• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 모델링

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Relationship Between Standardized Precipitation Index and Groundwater Levels: A Proposal for Establishment of Drought Index Wells (표준강수지수와 지하수위의 상관성 평가 및 가뭄관측정 설치 방안 고찰)

  • Kim Gyoo-Bum;Yun Han-Heum;Kim Dae-Ho
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.31-42
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    • 2006
  • Drought indices, such as PDSI (palmer Drought Severity Index), SWSI (Surface Water Supply Index) and SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index), have been developed to assess and forecast an intensity of drought. To find the applicability of groundwater level data to a drought assessment, a correlation analysis between SPI and groundwater levels was conducted for each time series at a drought season in 2001. The comparative results between SPI and groundwater levels of shallow wells of three national groundwater monitoring stations, Chungju Gageum, Yangpyung Gaegun, and Yeongju Munjeong, show that these two factors are highly correlated. In case of SPI with a duration of 1 month, cross-correlation coefficients between two factors are 0.843 at Chungju Gageum, 0.825 at Yangpyung Gaegun, and 0.737 at Yeongju Munjeong. The time lag between peak values of two factors is nearly zero in case of SPI with a duration of 1 month, which means that groundwater level fluctuation is similar to SPI values. Moreover, in case of SPI with a duration of 3 month, it is found that groundwater level can be a leading indicator to predict the SPI values I week later. Some of the national groundwater monitoring stations can be designated as DIW (Drought Index Well) based on the detailed survey of site characteristics and also new DIWs need to be drilled to assess and forecast the drought in this country.

The Study of Radiation Exposed dose According to 131I Radiation Isotope Therapy (131I 방사성 동위원소 치료에 따른 피폭 선량 연구)

  • Chang, Boseok;Yu, Seung-Man
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.653-659
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to measure the (air dose rate of radiation dose) the discharged patient who was administrated high dose $^{131}I$ treatment, and to predict exposure radiation dose in public person. The dosimetric evaluation was performed according to the distance and angle using three copper rings in 30 patients who were treated with over 200mCi high dose Iodine therapy. The two observer were measured using a GM surverymeter with 8 point azimuth angle and three difference distance 50, 100, 150cm for precise radion dose measurement. We set up three predictive simulations to calculate the exposure dose based on this data. The most highest radiation dose rate was showed measuring angle $0^{\circ}$ at the height of 1m. The each distance average dose rate was used the azimuth angle average value of radiation dose rate. The maximum values of the external radiation dose rate depending on the distance were $214{\pm}16.5$, $59{\pm}9.1$ and $38{\pm}5.8{\mu}Sv/h$ at 50, 100, 150cm, respectively. If high dose Iodine treatment patient moves 5 hours using public transportation, an unspecified person in a side seat at 50cm is exposed 1.14 mSv radiation dose. A person who cares for 4days at a distance of 1 meter from a patient wearing a urine bag receives a maximum radiation dose of 6.5mSv. The maximum dose of radiation that a guardian can receive is 1.08mSv at a distance of 1.5m for 7days. The annual radiation dose limit is exceeded in a short time when applied the our developed radiation dose predictive modeling on the general public person who was around the patients with Iodine therapy. This study can be helpful in suggesting a reasonable guideline of the general public person protection system after discharge of high dose Iodine administered patients.

Improvement of turbid water prediction accuracy using sensor-based monitoring data in Imha Dam reservoir (센서 기반 모니터링 자료를 활용한 임하댐 저수지 탁수 예측 정확도 개선)

  • Kim, Jongmin;Lee, Sang Ung;Kwon, Siyoon;Chung, Se Woong;Kim, Young Do
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.11
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    • pp.931-939
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    • 2022
  • In Korea, about two-thirds of the precipitation is concentrated in the summer season, so the problem of turbidity in the summer flood season varies from year to year. Concentrated rainfall due to abnormal rainfall and extreme weather is on the rise. The inflow of turbidity caused a sudden increase in turbidity in the water, causing a problem of turbidity in the dam reservoir. In particular, in Korea, where rivers and dam reservoirs are used for most of the annual average water consumption, if turbidity problems are prolonged, social and environmental problems such as agriculture, industry, and aquatic ecosystems in downstream areas will occur. In order to cope with such turbidity prediction, research on turbidity modeling is being actively conducted. Flow rate, water temperature, and SS data are required to model turbid water. To this end, the national measurement network measures turbidity by measuring SS in rivers and dam reservoirs, but there is a limitation in that the data resolution is low due to insufficient facilities. However, there is an unmeasured period depending on each dam and weather conditions. As a sensor for measuring turbidity, there are Optical Backscatter Sensor (OBS) and YSI, and a sensor for measuring SS uses equipment such as Laser In-Situ Scattering and Transmissometry (LISST). However, in the case of such a high-tech sensor, there is a limit due to the stability of the equipment. Therefore, there is an unmeasured period through analysis based on the acquired flow rate, water temperature, SS, and turbidity data, so it is necessary to develop a relational expression to calculate the SS used for the input data. In this study, the AEM3D model used in the Water Resources Corporation SURIAN system was used to improve the accuracy of prediction of turbidity through the turbidity-SS relationship developed based on the measurement data near the dam outlet.

