• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.13 no.12
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• pp.369-378
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• 2013

The Korean Won-Dollar exchange markets showed radical price movements in the late 1990s and 2008. Therefore it provides good sources for studying volatility phenomena. Using the GARCH option models, I analysed how the prices of foreign exchange options react volatilities in the foreign exchange spot prices. For this I compared the explanatory power of three option models(Black and Scholes, Duan, Heston and Nandi), using the Won-Dollar OTC option markets data from 2006 to 2013. I estimated the parameters using MLE and calculated the mean square pricing errors. According to the my empirical studies, the pricing errors of Duan, Black and Scholes models are 0.1%. And the pricing errors of the Heston and Nandi model is greatest among the three models. So I would like to recommend using Duan or Black and Scholes model for hedging the foreign exchange risks. Finally, the historical average of spot volatilities is about 14%, so trading the options around 5% may lead to serious losses to sellers.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.81-90
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• 2017

In Imjin River basin, three floods occurred between 1996 and 1999, causing many casualties and economic losses of 900 billion won. In Korea, flood damage is expected to increase in the future due to climate change. This study used the climate scenarios to estimate future flood damage costs and suggested a real options-based economic assessment method. Using proposed method, the flood control infrastructures in Imjin River basin were selected as a case study site to analyze the economic feasibility of the investment. Using RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) climate scenarios, the future flood damage costs were estimated through simulated rainfall data. This study analyzed the flood reduction benefits through investment in the flood control infrastructures. The volatility of flood damage reduction benefits were estimated assuming that the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 climate scenarios would be realized in the future. In 2071, the project option value would be determined by applying an extension option to invest in an upgrading that would allow the project to adapt to the flood of the 200-year return period. The results of the option values show that the two investment scenarios are economically feasible and the project under RCP8.5 climate scenario has more flood damage reduction benefits than RCP4.5. This study will help government decision makers to consider the uncertainty of climate change in the economic assessment of flood control infrastructures using real options analysis. We also proposed a method to quantify climate risk factors into economic values by using rainfall data provided by climate scenarios.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.181-186
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• 2013

In a corporate financing, the decision of optimal capital structure is becoming more critical issues and still remaining a problem to be solved though many of researcher have studied. Particularly, shipping companies need a huge amount of capital finance for new vessel's capacity and then they are considering what is the best capital structure. In this point of view, this study tries to investigate the determinants of debit maturity structure focused on the Korean shipping industry. As results of panel regression analysis, firm size, liquidity, chance of growth, good cash flow are major determinants of debit expiration structure in the Korean shipping companies.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society for Industrial Systems Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.63-73
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• 2006

대부분의 CEO들은 대규모 투자가 선행되는 정보시스템의 화폐적 가치에 확신을 가지고 싶어 한다. 지금까지 MIS 연구자들은 정보시스템의 조직적 성과에 관한 여러 가지 간접적인 증거를 보여주었으나 경영자들이 요구하는 정보시스템에 대한 화폐적 확신을 주는데 실패하였다. 본 연구는 최근 각 기업들이 도입하고 있는 BSC의 성과지표 중 정보시스템 관련 지표를 활용하여 기업의 계량적 및 비계량적 성과측정을 활용함으로써 조직의 정보시스템 성과를 화폐가치로 환산할 수 있는 방법을 제시하고자 한다. 이때 사례기반추론 시스템을 활용하면 사례베이스로부터 유사사례를 도출하고 이를 통하여 정보시스템 도입에 필요한 주요 정보를 추론할 수 있게 되어 조직에서 도입할 정보시스템의 잠재적 화폐가치를 어느 정도 가늠할 수 있다. 본 연구는 정보시스템의 화폐적 가치분석을 위하여 실물옵션 가격결정모형을 활용하였고 객관적 화폐가치 추론을 위한 웹 사이트 구축을 목표로 한다.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.103-116
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• 2004

It is needed to transfer the technology actively which has already developed to improve a up-to-date technology and foster the technological innovation. The technology transfer also can bring about a commercial success. To promote the technology transfer, it is needed to develop a new technology valuation model for a specific technology from a objective point of view, as well as to equip an institution such as the technology transfer center. The technology valuation from a objective point of view is of importance as the basic information for the price negotiation between a technology-buyer and a technology-seller. This paper takes aim at investigating a new technology valuation model and developing a technology valuation system for promoting the technology transfer. A new technology valuation system is developed as a web-enabling base. Using this users are able to estimate the value of specific technology on a real time efficiently.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.27-44
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• 2009

