• Title/Summary/Keyword: 요일간 변동성

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Cyanobacterial Blooms and Water Quality of Major Recreational Park Ponds in the Capital Region (수도권 주요 공원 연못의 수질 특성과 남조류 대발생)

  • Park, Myung-Hwan;Suh, Mi-Yeon;Hwang, Soon-Jin;Kim, Yong-Jae;Han, Myung-Soo;Kim, Baik-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.54-65
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    • 2008
  • The seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton and water quality were evaluated bimonthly at 7 park ponds in the capital region from October 2004 to August 2005. With out the change of water temperature $(0.4\sim26.0^{\circ}C)$, cyanobacteria dominated in park ponds such as Gyungbokgung Gyunghyaeru and Seokchon reservoir. The standing crops of phytoplankton was significant related with cell densities of cyanobacteria (r=0.993), while they did not significant correlation with environmental factors. Almost of all park ponds in the capital region were classified as eutrophic state with high TP concentrations and TN/TP ratios less than 10. Major dominant cyanobacteria were as followed; Anabaena sp., Aphanocapsa elachista, Lyngbya contorta, Merismopedia elegans, Microcystis aeruginosa, M. wesenbergii, Microcystis sp., Oscillatoria sp., Phormidium tenue, and Plectonema sp. To date, although the concentration of chlorophyll-${\alpha}$ and cyanobacterial densities in the capital region was below the 'danger' level of WHO guidelines value, the monitoring of cyanobacterial densities and its toxin (microcystin) in recreational/bath water should be continued.

An Analysis on Determinants of the Capesize Freight Rate and Forecasting Models (케이프선 시장 운임의 결정요인 및 운임예측 모형 분석)

  • Lim, Sang-Seop;Yun, Hee-Sung
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.539-545
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    • 2018
  • In recent years, research on shipping market forecasting with the employment of non-linear AI models has attracted significant interest. In previous studies, input variables were selected with reference to past papers or by relying on the intuitions of the researchers. This paper attempts to address this issue by applying the stepwise regression model and the random forest model to the Cape-size bulk carrier market. The Cape market was selected due to the simplicity of its supply and demand structure. The preliminary selection of the determinants resulted in 16 variables. In the next stage, 8 features from the stepwise regression model and 10 features from the random forest model were screened as important determinants. The chosen variables were used to test both models. Based on the analysis of the models, it was observed that the random forest model outperforms the stepwise regression model. This research is significant because it provides a scientific basis which can be used to find the determinants in shipping market forecasting, and utilize a machine-learning model in the process. The results of this research can be used to enhance the decisions of chartering desks by offering a guideline for market analysis.

Factor Analysis Affecting on Changes in Handysize Freight Index and Spot Trip Charterage (핸디사이즈 운임지수 및 스팟용선료 변화에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Kim, Tae-Woo;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.73-89
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    • 2021
  • The handysize bulk carriers are capable of transporting a variety of cargo that cannot be transported by mid-large size ship, and the spot chartering market is active, and it is a market that is independent of mid-large size market, and is more risky due to market conditions and charterage variability. In this study, Granger causality test, the Impulse Response Function(IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition(FEVD) were performed using monthly time series data. As a result of Granger causality test, coal price for coke making, Japan steel plate commodity price, hot rolled steel sheet price, fleet volume and bunker price have causality to Baltic Handysize Index(BHSI) and charterage. After confirming the appropriate lag and stability of the Vector Autoregressive model(VAR), IRF and FEVD were analyzed. As a result of IRF, the three variables of coal price for coke making, hot rolled steel sheet price and bunker price were found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. Among them, the impulse of hot rolled steel sheet price was found to have the most significant effect. As a result of FEVD, the explanatory power that affects BHSI and charterage is the same in the order of hot rolled steel sheet price, coal price for coke making, bunker price, Japan steel plate price, and fleet volume. It was found that it gradually increased, affecting BHSI by 30% and charterage by 26%. In order to differentiate from previous studies and to find out the effect of short term lag, analysis was performed using monthly price data of major cargoes for Handysize bulk carriers, and meaningful results were derived that can predict monthly market conditions. This study can be helpful in predicting the short term market conditions for shipping companies that operate Handysize bulk carriers and concerned parties in the handysize chartering market.