Review of the Weather Hazard Research: Focused on Typhoon, Heavy Rain, Drought, Heat Wave, Cold Surge, Heavy Snow, and Strong Gust (위험기상 분야의 지난 연구를 뒤돌아보며: 태풍, 집중호우, 가뭄, 폭염, 한파, 강설, 강풍을 중심으로)

  • Chang-Hoi Ho;Byung-Gon Kim;Baek-Min Kim;Doo-Sun R. Park;Chang-Kyun Park;Seok-Woo Son;Jee-Hoon Jeong;Dong-Hyun Cha
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.223-246
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    • 2023
  • This paper summarized the research papers on weather extremes that occurred in the Republic of Korea, which were published in the domestic and foreign journals during 1963~2022. Weather extreme is defined as a weather phenomenon that causes serious casualty and property loss; here, it includes typhoon, heavy rain, drought, heat wave, cold surge, heavy snow, and strong gust. Based on the 2011~2020 statistics in Korea, above 80% of property loss due to all natural disasters were caused by typhoons and heavy rainfalls. However, the impact of the other weather extremes can be underestimated rather than we have actually experienced; the property loss caused by the other extremes is hard to be quantitatively counted. Particularly, as global warming becomes serious, the influence of drought and heat wave has been increasing. The damages caused by cold surges, heavy snow, and strong gust occurred over relatively local areas on short-term time scales compared to other weather hazards. In particularly, strong gust accompanied with drought may result in severe forest fires over mountainous regions. We hope that the present review paper may remind us of the importance of weather extremes that directly affect our lives.

Fate Analysis and Impact Assessment for Vehicle Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) Emitted from Metropolitan City Using Multimedia Fugacity Model (다매체거동모델을 이용한 대도시 자동차 배출 Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) 거동 해석 및 영향평가)

  • Rhee, Gahee;Hwangbo, Soonho;Yoo, ChangKyoo
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.479-495
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    • 2018
  • This study was carried out to research the multimedia fate modeling, concentration distribution and impact assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) emitted from automobiles, which are known as carcinogenic and mutation chemicals. The amount of emissions of PAHs was determined based on the census data of automobiles at a target S-city and emission factors of PAHs, where multimedia fugacity modeling was conducted by the restriction of PAHs transfer between air-soil at the impervious area. PAHs' Concentrations and their distributions at several environmental media were predicted by multimedia fugacity model (level III). The residual amounts and the distributions of PAHs through mass transfer of PAHs between environment media were used to assess the health risk of PAHs at unsteady state (level IV), where the sensitivity analyses of the model parameter of each variable were conducted based on Monte Carlo simulation. The experimental result at S-city showed that Fluoranthene among PAHs substances are the highest residual concentrations (60%, 53%, 32% and 34%) at all mediums (atmospheric, water, soil, sediment), respectively, where most of the PAHs were highly accumulated in the sediment media (more than 80%). A result of PAHs concentration changes in S-city over the past 34 years identified that PAHs emissions from all environmental media increased from 1983 to 2005 and decreased until 2016, where the emission of heavy-duty vehicle including truck revealed the largest contribution to the automotive emissions of PAHs at all environment media. The PAHs concentrations in soil and water for the last 34 years showed the less value than the legal standards of PAHs, but the PAHs in air exceeded the air quality standards from 1996 to 2016. The result of this study is expected to contribute the effective management and monitoring of toxic chemicals of PAHs at various environment media of Metropolitan city.

