• Title/Summary/Keyword: 오차수정모형

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The Empirical Analysis about Structural Characteristics of the Housing Jeonse Price Change in Seoul (서울시 주택전세가격 변동양상에 대한 실증분석)

  • Jung, Yeong-Ki;Kim, Kyung-Hoon;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.89-98
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    • 2012
  • While the housing transaction price of Seoul tends to be stagnant or declining in line with the housing market recession since 2007, the jeonse price keeps continual increase. Such flow of jeonse price change has a serious influence on ordinary person's housing stability seriously. Therefore, it is very meaningful in terms of social policy to analyze the trend of recent jeonse price change. This study aims to have an empirical analysis of structural characteristics of the trend of recent jeonse price change. After the review of various previous studies, this study selected housing jeonse price index, non-sold house quantity, jeonse vs. transaction price rate, and housing construction performance as analytical variables, and employed monthly time series resources from January 2007 to April 2011. As a result, when the housing supply reduced, the potential quantity for jeonse market reduced that occurred unbalance of supply and demand in jeonse market. In turn, it caused the increase of jeonse price. And, in case of jeonse vs. transaction price rate change, the rate increased which means the increase of required rate of return of invested demand. As such, the increase of market risk degenerates the investment sentiment which caused the reduction of quantity for jeonse market as a submarket.

A Relation between Financing Conditions and Business Operation of a Construction Company (자금조달환경과 건설업체 경영상태 간의 관계성 분석 연구)

  • Seo, Jeong-Bum;Lee, Sang-Hyo;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2012
  • A construction project is very costly and takes a long time to make investment and yield profit. For this reason, financial institutions are cautious about financing construction projects. Meanwhile, a construction company needs financing from financial institutions to cover a large expense of a construction project. Thus, there is likely to be a close correlation between financing conditions and business operation of a construction company. To examine the relationship, variables were identified that are related to insolvency of a construction company and changes in financing conditions. The analysis period is between the second quarter of 2001 and the fourth quarter of 2010. Data was retrieved from TS2000 established by Korea Listed Companies Association (KLCA), Statistics Office, and Construction Economy Research Institute of Korea (CERIK). In terms of methodology, VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) was used to analyze dynamic relationship between changes in financing conditions and insolvency of a construction company based on the identified variables. The hypothesis was that changes in financing conditions would significantly affect business of a construction company, but, the analysis did not find a close relation between the two factors. However, it was shown that poor business of a construction company affects financing conditions adversely.

정유사 주유소간 휘발유 가격발견에 관한 연구

  • Park, Hae-Seon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.493-517
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    • 2012
  • This paper analyzes a price discovery process for gasoline among branded and independent stations in Korea using a vector error correction model (VECM) and directed acyclic graphs (DAG). Two data sets for daily prices of medium level gasoline running from April 15, 2008 to May 31, 2009 and from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2011 are used for empirical analysis. Empirical results show that S-OIL has an exogeneity and played a important role in the flow of price information in the market in the first period. In the second period, SK energy played a key role in price discovery process in the market. The price of NH-OIL stations do not cause the price of any other stations, which implies that the entrance of new branded stations with lower gasoline price to market has no influence on gasoline prices of retail markets.

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A Study on Factors Affecting the Supply of Apartments in Changwon City (창원시 아파트 공급량에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Joo-Han
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.35-50
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to examine which factors are important in determining the amount of the apartment supply in Changwon City. Additionally, this study is to examine the changes in the determination of the amount of apartment supply in Changwon by dividing it into before and after 2016 as the city showed a large difference in apartment supply that caused structural changes during this time period. This study shows that the increase in the number of housing construction permits in Changwon before 2016 had a negative impact on the housing market as well as causing a decrease in the supply of apartments in Changwon after 2016. As a result of the shortsighted predictions on the housing market of Changwon from before 2016, it still affects the current housing market as of June 2020. The implication of this study is that through the housing market system of Changwon City, they can take the role as a control tower in Changwon City and propose principles and standards for supply control in order to better predict the demand of the housing market.

An Empirical Analysis on the Long-term Balance of Bunker Oil Prices Using the Co-integration Model and Vector Error Correction Model (공적분·벡터오차수정모형을 활용한 벙커유 가격의 장기균형 수렴에 관한 실증분석)

  • Ahn, Young-Gyun;Lee, Min-Kyu
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.75-86
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    • 2019
  • This study performs a factor analysis that affects the bunker oil price using the Co-integration model and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). For this purpose, we use data from Clarkson and the analysis results show 17.6% decrease in bunker oil price when the amount of crude oil production increases at 1.0%, 10.3% increase in bunker oil price when the seaborne trade volume increases at 1.0%, 1.0% decrease in bunker oil price when total volume of vessels increases at 1.0%, and 0.003% increase in bunker oil price when 1.0% increase in world GDP, respectively. This study is meaningful in that this study estimates the speed of convergence to long-term equilibrium and identifies the price adjust mechanism which naturally exists in bunker oil market. And it is expected that the future study can provide statistically more meaningful econometric results if it can obtain data during more long-periods and use more various kinds of explanatory variables.

