• Title/Summary/Keyword: 오차정량화

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A Simulation of Agro-Climate Index over the Korean Peninsula Using Dynamical Downscaling with a Numerical Weather Prediction Model (수치예보모형을 이용한 역학적 규모축소 기법을 통한 농업기후지수 모사)

  • Ahn, Joong-Bae;Hur, Ji-Na;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2010
  • A regional climate model (RCM) can be a powerful tool to enhance spatial resolution of climate and weather information (IPCC, 2001). In this study we conducted dynamical downscaling using Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) as a RCM in order to obtain high resolution regional agroclimate indices over the Korean Peninsula. For the purpose of obtaining detailed high resolution agroclimate indices, we first reproduced regional weather for the period of March to June, 2002-2008 with dynamic downscaling method under given lateral boundary conditions from NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data. Normally, numerical model results have shown biases against observational results due to the uncertainties in the modelis initial conditions, physical parameterizations and our physical understanding on nature. Hence in this study, by employing a statistical method, the systematic bias in the modelis results was estimated and corrected for better reproduction of climate on high resolution. As a result of the correction, the systematic bias of the model was properly corrected and the overall spatial patterns in the simulation were well reproduced, resulting in more fine-resolution climatic structures. Based on these results, the fine-resolution agro-climate indices were estimated and presented. Compared with the indices derived from observation, the simulated indices reproduced the major and detailed spatial distributions. Our research shows a possibility to simulate regional climate on high resolution and agro-climate indices by using a proper downscaling method with a dynamical weather forecast model and a statistical correction method to minimize the model bias.

Development of a Risk Management Information System(RMIS) for the LPG refueling station by utilizing GIS (지리정보시스템(GIS)을 이용한 LPG 충전소 위험관리정보시스템 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Ham, Eun-Gu;Roh, Sam-Kew
    • 한국가스학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2007.04a
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    • pp.195-200
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    • 2007
  • 본 연구는 도심지에 위치한 LPG 충전소를 연구범위로 하여 공간정보의 활용이 가장 많이 요구되는 안전관리 분야의 업무를 중심으로 공간정보를 효율적으로 구축 활용하기 위하여 데이터베이스를 중심으로 위험관리정보 시스템을 개발하였다. 이를 바탕으로 정량적 위험성 평가의 자동화를 통해 나타난 위험성을 실시간에 제어하기 위한 필요조건을 표준화하여 기초 정보자료로 구축, 이를 지리정보기능과 연동하여 LPG 충전소의 안전검사의 효율화, 사전 위험성 평가, 사고대응 판단의 효과적인 의사결정을 유도 할 수 있는 기반을 제공한다. 위험관리정보시스템(RMIS, Risk Management Information System) 개발절차는 다음과 같다 첫째, 도심지에 위치한 LPG 충전소 위험성 평가를 수행함에 있어서 기본적인 데이터인 부지내(On-site) 관련 자료와 부지 외(Off-site) 관련 자료를 관계형 데이터베이스(RDB, Relational Database)로 개발하였다. 둘째, Visual Basic을 이용하여 사용자가 효과적으로 위험을 관리 제어 할 수 있는 위험관리 통합 데이터베이스 시스템 개발하였다. 셋째, 위험관리 통합 데이터베이스 시스템과 지리정보시스템에 연동을 통한 의사결정 방안 제시하였다. 위험관리정보시스템(RMIS) 프로그램을 개발을 통하여 다음과 같은 결과를 도출하였다. 첫째, 위험관리 데이터 이용하여 사용자와 검사자가 효과적으로 위험을 사전관리 할 수 있는 공유정보를 구축하였다. 둘째, 위험 관리를 부지 내와 부지 외로 나누어 관리함으로서 시설 내부 뿐 만 아니라 시설외부에 미치는 영향을 모두 고려하여 구축하므로 서, 중대사고에 대응 할 수 있는 종합적인 안전관리 기반을 조성하였다. 셋째, 사용자 인터페이스를 바탕으로 비상사태 발생시에 신속하고 정확한 의사결정을 할 수 있는 기반을 조성하였다. 제공하여 응용GIS 구축의 생산성 및 품질 향상에 기여할 뿐만 아니라 우리의 최종목표인 GIS 소프트웨어 자동 생산에도 크게 기여할 것으로 사료된다. 등)을 교통망상에 표시할 수 있음으로서 의사결정에 보다 많은 도움을 줄 수 있을 것이다. 비트율의 증가와 화질 열화는 각각 최대 1.32%와 최대 0.11dB로 무시할 수 있을 정도로 작음을 확인 하였다.을 알 수 있었다. 현지관측에 비해 막대한 비용과 시간을 절약할 수 있는 위성영상해석방법을 이용한 방법은 해양수질파악이 가능할 것으로 판단되며, GIS를 이용하여 다양하고 복잡한 자료를 데이터베이스화함으로써 가시화하고, 이를 기초로 공간분석을 실시함으로써 환경요소별 공간분포에 대한 파악을 통해 수치모형실험을 이용한 각종 환경영향의 평가 및 예측을 위한 기초자료로 이용이 가능할 것으로 사료된다.염총량관리 기본계획 시 구축된 모형 매개변수를 바탕으로 분석을 수행하였다. 일차오차분석을 이용하여 수리매개변수와 수질매개변수의 수질항목별 상대적 기여도를 파악해 본 결과, 수리매개변수는 DO, BOD, 유기질소, 유기인 모든 항목에 일정 정도의 상대적 기여도를 가지고 있는 것을 알 수 있었다. 이로부터 수질 모형의 적용 시 수리 매개변수 또한 수질 매개변수의 추정 시와 같이 보다 세심한 주의를 기울여 추정할 필요가 있을 것으로 판단된다.변화와 기흉 발생과의 인과관계를 확인하고 좀 더 구체화하기 위한 연구가 필요할 것이다.게 이루어질 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.는 초과수익률이 상승하지만, 이후로는 감소하므로, 반전거래전략을 활용하는 경우 주식투자기간은 24개월이하의 중단기가 적합함을 발견하였다. 이상의 행태적 측면과 투자성과측면의 실증결과를 통하여 한국주식시장에 있어서 시장수익률을 평균적으로 초과할 수 있는 거래전략은 존재하므로 이러한 전략을 개발 및 활용할 수 있으며, 특히, 한국주

