• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.1 no.1 s.1
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• pp.63-71
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• 2000

The paper considers two non-deterministic methods of analysing the risk exposure in a cost estimate The fist method(referred to as the 'conventional statistical' method) analyses cost data directly, to describe a probability distribution for total cost. The second method(referred to as the 'Monte Carlo simulation' method) interprets cost data directly, to generate a probability distribution for total costs from the descriptions of elemental cost distribution. The common practice of allowing for risk through an all-embracing contingency sum or percentage addition is challenged. Rather than excluding conventional, non-deterministic methods, they are here presented as possibly the only of effective foundation on which to risk management in cost estimating.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.681-696
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• 2010

This paper aims to evaluate the importance of risk factors at each stage of real estate development projects, and to propose risk management plans. For this purpose, possible risk factors at each stage of real estate development projects are extracted through previous studies, questionnaire survey by real estate experts is conducted next. And finally, the importance of risk factors at each stage evaluated using the AHP method. The results of this study are as follows. First, according to the results of evaluating the risk factors by main categories, planning risks in predevelopment stage, licensing risks in developing preparation stage, and cash flow risk in development stage are appreciated as most important risks. Second, according to the results by sub categories, changes in consumer preferences in pre-development stage, contracts and licensing-related work in developing preparation stage, bankruptcy of developers and construction companies in development stage, and compensation for any kinds of accidents in management and operation stage are appreciated as most important risks. Third, the major risk management plans at each stage based on the analysis results are suggested.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.6
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• pp.421-435
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• 2022

As natural disasters have been increasing due to climate change, sustainable solutions are in need to alleviate the degree of drought hazard, assess and project the drought influence based on future climate change scenarios. In assessing drought risk, socio-economic factors of the region must be considered along with meteorological factors. This study categorized drought hazard, exposure, and vulnerability as three major components of drought risk according to the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC) risk assessment framework, and selected indices for each component to quantify the drought risk in South Korea according to the mid-size basins. Combinations of climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and socio-economic scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways; SSP 1, SSP2 and SSP3) for the near future (2030-2050) ant the far future (2080-2099) were utilized in drought risk analysis, and results were compared with the historical data (1986-2005). In general, the drought risks for all scenarios shows large increases as time proceeds to the far furture. In addition, we analyzed the rank of drought hazard, exposure, vulnerability for drought risk, and each of their contribution. The results showed that the drought hazard is the most contributing component to the increase of drought risk in future and each basin shows varying contributing components. Finally, we suggested countermeasures for each basin according to future climate change scenarios, and thus this study provides made the basis for establishing drought management measures.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.809-822
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• 2018

A quantitative risk assessment has been introduced to quantitatively evaluate fire risk as a means of performance based fire protection design in the design of railway tunnel disaster prevention facilities. However, there are insufficient studies to examine the effect of various risk factors on the risk. Therefore, in this study, the risk assessment was conducted on the model tunnel in order to examine the effects of the evacuation start time delay and the fire growth curve on the quantitative risk assessment. As a result of the analysis of the scenario, the fatalities occurred mainly when escapes in the same direction as the direction of the fire smoke movement. In addition, after the FED exceeded 0.3, the maximum fatalities occurred within 10 minutes. In the range of relatively low risk, distance between cross passages, evacuation delay time and fire growth curve were found to affect the risk, but they were found to have little effect on the condition that the risk reached the limit. Especially, in this study, it was evaluated that the evacuation delay time reduction, fire intensity and duration reduction effect were not observed when the distance between cross passages was more than 1500 m.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.41-48
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• 2020

This study performed a quantitative risk assessment for hydrogen-CNG complex refueling stations. Individual and societal risks were calculated by deriving accident scenarios that could occur at hydrogen and CNG refueling stations and by considering the frequency of accidents occurring for each scenario. As a result of the risk assessment, societal risk levels were within the acceptable range. However, individual risk has occurred outside the allowable range in some areas. To identify and manage risk components, high risk components were discovered through risk contribution analysis. High risks at the hydrogen-CNG complex refueling station were large leakage from CNG storage containers, compressors, and control panels. The sum of these risks contributed to approximately 88% of the overall risk of the fueling station. Therefore, periodic and intensive safety management should be performed for these high-risk elements.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.61-68
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• 2014

