• Title/Summary/Keyword: 외생변수

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Financial Market Prediction and Improving the Performance Based on Large-scale Exogenous Variables and Deep Neural Networks (대규모 외생 변수 및 Deep Neural Network 기반 금융 시장 예측 및 성능 향상)

  • Cheon, Sung Gil;Lee, Ju Hong;Choi, Bum Ghi;Song, Jae Won
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.26-35
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    • 2020
  • Attempts to predict future stock prices have been studied steadily since the past. However, unlike general time-series data, financial time-series data has various obstacles to making predictions such as non-stationarity, long-term dependence, and non-linearity. In addition, variables of a wide range of data have limitations in the selection by humans, and the model should be able to automatically extract variables well. In this paper, we propose a 'sliding time step normalization' method that can normalize non-stationary data and LSTM autoencoder to compress variables from all variables. and 'moving transfer learning', which divides periods and performs transfer learning. In addition, the experiment shows that the performance is superior when using as many variables as possible through the neural network rather than using only 100 major financial variables and by using 'sliding time step normalization' to normalize the non-stationarity of data in all sections, it is shown to be effective in improving performance. 'moving transfer learning' shows that it is effective in improving the performance in long test intervals by evaluating the performance of the model and performing transfer learning in the test interval for each step.

Differential Effects of Humor Advertising by Expression Type and Receivers' Temperament (유머광고 표현유형과 수신자의 기질에 따른 유머광고의 차별적 효과)

  • Ha, Tae-Gil;Park, Myung-Ho;Yi, Huiuk
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.23-41
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    • 2007
  • The current study analyzed the relationship between expression type of humor ads and their advertising effects and the differences in advertising effects by expression type according to temperament as categorized by the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI). Expression type of humor was classified into arousal-, incongruity-, and superiority-type humor ads. Advertising effects were measured by consumers' cognitive, affective, and conative responses. Three ads were created based on expression type of humor. A personality type, as measured by the MBTI, was categorized into four types of temperament, namely SP, SJ, NF, NT and used as moderating variables. As a result, the advertising effects varied according to the expression type of humor advertising. Interaction effects between ad expression type and temperament on ad feeling and ad preference were also found.

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Development of Tree Stem Weight Equations for Larix kaempferi in Central Region of South Korea (중부지역 일본잎갈나무의 수간중량 추정식 개발)

  • Ko, Chi-Ung;Son, Yeong-Mo;Kang, Jin-Taek;Kim, Dong-Geun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.107 no.2
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    • pp.184-192
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    • 2018
  • In this study was implemented to develop tree stem weight prediction equation of Larix kaempferi in central region by selecting a standard site, taking into account of diameter and position of the local trees. Fifty five sample trees were selected in total. By utilizing actual data of the sample trees, 11 models were compared and analyzed in order to estimate four different kinds of weights which include fresh weight, ovendry outside bark weight, ovendry inside bark weight and merchantable weight. As to estimate its weight, the study has classified its model according to three parameters: DBH, DBH and height, and volume. The optimal model was chosen by comparing the performance of model using the fit index and standard error of estimate and residual distribution. As a result, the formula utilizing DBH (Variable 1) is $W=a+bD+cD^2$ (3) and its fit index was 90~92%. The formula for DBH and height (Variable 2) is $W=aD^bH^C$ (8) and its fit index was 97~98%. In summation, Variable 2 model showed higher fitness than Variable 1 model. Moreover, fit index of formula for total volume and merchantable volume (W=aV) showed high rate of 98~99%, as well as resulting 7.7-17.5 with SEE and 8.0-10.0 with CV(%) which lead to predominately high fitness in conclusion. This study is expected to provide information on weights for single trees and furthermore, to be used as a basic study for weight of stand unit and biomass estimation equations.

세계경제여건변화(世界經濟與件變化)에 따른 경제구조변화전망(經濟構造變化展望)과 구조조정정책방향(構造調整政策方向)

