• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 신뢰성

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Detection of Phantom Transaction using Data Mining: The Case of Agricultural Product Wholesale Market (데이터마이닝을 이용한 허위거래 예측 모형: 농산물 도매시장 사례)

  • Lee, Seon Ah;Chang, Namsik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2015
  • With the rapid evolution of technology, the size, number, and the type of databases has increased concomitantly, so data mining approaches face many challenging applications from databases. One such application is discovery of fraud patterns from agricultural product wholesale transaction instances. The agricultural product wholesale market in Korea is huge, and vast numbers of transactions have been made every day. The demand for agricultural products continues to grow, and the use of electronic auction systems raises the efficiency of operations of wholesale market. Certainly, the number of unusual transactions is also assumed to be increased in proportion to the trading amount, where an unusual transaction is often the first sign of fraud. However, it is very difficult to identify and detect these transactions and the corresponding fraud occurred in agricultural product wholesale market because the types of fraud are more intelligent than ever before. The fraud can be detected by verifying the overall transaction records manually, but it requires significant amount of human resources, and ultimately is not a practical approach. Frauds also can be revealed by victim's report or complaint. But there are usually no victims in the agricultural product wholesale frauds because they are committed by collusion of an auction company and an intermediary wholesaler. Nevertheless, it is required to monitor transaction records continuously and to make an effort to prevent any fraud, because the fraud not only disturbs the fair trade order of the market but also reduces the credibility of the market rapidly. Applying data mining to such an environment is very useful since it can discover unknown fraud patterns or features from a large volume of transaction data properly. The objective of this research is to empirically investigate the factors necessary to detect fraud transactions in an agricultural product wholesale market by developing a data mining based fraud detection model. One of major frauds is the phantom transaction, which is a colluding transaction by the seller(auction company or forwarder) and buyer(intermediary wholesaler) to commit the fraud transaction. They pretend to fulfill the transaction by recording false data in the online transaction processing system without actually selling products, and the seller receives money from the buyer. This leads to the overstatement of sales performance and illegal money transfers, which reduces the credibility of market. This paper reviews the environment of wholesale market such as types of transactions, roles of participants of the market, and various types and characteristics of frauds, and introduces the whole process of developing the phantom transaction detection model. The process consists of the following 4 modules: (1) Data cleaning and standardization (2) Statistical data analysis such as distribution and correlation analysis, (3) Construction of classification model using decision-tree induction approach, (4) Verification of the model in terms of hit ratio. We collected real data from 6 associations of agricultural producers in metropolitan markets. Final model with a decision-tree induction approach revealed that monthly average trading price of item offered by forwarders is a key variable in detecting the phantom transaction. The verification procedure also confirmed the suitability of the results. However, even though the performance of the results of this research is satisfactory, sensitive issues are still remained for improving classification accuracy and conciseness of rules. One such issue is the robustness of data mining model. Data mining is very much data-oriented, so data mining models tend to be very sensitive to changes of data or situations. Thus, it is evident that this non-robustness of data mining model requires continuous remodeling as data or situation changes. We hope that this paper suggest valuable guideline to organizations and companies that consider introducing or constructing a fraud detection model in the future.

Design of accelerated life test on temperature stress of piezoelectric sensor for monitoring high-level nuclear waste repository (고준위방사성폐기물 처분장 모니터링용 피에조센서의 온도 스트레스에 관한 가속수명시험 설계)

  • Hwang, Hyun-Joong;Park, Changhee;Hong, Chang-Ho;Kim, Jin-Seop;Cho, Gye-Chun
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.451-464
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    • 2022
  • The high-level nuclear waste repository is a deep geological disposal system exposed to complex environmental conditions such as high temperature, radiation, and ground-water due to handling spent nuclear fuel. Continuous exposure can lead to cracking and deterioration of the structure over time. On the other hand, the high-level nuclear waste repository requires an ultra-long life expectancy. Thus long-term structural health monitoring is essential. Various sensors such as an accelerometer, earth pressure gauge, and displacement meter can be used to monitor the health of a structure, and a piezoelectric sensor is generally used. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a highly durable sensor based on the durability assessment of the piezoelectric sensor. This study designed an accelerated life test for durability assessment and life prediction of the piezoelectric sensor. Based on the literature review, the number of accelerated stress levels for a single stress factor, and the number of samples for each level were selected. The failure mode and mechanism of the piezoelectric sensor that can occur in the environmental conditions of the high-level waste repository were analyzed. In addition, two methods were proposed to investigate the maximum harsh condition for the temperature stress factor. The reliable operating limit of the piezoelectric sensor was derived, and a reasonable accelerated stress level was set for the accelerated life test. The suggested methods contain economical and practical ideas and can be widely used in designing accelerated life tests of piezoelectric sensors.

