• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 기법

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The Fatigue Life Evaluation of Aged Continuous Welded Rail on the Urban Railway (도시철도 장기 사용레일의 피로수명 평가)

  • Kong, Sun-Young;Sung, Deok-Yong;Park, Yong-Gul
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.821-831
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    • 2013
  • As a result of recent research, it is reported that the periodic replacements criterion of rails is able to extend as grinding rail surface and using the continuous welded rail (CWR). In this study, we carried out fatigue tests on existing laid rails. Based on the test results, an S-N curve expressing the remaining life of laid rails at a fracture probability of 50% was obtained using weighted probit analysis suitable for small-sample fatigue data sets. As rails used for testing had different histories in terms of accumulated tonnage, the test data were corrected to average out the accumulated tonnage. We estimated the remaining service lives for laid rails on the urban railway using equations developed in the past to estimate rail base bending stress and that surface irregularities into consideration. Therefore, estimating the remaining service life of laid rails showed that the rail replacement period could be extended over 200 MGT, although it is necessary to remove longitudinal rail surface irregularities at welds by grinding. Also, the fatigue test results under fatigue limit, Haibach's rule appling half slope of S-N curve under the fatigue limit was considered more reasonable than modified Miner's rule for estimating rail fatigue life.

Development of Stand-Alone Risk Assessment Software for Optimized Maintenance Planning of Power Plant Facilities (발전설비 최적 정비를 위한 독립형 위험도 평가 소프트웨어 개발)

  • Choi, Woo Sung;Song, Gee Wook;Kim, Bum Shin;Chang, Sung Ho;Lee, Sang Min
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.39 no.11
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    • pp.1169-1174
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    • 2015
  • Risk-Risk-based inspection (RBI) has been developed in order to identify risky equipments that can cause major accidents or damages in large-scale plants. This assessment evaluates the equipment's risk, categorizes their priorities based on risk level, and then determines the urgency of their maintenance or allocates maintenance resources. An earlier version of the risk-based assessment software is already installed within the equipment management system; however, the assessment is based on examination by an inspector, and the results can be influenced by his subjective judgment, rather than assessment being based on failure probability. Moreover, the system is housed within a server, which limits the inspector's work space and time, and such a system can be used only on site. In this paper, the development of independent risk-based assessment software is introduced; this software calculates the failure probability by an analytical method, and analyzes the field inspection results, as well as inspection effectiveness. It can also operate on site, since it can be installed on an independent platform, and has the ability to generate an I/O function for the field inspection results regarding the period for an optimum maintenance cycle. This program will provide useful information not only to the field users who are participating in maintenance, but also to the engineers who need to decide whether to extend the lifecycle of the power machinery or replace only specific components.

Buckling Analysis of Composite Cylindrical Shell Using Numerical Analysis Method (수치해석적 기법을 이용한 복합재 원통 셸의 좌굴 연구)

  • Jung, Hae-Young;Cho, Jong-Rae;Bae, Won-Byung;Lee, Woo-Hyung
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 2012
  • The objective of this paper is to predict the buckling pressure of a composite cylindrical shell using buckling formulas (ASME 2007, NASA SP 8007) and finite element analysis. The model in this study uses a stacking angle of [0/90]12t and USN 125 composite material. All specimens were made using a prepreg method. First, finite element analysis was conducted, and the results were verified through comparison with the hydrostatic pressure buckling experiment results. Second, the values obtained from the buckling formula and the buckling pressure values obtained from the finite element analysis were compared as the stacking angle was changed in $5^{\circ}$ increments from $20^{\circ}$ to $90^{\circ}$. The linear and nonlinear results of the finite element analysis were consistent with the results of the experiment, with a safety factor of 0.85-1. Based on the above result, the ASME 2007 formula, a simplified version of the NASA SP-8007 formula, is regarded as a buckling formula that provides a reliable safety factor.

