• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2017.11a
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• pp.48-49
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• 2017

This study is about the development of emergency response guidance by safety index of seakeeping performance which is based on emergency response procedures in the ship through HAZID. These emergency response guidances will contribute to respond ship's abnormal conditions related to seakeeping performance effectively and efficiently to reduce marine accidents.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.167-173
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• 2023

The manufacturing industry is the backbone of the Korean economy. Among them, the petrochemical industry is a strategic growth industry, which makes a profit through reexports based on eminent technology in South Korea which imports all of its crude oil. South Korea imports whole amount of crude oil, which is the raw material for many manufacturing industries, by sea transportation. Therefore, it must respond swiftly to a highly volatile tanker freight market. This study aimed to make an early warning model of crude oil shipping market using a signal approach. The crisis of crude oil shipping market is defined by BDTI. The overall leading index is made of 38 factors from macro economy, financial data, and shipping market data. Only leading correlation factors were chosen to be used for the overall leading index. The overall leading index had the highest correlation coefficient factor of 0.499 two months ago. It showed a significant correlation coefficient five months ago. The QPS value was 0.13, which was found to have high accuracy for crisis prediction. Furthermore, unlike other previous time series forecasting model studies, this study quantitatively approached the time lag between economic crisis and the crisis of the tanker ship market, providing workers and policy makers in the shipping industry with an framework for strategies that could effectively deal with the crisis.

• 해운
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• s.89
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• pp.10-18
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• 2012

BDI지수가 지난 2월3일 647p를 기록한 이후 소폭 반등하여 2월23일 706p를 기록했다. 1985년 발틱해운거래소가 건화물 운임지수 BFI를 발표한 이후 1986년 8월27일 645p 이후 역사적으로 최저치를 기록하였다. 한편 2월3일 BDI가 저점을 확인하고 소폭 반등하였으나, 파나막스 선형이 저점 대비 1,462달러/일 상승했으나, 타 선형의 반등폭이 매우 미미한 상황이다. 다음은 한국해양수산개발원에서 발표한 "해운시황 : 위기와 기회"의 주요 내용을 요약정리한 것이다.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.43-54
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• 2013

This This paper investigates the variation of the factors to determinate housing price in Seoul metropolitan area after sub-prime financial crisis, in Korea, using a VAR model. The model includes housing price and housing rent (Jeonse) in Seoul metropolitan area from 1999 to 2011, and uses interest rate, real GDP, KOSPI, Producer Price Index and practices to impulse response and variance decomposition analysis to grasp the dynamic relation between a variable of macro economy and and a variable of housing price. Data is classified to 2 groups before and after the 3rd quater of 2008, when sub-prime crisis occurred; one is from the 1st quater of 1999 to the 3rd quater of 2008, and the other is from the 2nd quater of 1999 and the 4th quater of 2011. As a result, comparing before and after sub-prime crisis, housing price is more influenced by its own variation or Jeonse price's variation instead of interest rate and KOSPI. Both before and after sub-prime financial crisis, Jeonse price is also influenced by its own variation and housing price. While after sub-prime financial crisis, influences of Producer Price Index, KOSPI and interest rate were weakened, influence of real GDP is expanded. As housing price and housing rent are more influenced by real economy factors such as GDP, its own variation than before sub-prime financial crisis, the recent trend that the house prices is declined is difficult to be converted, considering domestic economic recession and uncertainty, continued by Europe financial crisis. In the future to activate the housing business, it ia necessary to promote purchasing power rather than relaxation of financial and supply regulation.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.405-415
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• 2010

To assess the possible collision risk between Mokpo Harbour Bridge, which is under construction, and passing vessels, we proposed Real-Time Bridge-Vessel Collision Model (RT-BVCM) in this paper. The mathematical model of RT-BVCM consists of the causation probability by the vessel aberrancy due to navigation environments, the geometric probability by the structural feature of a bridge relative to a ship size and, the failure probability by the ship collision track and the stopping distance which is not to come to a stop before hitting the obstacles. Then, the probabilistic mathematical model represented as risk index with the risk level from 1 to 5. The merit of the proposed model to the collision model proposed by AASHTO (American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials) is that it can provide enough time to take adequate collision avoiding action. Through the simulation tests to the two kinds of test ships, 3,000 GT and 10,000 GT, it is cleary found that the proposed model can be used as a collision evaluation model to the passing vessel and Mokpo Harbour Bridge.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.135-157
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• 2002