Comparison of Reliability and Validity of Three Korean Versions of the 20-Item Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20의 한국판 3종간의 신뢰도 및 타당도 비교)

  • Chung, Un-Sun;Rim, Hyo-Deog;Lee, Yang-Hyun;Kim, Sang-Heon
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.77-88
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    • 2003
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to compare reliability and validity of three Korean versions of the 20-item Toronto Alexithymia scale and to confirm the most reliable and validated Korean translation of the 20-item Toronto Alexithymia Scale for both clinical and research purpose in Korea. The first one was a Korean version of the 20-Item Toronto Alexithymia Scale developed by Lee YH et al in 1996 which was designated as TAS-20K(1996) in this study. This scale had a problem with one item due to the cultural difference regarding the word 'analyzing' between western culture and Korean culture. The second one was the revised version of TAS-20K(1996) on that point by Lee YH et al in 1996 without validation which was designated as TAS-20K(2003) in this study. The third one was a 23-item Korean version developed by Sin HG and Won HT in 1997, which was somewhat different from the 20-item Toronto Alexithymia Scale(TAS-20) in the number of total item, the content of some items and the scoring method. This scale was designated as S-TAS here. Methods: 408 medical students were tested with one scale composed of all the different items randomly arranged from the three versions. We evaluated goodness-of-fit and Cronbach $\alpha$ coefficients of three scales for reliability. We used confirmatory factor analysis to compare validity. Results: TAS-20K(2003) showed that it had better internal consistency than TAS-20K(1996), which implied that the cultural difference should be considered in the Korean translation. Both TAS-20K(2003) and S-TAS replicated three-factor structures and had adequacy of fit, good internal consistency and acceptable validity. However, S-TAS had one item with poor item-factor correlation and didn't show high correlation between item 2 and factor 1 as before in 1997. Conclusion: Although S-TAS had added 3 items and changed the content of two items, it didn't show better reliability and validity than TAS-20K(2003). Therefore it is proposed to use TAS-20K (2003) as the Korean version of the 20-item Toronto Alexithymia Scale(TAS-20K) for international communication of results of Alexithymia research. It has good internal consistency and validity and maintains original items, the same construct and scoring method as the 20-item Toronto Alexithymia Scale.

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Determinants of IPO Failure Risk and Price Response in Kosdaq (코스닥 상장 시 실패위험 결정요인과 주가반응에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Sung-Bae;Nam, Sam-Hyun;Yi, Hwa-Deuk
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2010
  • Recently, failure rates of Kosdaq IPO firms are increasing and their survival rates tend to be very low, and when these firms do fail, often times backed by a number of governmental financial supports, they may inflict severe financial damage to investors, let alone economy as a whole. To ensure investors' confidence in Kosdaq and foster promising and healthy businesses, it is necessary to precisely assess their intrinsic values and survivability. This study investigates what contributed to the failure of IPO firms and analyzed how these elements are factored into corresponding firms' stock returns. Failure risks are assessed at the time of IPO. This paper considers factors reflecting IPO characteristics, a firm's underwriter prestige, auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds. The study further went on to examine how, if at all, these failure risks involved during IPO led to post-IPO stock prices. Sample firms used in this study include 98 Kosdaq firms that have failed and 569 healthy firms that are classified into the same business categories, and Logit models are used in estimate the probability of failure. Empirical results indicate that auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds shown significant relevance to failure risks at the time of IPO. Of other variables, firm's size and ROA, previously deemed significantly related to failure risks, in fact do not show significant relevance to those risks, whereas financial leverage does. This illustrates the efficacy of a model that appropriately reflects the attributes of IPO firms. Also, even though R&D expenditures were believed to be value relevant by previous studies, this study reveals that R&D is not a significant factor related to failure risks. In examing the relation between failure risks and stock prices, this study finds that failure risks are negatively related to 1 or 2 year size-adjusted abnormal returns after IPO. The results of this study may provide useful knowledge for government regulatory officials in contemplating pertinent policy and for credit analysts in their proper evaluation of a firm's credit standing.