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Multi-task Learning Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Monitoring and Forecasting through Fusion of Geostationary Satellite Data and Numerical Forecasting Model Output (정지궤도 기상위성 및 수치예보모델 융합을 통한 Multi-task Learning 기반 태풍 강도 실시간 추정 및 예측)

  • Lee, Juhyun;Yoo, Cheolhee;Im, Jungho;Shin, Yeji;Cho, Dongjin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_3
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    • pp.1037-1051
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    • 2020
  • The accurate monitoring and forecasting of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) are able to effectively reduce the overall costs of disaster management. In this study, we proposed a multi-task learning (MTL) based deep learning model for real-time TC intensity estimation and forecasting with the lead time of 6-12 hours following the event, based on the fusion of geostationary satellite images and numerical forecast model output. A total of 142 TCs which developed in the Northwest Pacific from 2011 to 2016 were used in this study. The Communications system, the Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Meteorological Imager (MI) data were used to extract the images of typhoons, and the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) provided by the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was employed to extract air and ocean forecasting data. This study suggested two schemes with different input variables to the MTL models. Scheme 1 used only satellite-based input data while scheme 2 used both satellite images and numerical forecast modeling. As a result of real-time TC intensity estimation, Both schemes exhibited similar performance. For TC intensity forecasting with the lead time of 6 and 12 hours, scheme 2 improved the performance by 13% and 16%, respectively, in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) when compared to scheme 1. Relative root mean squared errors(rRMSE) for most intensity levels were lessthan 30%. The lower mean absolute error (MAE) and RMSE were found for the lower intensity levels of TCs. In the test results of the typhoon HALONG in 2014, scheme 1 tended to overestimate the intensity by about 20 kts at the early development stage. Scheme 2 slightly reduced the error, resulting in an overestimation by about 5 kts. The MTL models reduced the computational cost about 300% when compared to the single-tasking model, which suggested the feasibility of the rapid production of TC intensity forecasts.

