortality trends in other socialist societies, the study finds that mortality rate was under estimated. Under-estimation of mortality by North Korean authorities is regarded to result not only from political purpose which aims to propagate the regime's superiority but also from enumeration errors of vital statistics based on the residence registration. The second theme is to estimate the change in mortality of North Korean people since the establishment of DPRK, correcting errors of mortality data. Mortality of North Korean people is estimated to have improved largely by the early 1970s, to have been sluggish hereafter, and finally to have increased during the economic hardship period between 1993 and 2008. While large people died during the food crisis in the late 1990s, however the population loss caused by mortality increase was not so great as the proposition of the huge starvation was expected. It is partly because population turbulence occurred not just by mortality increase, rather it has progressed in the joint effects of fertility decline and exodus of North Korean people for food. It is also due to North Korean people's voluntary activities of informal economy. It is also worth noting the high mortality rate of North Korean men. The high mortality of North Korean men is likely due to men's mobilization for long time in army and labor with high risk of accident and their life styles.

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Estimation of Heading Date using Mean Temperature and the Effect of Sowing Date on the Yield of Sweet Sorghum in Jellabuk Province (평균온도를 이용한 전북지역 단수수의 출수기 추정 및 파종시기별 수량 변화)

  • Choi, Young Min;Choi, Kyu-Hwan;Shin, So-Hee;Han, Hyun-Ah;Heo, Byong Soo;Kwon, Suk-Ju
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.64 no.2
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    • pp.127-136
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    • 2019
  • Sweet sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench), compared to traditional crops, has been evaluated as a useful crop with high adaptability to the environment and various uses, but cultivation has not expanded owing to a lack of related research and information in Korea. This study was conducted to estimate heading date in 'Chorong' sweet sorghum based on climate data of the last 30 years (1989 - 2018) from six regions (Jeonju, Buan, Jeongup, Imsil, Namwon, and Jangsu) in Jellabuk Province. In addition, we compared the growth and quality factors by sowing date (April 10, April 25, May 10, May 25, June 10, June 25, and July 10) in 2018. Days from sowing to heading (DSH) increased to 107, 96, 83, 70, 59, 64, and 65 days in order of the sowing dates, respectively, and the average was 77.7 days. The effective accumulated temperature for heading date was $1,120.3^{\circ}C$. The mean annual temperature was the highest in Jeonju, followed in descending order by Jeongup, Buan, Namwon, Imsil, and Jangsu. The DSH based on effective accumulated temperature gradually decreased in all sowing date treatments in the six regions during the last 30 years. DSH of the six regions showed a negative relationship with mean temperature (sowing date to heading date) and predicted DSH ($R^2=0.9987**$) calculated by mean temperature was explained with a probability of 89% of observed DSH in 2017 and 2018. At harvest, fresh stem weight and soluble solids content were higher in the April and July sowings, but sugar content was higher in the May 10 ($3.4Mg{\cdot}ha^{-1}$) and May 25 ($3.1Mg{\cdot}ha^{-1}$) sowings. Overall, the April and July sowings were of low quality and yield, and there is a risk of frost damage; thus, we found May sowings to be the most effective. Additionally, sowing dates must be considered in terms of proper harvest stage, harvesting target (juice or grain), cultivation altitude, and microclimate.

Clinical Features and the Associated Factors of Staphylococcal Scalded Skin Syndrome during the Recent 10 Years (최근 10년간 포도알균 열상 피부 증후군의 발생 양상과 관련인자 분석)

  • Park, Chan Hee;Na, Se Rin;Cho, Hyung Min;Yoo, Eun Jung;Jung, Kwon;Kim, Eun Young;Kim, Yong Wook;Kim, Kyoung Sim
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.152-161
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : Staphylococcal scalded skin syndrome (4S) is uncommon, but reports of 4S are on the increase during the recent years. The purpose of this study is to determine the clinical features and associated factors of 4S during the recent 10 years. Methods : We retrospectively reviewed the medical records and microbiologic results of 63 patients (27 neonates and 36 children) from January 1998 to December 2007. Results : Since 2003, the incidence of 4S has increased. The mean age of the patients was 16.3 months and the gender ratio was 1:1. The clinical types of 4S were 38 cases of the abortive type (60%), 19 cases of the intermediate type (30%) and 6 cases of the generalized type (10%). The culture results were 36 cases of Methicillin resistant S. aureus (MRSA), 4 cases of Methicillin sensitive S. aureus and 17 cases of no growth. The patients were treated with semi-synthetic penicillin. For the 9 patients who had MRSA isolated and who didn't improve with penicillin, they were treated with vancomycin instead of penicillin. All the patients had no complications. 4S abruptly increased in 2005, and especially in neonates, due to an MRSA outbreak at a local nursery room. The associated factors of 4S in neonates were hospitalization (27 cases), including nursery infection in 2005 (18 cases) and dermatitis (1 case). There was an unknown origin for some children, and the suggested factors for their infection were community acquired infection (24 cases), atopic dermatitis (9 cases) and hospitalization (3 cases). Conclusion : 4S has recently been increasing. The major associated factors of 4S are a history of hospitalization, an outbreak in a nursery room, atopic dermatitis and community acquired infection.

