• Title/Summary/Keyword: 위험도 경감정책

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Decision Support Model for Determining Public or Private Highway Investment Projects (고속도로 건설사업의 재정/민자 발주선택 의사결정 지원모델)

  • Yeo, Donghoon;Jeong, Wooyong;Han, Seung Heon;Lee, Young Cheon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.3D
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    • pp.381-389
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    • 2009
  • Korean government is investing 1.8 billion won on infrastructure and investment on PPP projects constitutes 16.3%. This phenomenon is to promote private investment as well as lessening government burdens of public budgeting. However, the only criterion to be considered is government financial status in selecting public or private highway investment projects. So systematic decision support model is required in choosing public or private highway investment projects. So, this paper suggests a systematic decision support model for deciding public or private highway investment at the early stage of project planning. Furthermore, this paper identifies key decision variables with respect to economic, politic, project management criterions based on the related literatures and feedbacks from experts. This paper analyzed 30 cases of government investment and PPP projects and got the survey result from highway specialists. As a result, this paper presents an interval with respect to economic criteria using mean and standard deviation and a logistic regression equation which can predict the possibility of PPP project. Through this study, decision maker of central or local government can decide public or PPP highway project more systematically and reasonably.

A Thermal Time-Driven Dormancy Index as a Complementary Criterion for Grape Vine Freeze Risk Evaluation (포도 동해위험 판정기준으로서 온도시간 기반의 휴면심도 이용)

  • Kwon, Eun-Young;Jung, Jea-Eun;Chung, U-Ran;Lee, Seung-Jong;Song, Gi-Cheol;Choi, Dong-Geun;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2006
  • Regardless of the recent observed warmer winters in Korea, more freeze injuries and associated economic losses are reported in fruit industry than ever before. Existing freeze-frost forecasting systems employ only daily minimum temperature for judging the potential damage on dormant flowering buds but cannot accommodate potential biological responses such as short-term acclimation of plants to severe weather episodes as well as annual variation in climate. We introduce 'dormancy depth', in addition to daily minimum temperature, as a complementary criterion for judging the potential damage of freezing temperatures on dormant flowering buds of grape vines. Dormancy depth can be estimated by a phonology model driven by daily maximum and minimum temperature and is expected to make a reasonable proxy for physiological tolerance of buds to low temperature. Dormancy depth at a selected site was estimated for a climatological normal year by this model, and we found a close similarity in time course change pattern between the estimated dormancy depth and the known cold tolerance of fruit trees. Inter-annual and spatial variation in dormancy depth were identified by this method, showing the feasibility of using dormancy depth as a proxy indicator for tolerance to low temperature during the winter season. The model was applied to 10 vineyards which were recently damaged by a cold spell, and a temperature-dormancy depth-freeze injury relationship was formulated into an exponential-saturation model which can be used for judging freeze risk under a given set of temperature and dormancy depth. Based on this model and the expected lowest temperature with a 10-year recurrence interval, a freeze risk probability map was produced for Hwaseong County, Korea. The results seemed to explain why the vineyards in the warmer part of Hwaseong County have been hit by more freeBe damage than those in the cooler part of the county. A dormancy depth-minimum temperature dual engine freeze warning system was designed for vineyards in major production counties in Korea by combining the site-specific dormancy depth and minimum temperature forecasts with the freeze risk model. In this system, daily accumulation of thermal time since last fall leads to the dormancy state (depth) for today. The regional minimum temperature forecast for tomorrow by the Korea Meteorological Administration is converted to the site specific forecast at a 30m resolution. These data are input to the freeze risk model and the percent damage probability is calculated for each grid cell and mapped for the entire county. Similar approaches may be used to develop freeze warning systems for other deciduous fruit trees.

Application of USDM Drought Severity Classification for South Korea Using a Bundle of Drought Indices (SPI, SC-PDSI, SPEI, EDDI, EDI) (다양한 가뭄지수(SPI, SC-PDSI, SPEI, EDDI, EDI)를 활용한 미국의 USDM 가뭄판단기준 적용)