Object-oriented Simulation Modeling for Service Supply Chain (서비스 공급사슬을 위한 객체지향 시뮬레이션 모델링)

  • Moon, Jong-Hyuk;Lee, Young-Hae;Cho, Dong-Won
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.55-68
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    • 2012
  • Recently it is important to understand service supply chain because the economy moves from manufacturing to services. However, most of existing supply chain research focuses exclusively on the manufacturing sector. To overcome this situation, it needs to investigate and analyze service supply chain. Simulation is one of the most frequently used techniques for analysis and design of complex system. Service supply chain is complex and large systems that require an accurate designing phase. Especially, it is important to examine closely the dynamically interactive behavior of the different service supply chain components in order to predict the performance of the servcie supply chain. In this paper, we develop a conceptual model of service supply chain. Then, we present a new procedure to develop simulation model for the developed conceptual model of service supply chain, based on the UML analysis and design tools and on the ARENA simulation language. The two main characteristics of the proposed procedure are the definition of a systematic procedure to design service supply chain and of a set of rules for the conceptual model translation in an ARENA simulation language. The goal is to improve the knowledge on service supply chain management and support the simulation model development efficiency on service supply chain.

Performance Enhancement of Virtual War Field Simulator for Future Autonomous Unmanned System (미래 자율무인체계를 위한 가상 전장 환경 시뮬레이터 성능 개선)

  • Lee, Jun Pyo;Kim, Sang Hee;Park, Jin-Yang
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.109-119
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    • 2013
  • An unmanned ground vehicle(UGV) today plays a significant role in both civilian and military areas. Predominantly these systems are used to replace humans in hazardous situations. To take unmanned ground vehicles systems to the next level and increase their capabilities and the range of missions they are able to perform in the combat field, new technologies are needed in the area of command and control. For this reason, we present war field simulator based on information fusion technology to efficiently control UGV. In this paper, we present the war field simulator which is made of critical components, that is, simulation controller, virtual image viewer, and remote control device to efficiently control UGV in the future combat fields. In our information fusion technology, improved methods of target detection, recognition, and location are proposed. In addition, time reduction method of target detection is also proposed. In the consequence of the operation test, we expect that our war field simulator based on information fusion technology plays an important role in the future military operation significantly.

Quantitative Analysis of Port Incentive Effect: Focusing on Busan Port (항만인센티브제도의 효과에 대한 정량적 분석: 부산항을 중심으로)

  • Ha, Myung-Sin;Kim, Chul-Min;Chang, Byoung-Ky
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.355-372
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    • 2011
  • Various incentive policies for transshipment cargo have been enforced without any evaluation of the effectiveness. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of volume incentive on container transshipment cargo. To be different from previous studies, this study tries to quantitatively assess the incentive effects by using econometric techniques. The result derived from the ARIMA type models indicates that the total amount of the increased transshipment cargo during the last 7 years is about one million TEU. In the meanwhile, the multivariate long run equilibrium model implies that the increased transshipment cargo is less than 0.5 million TEU for the 7 years. Furthermore, the structural break tests indicate that the volume incentive does not change the model structures. It means that the effect of volume incentive is not statistically significant. Consequently, the test results conclude the effect of volume incentive on transshipment cargo is not significant although the volume of transshipment cargo is increased to some extent by volume incentive. Considering the magnitude of BPA's expenditure, we doubt the effectiveness of volume incentive. This study, therefore, encourages the port authority to research a more efficient way to induce transshipment cargo rather than focusing on only volume incentives.

Fatigue Life Evaluation for Used Rail on Track Types (궤도형식별 사용레일의 피로수명 평가)

  • Kang, Sung Won;Lim, Hyung-Jun;Park, Yong-Gul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.649-657
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    • 2017
  • In this study, fatigue testing was carried out for long-term use of rail according to track type. From S-N curves for 50%~0.01% failure probability, the fatigue life of the long-term use rail for each track type was derived using the weight probability analysis technique on the experimental data. Because the rails used in the fatigue test have different cumulative tonnages, the number of repetitions was modified by averaging the cumulative tonnage. In addition, the bending stresses of rail bottoms, considering rail surface irregularities, track support stiffnesses and train speeds, were evaluated using the predicted rail bending stresses derived from existing studies. As a result, for rail fatigue life evaluation, the fatigue life of rail on the ballast track was found to be more than 200 million tons higher than the standard value for rail replacement. Also, the fatigue life of rail on concrete track is more than 300 million tons higher than that on ballast track. The Haibach rule is adaptable for the fatigue life evaluation of rail for stress range under fatigue limit.