  • Jwa, Seung-Hui
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.3-19
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    • 1994
  • 본고의 본적은 앞으로 예상되는 세계경제(世界經濟)의 국경 없는 단일경제(單一經濟)로의 통합화 진전과 정보통신기술의 혁신에 따라, 우리 경제가 추구해야 할 경제구조조정정책방향(經濟構造調整政策方向)을 모색하는데 있다. 본고는 우선 경제조직(經濟組織)이란 내생변수(內生變數)로서 경제환경(經濟環境)의 변화에 따라 최적구조를 찾아간다는 시각에서, 외생적(外生的) 여건변화(與件變化)에 따른 경제조직의 변화(變化)를 체계적으로 설명할 수 있는 '내생적 경제조직론'을 개발하고, 세계경제여건변화에 따른 경제구조의 변화를 전망하고 있다. 이 이론(理論)에 의하면, 세계시장의 통합에 따른 시장규모의 확대는 일반적으로 경제활동의 전문화(專門化) 대형화(大型化)를 촉진시키게 되는 반면, 정보통신기술(情報通信技術)의 발달에 따른 경제활동간의 연계의 강화는 경제활동의 겸업(兼業) 및 다각화(多角化)를 촉진시키는 것으로 시사되고 있다. 이러한 결과의 응용을 통해, 본고는 우선 통합화에 따라 세계각국의 경제구조는 시장규모가 동일해짐으로써 유사한 형태로 귀일해 갈 것이며, 이에 따라 세계경제의 추세에서 크게 벗어나는 독특한 경제구조의 추구는 경제적(經濟的) 비효율(非效率)을 초래할 우려가 높다고 본다. 그리고 경제여건변화(經濟與件變化)에 따라 기업들은 전문화(專門化)와 다각화(多角化)를 활발히 추구함으로써 경제구조(經濟構造)의 변화(變化)를 주도해 나갈 것으로 전망되지만, 정부는 정보의 부족으로 이러한 과정을 구체적으로 예측할 수가 없기 때문에, 금후의 구조조정방안(構造調整方案)을 모색함에 있어서, 정부는 구체적 대응방안을 발견하려 하거보다는 기업들의 자생적 구조조정노력을 뒷받침해 줄 수 있도록 경제자율화를 통해 최적의 대응여건을 마련해 주는 것이 바람직하다고 본다.

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A Study on Control Effectiveness of Enterprise Risk Management Level Relation with Technology Innovation & New Product Development Outcome (기술혁신수준과 신제품개발성과 관계에서 전사적 위험관리 수준 조절효과 연구 - 연구개발, 생산, 마케팅의 전략적 운영부문 위험관리수준의 조절효과 중심 -)

  • Lee, Kwang-Soo;Ree, Sang-Bok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Quality Management Conference
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    • 2009.10a
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    • pp.277-278
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    • 2009
  • 기술은 기업에 있어서 없어서는 안되는 소중한 무형자산이다. 현대의 기업은 재무적 경쟁요소에서는 비교적 유사한 행태를 보이고 있으며 기업간 차별성이 거의 없다. 하지만 무형적 가치인 기술은 그 기업의 존재의 의미를 부여하는 매우 중요한 요소이다. 많은 기업들이 기술개발에 많은 시간과 비용을 들이고 있으나 그 성공확율은 10%가 채 안되는 실정이므로 신제품개발 실패시 기업에게 적지 않은 타격을 입히게 된다. 특히 중소기업의 경우 개발한 것은 무조건 성공을 시켜야 하는 어려움에 처해 있다. 이런 위험이외에 외생적 경영환경변수로 인하여 더욱 더 기업들은 위기와 위험에 노출되어 있으므로 기업들은 전사적위험관리(ERM)시스템 도입을 통해 기업의 재무건전성, 최적의 투자전략, 현금흐름, 위기로 부터의 관리가 필요하다 하겠다. 본 연구에서는 기술혁신기업에 있어서 전사적위험관리 도입의 필요성을 제시하고자 한다.

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An Analysis of the Relationship between Market Rates and the Profits of Tramp Shipping (부정기선 해운업의 이윤과 금리의 관계 분석)

  • Choi, Young-Jae;Kim, Hyun-Sok;Chang, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.55-67
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    • 2015
  • This study analyzes the relationship between shipping profit and market return in the tramp trade from January 2000 to October 2014. First, we carry out the causality test and find a causal relationship between the studied variables. Second, the estimates from the Johansen cointegration test show that shipping profit is cointegrated with market return, which implies that a long-run relationship exists among the variables. The empirical results thus imply that shipping firms need diverse risk management strategies.

The Dynamic Analysis between Environmental Quality, Energy Consumption, and Income (소득 및 에너지소비와 환경오염의 관계에 대한 분석)

  • Jung, Sukwan;Kang, Sangmok
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.97-122
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    • 2013
  • The ARDL(Autoregressive Distributed Lag) method is employed analyzes the long-run equilibrium relationships among environmental pollution($CO_2$ emissions) per capita, income levels per capita, and energy consumption per capita. The error correction model is employed to analyze the short-term effects of income and energy consumption on $CO_2$ emissions. The Toda-Yammamoto method is employed for causal analysis among the three variables. The results show that income levels, energy consumption, and $CO_2$ emissions are cointegrated. We found the N type relationship between income and $CO_2$ emissions. Long-term elasticities of income and energy consumption with respect to $CO_2$ emission were greater than their short-term elasticities. There were a bilateral causality between energy consumption and $CO_2$ emissions. There was a unilateral causality from $CO_2$ emissions to income and from energy consumption to income not vice versa. Energy consumption can be an important variable to contribute to forecasting $CO_2$ emissions.

