• Economic Analysis
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.43-71
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• 2020

This paper aims to derive macroeconomic implications by analyzing the business cycle characteristics of the youth unemployment. The results of empirical analysis seem to show that youth unemployment appears to be relatively less correlated with business cycle compared to other age groups, and thus it is difficult to explain the recent steady increase in the potential labor force as a result of the business cycle fluctuation alone. Moreover, the alternative unemployment measures of the youth group showing upward trend were estimated to be co-integrated with output measures. This co-integrated trend increase suggests that unlike other age groups, youth may be influenced by structural factors inherent in Korea's economic growth path. The fact that the wage difference based on firm size has widened steadily since the Asian financial crisis and that the proportion of large companies that provide relatively high-quality jobs compared to major industrialized countries is significantly lower may be the evidence of the structural changes in Korean youth labor market. The results of above analysis may explain why the job search periods for youth has lengthened amid these structural changes.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.49-68
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• 2017

This paper investigates the spillover effect of the U.S. Interest on Korea's interest rate as well as the role of exchange rate in the spillover effects, by utilizing a open macro model on the determinants of long-term interest rates. According to the cointegration estimation and the Impulse response function, it is found that, across both long-term and short-term, there exist the spillover effect of the U.S. Interest on Korea's interest rate. The fiscal deficit and expected exchange rate have significantly positive relationship with the Koreas's long-term interest rate. Further, foreign exchange market intervention in Korea did not have significant effect on the spillover effect. Thus, this study suggests that exchange rate flexibility would not be enough to restrain the spillover effects of the U.S. interest rate.

• 한국노년학
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.1225-1237
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• 2010

This study aims to analyze the factors affecting consumption inequality in the 10 years following the financial crisis, applying the cohort method on the data for the first to the eleventh wave of the Korean Labor and Income Study produced by the Korean Labor Institute. The study found that consumption inequality increased rapidly immediately following the financial crisis, and then decreased gradually until increasing again from 2005 onward. Analyzed in terms of age-time-cohort effects, there was a significant change in consumption inequality around the age of mid-forties, and the decrease in consumption inequality was smaller in the younger generations than in the older ones. This suggests that as the current younger generations age over time, consumption inequality may become greater. Also, when the factors in population-cohort-age effects from 1998 onward are analyzed, the age effect in consumption inequality becomes smaller, whereas the role of the rising average age due to demographic shifts seems to be increasing. This means that consumption inequality may become a serious problem in the rapidly aging society. Therefore, there is a need to consider ways to bolster social security and to provide further public assistance in the low-income retiree.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.365-388
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• 2011

By analyzing 1998~2008 Korean Labor and Income Panel Study(KLIPS), this study examines socio-economic characteristics of people who become poor. The study also explores the reason why they are in the state of poverty. To find determinants affecting poverty entrance, discrete-time hazard models are applied. Major findings are as follows. The socio-economic characteristics driving people into poverty are in the middle way of the long-term poor and the non-poor, combining the characteristics of both groups. This implies that many cases of the newly poor tend to enter and exit from poverty repeatedly. Poverty entry rate was at a high level right after the economic crises, then was a downturn and remained fairly stable since 2000. However, the young, the high-educated, and even the professional are on the rise as a new poverty group. The major reason people become poor is temporary job loss. This factor is confirmed again by multi-variate analyses. In building anti-poverty policies, it is important to distinguish the long-term poor from the short-term poor. For the long-term poor, virtually the only affective policy will be income support. On the other hand, a labor-market strategy for jos security will be more effective for the short-term poor. The characteristics and determinants of poverty entry may affect poverty duration and exit in the future. Future research will be needed to investigate the relationship among these factors.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.87-114
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• 2009

Most previous studies on income inequality have limitations in reflecting recent changes and heterogeneity in women's working patterns and their family structure by regarding them as a homogeneous group. This study aims to investigate the trends of income inequality among women during the past 9 years since 1997 and to examine what is the most influential factor on these changes. The results show that the overall trend of income inequality among women is decreasing due to the income decrease of the middle class women and the income increase of the lower class. Among various factors, education, age, and marital status are key factors affecting inequality changes during this period. This study has the following policy implications: first, it is necessary to implement the child care services for the divorced and separated women, who are more likely to fall in poverty. Second, the increase of the basic pension benefits is needed particularly for the poor old women, who is more likely live longer in a desperate status.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.233-255
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• 2007