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A survey on daily physical activity level, energy expenditure and dietary energy intake by university students in Chungnam Province in Korea (충남지역 대학생의 신체활동수준, 에너지소비량 및 에너지섭취량 조사)

  • Kim, Sun Hyo
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.346-356
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    • 2013
  • This study investigated the daily physical activity level, energy expenditure, energy balance, and body composition and their relationship with university students. The participants were 130 male students ($19.5{\pm}0.5$ yrs) and 139 female students ($19.5{\pm}0.3$ yrs) at a university in Chungnam province. Physical activity level was evaluated by an equation based on 24 hr-activity record and dietary nutrient intake was evaluated using the food record method during a three-day period consisting of two week days and one weekend. Body composition was measured using Inbody 430 (Biospace Co., Cheonan, Korea). As a result, mean body mass index (BMI) of subjects indicated that they had normal weight, however mean body fat ratio was $19.1{\pm}5.4%$ for males and $28.4{\pm}5.0%$ for females, indicating that they had higher than normal weight. Daily mean physical activity level was 1.55 for males and 1.47 for females, which was regarded as 'low active', respectively. Females had more light activity than males (p<0.01). Daily mean energy expenditure was $2,803.5{\pm}788.9$ kcal/d for males and $1,915.4{\pm}510.2$ kcal/d for females (p<0.001). Daily mean dietary energy intake was $2,327.0{\pm}562.5$ kcal/d for males and $1,802.1{\pm}523.6/d$ for females (p<0.001), and daily mean energy balance was $-476.5{\pm}955.9$ kcal/d for males and $-113.3{\pm}728.1$ kcal/d for females (p<0.01). Daily mean dietary intake of protein, vitamins, and minerals, except Ca, satisfied recommended nutrient intake. Daily energy expenditure was positively related to body weight (p<0.01), BMI (p<0.01), and fat free mass ratio (p<0.05), but was negatively related to body fat ratio (p<0.01). In conclusion, subjects had a negative energy balance and low physical activity. They had a normal weight by BMI but had a more fat than normal weight by body fat ratio. This appears to be related to their low physical activity. Thus, nutrition education should be provided for university students in order to increase their physical activity for maintenance of normal weight by body composition and health promotion.

Analysis and Improvement Strategies for Korea's Cyber Security Systems Regulations and Policies

  • Park, Dong-Kyun;Cho, Sung-Je;Soung, Jea-Hyen
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.18
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    • pp.169-190
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    • 2009
  • Today, the rapid advance of scientific technologies has brought about fundamental changes to the types and levels of terrorism while the war against the world more than one thousand small and big terrorists and crime organizations has already begun. A method highly likely to be employed by terrorist groups that are using 21st Century state of the art technology is cyber terrorism. In many instances, things that you could only imagine in reality could be made possible in the cyber space. An easy example would be to randomly alter a letter in the blood type of a terrorism subject in the health care data system, which could inflict harm to subjects and impact the overturning of the opponent's system or regime. The CIH Virus Crisis which occurred on April 26, 1999 had significant implications in various aspects. A virus program made of just a few lines by Taiwanese college students without any specific objective ended up spreading widely throughout the Internet, causing damage to 30,000 PCs in Korea and over 2 billion won in monetary damages in repairs and data recovery. Despite of such risks of cyber terrorism, a great number of Korean sites are employing loose security measures. In fact, there are many cases where a company with millions of subscribers has very slackened security systems. A nationwide preparation for cyber terrorism is called for. In this context, this research will analyze the current status of Korea's cyber security systems and its laws from a policy perspective, and move on to propose improvement strategies. This research suggests the following solutions. First, the National Cyber Security Management Act should be passed to have its effectiveness as the national cyber security management regulation. With the Act's establishment, a more efficient and proactive response to cyber security management will be made possible within a nationwide cyber security framework, and define its relationship with other related laws. The newly passed National Cyber Security Management Act will eliminate inefficiencies that are caused by functional redundancies dispersed across individual sectors in current legislation. Second, to ensure efficient nationwide cyber security management, national cyber security standards and models should be proposed; while at the same time a national cyber security management organizational structure should be established to implement national cyber security policies at each government-agencies and social-components. The National Cyber Security Center must serve as the comprehensive collection, analysis and processing point for national cyber crisis related information, oversee each government agency, and build collaborative relations with the private sector. Also, national and comprehensive response system in which both the private and public sectors participate should be set up, for advance detection and prevention of cyber crisis risks and for a consolidated and timely response using national resources in times of crisis.

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Health and nutrition intake status of the Korean elderly according to their food security level: data from the 7th Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES VII), 2016-2018 (식품안정성 수준에 따른 한국노인의 건강상태와 영양섭취현황: 제7기 (2016-2018) 국민건강영양조사 자료 활용)

  • Maeng, Ahreum;Lee, Jeehyun;Yoon, Eunju
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.179-198
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study examined general characteristics, health status, accessibility to medical services, health-related quality of life, dietary behavior, and energy and nutrient intakes of the elderly at different levels of food security utilizing data from the 7th Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2016-2018). Methods: The elderly subjects (1,721 males and 2,271 females) were divided into 3 groups (secure, mildly insecure, moderately/severely insecure) according to their food security levels. Health and nutrient status was determined using energy intake, nutrient density, the prevalence of insufficient nutrient intake, dietary behavior, and health status. Results: The elderly with food insecurities had a lower self-evaluated health status and a higher prevalence of physician-diagnosed chronic diseases such as arthritis, osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoporosis for males, and hypertension, stroke, arthritis, and osteoarthritis for females. The associated financial burden was the major reason for not accessing medical services in the food insecure group. Furthermore, the food insecure group had a higher risk of impaired health-related quality of life compared to the secure group. The proportion of subjects with an energy intake below the estimated energy requirement was higher in the food insecure group and a significantly higher prevalence of insufficient intake was observed for all the nutrients (proteins, vitamin A, vitamin B1, vitamin B2, niacin, vitamin C, calcium, and iron) assessed in this study compared to the food secure group. Conclusion: This study suggests that food insecurity poses a challenge to the health and nutritional status of the elderly population in Korea and needs proper management. It would be helpful to develop food and nutrition assistance programs to ensure the food stability of the elderly population and assure quality to address gaps in their nutrient intake.