• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 모델링

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Distribution Prediction of Korean Clawed Salamander (Onychodactylus koreanus) according to the Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 한국꼬리치레도롱뇽(Onychodactylus koreanus)의 분포 예측에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Su-Yeon;Choi, Seo-yun;Bae, Yang-Seop;Suh, Jae-Hwa;Jang, Hoan-Jin;Do, Min-Seock
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.480-489
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    • 2021
  • Climate change poses great threats to wildlife populations by decreasing their number and destroying their habitats, jeopardizing biodiversity conservation. Asiatic salamander (Hynobiidae) species are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to their small home range and limited dispersal ability. Thus, this study used one salamander species, the Korean clawed salamander (Onychodactylus koreanus), as a model species and examined their habitat characteristics and current distribution in South Korea to predict its spatial distribution under climate change. As a result, we found that altitude was the most important environmental factor for their spatial distribution and that they showed a dense distribution in high-altitude forest regions such as Gangwon and Gyeongsanbuk provinces. The spatial distribution range and habitat characteristics predicted in the species distribution models were sufficiently in accordance with previous studies on the species. By modeling their distribution changes under two different climate change scenarios, we predicted that the distribution range of the Korean clawed salamander population would decrease by 62.96% under the RCP4.5 scenario and by 98.52% under the RCP8.5 scenario, indicating a sharp reduction due to climate change. The model's AUC value was the highest in the present (0.837), followed by RCP4.5 (0.832) and RCP8.5 (0.807). Our study provides a basic reference for implementing conservation plans for amphibians under climate change. Additional research using various analysis techniques reflecting habitat characteristics and minute habitat factors for the whole life cycle of Korean-tailed salamanders help identify major environmental factors that affect species reduction.

MDP(Markov Decision Process) Model for Prediction of Survivor Behavior based on Topographic Information (지형정보 기반 조난자 행동예측을 위한 마코프 의사결정과정 모형)

  • Jinho Son;Suhwan Kim
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.101-114
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    • 2023
  • In the wartime, aircraft carrying out a mission to strike the enemy deep in the depth are exposed to the risk of being shoot down. As a key combat force in mordern warfare, it takes a lot of time, effot and national budget to train military flight personnel who operate high-tech weapon systems. Therefore, this study studied the path problem of predicting the route of emergency escape from enemy territory to the target point to avoid obstacles, and through this, the possibility of safe recovery of emergency escape military flight personnel was increased. based problem, transforming the problem into a TSP, VRP, and Dijkstra algorithm, and approaching it with an optimization technique. However, if this problem is approached in a network problem, it is difficult to reflect the dynamic factors and uncertainties of the battlefield environment that military flight personnel in distress will face. So, MDP suitable for modeling dynamic environments was applied and studied. In addition, GIS was used to obtain topographic information data, and in the process of designing the reward structure of MDP, topographic information was reflected in more detail so that the model could be more realistic than previous studies. In this study, value iteration algorithms and deterministic methods were used to derive a path that allows the military flight personnel in distress to move to the shortest distance while making the most of the topographical advantages. In addition, it was intended to add the reality of the model by adding actual topographic information and obstacles that the military flight personnel in distress can meet in the process of escape and escape. Through this, it was possible to predict through which route the military flight personnel would escape and escape in the actual situation. The model presented in this study can be applied to various operational situations through redesign of the reward structure. In actual situations, decision support based on scientific techniques that reflect various factors in predicting the escape route of the military flight personnel in distress and conducting combat search and rescue operations will be possible.

Animal Infectious Diseases Prevention through Big Data and Deep Learning (빅데이터와 딥러닝을 활용한 동물 감염병 확산 차단)