Geochemical Characteristics of Soil Solution from the Soil Near Mine Tailing Dumps and the Contamination Assessment in Duckum Mine (토양수의 자구화학특성에 따른 금속폐광산 광미야적장주변 토양오염평가: 덕음광산)

  • 이상훈;정주연
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2004
  • The soil samples were collected from the paddy field near the mine tailing dumps in the abandoned Duckum mine in Korea. In the laboratory, the soil solution was extracted from the soil using centrifuge, and analysed for the chemical composition. Physical and chemical soil properties were also analysed. Kaolinite is the main clay minerals in the paddy soil and the CEC value is therefore relatively low. Nearly all soil samples show enrichment in their trace elemental concentrations(Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn) compared with natural background level. Some soil samples exceed the soil remediation intervention values for Cd, Pb and Zn and target value for Cu, when compared with Dutch standard, whereas As, Ni and Cr are in normal range. Lead concentrations in some samples near the mine tailing dumps also exceed the standard for remediation act for agricultural area set by Korean soil conservation law. The trace elemental concentrations are higher in the paddy soil nearer the mine tailing dumps and lower for the samples from distance. Similar trend with distance is found for the soil solution chemistry but the decrease with distance from the mine tailing dumps are sharper than the changes in soil chemistry. Cadmium, Cu and Pb concentrations in the soil solution are very low, ranging from a tenth and hundredths to a maximum of several mg/l, whereas their concentrations in soils are highly enriched for natural background. Most of the trace elements are thought to be either removed by reduced iron sulphides or iron oxides, depending on the redox changes. Geochemical equilibrium modelling indicate the presence of solubility controlling solid phases for Cd and Pb, whereas Zn and Cu might have been controlled by adsorption/desorption processes. Although pollutants migration through solution phase are thought to be limited by adsorption onto various Fe, Mn solid phases, the pollutants exist as easily releasable fractions such as exchangeable site. In this case, the paddy soil would act as pollutant pool, which will supply to plants in situ. whenever the geochemical conditions favour.

Modeling of Sensorineural Hearing Loss for the Evaluation of Digital Hearing Aid Algorithms (디지털 보청기 알고리즘 평가를 위한 감음신경성 난청의 모델링)

  • 김동욱;박영철
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 1998
  • Digital hearing aids offer many advantages over conventional analog hearing aids. With the advent of high speed digital signal processing chips, new digital techniques have been introduced to digital hearing aids. In addition, the evaluation of new ideas in hearing aids is necessarily accompanied by intensive subject-based clinical tests which requires much time and cost. In this paper, we present an objective method to evaluate and predict the performance of hearing aid systems without the help of such subject-based tests. In the hearing impairment simulation(HIS) algorithm, a sensorineural hearing impairment medel is established from auditory test data of the impaired subject being simulated. Also, the nonlinear behavior of the loudness recruitment is defined using hearing loss functions generated from the measurements. To transform the natural input sound into the impaired one, a frequency sampling filter is designed. The filter is continuously refreshed with the level-dependent frequency response function provided by the impairment model. To assess the performance, the HIS algorithm was implemented in real-time using a floating-point DSP. Signals processed with the real-time system were presented to normal subjects and their auditory data modified by the system was measured. The sensorineural hearing impairment was simulated and tested. The threshold of hearing and the speech discrimination tests exhibited the efficiency of the system in its use for the hearing impairment simulation. Using the HIS system we evaluated three typical hearing aid algorithms.

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Numerical Hydrodynamic Modeling Incorporating the Flow through Permeable Sea-Wall (투수성 호안의 해수유통을 고려한 유동 수치모델링)

  • Bang, Ki-Young;Park, Sung Jin;Kim, Sun Ou;Cho, Chang Woo;Kim, Tae In;Song, Yong Sik;Woo, Seung-Buhm
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.63-75
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    • 2013
  • The Inner Port Phase 2 area of the Pyeongtaek-Dangjin Port is enclosed by a total of three permeable sea-walls, and the disposal site to the east of the Inner Port Phase 2 is also enclosed by two permeable sea-walls. The maximum tidal range measured in the Inner Port Phase 2 and in the disposal site in May 2010 is 4.70 and 2.32 m, respectively. It reaches up to 54 and 27%, respectively of 8.74 m measured simultaneously in the exterior. Regression formulas between the difference of hydraulic head and the rate of interior water volume change, are induced. A three-dimensional numerical hydrodynamic model for the Asan Bay is constructed incorporating a module to compute water discharge through the permeable sea-walls at each computation time step by employing the formulas. Hydrodynamics for the period from 13th to 27th May, 2010 is simulated by driving forces of real-time reconstructed tide with major five constituents($M_2$, $S_2$, $K_1$, $O_1$ and $N_2$) and freshwater discharges from Asan, Sapkyo, Namyang and Seokmoon Sea dikes. The skill scores of modeled mean high waters, mean sea levels and mean low waters are excellent to be 96 to 100% in the interior of permeable sea-walls. Compared with the results of simulation to obstruct the flow through the permeable sea-walls, the maximum current speed increases by 0.05 to 0.10 m/s along the main channel and by 0.1 to 0.2 m/s locally in the exterior of the Outer Sea-wall of Inner Port. The maximum bottom shear stress is also intensified by 0.1 to 0.4 $N/m^2$ in the main channel and by more than 0.4 $N/m^2$ locally around the arched Outer Sea-wall. The module developed to compute the flow through impermeable seawalls can be practically applied to simulate and predict the advection and dispersion of materials, the erosion or deposion of sediments, and the local scouring around coastal structures where large-scale permeable sea-walls are maintained.