Variation and Forecast of Rural Population in Korea: 1960-1985 (농촌인구(農村人口)의 변화(變化)와 예측(豫測))

  • Kwon, Yong Duk;Choi, Kyu Seob
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • v.8
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    • pp.129-138
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    • 1990
  • This study investigated the relationship between the cutflow of rural population and agricultural policy by using time series method. For the analytical tools, decomposition time series methods and regression technique were employed in computing seasonal fluctuation and cyclical fluctuation of population migration. Also, this study predicted farmhouse, rural population till the 2000's by means of the mathematical methods. The analytical forms employed in forecasting farmhouse, rural population were Exponential curve, Gompertz curve and Transcendental form. The major findings of this study were identified as follows: 1) Rural population and farmhouse population began to decrease from 1965 and hastily went down since 1975. Rural population which accounted for 36.4 percent, 35.6 percent of national population respectively in 1960 diminished about two times: 17.5 percent, 17.1 percent respectively. 2) The rapid decreasing of the rural population was caused because of the outflow of rural people to the urban regions. Of course, that was also caused from the natural decreases but the main reason was heavily affected more the former than the latter. In the outflowing course shaped from rural to the urban regions, rural people concentrated on such metropolis as Seoul, Pusan, Keanggi. But these trends were diminishing slowly. On the other hand, compared with that of the 1970's the migration to Keanggi was still increasing in the 1980's. That is, people altered the way of migration from the migration to Seoul, Pusan to the migration to the out-skirts of Seoul. 3) The seasonal fluctuation index of population migration has gone down since the June which the request of agricultural labor force increases and has turned to be greatly wanted in the March as result of decomposition time series method. As result of cyclical analysis, the cyclical patterns of migration have greatly 7 cycle. 4) As result of forecasting the rural and farmhouse population, rural and farmhouse population in the 2000 will be about 9,655(thousand/people) and 4,429(thousand/people) respectively. Thus, it is important to analyze the probloms that rural and farmhouse population will decrease or increase by the degree. But fairly defining the agricultural into a industry that supply the food, this problem - how much our nation need the rural and farmhouse population - is greatly significant too. Therefore, the basic problems of the agricultural including the outflows of rural people are the earning differentials between rural and urban regions. And we should regard the problems of the gap of relative incomes between rural and urban regions as the main task of the agricultural policy and treat the agricultural policy in the viewpoint of developing economic equilibrium than efficiency by using actively the natural resources of the rural regions.

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Chemical Factors of Soil Associated with the Prediction Model for Fertilizer Need of N and K in Flooded Rice based on the Multinutrient Factor Balance Concept (다요인조절개념하(多要因調節槪念下)에서의 수도(水稻) N. K 시비적량여측(施肥適量予測) 모형식(模型式)에 관여(關與)하는 토양화학적(土壤化學的) 요인(要因))

  • Park, Chon-Suh
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.210-222
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    • 1983
  • The chemical factors of topsoil, which are associated with the prediction models of urea nitrogen (N kg/ha) need under the concept of multinutrient factor balance in soil to maintain optimum nutrient balance in rice plant grown in flooded condition, were the x/z and the Kas/Kai values. In the prediction model or equation $NRe=(58.5+0.647x/z){\cdot}F$, the F was difined as the productivity factor, which was considered to be dependent on the variety, climate and soil, and found to be better estimated as the function of Kas/Kai rather than x/z from the equation Fb=0.65+1.086kas/kai, where the x, z, Kas and Kai, respectively, were available $SiO_2$ ppm, % organic matter, K activity ratio or exchangeable $K^+/(\sqrt{Ca+Mg}+Na^+)$ in topsoil and the ideal K activity ratio determined by the equation Kai=0.03+0.00083x/z for standard variety Jinheung. The relative K activity ratio or Kas/kai in topsoil, which have to be equal to 1.0 in the prediction of K fertilizer need for standard Japonica Variety Jinheung, found to be 1.63 for the varieties of Indica ${\times}$ Japonica or Milyang No. 23 grown in Korean condition and 0.322 for the Indica varieties of IR 8, 20, 36 and 42 gown in the Philippines condition. The ideal K activity rations for different Varieties such as Indies ${\times}$ Japonica grown in Korea or $Kai_1$ and Indica grown in the Philippines or $Kai_2$ were computed to be estimated from the following equations respectively ; $\\Kai_1=0.0489+0.001353X/Z\\Kai_2=0.01+0.000267X/Z$.

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Dynamic Forecasting of Market Growth according to Portable Internet Carrier Licensing Policy (휴대인터넷 사업자 선정 정책에 따른 동태적 시장 예측과 함의)