Errors in Net Ecosystem Exchanges of CO2, Water Vapor, and Heat Caused by Storage Fluxes Calculated by Single-level Scalar Measurements Over a Rice Paddy (단일 높이에서 관측된 저장 플럭스를 사용할 때 발생하는 논의 이산화탄소, 수증기, 현열의 순생태계교환량 오차)

  • Moon, Minkyu;Kang, Minseok;Thakuri, Bindu Malla;Lee, Jung-Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.227-235
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    • 2015
  • Using eddy covariance method, net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of $CO_2$ ($F_{CO_2}$), $H_2O$ (LE), and sensible heat (H) can be approximated as the sum of eddy flux ($F_c$) and storage flux term ($F_s$). Depending on strength and distribution of sink/source of scalars and magnitude of vertical turbulence mixing, the rates of changes in scalars are different with height. In order to calculate $F_s$ accurately, the differences should be considered using scalar profile measurement. However, most of flux sites for agricultural lands in Asia do not operate profile system and estimate $F_s$ using single-level scalars from eddy covariance system under the assumption that the rates of changes in scalars are constant regardless of the height. In this study, we measured $F_c$ and $F_s$ of $CO_2$, $H_2O$, and air temperature ($T_a$) using eddy covariance and profile system (i.e., the multi-level measurement system in scalars from eddy covariance measurement height to the land surface) at the Chengmicheon farmland site in Korea (CFK) in order to quantify the differences between $F_s$ calculated by single-level measurements ($F_s_{-single}$ i.e., $F_s$ from scalars measured by profile system only at eddy covariance system measurement height) and $F_s$ calculated by profile measurements and verify the errors of NEE caused by $F_s_{-single}$. The rate of change in $CO_2$, $H_2O$, and Ta were varied with height depending on the magnitudes and distribution of sink and source and the stability in the atmospheric boundary layer. Thus, $F_s_{-single}$ underestimated or overestimated $F_s$ (especially 21% underestimation in $F_s$ of $CO_2$ around sunrise and sunset (0430-0800 h and 1630-2000 h)). For $F_{CO_2}$, the errors in $F_s_{-single}$ generated 3% and 2% underestimation of $F_{CO_2}$ during nighttime (2030-0400 h) and around sunrise and sunset, respectively. In the process of nighttime correction and partitioning of $F_{CO_2}$, these differences would cause an underestimation in carbon balance at the rice paddy. In contrast, there were little differences at the errors in LE and H caused by the error in $F_s_{-single}$, irrespective of time.

Evaluation of Meteorological Elements Used for Reference Evapotranspiration Calculation of FAO Penman-Monteith Model (FAO Penman-Monteith 모형의 증발산량 산정에 이용되는 기상요소의 평가)

  • Hur, Seung-Oh;Jung, Kang-Ho;Ha, Sang-Keun;Kim, Jeong-Gyu
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.274-279
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    • 2006
  • The exact estimation of crop evapotranspiration containing reference or potential evapotranspiration is necessary for decision of crop water requirements. This study was carried out for the evaluation and application of various meteorological elements used for the calculation of reference evapotranspiration (RET) by FAO Penman-Monteith (PM) model. Meteorological elements including temperature, net radiation, soil heat flux, albedo, relative humidity, wind speed measured by meteorological instruments are required for RET calculation by FAO PM model. The average of albedo measured for crop growing period was 0.20, ranging from 0.12 to 0.23, and was slightly lower than 0.23. Determinant coefficients by measured albedo and green grass albedo were 0.97, 0.95 and standard errors were 0.74, 0.80 respectively. Usefulness of deductive regression models was admitted. To assess an influence of soil heat flux (G) on FAO PM, RET with G=0 was compared with RETs using G at 5cm soil depth ($G_{5cm}$) and G at surface ($G_{0cm}$). As the results, RET estimated by G=0 was well agreed with RET calculated by measured G. Therefore, estimated net radiation, G=0 and albedo of green grass could be used for RET calculation by FAO PM.