Comparative Study on the Estimation of CO2 absorption Equilibrium in Methanol using PC-SAFT equation of state and Two-model approach. (메탄올의 이산화탄소 흡수평형 추산에 대한 PC-SAFT모델식과 Two-model approach 모델식의 비교연구)

  • Noh, Jaehyun;Park, Hoey Kyung;Kim, Dongsun;Cho, Jungho
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.136-152
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    • 2017
  • The thermodynamic models, PC-SAFT (Perturbed-Chain Statistical Associated Fluid Theory) state equation and the Two-model approach liquid activity coefficient model NRTL (Non Random Two Liquid) + Henry + Peng-Robinson, for modeling the Rectisol process using methanol aqueous solution as the $CO_2$ removal solvent were compared. In addition, to determine the new binary interaction parameters of the PC-SAFT state equations and the Henry's constant of the two-model approach, absorption equilibrium experiments between carbon dioxide and methanol at 273.25K and 262.35K were carried out and regression analysis was performed. The accuracy of the newly determined parameters was verified through the regression results of the experimental data. These model equations and validated parameters were used to model the carbon dioxide removal process. In the case of using the two-model approach, the methanol solvent flow rate required to remove 99.00% of $CO_2$ was estimated to be approximately 43.72% higher, the cooling water consumption in the distillation tower was 39.22% higher, and the steam consumption was 43.09% higher than that using PC-SAFT EOS. In conclusion, the Rectisol process operating under high pressure was designed to be larger than that using the PC-SAFT state equation when modeled using the liquid activity coefficient model equation with Henry's relation. For this reason, if the quantity of low-solubility gas components dissolved in a liquid at a constant temperature is proportional to the partial pressure of the gas phase, the carbon dioxide with high solubility in methanol does not predict the absorption characteristics between methanol and carbon dioxide.

A Geochemical Indicator in Exploration for the Kalaymyo Chromitite Deposit, Myanmar (미얀마 깔레이미요 크롬철석광상 탐사의 지구화학적 인자)

  • Park, Jung-Woo;Park, Gyuseung;Heo, Chul-Ho;Kim, Jihyuk
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.50 no.6
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    • pp.423-433
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    • 2017
  • Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources and Department of Geological Survey and Mineral Exploration in Myanmar have explored the Kalaymyo chromitite deposit, Myanmar since 2013. It is now necessary to find a geochemical indicator for efficient mineral exploration in the future and building a 3D geological model for this ore deposit. Mantle podiform chromitite is a major type of Cr ore in this region, which is considered to be formed by mantle-melt interaction beneath the mantle-crust boundary of oceanic lithosphere. In this study we measured major element composition of spinels in harzburgite, dunite and chromitite, and examined the hypothesis that spinel Cr#(molar Cr/(Cr+Al)${\times}$100) can be used as a geochemical indicator in exploration for the Kalaymyo chromitite. The results show that there is a clear correlation between spinel Cr# and distribution of chromitite. The spinel Cr# of harzburgite increases with decreasing the distance from the chromitite bodies. The spinel composition is also closely associated with texture and occurrence of spinels. The high Cr# spinels (30-48) are subhedral to euhedral and enclosed by olivine whereas the low Cr# spinels (16-27) are anhedral and commonly associated with pyroxenes. Often the low Cr# spinels show symplectite intergrowths with pyroxenes, indicating their residual nature. These petrological and geochemical results suggest that the high Cr# spinels have resulted from mantle-melt interaction. We suggest that spinel Cr# can be used as a geochemical indicator for Cr ore exploration and as one of critical factors in 3D geological model in the Kalaymyo chromitite deposit.