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Driving Satisfaction and Safety Assessment for Roundabout (회전교차로 주행 만족도 및 안전성 평가)

  • Namgung, Moon;Shin, Hoe Sik;Jang, Tae Youn
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.223-233
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    • 2014
  • This study empirically analyzes the relationships among the road and traffic experts' personal characteristics, the driving behavior and factors being expected to have an effect on the satisfaction about roundabout operation. The factors are drawn and grouped through the principle component analysis to clarify driving environment satisfaction on roundabout operation. Each group is named as personal attribute, driving behavior attribute, and satisfaction. After the variables are refined by confirmatory factor analysis, satisfaction model is developed with personal attribute and driving behavior attributes as exogenous variables and roundabout driving awareness and emotion attributes as endogenous variables. As a result, driving satisfaction of roundabout operation is directly influenced by delay reduction, safety improvement, capacity increase, sight improvement, severity accident reduction, and bicycle convenience and indirectly gender, age, driving time, and driving experience. Law obeyance, driving concession, traffic sign obeyance, and interposition do not statistically shows significant on satisfaction. As a result of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), the turning radius of geometry and the driving behavior are important elements for roundabout safety.

The Study on the Influence of Selection Characteristics of Franchise System, business possibility, Communication, Moral Hazard on Franchisee's Perceived Risk, and Recontracting Intention in the Food Service Franchise Industry (외식 프랜차이저의 사업성, 커뮤니케이션, 모럴해저드가 프랜차이지의 위험지각과 재계약의도에 미치는 영향)

  • Yu, Jong-Pil;Lee, In-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 2011
  • I. Introduction: This study is to examine the structural relationships among exogenous variable (preliminary and post-support, franchisee's perceived business possibility, communication, moral hazard), the mediated variables(satisfaction, perceived risk, trust) and dependent variable(recontracting intention) in the food service franchise industry context. More specifically, this study has considered some realistic characteristics factors influencing satisfaction, perceived risk and trust between franchisors and franchisees and their further recontracting intention from the perspective of a practical approach. In this study, 437 data has been collected and used for the SPSS and AMOS analysis. The data were analyzed with structural equation modeling. Since the result of the overall model analysis demonstrated a good fit, we could further analyze our data. II. Research Model: This study is to examine the structural relationships among preliminary and post-support by franchisor, franchisee's perceived business possibility, and communication, moral hazard, has on effect on franchisee's satisfaction, perceived risk, trust and recontracting intention in the food service franchise industry context. Hypotheses are as following (Stern & EL-Ansary 1988; Oliver, 1997;Kee & Knox, 1970; Moorman, Deshpande & Zaltman, 1993; Perron, 1998; Zaheer, McEvily, Perrone, 1998). III. Result and Implication: We examined franchisee who have food service stores for samples of this study. The data were analyzed with structural equation modeling using path analysis. The result of the overall model analysis appeared as following: ${\chi}^2$ = 61.578 (d.f.=9, p<0.01), CFI =.990, GFI =.973, AGFI =.863, RMR =.019, RMSEA= .116, NFI = .988, TLI = .959. The findings can be summarized as follows: First, preliminary and post support of franchisor, perceived business possibility and communication positively influence to franchisee's satisfaction. Second, moral hazard of franchisor has negatively influence to franchisee's satisfaction and positively influence to perceived risk. Third, franchisee's satisfaction and trust has positively influence to recontracting intention. Fourth, franchisee's perceived risk has negatively influence to trust and recontracting intention. We can concluded that franchisor's preliminary and post support of franchisor, perceived business possibility and communication may be considered as the important factors influence to franchisee's satisfaction. Moral hazard has become a focused issue in franchise industry. Finally, the managerial implication has been stated as followings: First, in the process of building a systematic industry support franchise system and developing a creative business model, franchisee's stable profitability should be considered as the first important factor. The franchisee's trust to franchise may become a dominant factor that influence the business expansion of franchisor. Second, franchisor should communication with their franchisees and deal with the realistic difficulties faced by them with an effort. Third, the franchisor should achieve a synergy effect by utilizing the win-win strategy. The moral hazard strategy that achieving the profit through franchisee's damage will not be inadvisable to franchisor. Then the long-term oriented development and profitability can be maintained. To do so, the franchise industry may break away from the traditional business structure to improve management transparency and competitiveness on investment and organizational changing management. The conflict between franchisor and franchisee also can be reduced and big success can be achieved in the franchise industry.

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The Effects of Human Resource Management on Organizational Effectiveness (중소기업의 고몰입 인적자원관리가 조직효과성에 미치는 영향)

  • Chang, Yong-Sun;Kim, Min-Soo;Lee, Kang Min;Cho, Dae Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.103-114
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to find out the relationship between high involvement Human Resource Management and organizational effectiveness in small company. High involvement Human Resource Management practices include training, incentive, performance appraisal, participation, proposal, communication, job description. This research approached organizational effectiveness using internal process and goal. Internal process approach measured internal organizational health using aggregate organizational commitment, turnover intention, job search. Goal approach measured organizational growth using sales growth rate per employee and net income growth rate per employee. Using the collected data from 267 employees at 27 small-sized firms located in South region in Korea, this research tested and confirmed the construct validity regression analysis at the organizational level. This research came to the conclusions to as follows: First, high-involvement HRM had the positive effect on the organizational commitment. Second, high-involvement HRM had the negative effect on the turnover intention. The findings suggest that high-involvement HRM is a valuable construct to understand internal process approach of organizational effectiveness in small firms.