  • 김종태;박상현;오명륜;김상욱
    • Proceedings of the Korean System Dynamics Society
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    • 2004.08a
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    • pp.87-107
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    • 2004
  • 우리나라에 이동통신이 처음 소개된 이래로 눈부신 발전을 거듭하여 왔으며, 급기야. 무선통신 서비스를 중심으로 새로운 성장력과 패러다임 전환의 가능성에 대한 전망을 논할 수 있는 수준이 되었다. 이러한 추세에 맞추어 휴대인터넷 시장에 대한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있으며 국민경제적 효과변화나 시장 경쟁환경의 변화에 가장 영향을 미칠 수 있는 요인들 중, 사업자 수를 어떻게 선정할 것인가에 대해 다양한 접근이 시도되고 있다. 기존의 연구들은 휴대인터넷 시장을 분석하는데 있어 시장규모가 일방향으로 사업자 수에 영향을 미친다는 측면에서 이루어지고 있으며, 대부분 휴대인터넷 시장을 단일시장으로 범위를 한정하고 성장중인 시장을 정적으로 가정하여 시장성장 추이 분석 등에 주안점을 두는 단편적 연구가 수행되어져 왔다. 휴대인터넷 시장의 단편적 분석이 아닌 '모바일인터넷' , '초고속유선인터넷', '무선인터넷', '휴대인터넷' 등 네 가지 영역을 동시에 고려함으로써 영역간 복잡성과 동적인 관계 속에서 시장이 성장해 나아간다는 가정을 바탕으로, 시장에 내재되어 있는 관련요소간 상호영향과 신규정책 및 제도적 변화 수용에 있어 발생하는 시간적 공간적 지연 등을 고려한 동태적 분석을 수행하였다. 연구를 수행하기 위해 다양한 변수간의 인과관계, 피드백 구조와 시간흐름에 따른 시스템의 변화를 파악하는데 매우 유용한 도구인 시스템다이내믹스 기법을 활용하여 휴대 인터넷 시장의 동적인 구조를 알아보고 사업자 선정정책의 시행을 앞두고 있는 현재시점에서 의미있는 시사점을 제공하였다.시하고자 한다.채취하여 임신진단키트(제네디아프로테 트, 녹십자)를 이용하여 임신여부를 1차적으로 확인하였다. 과배란을 유기한 13두의 공란우중 9두(69.2%)가 과배란 반응을 나타내었으며, 회수된 수정란 51개중 이식가능수정란은 38개(74.5%) 였다. 발정동기화를 유도한 수란우 40두중에서 35두(87.5%)가 발정이 동기화되었으며, 그 중 황체검사를 통하여 30두의 수란우에 수정란을 이식하였다. 수정란이식후 13일(발정주기 21일)에 혈액을 이용한 임신진단에서 농가별 수태율은 각각 37.5%, 70.0%, 60.0% 및 71.4% 로서 평균 60.0%를 나타내었다.서 39$^{\circ}C$, 5% $CO_2$ 배양기에 48시간 배양하면서 생존여부를 판단하였다. 실험 2에서 확장배반포배 수정란이 25.3%의 생존율을 나타내었으며, 실험 1과 실험 3에서는 수정란의 형태와 관계없이 생존성을 확인할 수 없었다. 이상의 결과로 보아 glycerol 완만동결에서는 확장배반포기 수정란 이상이 보존가능한 것으로 추정되나 더 추가적인 연구가 요구된다.c kinase 활성의 변동은 정소 내 간충조직, 세정관 상피의 증식 및 기능적 분화 과정을 매개하는 생리적 활성분자 수용체 하위의 신호전달 과정에 Src-Csk loop에 의한 조절가능성을 확인할 수 있었다.rugrene의 향기성분이 주요 성분군으로 확인되었다. 2. 생강나무에서 생강의 향기를 발산하는 성분으로는 $\beta$-myrcene, o-terpinolene, phellandrone, ι-limonene, $\b

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The factors influencing the quantity of Phoria: I. A study of effects to the quantity of Phoria by the refractive error and the conformity to the optical center and the pupillary center (사위량에 영향을 미치는 요인: I. 굴절이상, 동공중심과 광학중심의 일치에 따른 연구)

  • Kim, Jung-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.361-370
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcome and Factors that influence the quantity of Phoria in the low correction and perfect correction. Also the coincidence with the opticenter and the pupillary distance was a principal factor that influence the quantity of Phoria. Thereupon, this study is attributed to promote the perfect Phoria test. The subjects for this study were 120 persons(240 eye) in myopic refractive errors. ISP/WIN program was used for the data analysis. The collected data was analyzed by descriptive statistics and Spearman's correlation coefficient. The results of this study were as follows: 1. The prism pattern was difference between low correction and perfect correction in the Phoria test. The proportion of orthophoria was changed from 10.0% to 12.5%, exophoria was changed from 67.5% to 62.5%, and esophoria was changed from 22.0% to 32.5%, respectively. 2. The average of optical center distance and pupillary distance were 31.70mm and 31.49 mm, respectively. 3. Among the 120 myopic glasses wearers, the distance between optical centers was coincided with the pupillary distance in 37.5%, and discrepant in 62.5%. 4. For the patients who were coincided with the pupillary distance, the proportion of exophoria decreased 53.33%, esophoria increased 20.0%. 5. For the changing of the quantity of Phoria in the low correction, the degree of exophoria decreased 1.11 prism diopters in the perfect correction, esophoria increased 0.39 prism diopters.