본 사례는 외환위기 및 대우 그룹 해체로 인해 존폐의 위기에 처했던 대우증권이 선도업체 위상을 탈환하기까지의 재건 과정에서 실행했던 마케팅 전략 및 영업활동을 분석하고 있다. 이를 통해 경영위기를 효과적으로 극복하고 새롭게 도약하기 위해 활용 가능한 마케팅 및 영업 전략의 일례를 소개하고자 한다. 끝으로 대우증권의 향후 마케팅 과제와 관련된 토의 주제가 제시된다. 국내 증권업계 선두주자였던 대우증권은 1999년 '대우 사태'로 인해 한때 업계 5위까지 추락하고 1조 2,000억원의 적자를 기록하였으며 신용등급은 투자부적격 단계인 CCC+까지 하락하는 등 위기를 맞이하게 되었다. 대우증권이 회생과 재도약을 위해 채택한 마케팅 전략은 '선택과 집중'이었다. 즉, 최대 수익원이자 경쟁력이 있는 사업 분야인 위탁매매(brokerage)에 역량을 우선 집중하여 안정적으로 수익 기반을 다진 뒤 이를 바탕으로 IB(Investment Bank)와 자산 관리(Wealth Management) 등 여타 분야에서의 역량도 점진적으로 강화하는 전략이다. 전략의 실행 방향은 높은 효율성 확보 및 자원의 확충을 통해 시장 지배력과 수익성을 창출하는 것이었다. 전략적 공감대, 오프라인 영업 강화, 현장 및 고객 중시를 위한 기업 자원의 확충 배치를 바탕으로 영업 프로세스, 영업 인프라, 영업 관리, 고객 서비스, 영업 문화의 혁신을 실행한 결과, 대우증권은 증권명가의 옛 명성과 위치를 성공적으로 탈환하게 되었다. 대우증권은 2004년 위탁매매 영업 부문에서 1위 위상을 되찾은 이래 전 사업 분야에서 성장을 지속하였다. 2006년 증권업종 시가총액 1위를 회복하는 등 각종 경영지표는 큰 폭으로 개선되었고, 신용등급은 AA-로 상향 조정되었다. 나아가 자본시장통합법 시대에 걸맞는 선도 글로벌 투자은행으로서 진화한다는 계획을 추진하고 있다.

• Sim-seong Yeon-gu
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.163-193
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• 2010

A Korean fairy tale, "I live on my fortune" is discussed and interpreted from the perspective of analytical psychology. Analytical psychology understands fairy tales are stories in which the workings of archetypes of unconsciousness are represented symbolically. Therefore they are intended to achieve psychic wholeness compensating collective consciousness. The fairy tale is found in almost every region of Korea. There are several parallel stories that share similar motifs, such as Samgongbonpoori, a mythological story and a tale on the king Mooh. The father in the story asked his three daughters whose fortune they lived on. The youngest was expelled by her father for she answered, "I live on my own fortune." Then she came into a humble cottage in the mountain marrying a poor charcoal maker and she found gold there. She became rich, made the charcoal maker a decent learned man and seeked for and took care of her parents who had become beggars. This fairy tale is interpreted as a story about individuation process of a woman who integrated 'inferior' aspects and unconscious animus through actively accepting the suffering from being expelled and commitment to the unconscious world, and also about how rigid collective psyche, under patriarchal system, changes toward wholeness through the workings of the unconscious.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.179-197
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• 1991