  • Kim, Sung Hyun;Choi, Joon Ki;Kim, Jae Seok;Jang, Ah Reum;Lee, Jae Ho;Cha, Kyung Jin;Lee, Sang Won
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.137-154
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    • 2018
  • Animal infectious diseases, such as avian influenza and foot and mouth disease, occur almost every year and cause huge economic and social damage to the country. In order to prevent this, the anti-quarantine authorities have tried various human and material endeavors, but the infectious diseases have continued to occur. Avian influenza is known to be developed in 1878 and it rose as a national issue due to its high lethality. Food and mouth disease is considered as most critical animal infectious disease internationally. In a nation where this disease has not been spread, food and mouth disease is recognized as economic disease or political disease because it restricts international trade by making it complex to import processed and non-processed live stock, and also quarantine is costly. In a society where whole nation is connected by zone of life, there is no way to prevent the spread of infectious disease fully. Hence, there is a need to be aware of occurrence of the disease and to take action before it is distributed. Epidemiological investigation on definite diagnosis target is implemented and measures are taken to prevent the spread of disease according to the investigation results, simultaneously with the confirmation of both human infectious disease and animal infectious disease. The foundation of epidemiological investigation is figuring out to where one has been, and whom he or she has met. In a data perspective, this can be defined as an action taken to predict the cause of disease outbreak, outbreak location, and future infection, by collecting and analyzing geographic data and relation data. Recently, an attempt has been made to develop a prediction model of infectious disease by using Big Data and deep learning technology, but there is no active research on model building studies and case reports. KT and the Ministry of Science and ICT have been carrying out big data projects since 2014 as part of national R &D projects to analyze and predict the route of livestock related vehicles. To prevent animal infectious diseases, the researchers first developed a prediction model based on a regression analysis using vehicle movement data. After that, more accurate prediction model was constructed using machine learning algorithms such as Logistic Regression, Lasso, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. In particular, the prediction model for 2017 added the risk of diffusion to the facilities, and the performance of the model was improved by considering the hyper-parameters of the modeling in various ways. Confusion Matrix and ROC Curve show that the model constructed in 2017 is superior to the machine learning model. The difference between the2016 model and the 2017 model is that visiting information on facilities such as feed factory and slaughter house, and information on bird livestock, which was limited to chicken and duck but now expanded to goose and quail, has been used for analysis in the later model. In addition, an explanation of the results was added to help the authorities in making decisions and to establish a basis for persuading stakeholders in 2017. This study reports an animal infectious disease prevention system which is constructed on the basis of hazardous vehicle movement, farm and environment Big Data. The significance of this study is that it describes the evolution process of the prediction model using Big Data which is used in the field and the model is expected to be more complete if the form of viruses is put into consideration. This will contribute to data utilization and analysis model development in related field. In addition, we expect that the system constructed in this study will provide more preventive and effective prevention.

Estimation of irrigation return flow from paddy fields on agricultural watersheds (농업유역의 논 관개 회귀수량 추정)

  • Kim, Ha-Young;Nam, Won-Ho;Mun, Young-Sik;An, Hyun-Uk;Kim, Jonggun;Shin, Yongchul;Do, Jong-Won;Lee, Kwang-Ya
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2022
  • Irrigation water supplied to the paddy field is consumed in the amount of evapotranspiration, underground infiltration, and natural and artificial drainage from the paddy field. Irrigation return flow is defined as the excess of irrigation water that is not consumed by evapotranspiration and crop, and which returns to an aquifer by infiltration or drainage. The research on estimating the return flow play an important part in water circulation management of agricultural watershed. However, the return flow rate calculations are needs because the result of calculating return flow is different depending on irrigation channel water loss, analysis methods, and local characteristics. In this study, the irrigation return flow rate of agricultural watershed was estimated using the monitoring and SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) modeling from 2017 to 2020 for the Heungeop reservoir located in Wonju, Gangwon-do. SWMM modeling was performed by weather data and observation data, water of supply and drainage were estimated as the result of SWMM model analysis. The applicability of the SWMM model was verified using RMSE and R-square values. The result of analysis from 2017 to 2020, the average annual quick return flow rate was 53.1%. Based on these results, the analysis of water circulation characteristics can perform, it can be provided as basic data for integrated water management.

An Exploration of MIS Quarterly Research Trends: Applying Topic Modeling and Keyword Network Analysis (MIS Quarterly 연구동향 탐색: 토픽모델링 및 키워드 네트워크 분석 활용)

  • Kang, Eunkyung;Jung, Yeonsik;Yang, Seonuk;Kwon, Jiyoon;Yang, Sung-Byung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.207-235
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    • 2022
  • In a knowledge-based society where knowledge and information industries are the main pillars of the economy, knowledge sharing and diffusion and its systematic management are recognized as essential strategies for improving national competitiveness and sustainable social development. In the field of Information Systems (IS) research, where the convergence of information technology and management takes place in various ways, the evolution of knowledge occurs only when researchers cooperate in turning old knowledge into new knowledge from the perspective of the scientific knowledge network. In particular, it is possible to derive new insights by identifying topics of interest in the relevant research field, applied methodologies, and research trends through network-based interdisciplinary graftings such as citations, co-authorships, and keywords. In previous studies, various attempts have been made to understand the structure of the knowledge system and the research trends of the relevant community by revealing the relationship between research topics, methodologies, and co-authors. However, most studies have compared two or more journals and been limited to a certain period; hence, there is a lack of research that looked at research trends covering the entire history of IS research. Therefore, this study was conducted in the following order for all the papers (from its first issue in 1977 to the first quarter of 2022) published in the MIS Quarterly (MISQ) Journal, which plays a leading role in revealing knowledge in the IS research field: (1) After extracting keywords, (2) classifying the extracted keywords into research topics, methodologies, and theories, and (3) using topic modeling and keyword network analysis in order to identify the changes from the beginning to the present of the IS research in a chronological manner. Through this study, it is expected that by examining the changes in IS research published in MISQ, the developing patterns of IS research can be revealed, and a new research direction can be presented to IS researchers, nurturing the sustainability of future research.