Comparative assessment and uncertainty analysis of ensemble-based hydrologic data assimilation using airGRdatassim (airGRdatassim을 이용한 앙상블 기반 수문자료동화 기법의 비교 및 불확실성 평가)

  • Lee, Garim;Lee, Songhee;Kim, Bomi;Woo, Dong Kook;Noh, Seong Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.10
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    • pp.761-774
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    • 2022
  • Accurate hydrologic prediction is essential to analyze the effects of drought, flood, and climate change on flow rates, water quality, and ecosystems. Disentangling the uncertainty of the hydrological model is one of the important issues in hydrology and water resources research. Hydrologic data assimilation (DA), a technique that updates the status or parameters of a hydrological model to produce the most likely estimates of the initial conditions of the model, is one of the ways to minimize uncertainty in hydrological simulations and improve predictive accuracy. In this study, the two ensemble-based sequential DA techniques, ensemble Kalman filter, and particle filter are comparatively analyzed for the daily discharge simulation at the Yongdam catchment using airGRdatassim. The results showed that the values of Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) were improved from 0.799 in the open loop simulation to 0.826 in the ensemble Kalman filter and to 0.933 in the particle filter. In addition, we analyzed the effects of hyper-parameters related to the data assimilation methods such as precipitation and potential evaporation forcing error parameters and selection of perturbed and updated states. For the case of forcing error conditions, the particle filter was superior to the ensemble in terms of the KGE index. The size of the optimal forcing noise was relatively smaller in the particle filter compared to the ensemble Kalman filter. In addition, with more state variables included in the updating step, performance of data assimilation improved, implicating that adequate selection of updating states can be considered as a hyper-parameter. The simulation experiments in this study implied that DA hyper-parameters needed to be carefully optimized to exploit the potential of DA methods.

Development of Regularized Expectation Maximization Algorithms for Fan-Beam SPECT Data (부채살 SPECT 데이터를 위한 정칙화된 기댓값 최대화 재구성기법 개발)

  • Kim, Soo-Mee;Lee, Jae-Sung;Lee, Soo-Jin;Kim, Kyeong-Min;Lee, Dong-Soo
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.464-472
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    • 2005
  • Purpose: SPECT using a fan-beam collimator improves spatial resolution and sensitivity. For the reconstruction from fan-beam projections, it is necessary to implement direct fan-beam reconstruction methods without transforming the data into the parallel geometry. In this study, various fan-beam reconstruction algorithms were implemented and their performances were compared. Materials and Methods: The projector for fan-beam SPECT was implemented using a ray-tracing method. The direct reconstruction algorithms implemented for fan-beam projection data were FBP (filtered backprojection), EM (expectation maximization), OS-EM (ordered subsets EM) and MAP-EM OSL (maximum a posteriori EM using the one-step late method) with membrane and thin-plate models as priors. For comparison, the fan-beam protection data were also rebinned into the parallel data using various interpolation methods, such as the nearest neighbor, bilinear and bicubic interpolations, and reconstructed using the conventional EM algorithm for parallel data. Noiseless and noisy projection data from the digital Hoffman brain and Shepp/Logan phantoms were reconstructed using the above algorithms. The reconstructed images were compared in terms of a percent error metric. Results: for the fan-beam data with Poisson noise, the MAP-EM OSL algorithm with the thin-plate prior showed the best result in both percent error and stability. Bilinear interpolation was the most effective method for rebinning from the fan-beam to parallel geometry when the accuracy and computation load were considered. Direct fan-beam EM reconstructions were more accurate than the standard EM reconstructions obtained from rebinned parallel data. Conclusion: Direct fan-beam reconstruction algorithms were implemented, which provided significantly improved reconstructions.

Validation of ECOSTRESS Based Land Surface Temperature and Evapotranspiration (PT-JPL) Data Across Korea (국내에서 ECOSTRESS 지표면 온도 및 증발산(PT-JPL) 자료의 검증)

