• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.18 no.8
• /
• pp.525-535
• /
• 2018

If the frequency of a particular class is excessively higher than the frequency of other classes in the classification problem, data imbalance problems occur, which make machine learning distorted. Corporate bankruptcy prediction often suffers from data imbalance problems since the ratio of insolvent companies is generally very low, whereas the ratio of solvent companies is very high. To mitigate these problems, it is required to apply a proper sampling technique. Until now, oversampling techniques which adjust the class distribution of a data set by sampling minor class with replacement have popularly been used. However, they are a risk of overfitting. Under this background, this study proposes ROSE(Random Over Sampling Examples) technique which is proposed by Menardi and Torelli in 2014 for the effective corporate bankruptcy prediction. The ROSE technique creates new learning samples by synthesizing the samples for learning, so it leads to better prediction accuracy of the classifiers while avoiding the risk of overfitting. Specifically, our study proposes to combine the ROSE method with SVM(support vector machine), which is known as the best binary classifier. We applied the proposed method to a real-world bankruptcy prediction case of a Korean major bank, and compared its performance with other sampling techniques. Experimental results showed that ROSE contributed to the improvement of the prediction accuracy of SVM in bankruptcy prediction compared to other techniques, with statistical significance. These results shed a light on the fact that ROSE can be a good alternative for resolving data imbalance problems of the prediction problems in social science area other than bankruptcy prediction.

• 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2006.06a
• /
• pp.117-122
• /
• 2006

In the geophysical monitoring to understand the change of subsurface material properties with time, the time-invariant static subsurface model is commonly adopted to reconstruct a time-lapse image. This assumption of static model, however, can be invalid particularly when fluid migrates very quickly in highly permeable medium in the brine injection experiment. In such case, the resultant subsurface images may be severely distorted. In order to alleviate this problem, we develop a new least-squares inversion algorithm under the assumption that the subsurface model will change continuously in time. Instead of sampling a time-space model into numerous space models with a regular time interval, a few reference models in space domain at different times pre-selected are used to describe the subsurface structure continuously changing in time; the material property at a certain space coordinate are assumed to change linearly in time. Consequently, finding a space-time model can be simplified into obtaining several reference space models. In order to stabilize iterative inversion and to calculate meaningful subsurface images varying with time, the regularization along time axis is introduced assuming that the subsurface model will not change significantly during the data acquisition. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated by the numerical experiments using the synthetic data of crosshole dc resistivity tomography.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.40 no.12
• /
• pp.943-956
• /
• 2007

Among various statistics, the spatial correlation function, that is "correlogram", is frequently used to evaluate or design the rain gauge network and to model the rainfall field. The spatial correlation structure of rainfall has the significant variation due to many factors. Thus, the variation of spatial correlation structure of rainfall causes serious problems when deciding the spatial correlation function of rainfall within the basin. In this study, the spatial rainfall structure was modeled using bivariate mixed distributions to derive monthly spatial correlograms, based on Gaussian and lognormal distributions. This study derived the correlograms using hourly data of 28 rain gauge stations in the Keum river basin. From the results, we concluded as following; (1) Among three cases (Case A, Case B, Case C) considered, the Case A(+,+) seems to be the most relevant as it is not distorted much by zero measurements. (2) The spatial correlograms based on the lognormal distribution, which is theoretically as well as practically adequate, is better than that based on the Gaussian distribution. (3) The spatial correlation in July exponentially decrease more obviously than those in other months. (4) The spatial correlograms should be derived considering the temporal resolution(hourly, daily, etc) of interest.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2007.05a
• /
• pp.836-840
• /
• 2007