선도환의 가격을 결정하는 접근방법에는 2차자산(derivative assets)이라는 선도계약의 기본특성에 기초한 재정거래(arbitrage)에 의한 방법이 가장 많이 이용되고 있다. 재정거래방식에는 선도환과 현물외환가격간의 상호관련성에 의하여 선도환가격을 이자율평가설(covered interest rate parity : CIRP), 즉 현물가격과 양국간의 이자율차이의 합으로 표시하고 있다. 특히 현물가격과 이자율은 모두 현재시점에서 의사결정자에게 알려져 있기때문에 선도환가격은 확실성하에서 결정되어 미래에 대한 예측이나 투자자의 위험회피도와는 관계없이 결정된다는 것이 특징이다. 이자율평가설에 관한 많은 실증연구는 거래 비용을 고려한 경우 현실적으로 적절하다고 보고 있다(Frenkel and Levich ; 1975, 1977). 다른 방법으로는 선도환의 미래예측기능에만 촛점을 맞추어 가격결정을 하는 투기, 예측접근방법(speculative efficiency approach : 이하에서는 SEA라 함)이 있다. 이 방법 중에서 가장 단순한 형태로 표시된 가설, 즉 '선도환가격은 미래기대현물가격과 같다'는 가설은 대부분의 실증분석에서 기각되고 있다. 이에 따라 SEA에서는 선도환가격이 미래에 대한 기대치뿐만 아니라 위험프리미엄까지 함께 포함하고 있다는 새로운 가설을 설정하고 이에 대한 실증분석을 진행한다. 이 가설은 이론적 모형에서 출발한 것이 아니기 때문에, 특히 기대치와 위험프레미엄 모두가 측정 불가능하다는 점으로 인하여 실증분석상 많은 어려움을 겪게 된다. 이러한 어려움을 피하기 위하여 많은 연구에서는 이자율평가설을 이용하여 선도환가격에 포함된 위험프레미엄에 대해 추론 내지 그 행태를 설명하려고 한다. 이자율평가설을 이용하여 분석모형을 설정하고 실증분석을 하는 것은 몇가지 근본적인 문제점을 내포하고 있다. 먼저, 앞서 지적한 바와 같이 이자율평가설을 가정한다는 것은 SEA에서 주된 관심이 되는 미래예측이나 위험프레미엄과는 관계없이 선도가격이 결정 된다는 것을 의미한다. 따라서 이자율평가설을 가정하여 설정된 분석모형은 선도환시장의 효율성이나 균형가격결정에 대한 시사점을 제공할 수 없다는 것을 의미한다. 즉, 가정한 시장효율성을 실증분석을 통하여 다시 검증하려는 것과 같다. 이러한 개념적 차원에서의 문제점 이외에도 실증분석에서의 추정상의 문제점 또한 존재한다. 대부분의 연구들이 현물자산의 균형가격결정모형에 이자율평가설을 추가로 결합하기 때문에 이러한 방법으로 설정한 분석모형은 그 기초가 되는 현물가격모형과는 달리 자의적 조작이 가능한 형태로 나타나며 이를 이용한 모수의 추정은 불필요한 편기(bias)를 가지게 된다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 실증분석상의 편기에 관한 문제점이 명확하고 구체적으로 나타나는 Mark(1985)의 실증연구를 재분석하고 실증자료를 통하여 위험회피도의 추정치에 편기가 발생하는 근본원인이 이자율평가설을 부적절하게 사용하는데 있다는 것을 확인 하고자 한다. 실증분석결과는 본문의 <표 1>에 제시되어 있으며 그 내용을 간략하게 요약하면 다음과 같다. (A) 실증분석모형 : 본 연구에서는 다기간 자산가격결정모형중에서 대표적인 Lucas (1978)모형을 직접 사용한다. $$1={\beta}\;E_t[\frac{U'(C_{t+1})\;P_t\;s_{t+1}}{U'(C_t)\;P_{t+1}\;s_t}]$$ (2) $U'(c_t)$와 $P_t$는 t시점에서의 소비에 대한 한계효용과 소비재의 가격을, $s_t$와 $f_t$는 외환의 현물과 선도가격을, $E_t$와 ${\beta}$는 조건부 기대치와 시간할인계수를 나타낸다. Mark는 위의 식 (2)를 이자율평가설과 결합한 다음의 모형 (4)를 사용한다. $$0=E_t[\frac{U'(C_{t+1})\;P_t\;(s_{t+1}-f_t)}{U'(C_t)\;P_{t+1}\;s_t}]$$ (4) (B) 실증분석의 결과 위험회피계수 ${\gamma}$의 추정치 : Mark의 경우에는 ${\gamma}$의 추정치의 값이 0에서 50.38까지 매우 큰 폭의 변화를 보이고 있다. 특히 비내구성제품의 소비량과 선도프레미엄을 사용한 경우 ${\gamma}$의 추정치의 값은 17.51로 비정상적으로 높게 나타난다. 반면에 본 연구에서는 추정치가 1.3으로 주식시장자료를 사용한 다른 연구결과와 비슷한 수준이다. ${\gamma}$추정치의 정확도 : Mark에서는 추정치의 표준오차가 최소 15.65에서 최대 42.43으로 매우 높은 반면 본 연구에서는 0.3에서 0.5수준으로 상대적으로 매우 정확한 추정 결과를 보여주고 있다. 모형의 정확도 : 모형 (4)에 대한 적합도 검증은 시용된 도구변수(instrumental variables)의 종류에 따라 크게 차이가 난다. 시차변수(lagged variables)를 사용하지 않고 현재소비와 선도프레미엄만을 사용할 경우 모형 (4)는 2.8% 또는 2.3% 유의수준에서 기각되는 반면 모형 (2)는 5% 유의수준에서 기각되지 않는다. 위와같은 실증분석의 결과는 앞서 논의한 바와 같이 이자율평가설을 사용하여 균형자산가격 결정모형을 변형시킴으로써 불필요한 편기를 발생시킨다는 것을 명확하게 보여주는 것이다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.1-31
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• 2008