이 논문은 1994년 1월초부터 2001년 6월말까지 미국의 S&P 500지수와 6개 아시아 신흥시장 (한국, 타이완, 홍콩, 싱가폴, 타일랜드, 말레이시아)의 대표적 주가지수의 일간수익률 자료를 이용하여 미국 주식시장으로부터 아시아 신흥시장국가에로의 정보이전 효과를 분석하였다. 이를 위해 조건부변동성을 포함하는 시계열모형을 추정하여 미국 주식시장으로부터의 수익률충격과 변동성충격을 구하였다. 그 결과, 타이완을 제외한 다른 5개국에서 강한 평균이전 효과가 관찰되고 있고, 타일랜드를 제외한 다른 모든 나라에서 (+)의 변동성이전 효과가 관찰되고 있으므로, 대체로 미국 주식시장으로부터 아시아 신흥시장에로의 정보이전 효과가 상당히 강하게 존재한다고 볼 수 있다. 한국의 경우 외환위기 이후 평균이전 효과가 크게 증가하였지만 다른 나라에서는 그렇지 않았다. 또 외환위기 이후 타이완과 홍콩에서는 변동성이전 효과가 감소하였지만, 타일랜드와 말레이시아에서는 (+)값으로 바뀌어 일관성 있는 결과가 관찰되지 않고 있다. 따라서 1997년 아시아지역에서 발생한 외환위기가 정보이전 효과를 촉진하는 계기를 제공하였다고 보기 어렵다.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.22 no.7
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• pp.791-799
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• 2016

The purpose of this work is to analyse the impact of new accident risks on maritime safety in Korea. The new accident risks have been induced from new/rare or unprecedented events in world maritime transportation, as identified by 46 experts in the previous study. To measure the impact of these new accident risks on maritime safety in Korea, the statistical accident data reported by the Korean Maritime Safety Tribunals (KMST) has been used for calculation, and the concept of Risk Index (RI) = Frequency Index (FI) + Severity Index (SI)established in a Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the IMO has also been introduced. After calculating two kinds of weight for FI and SI from the statistical accident data, high ranked scenarios were identified and their relationships between new risks and these scenarios were analysed. The results from this analysis showed, the root cause of the top-ranked scenario to be "developing high technology", which leads to "shorten cargo handling time". These results differed from optimum RCOs such as "business competition" and "crewing problems" which were identified in the previous study.

• 월간 기계설비
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• s.232
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• pp.90-91
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• 2009

국내는 물론이고 세계 주요 국의 주가 지수가 금융 위기 이전으로 회복됐다고 말한다. 물론 우리가 느끼는 실물경기하고는 크게 거리가 있다. 하지만 환란이나 금융위기가 순식간에 닥쳐 왔듯 기회도 생각지 못한 때에 찾아 올 것이다. 다소 막연하고 시기상조인 듯 하지만 경기, 특히 우리 설비건설 업계에 언젠가 따뜻한 햇볕이 든다면 그 혜택을 누릴 준비가 됐는지 점검할 때라고 생각한다. 건설업의 활황에는 반드시 자재 가격 폭등 및 품귀가 따라 오기 때문이다.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.13 no.8
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• pp.153-160
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• 2015

The domestic stock market has been subjected to a major change since the September 1997 financial crisis. Foreign capital came repeat themselves in the stock market and bond market, foreign exchange market opening up domestic financial markets after the financial crisis. The domestic stock market has been most affected by domestic capital before the financial crisis. But it has been receiving an absolute influenced by foreign capital after the financial crisis. The purpose of this study is to analyze the trends in the two sections that look at any changes in the volatility of the KOSPI appears after the crisis. To this, obtained a daily weekly monthly normal distribution and kurtosis, skewness degree it should be analyze the tilt phenomenon and variability of the two intervals. This study also predict the future movement of the domestic stock market Based on this, look at the difference between the two sections. Analysis result, after the financial crisis change width has a reduction but direction of the KOSPI has appeared relatively distinct in the medium to long term. Based on this future market seems desirable the mid- to long-term investment looking for direction.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.335-351
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• 2011

In order to resolve data scarcity problem related to crisis, Oh and Kim (2007) proposed to use stability oriented approach which focuses a base period of financial market, fits asymptotic stationary autoregressive model to the base period and then compares the fitted model with the current market situation. Based on such approach, they developed financial market instability index. However, since neural network, their major tool, depends on the base period too heavily, their instability index tends to suffer from inaccuracy. In this study, we consider linear asymptotic stationary autoregressive model and neural network to fit the base period and produce two instability indexes independently. Then the two indexes are combined into one integrated instability index via newly proposed combining method. It turns out that the combined instability performs reliably well.