Large-Scale Particle Image Velocimetry (LSPIV)는 Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV)를 자연하천이나 실험실에서 넓은 영역($4m^2{\sim}45,000m^2$)에 적용할 수 있도록 확장시킨 것으로 지난 10여년 이상 세계적으로 널리 이에 대한 연구가 진행되고 있다. PIV는 seeding, illumination, recording 그리고 image processing으로 구성된다. LSPIV(Large Scale PIV)는 PIV의 기본원리를 근거로 하여 기존의 PIV에 비하여 실험실 내에서의 수리모형실험이나 일반 하천에서의 유속측정과 같은 큰 규모의 흐름해석을 할 수 있도록 seeding, illumination에 대한 조정이 필요하고, 촬영된 image에 대한 왜곡을 없애는 작업이 필요하다. LSPIV는 PIV의 네가지 단계를 포함하여 seeding, illumination, recording, image transformation, image processing 및 post-processing의 여섯 단계로 구성되어진다 (Li, 2002). LSPIV를 일반 하천에 적용시, 자연발생적인 tracers - 난류로 인한 표면 교란, 부유물, 수공구조물로 인해서 발생하는 자연 발생되는 거품 - 가 풍부해서 seeding이 불필요한 경우를 제외하고는 정확한 유속장의 해석을 위하여 인공적인 seeding을 필요로 한다. 일반적으로 Seeding 재료로 많이 이용되는 것은 wood mulch, Ecofoam, grain-straw 등이다. 하천에서 자연발생적 혹은 인위적 seeding을 하였을 때 이들 tracers의 물리적인 속성으로 바람에 쉽게 영향을 받고 이로 인하여 실제의 물표면유속을 대표하지 못하는 경우가 있다. 이에 실험실의 개수로에서 여러 가지 이용 가능한 tracers에 대하여 바람에 의한 오차 발생의 정도를 조사하였다. 실험에 사용된 seeding 재료로는 black polypropylene, Ecofoam, white polystyrene의 세가지를 이용하였다. black polypropylene (SG=0.92)과 white polystyrene (SG=0.0125)은 폭 1 m 이내의 개수로 실험 장치에서 유속장의 해석에 많이 이용되고 Ecofoam (SG=0.0065)은 수리 모형실험에서 많이 이용된다. seeding 물질에 따른 바람의 영향을 분석하기 위해서 폭 60cm의 개수로에서 seeding 물질을 변경하면서 펌프의 조작에 의해 3가지 단면평균유속을 발생시키고, 각 평균유속조건에 대해 4가지의 바람세기 - 바람이 없을 때와 팬의 바람세기를 1단, 2단, 3단으로 조정 - 를 발생시켰으며, 개수로위에서 촬영한 이미지의 상류측기준점으로부터 0.3556m 하류 지점을 횡단하는 단면의 표면유속을 측정하여 비교하였고, 그 단면의 중앙에서 물표면 바로 위 지점의 풍속을 측정하였다. 각 Seeding 물질에 대해 팬을 켜지 않았을 때, 즉 바람의 영향이 없을 때 측정한 표면유속을 바람의 세기가 변한 경우의 기준 표면유속으로 이용하였다. 본 연구의 결과 비중이 0.01 내외인 Ecofoam과 white polystyrene에 비해 비중이 0.92인 black polypropylene은 대부분이 물속에 잠겨 있어 흐름과 거의 일치하여 움직임을 알 수 있었다. 또한 흐름의 평균유속이 0.165 m/s의 저유속에서 바람이 tracers에 미치는 영향이 평균유속 0.558m/s인 경우보다 커서, 바람의 세기의 증가에 따라 표면유속 측정값이 급속히 감소되었다. 흐름의 평균유속이 큰 경우에는 바람이 tracer에 마치는 영향이 현격히 줄어듬을 보이고 있다. 결론적으로 유속이 증가함에 따라 바람의 영향은 감소하나, 바람의 영향을 최소화시키기 위해서는 가급적 비중이 큰 물질(0.5

• The Journal of Small Business Innovation
• /
• v.20 no.2
• /
• pp.35-50
• /
• 2017

The aims of this study is to analyze the effectiveness of firms financial status quo and the scale of financial support on SMEs overall performance. We have gathered the financial guarantee data from 1998 to 2013, provided by Korea Credit Guarantee Fund (KODIT), to analyze the effectiveness of Financial policy. To classify both financial status quo and scale of financial support, we utilized the following variables; Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR) and newly guaranteed amount ratio. To take the measurement of the overall performance, we employed profitability, growth ratio and activity index. To minimize the effect of repeated financial support (redundancy benefits), firms were selected based on the following criteria: firms that receive no financial support prior to implementing such policy over the last 3 years and no new financial support over the last 2 years. Results suggest that firms with higher ICR and large newly guaranteed amount influence on financial performance in terms of profitability index. Firms with lower ICR and large scale financial support showed a better performance compare to firms with small-scale financial support. Firms with large-scale financial support, irrespective of ICR inclined to have better performance to those of small-scale financial support in terms of growth index. For activity index, however, firms with large scale support led to higher performance in the short term. In turn, our analysis presents objective perspective with respect to the effectiveness of financial policy through credit guarantee on overall performance of SMEs. This study, therefore, implies that well-balanced SMEs supporting policy may lead to better directions.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.17 no.9
• /
• pp.709-717
• /
• 2016

