• Title/Summary/Keyword: 오차추정

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Ensemble Generation of Rainfall Based on the Error Characteristics of Radar Rainfall (레이더 강우 오차특성 기반의 강우 앙상블 생성)

  • Kang, Na Rae;Joo, Hong Jun;Lee, Myung Jin;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.247-247
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    • 2017
  • 수문분석이 있어 정확한 강우량 추정 및 강우 자료의 품질은 매우 중요한 요소이다. 유출분석의 기본 입력 자료인 만큼 홍수유출 결과에도 큰 영향을 미치게 되는데, 현재 하나의 확정적인 값으로 제공되는 레이더 강우 자료는 추정과정에서 많은 오차 및 불확실성을 포함하고 있다. 강우 자료의 불확실성은 기상현상의 예측능력 한계로 인한 것으로 관측지점에서의 발생 가능한 다양한 강우시나리오의 범위를 나타낸다. 본 연구에서는 임의의 값을 추정하는데 있어 하나의 값이 아닌 가능한 값들의 범위를 정의하거나 확률분포를 표현할 수 있는 확률론적인 방법을 이용하여 레이더 강우 앙상블을 생성하고자 하였다. 2012년 남강댐 유역에 발생한 태풍 '산바', '볼라벤'을 대상으로 자료간 오차 공분산을 고려하여 강우 앙상블을 생성하였으며, 레이더 강우에 내포된 불확실성 정도를 정량적으로 제시하였다. 생성된 강우 앙상블은 레이더 강우의 전체적인 편의보정뿐만 아니라 지상강우의 패턴을 잘 모의하고 있는 것으로 나타났으며, 레이더에 의해 추정한 강우의 불확실성을 잘 표현하고 있는 것으로 확인되었다. 강우 앙상블 생성 방법은 발생 가능한 다양한 강우 시나리오를 제공할 수 있으며 홍수예경보와 같은 의사 결정에 유용한 정보를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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An Analysis on Characteristics of Abnormal Broadcast GPS Ephemeris (GPS 방송 궤도력 이상의 특성 분석)

  • Lee, Je-Young;Kim, Hee-Sung;Lee, Hyung-Keun
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.610-617
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    • 2010
  • This paper analyzes the characteristics of abnormal broadcast GPS ephemeris by comparing distances between the receiver and the satellites. Effects of abnormal ephemeris on receiver's position estimate are closely related with range errors caused by variations of satellite positions. In more detail each range error depends on the satellite position error and the line of sight vector. Based on the fact, the ephemeris parameters are classified into three types depending on the size, the shape, and the shape of the satellite orbit to analyze the fault characteristics. The effects of satellite position errors caused by the three type s of parameters on the receiver's position estimate are analyze d in detail.

Improving Estimation Accuracy of Satellite Clock Error for GPS Satellite Clock Anomaly Detection (GPS 위성 시계 이상 검출을 위한 위성 시계 오차 추정 정확도 향상)

  • Heo, Youn-Jeong;Cho, Jeong-Ho;Heo, Moon-Beom
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.225-231
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    • 2011
  • The satellite clock anomalies, one of the abnormal signal factors of the GPS satellites, can have a significant impact on the GPS measurements. However, it can be difficult to detect the anomalies of the satellites clock before the range of the satellites clock error becomes bigger than the range of the other factors, due to the measurement including error of the orbit, ionosphere delay, troposphere delay, multipath and receiver clock. In order to perform quick and accurate detection by minimization of critical range in anomalies of the satellites clock, this paper suggested a solution to detect precise anomalies of the satellites clock after application of carrier smoothing filter from measurement by dual-frequency and adjustment of errors which can be occurred by other factor and the receiver clock errors. The performance of the proposed method was confirmed by comparing to the satellite clock biases which are provided by IGS.

Location Estimation Method using Extended Kalman Filter with Frequency Offsets in CSS WPAN (CSS WPAN에서 주파수 편이를 보상하는 확장 Kalman 필터를 사용한 이동노드의 위치추정 방식)

  • Nam, Yoon-Seok
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartC
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    • v.19C no.4
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    • pp.239-246
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    • 2012
  • The function of location estimation in WPAN has been studied and specified on the ultra wide band optionally. But the devices based on CSS(Chirp Spread Spectrum) specification has been used widely in the market because of its functionality, cheapness and support of development. As the CSS device uses 2.4GHz for a carrier frequency and the sampling frequency is lower than that of the UWB, the resolution of a timestamp is very coarse. Then actually the error of a measured distance is very large about 30cm~1m at 10 m depart. And the location error in ($10m{\times}10m$) environment is known as about 1m~2m. So for some applications which require more accurate location information, it is very natural and important to develop a sophisticated post processing algorithm after distance measurements. In this paper, we have studied extended Kalman filter with the frequency offsets of anchor nodes, and proposed a novel algorithm frequency offset compensated extended Kalman filter. The frequency offsets are composed with a variable as a common frequency offset and constants as individual frequency offsets. The proposed algorithm shows that the accurate location estimation, less than 10cm distance error, with CSS WPAN nodes is possible practically.