  • Nam, Won-Ho;Svoboda, Mark D.;Fuchs, Brian A.;Hayes, Michael J.;Tadesse, Tsegaye
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.417-418
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    • 2018
  • 미국 국립가뭄경감센터 (National Drought Mitigation Center, NDMC)는 다양한 가뭄지수를 통합하여 미국 전역의 가뭄진행상황을 모니터링하고 가뭄대응정책 수립을 위한 주요 의사결정정보로 활용하고 있다. 대표적으로 1999년에 개발되어 현재까지 운영 중인 미국가뭄모니터 (United States Drought Monitor, USDM)는 미국 전역에 대하여 가뭄단계를 표시한 지도 (U.S. Drought Monitor map)를 매주 생성하여 제공하고 있다 (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/). 가뭄지표(drought index)는 가뭄의 현황과 시공간적인 전개 과정을 분석하고 정량적 가뭄심도 평가 및 가뭄대응계획 수립을 위한 도구로써 다양하게 개발되어 활용되고 있다. 가뭄의 정도를 정량화하기 위하여 개발된 다수의 가뭄지수는 대상과 평가방법에 따라 가뭄을 표현하는 특성이 서로 다르다. 하나의 가뭄지수로는 가뭄특성을 온전히 표현하기 어렵기 때문에, 최근에는 단일 가뭄지수에 의존하기 보다는 다수의 가뭄지수를 이용하되, 여러 가뭄지수 간의 특징을 고려하여 각 가뭄지수가 갖는 장단점을 상호 보완하여 사용하기를 권고하고 있다. USDM은 파머가뭄심도지수 (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI), Soil Moisture Model (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, CPC), 미 지리조사국의 하천유량 주간보고 (USGS Weekly Streamflow), 표준강수지수 (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI) 등의 주요 가뭄판단지표를 선정하고, 가뭄판단의 기준으로써 각 가뭄지수의 가뭄심도 (drought severity) 및 백분위수 (percentiles)로 등급을 구분하였다. 가뭄등급은 '정상 상태 (none)'를 포함하여 '비정상적인 건조 (abnormally dry, D0)'에서 최악의 가뭄상태를 의미하는 '이례적인 가뭄상태 (exceptional, D4)'에 이르는 6 단계로 구분하고, 정상상태를 제외한 5 단계의 통합가뭄단계로 표시한다. 우리나라에서는 기상청, 수자원공사, 농어촌공사에서 기상/수문/농업관련 가뭄지수의 위험지도를 실시간으로 제공하고 있으며, 각 지표별로 상이한 기준으로 가뭄을 판단하고 있다. 각각의 가뭄지표에 대한 가뭄판단기준은 해당 국가의 장기적으로 축적된 자료를 활용하여 가뭄단계 및 가뭄판단기준의 재설정에 대한 연구가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 SPI, SC-PDSI, 표준강수증발산지수 (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI), Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), 유효가뭄지수 (Effectvie Drought Index, EDI)의 다양한 가뭄지수를 활용하여 USDM의 가뭄심도 및 가뭄판단기준을 적용하고자한다.

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Health Improvement; Health Education, Health Promotion and the Settings Approach (건강 향상: 건강 교육, 건강 증진 및 배경적 접근)

  • Green, Jackie
    • Proceedings of The Korean Society of Health Promotion Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.111-129
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    • 2004
  • This paper develops the argument that the 'Healthy Cities Approach' extends beyond the boundaries of officially designated Healthy Cities and suggests that signs of it are evident much more widely in efforts to promote health in the United Kingdom and in national policy. It draws on examples from Leeds, a major city in the north of England. In particular, it suggests that efforts to improve population health need to focus on the wider determinants and that this requires a collaborative response involving a range of different sectors and the participation of the community. Inequality is recognised as a major issue and the need to identify areas of deprivation and direct resources towards these is emphasised. Childhood poverty is referred to and the importance of breaking cycles of deprivation. The role of the school is seen as important in contributing to health generally and the compatibility between Healthy Cities and Health Promoting Schools is noted. Not only can Health Promoting Schools improve the health of young people themselves they can also develop the skills, awareness and motivation to improve the health of the community. Using child pedestrian injury as an example, the paper argues that problems and their cause should not be conceived narrowly. The Healthy Cities movement has taught us that the response, if it is to be effective, should focus on the wider determinants and be adapted to local circumstances. Instead of simply attempting to change behaviour through traditional health education we need to ensure that the environment is healthy in itself and supports healthy behaviour. To achieve this we need to develop awareness, skills and motivation among policy makers, professionals and the community. The 'New Health' education is proposed as a term to distinguish the type of health education which addresses these issues from more traditional forms.

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International Space Law on the Protection of the Environment (환경보호에 관한 국제 우주법연구)

  • Kim, Han-Taek
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.205-236
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    • 2010
  • This article deals with international space law for the environmental protection in outer space especially for space debris arising from space activities. After studying 1967 Outer Space Treaty, 1968 Rescue Agreement, 1972 Liability Convention, 1975 Registration Convention and 1979 Moon Agreement, we could find few provisions dealing with space environment in those treaties. During the earlier stages of the space age, which began in the late 1950s, the focus of international law makers was the establishment of the basic rules of space law governing the states' activities in outer space. Consequently the environmental issues and the risks that might arise from the generation of the space debris did not receive priority attention within the context of the development international space law. Although the phrases such as 'harmful contamination', 'harmful interference', 'disruption of the environment', 'adverse changes in the environment' and 'harmfully affecting' in relation to space environment were used in 1967 Outer Space Treaty and 1979 Moon Agreement, their true meaning was not definitely settled. Although 1972 Liability Convention deals with compensation, whether the space object covers space debris is unclear despite the case of Cosmos 954. In this respect international lawyers suggest the amendment of the space treaties and new space treaty covering the space environmental problems including the space debris. The resolutions, guidelines and draft convention are also studied to deal with space environment and space debris. In 1992 the General Assembly of the United Nations passed resolution 47/68 titled "Principles Relevant to the Use of Nuclear Power Sources in Outer Space" for the NPS use in outer space. The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee; IADC) issued some guidelines for the space debris which were the basis of "the UN Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines" approved by COPUOS in its 527th meeting. In 1994 the 66th conference of ILA adopted "International Instrument on the Protection of the Environment from Damage Caused by Space Debris". Although those resolutions, guidelines and draft convention are not binding states, there are some provisions which have a fundamentally norm-creating character and softs laws.

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