In this study, the convenience and efficiency of vision-based displacement measurement (VBDM) to estimate the cable tension of cable-stayed bridges and the requirements for its effective application were examined. To demonstrate its convenience and efficiency, it was confirmed that VBDM can be accomplished with a minimum amount of equipment using a commercial camcorder. In this case, it was found that the accuracy of estimation of the natural frequencies is sufficient, even though magnitude errors can occur when conducting high-speed recording at the low resolution afforded by the minimal equipment employed. It was also confirmed that the most important factor in detecting the precise natural frequencies is the use of the appropriate frequency range in the tension estimation using vibration. Based on these results, a study was carried out on the accuracy variation of the estimated tension according to the frame rate of a commercial camcorder. For this purpose, an experiment was performed to estimate the cable tension in a cable-stayed bridge model. Through this experiment, the detectable tensions of cables with various natural frequencies as a function of the frame rate were summarized. As a result, it was shown that the frame rate should be determined based on the natural frequency which is estimated to be located within the appropriate frequency range (approximately 10~75% of theoretical range) considering the aliasing and low-frequency distortion due to excitations.

• Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
• /
• v.3 no.1
• /
• pp.61-78
• /
• 1991

This paper descibes the study of application of a modified Neocognitron model with backward path for the recognition of Hangul(Korean) syllabic characters. In this original report, Fukushima demonstrated that Neocognitron can recognize hand written numerical characters of $19{\times}19$ size. This version accepts $61{\times}61$ images of handwritten Hangul syllabic characters or a part thereof with a mouse or with a scanner. It consists of an input layer and 3 pairs of Uc layers. The last Uc layer of this version, recognition layer, consists of 24 planes of $5{\times}5$ cells which tell us the identity of a grapheme receiving attention at one time and its relative position in the input layer respectively. It has been trained 10 simple vowel graphemes and 14 simple consonant graphemes and their spatial features. Some patterns which are not easily trained have been trained more extrensively. The trained nerwork which can classify indivisual graphemes with possible deformation, noise, size variance, transformation or retation wre then used to recongnize Korean syllabic characters using its selective attention mechanism for image segmentation task within a syllabic characters. On initial sample tests on input characters our model could recognize correctly up to 79%of the various test patterns of handwritten Korean syllabic charactes. The results of this study indeed show Neocognitron as a powerful model to reconginze deformed handwritten charavters with big size characters set via segmenting its input images as recognizable parts. The same approach may be applied to the recogition of chinese characters, which are much complex both in its structures and its graphemes. But processing time appears to be the bottleneck before it can be implemented. Special hardware such as neural chip appear to be an essestial prerquisite for the practical use of the model. Further work is required before enabling the model to recognize Korean syllabic characters consisting of complex vowels and complex consonants. Correct recognition of the neighboring area between two simple graphemes would become more critical for this task.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
• /
• v.23 no.2
• /
• pp.53-69
• /
• 2020

The increase of the impermeable area due to industrialization and urban development distorts the hydrological circulation system and cause serious stream drying phenomena. In order to manage this, it is necessary to develop a technology for impact assessment of stream drying phenomena, which enables quantitative evaluation and prediction. In this study, the cause of streamflow reduction was assessed for dam and weir watersheds in the five major river basins of South Korea by using distributed hydrological model DrySAT-WFT (Drying Stream Assessment Tool and Water Flow Tracking) and GIS time series data. For the modeling, the 5 influencing factors of stream drying phenomena (soil erosion, forest growth, road-river disconnection, groundwater use, urban development) were selected and prepared as GIS-based time series spatial data from 1976 to 2015. The DrySAT-WFT was calibrated and validated from 2005 to 2015 at 8 multipurpose dam watershed (Chungju, Soyang, Andong, Imha, Hapcheon, Seomjin river, Juam, and Yongdam) and 4 gauging stations (Osucheon, Mihocheon, Maruek, and Chogang) respectively. The calibration results showed that the coefficient of determination (R²) was 0.76 in average (0.66 to 0.84) and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.62 in average (0.52 to 0.72). Based on the 2010s (2006~2015) weather condition for the whole period, the streamflow impact was estimated by applying GIS data for each decade (1980s: 1976~1985, 1990s: 1986~1995, 2000s: 1996~2005, 2010s: 2006~2015). The results showed that the 2010s averaged-wet streamflow (Q95) showed decrease of 4.1~6.3%, the 2010s averaged-normal streamflow (Q185) showed decreased of 6.7~9.1% and the 2010s averaged-drought streamflow (Q355) showed decrease of 8.4~10.4% compared to 1980s streamflows respectively on the whole. During 1975~2015, the increase of groundwater use covered 40.5% contribution and the next was forest growth with 29.0% contribution among the 5 influencing factors.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
• /
• v.37
• /
• pp.89-118
• /
• 1999