Analysis on Dynamics of Korea Startup Ecosystems Based on Topic Modeling (토픽 모델링을 활용한 한국의 창업생태계 트렌드 변화 분석)

  • Heeyoung Son;Myungjong Lee;Youngjo Byun
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.315-338
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    • 2022
  • In 1986, Korea established legal systems to support small and medium-sized start-ups, which becomes the main pillars of national development. The legal systems have stimulated start-up ecosystems to have more than 1 million new start-up companies founded every year during the past 30 years. To analyze the trend of Korea's start-up ecosystem, in this study, we collected 1.18 million news articles from 1991 to 2020. Then, we extracted news articles that have the keywords "start-up", "venture", and "start-up". We employed network analysis and topic modeling to analyze collected news articles. Our analysis can contribute to analyzing the government policy direction shown in the history of start-up support policy. Specifically, our analysis identifies the dynamic characteristics of government influenced by external environmental factors (e.g., society, economy, and culture). The results of our analysis suggest that the start-up ecosystems in Korea have changed and developed mainly by the government policies for corporation governance, industrial development planning, deregulation, and economic prosperity plan. Our frequency keyword analysis contributes to understanding entrepreneurial productivity attributed to activities among the networked components in industrial ecosystems. Our analyses and results provide practitioners and researchers with practical and academic implications that can help to establish dedicated support policies through forecast tasks of the economic environment surrounding the start-ups. Korean entrepreneurial productivity has been empowered by growing numbers of large companies in the mobile phone industry. The spectrum of large companies incorporates content startups, platform providers, online shopping malls, and youth-oriented start-ups. In addition, economic situational factors contribute to the growth of Korean entrepreneurial productivity the economic, which are related to the global expansions of the mobile industry, and government efforts to foster start-ups. Our research is methodologically implicative. We employ natural language processes for 30 years of media articles, which enables more rigorous analysis compared to the existing studies which only observe changes in government and policy based on a qualitative manner.

Estimation of Economic Losses on the Agricultural Sector in Gangwon Province, Korea, Based on the Baekdusan Volcanic Ash Damage Scenario (백두산 화산재 피해 시나리오에 따른 강원도 지역 농작물의 경제적 피해 추정)

  • Lee, Yun-Jung;Kim, Su-Do;Chun, Joonseok;Woo, Gyun
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.515-523
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    • 2013
  • The eastern coast of South Korea is expected to be damaged by volcanic ash when Mt. Baekdusan volcano erupts. Even if the amount of volcanic ash is small, it can be fatal on the agricultural sector withering many plants and causing soil acidification. Thus, in this paper, we aim to estimate agricultural losses caused by the volcanic ash and to visualize them with Google map. To estimate the volcanic ash losses, a damage assessment model is needed. As the volcanic ash hazard depends on the kind of a crops and the ash thickness, the fragility function of damage assessment model should represent the relation between ash thickness and damage rate of crops. Thus, we model the fragility function using the damage rate for each crop of RiskScape. The volcanic ash losses can be calculated with the agricultural output and the price of each crop using the fragility function. This paper also represents the estimated result of the losses in Gangwon province, which is most likely to get damaged by volcanic ashes in Korea. According to the result with gross agricultural output of Gangwon province in 2010, the amount of volcanic ash losses runs nearly 635,124 million wons in Korean currency if volcanic ash is accumulated over four millimeters. This amount represents about 50% of the gross agricultural output of Gangwon province. We consider the damage only for the crops in this paper. However, a volcanic ash fall has the potential to damage the assets for a farm, including the soil fertility and installations. Thus, to estimate the total amount of volcanic ash damage for the whole agricultural sectors, these collateral damages should also be considered.