  • Park, Ki Jin;Kim, Ki Young;Kim, Chan Young;Park, Jong Min
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.44 no.5
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    • pp.637-648
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    • 2024
  • The frequency of extreme weather events such as heavy and extreme rainfall has been increasing due to global climate change. Accordingly, it is essential to quantify hydrometeorological variables for efficient water resource management. Among the various hydro-meteorological variables, Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Evapotranspiration (ET) play key roles in understanding the interaction between the surface and the atmosphere. In Korea, LST and ET are mainly observed through ground-based stations, which also have limitation in obtaining data from ungauged watersheds, and thus, it hinders to estimate spatial behavior of LST and ET. Alternatively, remote sensing-based methods have been used to overcome the limitation of ground-based stations. In this study, we evaluated the applicability of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) LST and ET data estimated across Korea (from July 1, 2018 to December 31, 2022). For validation, we utilized NASA's MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and eddy covariance flux tower observations managed by agencies under the Ministry of Environment of South Korea. Overall, results indicated that ECOSTRESS-based LSTs showed similar temporal trends (R: 0.47~0.73) to MODIS and ground-based observations. The index of agreement also showed a good agreement of ECOSTRESS-based LST with reference datasets (ranging from 0.82 to 0.91), although it also revealed distinctive uncertainties depending on the season. The ECOSTRESS-based ET demonstrated the capability to capture the temporal trends observed in MODIS and ground-based ET data, but higher Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error were also exhibited. This is likely due to the low acquisition rate of the ECOSTRESS data and environmental factors such as cooling effect of evapotranspiration, overestimation during the morning. This study suggests conducting additional validation of ECOSTRESS-based LST and ET, particularly in topographical and hydrological aspects. Such validation efforts could enhance the practical application of ECOSTRESS for estimating basin-scale LST and ET in Korea.

Software Reliability Growth Modeling in the Testing Phase with an Outlier Stage (하나의 이상구간을 가지는 테스팅 단계에서의 소프트웨어 신뢰도 성장 모형화)

  • Park, Man-Gon;Jung, Eun-Yi
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.5 no.10
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    • pp.2575-2583
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    • 1998
  • The productionof the highly relible softwae systems and theirs performance evaluation hae become important interests in the software industry. The software evaluation has been mainly carried out in ternns of both reliability and performance of software system. Software reliability is the probability that no software error occurs for a fixed time interval during software testing phase. These theoretical software reliability models are sometimes unsuitable for the practical testing phase in which a software error at a certain testing stage occurs by causes of the imperfect debugging, abnornal software correction, and so on. Such a certatin software testing stage needs to be considered as an outlying stage. And we can assume that the software reliability does not improve by means of muisance factor in this outlying testing stage. In this paper, we discuss Bavesian software reliability growth modeling and estimation procedure in the presence of an imidentitied outlying software testing stage by the modification of Jehnski Moranda. Also we derive the Bayes estimaters of the software reliability panmeters by the assumption of prior information under the squared error los function. In addition, we evaluate the proposed software reliability growth model with an unidentified outlying stage in an exchangeable model according to the values of nuisance paramether using the accuracy, bias, trend, noise metries as the quantilative evaluation criteria through the compater simulation.

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Validation Study for Image Performance of I-131 Using GATE Simulation Program (GATE 시뮬레이션 프로그램을 이용한 I-131의 영상 특성의 타당성에 관한 연구)

  • Baek, Cheol-Ha;Kim, Dae Ho;Lee, Yong-Gu;Lee, Youngjin
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.133-137
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to validate for GATE (Geant4 Application for Tomographic Emission) simulation by comparing the results of GATE simulation and experiment in real SPECT system. Futhermore, we want to prove that it is possible that the quantitative research of gamma camera/SPECT imaging for therapeutic radio isotope by using GATE simulation. In this study, the SPECT system on simulation referred to the parameters of Stream-R Forte version 1.2 (Philips Medical System, Best and Heerlen, Netherlands). To understand the I-131 image of gamma camera/SPECT system, we acquired the energy spectrum and measured the full width at half maximum (FWHM) which comes from line spread function (LSF) with and without scatter material in real SPECT system. And to compare with experiment, we also measured the FWHM and acquired the energy spectrum without scatter material in GATE simulation. As a result, without scatter material, the energy peak was almost same location, which are located nearby 364 keV, and other spectrum factors are same tendency in both cases. The FWHM was increased by increasing the distance of source to detector, and the error rate was approximately 3.8%. When we used the line source with scatter material, energy spectrum also indicated similar tendency in both cases. As you confirmed earlier, GATE simulation included real instrument and radioisotope characters for therapeutic radioisotope. Therefore this result that it was possible that various quantitative study for therapeutic radioisotope imaging in gamma camera/SPECT using GATE simulation.