Reliability Evaluation of Compressive Strength of Reinforced Concrete Members (철근 콘크리트 구조 부재의 압축강도 추정 신뢰도 평가)

  • Hong, Seong-Uk;Park, Chan-Woo;Lee, Yong-Taeg;Kim, Seung-Hun
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.132-140
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    • 2019
  • In this study, a specimen composed of columns, walls, beams, and slabs was fabricated to investigate the estimated reliability using nondestructive test method for the location of structural members of reinforced concrete single layer structures. And for accurate analysis in the comparison process with the existing estimation formula, we try to analyze the reliability through statistical approach by using error rate comparison and Confidence interval estimation. As a result, The average error rate of the core test was 18.8% compared with the result of estimating the compressive strength using the ultrasonic pulse velocity method. The average error rate of the core test results compared with the result of estimating the compressive strength using the rebound hardness method was 20.1%, confirming the field applicability. it is judged that the reliability of the compressive strength estimation can be derived from the wall member to make a quick and efficient structure safety diagnosis using the ultrasonic pulse velocity method. In addition, it is judged that the reliability of the compressive strength estimation can be derived from the beam member to make a quick and efficient structure safety diagnosis using the rebound hardness method.

High-Capacity Reversible Watermarking through Predicted Error Expansion and Error Estimation Compensation (추정 오차 확장 및 오류 예측 보정을 통한 고용량 가역 워터마킹)

  • Lee, Hae-Yeoun;Kim, Kyung-Su
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.17B no.4
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    • pp.275-286
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    • 2010
  • Reversible watermarking which can preserve the original quality of the digital contents and protect the copyright has been studied actively. Especially, in medical, military, and art fields, the need for reversible watermarking is increasing. This paper proposes a high-capacity reversible watermarking through predicted error expansion and error estimation compensation. Watermark is embedded by expanding the difference histogram between the original value and the predicted value. Differently from previous methods calculating the difference between adjacent pixels, the presented method calculates the difference between the original value and the predicted value, and that increases the number of the histogram value, where the watermark is embedded. As a result, the high capacity is achieved. The inserted watermark is extracted by restoring the histogram between the original value and the predicted value. To prove the performance, the presented algorithm is compared with other previous methods on various test images. The result supports that the presented algorithm has a perfect reversibility, a high image quality, and a high capacity.

Evaluation of Compression Index for Natural Clay Using the Compression Characteristic of Reconstituted Clay (재성형점토의 압축특성을 이용한 자연점토의 압축지수 추정)

  • Hong, Sung-Jin;Kim, Dong-Hee;Lee, Moon-Joo;Jie, Hong-Keun;Lee, Woo-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.5-13
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    • 2013
  • The compression index, representing the compressibility of clay, is generally obtained from the consolidation test, or predicted by empirical correlations using soil properties. However, empirical methods have regional limitations, because the compression index is affected not only by soil properties but also by site characteristics, such as deposition conditions and stress history. In this study, a method evaluating the compression index from typical soil properties is suggested using the characteristics of reconstituted clay. By analyzing the consolidation test results of Busan clay, the suggested method is verified, and the analysis of prediction error is carried out. It is shown that the proposed method evaluates the compression index more accurately than empirical methods previously suggested. The prediction errors occur by assumption, and are inversely proportional to $e_{cross}/e_0$, obviously.

A Study on Bagging Neural Network for Predicting Defect Size of Steam Generator Tube in Nuclear Power Plant (원전 증기발생기 세관 결함 크기 예측을 위한 Bagging 신경회로망에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kyung-Jin;Jo, Nam-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.302-310
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we studied Bagging neural network for predicting defect size of steam generator(SG) tube in nuclear power plant. Bagging is a method for creating an ensemble of estimator based on bootstrap sampling. For predicting defect size of SG tube, we first generated eddy current testing signals for 4 defect patterns of SG tube with various widths and depths. Then, we constructed single neural network(SNN) and Bagging neural network(BNN) to estimate width and depth of each defect. The estimation performance of SNN and BNN were measured by means of peak error. According to our experiment result, average peak error of SNN and BNN for estimating defect depth were 0.117 and 0.089mm, respectively. Also, in the case of estimating defect width, average peak error of SNN and BNN were 0.494 and 0.306mm, respectively. This shows that the estimation performance of BNN is superior to that of SNN.

Empirical Analysis of the Effect of EU ETS on the CO2 Emission (유럽공동체 배출권거래제 도입 효과에 대한 실증분석)

  • Kim, Hyun;Lee, Gwanghoon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.875-896
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    • 2010
  • Using the difference in differences (DID) estimation method, this paper analyzes the effect of European Union's Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on the reduction of per capita $CO_2$ emission among the twenty five participating countries. For this, the panel dataset of forty two European countries for the period 1990~2007 is constructed. Special attention is paid to the bias of the standard errors in the DID estimation due to the presence of serial correlation in the error terms. The results shows quite a robust effect of EU ETS on the reduction of per capita $CO_2$ emission among the participating countries regardless of the calculation methods of standard errors. The results also shows that the increased implicit tax rate on energy has a robust effect on the reduction of per capita $CO_2$ emission. On the contrary, the estimation results regarding the effects of per capita GDP and population density on the per capita $CO_2$ emission seem inconsistent. In particular, the environmental Kuznets curve is not statistically supported with the use of robust standard errors.

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