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Evaluation of the Minimum Shear Reinforcement Ratio of Reinforced Concrete Members (철근콘크리트 부재의 최소전단보강근비의 평가)

  • Lee Jung-Yoon;Yoon Sung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.16 no.1 s.79
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    • pp.43-53
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    • 2004
  • The current Korean Concrete Design Code(KCI Code) requires the minimum and maximum content of shear s in order to prevent brittle and noneconomic design. However, the required content of the steel reinforcement In KCI Code is quite different to those of the other design codes such as fib-code, Canadian Code, and Japanese Code. Furthermore, since the evaluation equations of the minimum and maximum shear reinforcement for the current KCI Code were based on the experimental results, the equations can not be used for the RC members beyond the experimental application limits. The concrete tensile strength, shear stress, crack inclination, strain perpendicular to the crack, and shear span ratio are strongly related to the lower and upper limits of shear reinforcement. In this research, an evaluation equation for the minimum content of shear reinforcement is theoretical proposed from the Wavier's three principals of the mechanics of materials.

Fertility Evaluation of Upland Fields by Combination of Landscape and Soil Survey Data with Chemical Properties in Soil (토양 화학성과 지형 및 토양 조사자료를 활용한 밭 토양의 비옥도 평가)

  • Hong, Soon-Dal;Kim, Jai-Joung;Min, Kyong-Beum;Kang, Bo-Goo;Kim, Hyun-Ju
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.221-233
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    • 2000
  • Evaluation method of soil fertility by application of geographic information system (GIS) which includes landscape characteristics and soil map data was investigated from productivities of red pepper and tobacco grown on the fields with no fertilization. Total 131 fields experiments, 64 fields of red pepper and 67 fields of tobacco were conducted from 22 and 23 fields for red pepper and tobacco, respectively, located at Cheangweon and Eumseong counties in 1996, from 20 and 25 fields at Boeun and Goesan counties in 1997, and 22 and 19 fields at Jincheon and Chungju counties in 1998. All the experimental sites were selected on the basis of wide range of distribution in landscape and soil attributes. Dry weights and nutrients (N, P and K) uptakes by red pepper plant and tobacco leaves were considered as basic fertility of the soil (BFS). The BFS was estimated by twenty-five independent variables including 13 chemical properties and 12 GIS data. Twenty-five independent variables were classified by two groups, 15 quantitative variables and 10 qualitative variables, and were analyzed by multiple linear regression (MLR) of REG and GLM models of SAS. Dry weight of red pepper (DWRP) and dry weight of tobacco leaves (DWTL) every year showed high variations by five times in difference plots with minimum yield and maximum yield indicating the diverse soil fertility among the experimental fields. Evaluation for the BFS by the MLR including independent variables was better than that by simple regression showing gradual improvement by adding chemical properties, quantitative variables, and qualitative variables of the GIS. However the evaluation for the BFS by the MLR showed the better result for tobacco than red pepper. For example the variability in the DWTL by MLR was explained 34.2% by only chemical properties, 35.0% by adding quantitative variables, and 72.5% by adding both the quantitative and qualitative variables of the GIS compared with 21.7% by simple regression with $NO_3-N$ content in soil. Consequently, it is assumed that this approach by the MLR including both the quantitative and qualitative variables was available as an evaluation model of soil fertility for upland field.