Process Design of Carbon Dioxide Storage in the Marine Geological Structure: I. Comparative Analysis of Thermodynamic Equations of State using Numerical Calculation (이산화탄소 해양지중저장 처리를 위한 공정 설계: I. 수치계산을 통한 열역학 상태방정식의 비교 분석)

  • Huh, Cheol;Kang, Seong-Gil
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.181-190
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    • 2008
  • To response climate change and Kyoto protocol and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, marine geological storage of $CO_2$ is regarded as one of the most promising option. Marine geological storage of $CO_2$ is to capture $CO_2$ from major point sources(eg. power plant), to transport to the storage sites and to store $CO_2$ into the marine geological structure such as deep sea saline aquifer. To design a reliable $CO_2$ marine geological storage system, it is necessary to perform numerical process simulation using thermodynamic equation of state. The purpose of this paper is to compare and analyse the relevant equations of state including ideal, BWRS, PR, PRBM and SRK equation of state. To evaluate the predictive accuracy of the equation of the state, we compared numerical calculation results with reference experimental data. Ideal and SRK equation of state did not predict the density behavior above $29.85^{\circ}C$, 60 bar. Especially, they showed maximum 100% error in supercritical state. BWRS equation of state did not predict the density behavior between $60{\sim}80\;bar$ and near critical temperature. On the other hand, PR and PRBM equation of state showed good predictive capability in supercritical state. Since the thermodynamic conditions of $CO_2$ reservoir sites correspond to supercritical state(above $31.1^{\circ}C$ and 73.9 bar), we conclude that it is recommended to use PR and PRBM equation of state in designing of $CO_2$ marine geological storage process.

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Estimation and assessment of baseflow at an ungauged watershed according to landuse change (토지이용변화에 따른 미계측 유역의 기저유출량 산정 및 평가)

  • Lee, Ji Min;Shin, Yongchun;Park, Youn Shik;Kum, Donghyuk;Lim, Kyoung Jae;Lee, Seung Oh;Kim, Hungsoo;Jung, Younghun
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.303-318
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    • 2014
  • Baseflow gives a significant contribution to stream function in the regions where climatic characteristics are seasonally distinct. In this regard, variable baseflow can make it difficult to maintain a stable water supply, as well as causing disruption to the stream ecosystem. Changes in land use can affect both the direct flow and baseflow of a stream, and consequently, most other components of the hydrologic cycle. Baseflow estimation depends on the observed streamflow in gauge watersheds, but accurate predictions of streamflow through modeling can be useful in determining baseflow data for ungauged watersheds. Accordingly, the objectives of this study are to 1) improve predictions of SWAT by applying the alpha factor estimated using RECESS for calibration; 2) estimate baseflow in an ungauged watershed using the WHAT system; and 3) evaluate the effects of changes in land use on baseflow characteristics. These objectives were implemented in the Gapcheon watershed, as an ungauged watershed in South Korea. The results show that the alpha factor estimated using RECESS in SWAT calibration improves the prediction for streamflow, and, in particular, recessions in the baseflow. Also, the changes in land use in the Gapcheon watershed leads to no significant difference in annual baseflow between comparable periods, regardless of precipitation, but does lead to differences in the seasonal characteristics observed for the temporal distribution of baseflow. Therefore, the Guem River, into which the stream from the Gapcheon watershed flows, requires strategic seasonal variability predictions of baseflow due to changes in land use within the region.

Strategies about Optimal Measurement Matrix of Environment Factors Inside Plastic Greenhouse (플라스틱온실 내부 환경 인자 다중센서 설치 위치 최적화 전략)

  • Lee, JungKyu;Kang, DongHyun;Oh, SangHoon;Lee, DongHoon
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.161-170
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    • 2020
  • There is systematic spatial variations in environmental properties due to sensitive reaction to external conditions at plastic greenhouse occupied 99.2% of domestic agricultural facilities. In order to construct 3 dimensional distribution of temperature, relative humidity, CO2 and illuminance, measurement matrix as 3 by 3 by 5 in direction of width, height and length, respectively, dividing indoor space of greenhouse was designed and tested at experimental site. Linear regression analysis was conducted to evaluate optimal estimation method in terms with horizontal and vertical variations. Even though sole measurement point for temperature and relative humidity could be feasible to assess indoor condition, multiple measurement matrix is inevitably required to improve spatial precision at certain time domain such as period of sunrise and sunset. In case with CO2, multiple measurement matrix could not successfully improve the spatial predictability during a whole experimental period. In case with illuminance, prediction performance was getting smaller after a time period of sunrise due to systematic interference such as indoor structure. Thus, multiple sensing methodology was proposed in direction of length at higher height than growing bed, which could compensate estimation error in spatial domain. Appropriate measurement matrix could be constructed considering the transition of stability in indoor environmental properties due to external variations. As a result, optimal measurement matrix should be carefully designed considering flexibility of construction relevant with the type of property, indoor structure, the purpose of crop and the period of growth. For an instance, partial cooling and heating system to save a consumption of energy supplement could be successfully accomplished by the deployment of multiple measurement matrix.