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A Study on Depression in College Freshmen (우울척도에 의한 대학신입생의 정신건강 평가)

  • Lee, Jong-Bum;Suh, Hye-Soo;Cheung, Seung-Douk
    • Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.151-160
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    • 1986
  • The authors studied depression using Zung's Self-Rating Depression Scale(SDS), in the subjects of 3,499 male and 1,335 female college freshmen of Yeungnam University. The authors collected the reports of SDS during the periods from January to February, 1986, and applied ANOVA and t-test on depression scores in order to compare them between various psychosocial factors, and sexes. The results are as follows : There was significant difference in the mean averages of total depression scores between male and female students: male students scored 35.68+7.46, female students scored 38.93+7.26(P<0.001). The depression scores relating to the items of indecisiveness, psychomotor retardation, decreased libido, and diurnal variation were relatively higher in both groups. One hundred and sixty-one male students(4.6%) showed seriously high degree depression scores of 50 or higher, while one-hundred and seventeen female students(5.8%) showed the same scores. Female students attending in liberal arts showed higher level of depression scores(P<0.01). There was a strong tendency toward higher depression scores in the student who were dissatisfied with their home atmosphere, colleges, department and familiarity of parents, and those who had pessimistic views of self image in the past, present or future in both groups(P<0.001).

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Vegetation Structure in Otter (Lutra lutra) Home Range of Hwacheon, Gangwon-do (강원도 화천군 수달(Lutra lutra) 서식지의 식생 구조)

  • Seo, Hyungsoo;Shin, Youngseob;Lee, Kyungeun;Kim, Yoonmi;Jeon, Mina;Nam, Taek-Woo;Han, Sung-Yong;Choung, Yeonsook
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.47 no.spc
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    • pp.66-73
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    • 2014
  • In order to determine whether vegetation would be one of the factors for the selection of otter home range, vegetation structure and other potential factors were studied in Hwacheon, Korea. Thirteen sites, otter's activity found and not found, were investigated in North Han River and connected tributary streams of Hwacheon-gun. Three types of vegetation were classified by cluster analysis, which is short grass, tall grass and shrub type. Vegetation zone of each channel is composed of either one type, or mosaic of tall grass and shrub type. Short grass type is common in Lake Paro and upper North Han-river where water level is highly variable throughout a year. Therefore, annual species such as Persicaria nodosa, Fimbristylis dichotomam and Chenopodium ficifolium are the most dominant. Shrub type is common at the downstream sites of Jichon stream and along mainstream of North Han River down Lake Paro. A shrub species, Salix koreensis, is the most common. Tall grass type is dominant occupying the most vegetation zone of the tributary channels. Phragmites japonica is absolutely dominant. Due to its dense cover, a few plant species are co-existed. Otter activity was found in all three vegetation types and no marked activity was found at some sites of tall grass type. There is no difference in species composition and physiognomy between tall grass sites with and without otter activity, while it shows significant difference in fish availability between two groups. Overall we found that home range of otters in the region is along the mainstream and downstream of tributary streams with high fish availability in all vegetation types and in various human activity levels.

A Study on the Entry Strategies of Small and Medium Sized Landscape Contractors to Vietnam by Risk Analysis in Overseas Projects (해외사업 리스크 분석을 통한 중소 조경건설업체의 베트남 진출전략에 관한 연구)

  • Tae, Jongwook;Jeong, Daeyoung;Hwang, Joon;Chon, Jinhyung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2018
  • The decline in the construction industry has led to a decrease the profitability of small and medium-sized landscape contractors. To relieve this situation, small and medium-sized landscape contractors have continued to proactively find ways to enter global construction markets. However, many small and medium-sized landscape contractors face risks due to their lack of capacity and insufficient preparations to extend the business abroad. Thus, this study aims to analyze the current condition of the Vietnamese construction market and the related risk factors. It then suggests strategies to improve the small and medium-sized landscape contractors' competitiveness in that market. We investigated the business climate and analyzed risk factors. Finally, we developed expansion strategies and conducted in-depth interviews with six overseas construction professionals. The study results first showed that efforts to improve infrastructure and the increased demand for housing in Vietnam will lead to more opportunities for small and medium-sized landscape contractors entering the Vietnamese construction market. However, changes in the Vietnamese business climate may act as a variable. Second, we found that small and medium-sized landscape contractors' risk factors are mainly related to laws and regulations, government finance, market fluctuations, public administration system, minimum wage increases, financing and bonds, contracting, trees and materials, and design errors. Finally, small and medium-sized landscape contractors are required to consider the following when seeking to enter the Vietnamese construction market: short-term strategy and mid-to-long-term strategy. This study will be used as the basis for small and medium-sized landscape contractors to plan to enter the Vietnamese construction market and to contribute to the expansion of the global construction market in the landscape industry.