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Transfer and Validation of NIRS Calibration Models for Evaluating Forage Quality in Italian Ryegrass Silages (이탈리안 라이그라스 사일리지의 품질평가를 위한 근적외선분광 (NIRS) 검량식의 이설 및 검증)

  • Cho, Kyu Chae;Park, Hyung Soo;Lee, Sang Hoon;Choi, Jin Hyeok;Seo, Sung;Choi, Gi Jun
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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    • v.18 no.sup
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2012
  • This study was evaluated high end research grade Near infrared spectrophotometer (NIRS) to low end popular field grade multiple Near infrared spectrophotometer (NIRS) for rapid analysis at forage quality at sight with 241 samples of Italian ryegrass silage during 3 years collected whole country for evaluate accuracy and precision between instruments. Firstly collected and build database high end research grade NIRS using with Unity Scientific Model 2500X (650 nm~2,500 nm) then trim and fit to low end popular field grade NIRS with Unity Scientific Model 1400 (1,400 nm~2,400 nm) then build and create calibration, transfer calibration with special transfer algorithm. The result between instruments was 0.000%~0.343% differences, rapidly analysis for chemical constituents, NDF, ADF, and crude protein, crude ash and fermentation parameter such as moisture, pH and lactic acid, finally forage quality parameter, TDN, DMI, RFV within 5 minutes at sight and the result equivalent with laboratory data. Nevertheless during 3 years collected samples for build calibration was organic samples that make differentiate by local or yearly bases etc. This strongly suggest population evaluation technique needed and constantly update calibration and maintenance calibration to proper handling database accumulation and spread out by knowledgable control laboratory analysis and reflect calibration update such as powerful control center needed for long lasting usage of forage analysis with NIRS at sight. Especially the agriculture products such as forage will continuously changes that made easily find out the changes and update routinely, if not near future NIRS was worthless due to those changes. Many research related NIRS was shortly study not long term study that made not well using NIRS, so the system needed check simple and instantly using with local language supported signal methods Global Distance (GD) and Neighbour Distance (ND) algorithm. Finally the multiple popular field grades instruments should be the same results not only between research grade instruments but also between multiple popular field grade instruments that needed easily transfer calibration and maintenance between instruments via internet networking techniques.

A Study on Improvement of Collaborative Filtering Based on Implicit User Feedback Using RFM Multidimensional Analysis (RFM 다차원 분석 기법을 활용한 암시적 사용자 피드백 기반 협업 필터링 개선 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Seong;Kim, Jaeyoung;Kang, Byeongwook
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.139-161
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    • 2019
  • The utilization of the e-commerce market has become a common life style in today. It has become important part to know where and how to make reasonable purchases of good quality products for customers. This change in purchase psychology tends to make it difficult for customers to make purchasing decisions in vast amounts of information. In this case, the recommendation system has the effect of reducing the cost of information retrieval and improving the satisfaction by analyzing the purchasing behavior of the customer. Amazon and Netflix are considered to be the well-known examples of sales marketing using the recommendation system. In the case of Amazon, 60% of the recommendation is made by purchasing goods, and 35% of the sales increase was achieved. Netflix, on the other hand, found that 75% of movie recommendations were made using services. This personalization technique is considered to be one of the key strategies for one-to-one marketing that can be useful in online markets where salespeople do not exist. Recommendation techniques that are mainly used in recommendation systems today include collaborative filtering and content-based filtering. Furthermore, hybrid techniques and association rules that use these techniques in combination are also being used in various fields. Of these, collaborative filtering recommendation techniques are the most popular today. Collaborative filtering is a method of recommending products preferred by neighbors who have similar preferences or purchasing behavior, based on the assumption that users who have exhibited similar tendencies in purchasing or evaluating products in the past will have a similar tendency to other products. However, most of the existed systems are recommended only within the same category of products such as books and movies. This is because the recommendation system estimates the purchase satisfaction about new item which have never been bought yet using customer's purchase rating points of a similar commodity based on the transaction data. In addition, there is a problem about the reliability of purchase ratings used in the recommendation system. Reliability of customer purchase ratings is causing serious problems. In particular, 'Compensatory Review' refers to the intentional manipulation of a customer purchase rating by a company intervention. In fact, Amazon has been hard-pressed for these "compassionate reviews" since 2016 and has worked hard to reduce false information and increase credibility. The survey showed that the average rating for products with 'Compensated Review' was higher than those without 'Compensation Review'. And it turns out that 'Compensatory Review' is about 12 times less likely to give the lowest rating, and about 4 times less likely to leave a critical opinion. As such, customer purchase ratings are full of various noises. This problem is directly related to the performance of recommendation systems aimed at maximizing profits by attracting highly satisfied customers in most e-commerce transactions. In this study, we propose the possibility of using new indicators that can objectively substitute existing customer 's purchase ratings by using RFM multi-dimensional analysis technique to solve a series of problems. RFM multi-dimensional analysis technique is the most widely used analytical method in customer relationship management marketing(CRM), and is a data analysis method for selecting customers who are likely to purchase goods. As a result of verifying the actual purchase history data using the relevant index, the accuracy was as high as about 55%. This is a result of recommending a total of 4,386 different types of products that have never been bought before, thus the verification result means relatively high accuracy and utilization value. And this study suggests the possibility of general recommendation system that can be applied to various offline product data. If additional data is acquired in the future, the accuracy of the proposed recommendation system can be improved.