The main objective of this study is to evaluate the preliminary landslide hazard based on the identification of geomorphological features, which are believed to be critical values in the initial state of landslides. Two methods, SINMAP and Planarity analyses, are used to simulate those characteristics where landslides are actually located. Results showed that both methods well discriminate geomorphic features between stable and unstable domains in the landslide areas. SINMAP analysis which is the consecutive model considering external factors like infiltration identifies the landslide hazard especially for debris flow type landslides better than plararity analysis focusing on a specific area. This analysis combined with other methods dealing with specific characteristics of geomorphological feature, the accurate landslide hazard will be evaluated.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Industrial Safety Conference
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• 2002.11a
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• pp.377-383
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• 2002

기술전문인력이 없는 중소기업에서도 활용할 수 있는 산업용 위험기계의 위험성평가 체크리스트를 개발하기 위하여, 기존의 체크리스트를 평가하고 위험도를 보다 합리적으로 파악 관리할 수 있는 간단한 체크리스트를 개발하였다. 제조물책임법의 시행을 앞둔 시점에서 산업용기계ㆍ설비 제조업체가 안전성향상을 통한 제조물 결함대책에 적절히 대응할 자료의 마련을 목적으로 우리업계의 실태를 파악하고 설계단계의 안전성 평가방법과 안전기준을 제시함으로서 제조물책임법 시행에 따르는 기업의 피해를 예방함과 아울러 산업재해 예방에 기여하고자 한다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2023.11a
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• pp.222-224
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• 2023

자율운항선박의 해상 운용은 인간의 개입 최소화 등 새로운 운용 방식의 적용과 첨단 디지털기술의 적용으로 기존 선박의 운용과 다른 형태의 다양한 새로운 위험요소들이 발생할 것으로 예상되며, 이러한 위험을 분석하기 위한 적절한 위험도평가 방법론의 적용이 요구될 것이다. 본 연구는 기존 선박과 달리 인간의 개입이 최소화된 상태로 운용되는 자율운항선박의 화재 사고 위험도를 실시간으로 분석하기 위한 실시간 위험도 모델의 개발을 목적으로 수행되었다. 자율운항선박 화재 위험도 모델 개발을 위하여, 먼저 자율운항선박의 화재 감지 및 제어, 비상대응 기능들을 분석하고, 기능분석 결과를 바탕으로 화재 감지 및 제어 시스템들에 대한 Fault Tree Analysis를 수행하였다. 자율운항선박의 화재 시나리오 표현을 위하여 기관구역 화재와 화물구역 화재로 분류하여 Event Tree Analysis를 수행하였다. 또한, 자율운항선박 운용 외부 조건에 따라 변화하는 변수들을 식별하여 각 변수들의 변화로 인하여 발생할 수 있는 자율운항선박 화재 위험도 변화량을 검토하였다.

• Journal of Korean Society of societal Security
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• v.1 no.3
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• pp.69-76
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• 2008

The object of this study is to develop a tool for quantifying risks related to the rail transportation of hazardous commodities and to present mitigation measures. In this study, the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is used as a risk analysis tool. Based on the previous explosion history (Iri explosion) and consideration of its high risk, Iksan-si is selected as a model city. The result, expressed as average individual risk for exposed people with various distance, indicates that the model city is considered to be safe according to the nuclear energy standard. Also, the mitigation measures are provided since Societal risk of Iksan-si is set within ALARP. Risk reduction measures include rail car design, rail transportation operation, demage spread control as well as derail prevention and alternative routes for reducing accident frequencies. Finally, it is expected to achieve high level of public safety by appling the risk reduction measures.

• Spatial Information Research
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.39-48
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• 2015

In this study, we evaluated flood risk by applying calculation fomula considering practical risk calculated by inundation analysis information through 2D inundation analysis, suggested a plan that provides a standardized information system. Generally, we evaluated flood risk to people and classified four degrees by using inundation depth, velocity, Debris Factor and Flood Hazard Rating relationship because current flood risk assessment method based inundation depth and area was considered to not fully reflect the actual risk to people on flood. We simulated overflow and levee break scenarios according to 500 year and 200 year floods, respectively, by using Flumen which is a 2D flood inundation model for Geumho river basin in Daegu. The result of this study could contribute to inform practical risk information to people in expected flood area. This study can be useful for the fields of disaster estimatingsuch as information analysis, evaluation, planning by offering Risk information based on standardized information system.