The goal of this paper is to define the distinguishing characteristics of Korea's National Pension Scheme compared to the National Pension types of other countries and sees if those characteristics are significant enough in order to warrant calling these the "Korean Model". Also, another point to consider is, if this "Korean Model" does indeed exist, whether it is a 'sustainable' model or not. The National Pension Scheme, which was implemented in 1988, is similar to the public pension system formerly used in Japan. The National Pension Scheme broke away from this 'Japanese Model' in 1995 with implementation of the Farmers and Fishermen Pension, and the unique "Korean Model National Pension" was completed in 1998 with revision of the National Pension Law. The characteristics of the Korean National Pension can be defined as being balanced equally on ability and equality, possessing strong intergenerational income redistribution, having a nationally integrated structure, an incomplete funded method financial neutralism of the government and also as being a Monroe-oriented pension system. There are several limits to the sustainable development of this Korean Model National Pension, though. Even though the precondition of "the income determination problem of self-employed persons", which has strong intra-generational income redistribution. in actuality there are still many policy issues to be confronted such as the structure which 'transfers the burden to the future generation', the 'inter-generational inequity' of the incomplete funded system, persons excluded from coverage under the national integrated structure, 'compulsory loaning of the public sector by the National Pension Fund' under the government's principle of finance neutralism, the separate existence of the 'Monroe-oriented National Pension' from other pensions, etc.,. Therefore, it need to reform of NPS once again to sustainable development of KMNP.

• Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
• /
• v.18 no.2
• /
• pp.223-252
• /
• 2008

In this study, we attempt to propose a choice-based diffusion model with switching cost, which can be used to forecast the dynamic substitution and competition among previous and new products at both individual-level and aggregate level, especially when market data for new products is insufficient. Additionally, we apply the proposed model to the empirical case of substitution and competition among Analog Cable TV that represents previous fixed charged broadcasting service and Digital Cable TV and Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) that are new ones, verify the validities of our proposed model, and finally derive related empirical implications. For empirical application, we obtained data from survey conducted as follows. Survey was administered by Dongseo Research to 1,000 adults aging from 20 to 60 living in Seoul, Korea, in May of 2007, under the title of 'Demand analysis of next generation fixed interactive broadcasting services'. Conjoint survey modified as follows, was used. First, as the traditional approach in conjoint analysis, we extracted 16 hypothetical alternative cards from the orthogonal design using important attributes and levels of next generation interactive broadcasting services which were determined by previous literature review and experts' comments. Again, we divided 16 conjoint cards into 4 groups, and thus composed 4 choice sets with 4 alternatives each. Therefore, each respondent faces 4 different hypothetical choice situations. In addition to this, we added two ways of modification. First, we asked the respondents to include the status-quo broadcasting services they subscribe to, as another alternative in each choice set. As a result, respondents choose the most preferred alternative among 5 alternatives consisting of 1 alternative with current subscription and 4 hypothetical alternatives in 4 choice sets. Modification of traditional conjoint survey in this way enabled us to estimate the factors related to switching cost or switching threshold in addition to the effects of attributes. Also, by using both revealed preference data(1 alternative with current subscription) and stated preference data (4 hypothetical alternatives), additional advantages in terms of the estimation properties and more conservative and realistic forecast, can be achieved. Second, we asked the respondents to choose the most preferred alternative while considering their expected adoption timing or switching timing. Respondents are asked to report their expected adoption or switching timing among 14 half-year points after the introduction of next generation broadcasting services. As a result, for each respondent, 14 observations with 5 alternatives for each period, are obtained, which results in panel-type data. Finally, this panel-type data consisting of $4{\ast}14{\ast}1000=56000$observations is used for estimation of the individual-level consumer adoption model. From the results obtained by empirical application, in case of forecasting the demand of new products without considering existence of previous product(s) and(or) switching cost factors, it is found that overestimated speed of diffusion at introductory stage or distorted predictions can be obtained, and as such, validities of our proposed model in which both existence of previous products and switching cost factors are properly considered, are verified. Also, it is found that proposed model can produce flexible patterns of market evolution depending on the degree of the effects of consumer preferences for the attributes of the alternatives on individual-level state transition, rather than following S-shaped curve assumed a priori. Empirically, it is found that in various scenarios with diverse combinations of prices, IPTV is more likely to take advantageous positions over Digital Cable TV in obtaining subscribers. Meanwhile, despite inferiorities in many technological attributes, Analog Cable TV, which is regarded as previous product in our analysis, is likely to be substituted by new services gradually rather than abruptly thanks to the advantage in low service charge and existence of high switching cost in fixed charged broadcasting service market.