Impact of ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) on the Performance of Electric Utilities (ESG(Environmental, Social, Governance)가 발전기업의 성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Ko, Byungguk;Lee, Kyuhwan;Yoon, Yongbeum;Park, Soojin
    • New & Renewable Energy
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.60-72
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    • 2022
  • The environmental, social, and governance (ESG) score is gaining recognition as important nonfinancial investment criteria. With climate change emerging as a global issue, energy companies must pay attention to the ESG impact on corporate performance. In this study, the ESG impact on the performance of energy companies was analyzed based on 23 companies selected from the S&P 500. The panel corrected standard error methodology was used. The Refinitiv ESG score was the independent variable, and financial performance metrics, such as Tobin's Q, return on assets, and return on equity, were the dependent variables. It was found that the ESG score is positively associated with long-term corporate value but not with short-term profitability in the electricity utility industry. Among the subcategories of ESG, the environmental and social scores also showed positive correlations with long-term corporate value. A direct incentive policy is recommended that can offset expenses for ESG activities to reduce carbon emission in the energy sector.

Comparison of monitoring the output variable and the input variable in the integrated process control (통합공정관리에서 출력변수와 입력변수를 탐지하는 절차의 비교)

  • Lee, Jae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.679-690
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    • 2011
  • Two widely used approaches for improving the quality of the output of a process are statistical process control (SPC) and automatic process control (APC). In recent hybrid processes that combine aspects of the process and parts industries, process variations due to both the inherent wandering and special causes occur commonly, and thus simultaneous application of APC and SPC schemes is needed to effectively keep such processes close to target. The simultaneous implementation of APC and SPC schemes is called integrated process control (IPC). In the IPC procedure, the output variables are monitored during the process where adjustments are repeatedly done by its controller. For monitoring the APC-controlled process, control charts can be generally applied to the output variable. However, as an alternative, some authors suggested that monitoring the input variable may improve the chance of detection. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of several monitoring statistics, such as the output variable, the input variable, and the difference variable, for efficiently monitoring the APC-controlled process when we assume IMA(1,1) noise model with a minimum mean squared error adjustment policy.

A Study on the Effect of Changes in Oil Price on Dry Bulk Freight Rates and Intercorrelations between Dry Bulk Freight Rates (국제유가의 변화가 건화물선 운임에 미치는 영향과 건화물선 운임간의 상관관계에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Sang-Kuck;Kim, Seong-Ki
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.217-240
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    • 2011
  • In this study, vector autoregressive and vector error correction models in the short-run dynamics are considered to analyze the effect of the changes in international crude oil prices on Baltic dry index, Baltic Capesize index and Baltic Panamax index, and the intercorrelations between Capesize and Panamax prices, respectively. First, using the vector autoregressive model, the changes in international crude oil price have a statistically significant positive effect for Capesize at lag 1, for Panamax a significant negative effect at lag 3 and a significant positive effect for Baltic dry index at lag 1. From the impulse response analysis, the international crude oil price causes Baltic dry index to increase in the sort-run and the effect converges on the mean after 3 months. Second, using the vector error correction model, the empirical results for the spillover effects between Capesize and Panamax markets provide that in the case of the deviation from a long-run equilibrium the Panamax price is adjusted toward decreasing. The increases in freight rates of the Capesize market at lag 1 lead to increase the freight rates in Panamax market at present. The Panamax responses from the Capesize shocks increase rapidly for 3 months and the effect converges on the mean after 5 months. The Capesize responses from the Panamax shocks are relatively small, and increase weakly for 3 months and the effect disappears thereafter.

Displacement Measurement of a Floating Structure Model Using a Video Data (동영상을 이용한 부유구조물 모형의 변위 관측)

  • Han, Dong Yeob;Kim, Hyun Woo;Kim, Jae Min
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.159-164
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    • 2013
  • It is well known that a single moving camera video is capable of extracting the 3-dimensional position of an object. With this in mind, current research performed image-based monitoring to establish a floating structure model using a camcorder system. Following this, the present study extracted frame images from digital camcorder video clips and matched the interest points to obtain relative 3D coordinates for both regular and irregular wave conditions. Then, the researchers evaluated the transformation accuracy of the modified SURF-based matching and image-based displacement estimation of the floating structure model in regular wave condition. For the regular wave condition, the wave generator's setting value was 3.0 sec and the cycle of the image-based displacement result was 2.993 sec. Taking into account mechanical error, these values can be considered as very similar. In terms of visual inspection, the researchers observed the shape of a regular wave in the 3-dimensional and 1-dimensional figures through the projection on X Y Z axis. In conclusion, it was possible to calculate the displacement of a floating structure module in near real-time using an average digital camcorder with 30fps video.

Time Series Analysis on the Endogeneity between Quality of Internet Banking System and Business Performances of Banks (인터넷뱅킹시스템의 품질과 은행의 영업성과 간 내생성에 대한 시계열 분석)

  • Shim, Seonyoung
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.169-193
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    • 2013
  • This study investigates time series data on internet banking systems and business performances for 5 large-scale banks : Kookmin, Woori, Hana, City, Shinhan. These banks have the common features that they merged with other banks around 2000, hence they experienced massive IS integration between banks. This study adopted VAR and VECM for identifying Granger causality between the quality of internet banking systems and the performances of banks(operating revenue and cost). The main results are as follows. First, internet banking system impacts positively on the revenues as well as costs of banks. Second, the improvement of internet banking system is instigated by cost part more than revenue part. Hence, the results imply that banks tries to reduce operating costs via internet banking systems, however the systems rather increased the costs of banks, although the systems increased operating revenues of banks too.