Economic value of a certain technology is of great interest and importance in a wide variety of investment circumstances. These vary from companies considering investing in R&D projects, to venture capitalists funding start-up companies. However, such valuation is extremely difficult in any case, and the cost of failure can be very high. Many techniques have been proposed to assist managers facing this issue, from traditional discounted cash flow analysis to more recent methods based on real options. In the meantime, the discounted cash flow method has limitations in applying the valuation of technology. At the same time, there have been various solutions to overcome theoretical problems of the method. Real options have been thought as a solution. However, there are another problems in using them in real world. This paper reviews the previous studies on the valuation of technology in several aspects, discusses the practicability of the various methods available, and explore the application of a hybrid model, which aims to make these rather aore the ideas more accessible to practicing managers.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.90-97
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• 2021

Saemangeum Development is the largest national project in South Korea, which has been developed for an agricultural, economic and tourist area for 30 years from 1987. In order to convert power sources that used to depend on nuclear and thermal power to eco-friendly for carbon reduction, the government plans to construct a 2.1GW floating photovoltaic project by investing 4.6 trillion won, as a public-private project. For success of the Saemangeum floating photovoltaic project, economic feasibility should be checked. This study defined the factors (construction cost, electricity selling price, power generation and maintenance cost) that give a effect to the volatility of the floating photovoltaic payoffs, and analyzed the volatility of payoffs during 20 years operation period. NPV and option value of the project were calculated by applying an option to abandon. According to NPV analysis, it is determined that projects are difficult to invest. But this project has economic feasibility through real options analysis. This study is expected to help decision-makers in the economic analysis of floating photovoltaic projects by using the real options analysis.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.135-147
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• 2009

The world has witnessed the dramatic expansion of international construction markets during the last decades, particularly around the developing economies and energy resource-rich countries. However, despite the booming markets, the risks of emerging regions have also increased under the rapidly changing environments confronting the global contractors. Most of all, success in overseas business mainly depends on selecting the right market to enter. Accordingly, the right market selection requires global firms to carefully carry out the scientific market entry decision by evaluating country risks, market prospects, firm's capability, level of competition, and among others. This study aims at developing a market entry model by the use of real option analysis (ROA) and scenario planning, which addresses the corporate strategic flexibility against the uncertainties encompassing the overseas construction markets. Based on the suggested approach, global contractors are expected to make a better decision rather than a typically static approach in pursuing, postponing, or abandoning a prospective market to their capacity with a concurrent consideration of uncertainties as well as its option value.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.1-12
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• 1997

파생금융상품이란 주식이나 채권과 같은 기준자산에 대해서 발행되는 2차 금융상품으로써 기존의 재무이론에서는 수리적 모형에 기반을 둔 가격결정모형을 이용하여 가치를 평가하였다. 그러나 이러한 전통적인 가격결정모형은 복잡한 현실세계를 단순화시키기 위한 제반 가정을 요구하기 때문에 이러한 가정이 현실에 부적합한 경우에는 모형가격이 실제가격으로부터 커다란 괴리를 갖게 된다. 본 연구에서는 전통적인 가격결정방법의 단점을 극복할 수 있는 자료 의존적인 인공신경망기법을 제시하고 대표적인 파생금융상품인 국내 전환사채의 가격결정에 적용해 봄으로써 그 가능성을 제시하였다. 인공신경망기법을 전환사채의 가격결정에 적용한 결과 전통적 가격결정방법에 비해 평균절대오차를 70%정도 줄일 수 있다.

• Journal of Korea Game Society
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.69-76
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• 2013

The financial value of early stage start-up has a tendency to depend more on the non-financial factors, but these are not efficiently reflected in the traditional valuation models. Therefore, most of valuation practices for early stage start-ups heavily relied on the guts of experts. To remedy this, this study suggests a model to directly reflect the non-financial factors especially for the real options approach. Actual process of valuation and the adjustment way were developed considering the characteristics of early stage start-ups in the game industry.