Association between Texture Analysis Parameters and Molecular Biologic KRAS Mutation in Non-Mucinous Rectal Cancer (원발성 비점액성 직장암 환자에서 자기공명영상 기반 텍스처 분석 변수와 KRAS 유전자 변이와의 연관성)

  • Sung Jae Jo;Seung Ho Kim;Sang Joon Park;Yedaun Lee;Jung Hee Son
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.82 no.2
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    • pp.406-416
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    • 2021
  • Purpose To evaluate the association between magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based texture parameters and Kirsten rat sarcoma viral oncogene homolog (KRAS) mutation in patients with non-mucinous rectal cancer. Materials and Methods Seventy-nine patients who had pathologically confirmed rectal non-mucinous adenocarcinoma with or without KRAS-mutation and had undergone rectal MRI were divided into a training (n = 46) and validation dataset (n = 33). A texture analysis was performed on the axial T2-weighted images. The association was statistically analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test. To extract an optimal cut-off value for the prediction of KRAS mutation, a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed. The cut-off value was verified using the validation dataset. Results In the training dataset, skewness in the mutant group (n = 22) was significantly higher than in the wild-type group (n = 24) (0.221 ± 0.283; -0.006 ± 0.178, respectively, p = 0.003). The area under the curve of the skewness was 0.757 (95% confidence interval, 0.606 to 0.872) with a maximum accuracy of 71%, a sensitivity of 64%, and a specificity of 78%. None of the other texture parameters were associated with KRAS mutation (p > 0.05). When a cut-off value of 0.078 was applied to the validation dataset, this had an accuracy of 76%, a sensitivity of 86%, and a specificity of 68%. Conclusion Skewness was associated with KRAS mutation in patients with non-mucinous rectal cancer.

Effects of Cyanobacterial Bloom on Zooplankton Community Dynamics in Several Eutrophic Lakes (부영양호수에서 남조류 bloom이 동물플랑크톤 군집변화에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Bom-Chul;Choi, Eun-Mi;Hwang, Soon-Jin;Kim, Ho-Sub
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.33 no.4 s.92
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    • pp.366-373
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    • 2000
  • Toxin production and low digestibility of cyanobacteria are known to cause low exploitability of cyanobacteria by zooplankton. In this study, we compared relative tolerance and compatibility of zooplankton taxa in eight eutrophic lakes, exposed to frequent cyanobacterial blooms, uring the summer season of 1999. Microcystis, Anabaena, Oscillatoria and Phormidium were common cyanobacteria in all lakes. with relatively lower $NO_3-N$ concentration (<0.2 mgN/l) and TN/TP ratio (<20), compared with other lakes where colonial cyanobacteria dominated. Rotifers were dominant zooplankton in most lakes, and among them, Keratella, Polyarthra and Hexathra were common. The laboratory feeding experiment showed that relative copepods that greatly decreased (90%) after 4 day when cyanobacteria were used as the food source of zooplankton, while rotifers gradually increased with the change of dominant taxa from Keratella through Pompholyx to Monostyla. These results suggest that rotifers may be capable of coexisting with cyanobacteria by exploiting them for the food source.

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