Various opinions have been suggested to explain the slump in equipment investment, such as increased government regulations, shareholder-oriented management by expanded foreign equity investment, response against M&A threats, conservative investment trends seen after a series of bankruptcy of large conglomerates (amidst crumbling myth of "Too Big to Fail"), and financial restructuring. Some also argued that the increased uncertainty in business environment is mainly responsible for conservative management, though there are few domestic studies made regarding the situation. But, in other countries, including the U.S., studies have shown that more volatility is seen now surrounding stock prices, profitability, and sales growth rate reflecting business performance. Also, there are other studies showing such expanded volatility have led to conservative management by businesses. In this regard, this study reviews the volatility conditions of business performance of Korean companies based on profitability, and then attempts to analyze the impact on investment brought on by increased volatility. Each company's profitability volatility used here is from the standard deviation of companies for the past five years. As a profitability indicator, the ROA (= operating profit/total asset) is used. According to the analysis, profitability volatility has remarkably increased from the mid 3% in 1994 to low 5% in 2005. Profitability volatility of the Korean companies has expanded to a great extent since the financial crisis. The crisis might have served to raise the volatility in the macroeconomic conditions. If increased volatility observed during the economic crisis had gradually declined after the crisis, the situation could be interpreted as a temporary phenomenon, not to be too concerned over. But, this was not the case for Korea. The volatility level, after the crisis, has not dropped back to its pre-crisis level. Hence, in the Korea's case, high volatility cannot be explained by the impact of financial crisis. Not only that, the fact that such expansion is seen in every industrial sector indicates that this phenomenon cannot be explained by the composition change of industries alone. An undergoing study shows that with a rapid spread of globalization, industries fiercely competing with China experience more volatility. Such increased volatility tends to contract investment, and since the crisis the impact of volatility on investment has slightly increased. It is noteworthy that this study only includes a part of 'uncertainty' that could be measured statistically. For instance, the profitability volatility indicator used in this study is unable to reflect all the effects that the tacit reduction of protection by the government or regulations might have made. So, the result here also indicates that other 'uncertain' factors not mentioned in this study may have served to contract investment sentiment. It would be impossible for policies to completely remove uncertainties measured by profitability volatility, but at least it is necessary to put effort to reduce the macroeconomic volatility in the future economic management. Stabilized macroeconomic management may not be enough to diminish all volatility that occurs within each company, but it would make a meaningful contribution in encouraging investment.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.11 no.6
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• pp.1-9
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• 2016

In this study, we investigate the announcement effects of M&As with a start-up as a target firm on shareholder wealth of an acquiring firm. We use M&A events in KOSPI or KOSDAQ market between 2002 and 2014 after the financial crisis. Among the total 1436 mergers and acquisitions that took place domestically during this period, 1383 cases were selected as cases to be studied, excluding 53 cases where acquiring firms were unlisted firms. The results of the analysis are as follows: First, as a result of a comparison between the acquiring firms' CARs of the whole sample group(n=1383) occurred during the (-2, +1), (-5, +2), (-10, +5) periods of M&A announcement date(t=0) and the sub-sample group(n=468) where the target firms are start-ups which were established within five years, the acquiring firms of the whole sample group do not show significat CARs, while the acquiring firms of the sub-sample group show the significantly positive CARs. This suggests that M&A with start-ups have a positive effect on firm value of acquiring firms. Second, when merging unlisted start-ups, the acquiring firms show positive CARs, showing that there exists a listing effect in the merger of start-up. Third, merging the start-ups belonging to the high-tech industry shows the higher CARs than the case of merging the start-ups belonging to the non-high-tech industry. This study has great significance as the first in Korea to investigate the effect of M&A announcement with a start-up.