Low Complexity Video Encoding Using Turbo Decoding Error Concealments for Sensor Network Application (센서네트워크상의 응용을 위한 터보 복호화 오류정정 기법을 이용한 경량화 비디오 부호화 방법)

  • Ko, Bong-Hyuck;Shim, Hyuk-Jae;Jeon, Byeung-Woo
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.11-21
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    • 2008
  • In conventional video coding, the complexity of encoder is much higher than that of decoder. However, as more needs arises for extremely simple encoder in environments having constrained energy such as sensor network, much investigation has been carried out for eliminating motion prediction/compensation claiming most complexity and energy in encoder. The Wyner-Ziv coding, one of the representative schemes for the problem, reconstructs video at decoder by correcting noise on side information using channel coding technique such as turbo code. Since the encoder generates only parity bits without performing any type of processes extracting correlation information between frames, it has an extremely simple structure. However, turbo decoding errors occur in noisy side information. When there are high-motion or occlusion between frames, more turbo decoding errors appear in reconstructed frame and look like Salt & Pepper noise. This severely deteriorates subjective video quality even though such noise rarely occurs. In this paper, we propose a computationally extremely light encoder based on symbol-level Wyner-Ziv coding technique and a new corresponding decoder which, based on a decision whether a pixel has error or not, applies median filter selectively in order to minimize loss of texture detail from filtering. The proposed method claims extremely low encoder complexity and shows improvements both in subjective quality and PSNR. Our experiments have verified average PSNR gain of up to 0.8dB.

Nonnegative Matrix Factorization Based Direction-of-Arrival Estimation of Multiple Sound Sources Using Dual Microphone Array (이중 마이크로폰을 이용한 비음수 행렬분해 기반 다중음원 도래각 예측)

  • Jeon, Kwang Myung;Kim, Hong Kook;Yu, Seung Woo
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.123-129
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    • 2017
  • This paper proposes a new nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) based direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation method for multiple sound sources using a dual microphone array. First of all, sound signals coming from the dual microphone array are segmented into consecutive analysis frames, and a steered-response power phase transform (SRP-PHAT) beamformer is applied to each frame so that stereo signals of each frame are represented in a time-direction domain. The time-direction outputs of SRP-PHAT are stored for a pre-defined number of frames, which is referred to as a time-direction block. Next, In order to estimate DOAs robust to noise, each time-direction block is normalized along the time by using a block subtraction technique. After that, an unsupervised NMF method is applied to the normalized time-direction block in order to cluster the directions of each sound source in a multiple sound source environments. In particular, the activation and basis matrices are used to estimate the number of sound sources and their DOAs, respectively. The DOA estimation performance of the proposed method is evaluated by measuring a mean absolute error (MAE) and the standard deviation of errors between the oracle and estimated DOAs under a three source condition, where the sources are located in [$-35{\circ}$, 5m], [$12{\circ}$, 4m], and [$38{\circ}$, 4.m] from the dual microphone array. It is shown from the experiment that the proposed method could relatively reduce MAE by 56.83%, compared to a conventional SRP-PHAT based DOA estimation method.

A Study on the Thermo-Mechanical Fatigue Loading for Time Reduction in Fabricating an Artificial Cracked Specimen (열-기계적 피로하중을 받는 균열시편 제작시간 단축에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Gyu-Beom;Choi, Joo-Ho;An, Dae-Hwan;Lee, Bo-Young
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2008
  • In the nuclear power plant, early detection of fatigue crack by non-destructive test (NDT) equipment due to the thermal cyclic load is very important in terms of strict safety regulation. To this end, many efforts are exerted to the fabrication of artificial cracked specimen for practicing engineers in the NDT company. The crack of this kind, however, cannot be made by conventional machining, but should be made under thermal cyclic load that is close to the in-situ condition, which takes tremendous time due to the repetition. In this study, thermal loading condition is investigated to minimize the time for fabricating the cracked specimen using simulation technique which predicts the crack initiation and propagation behavior. Simulation and experiment are conducted under an initial assumed condition for validation purpose. A number of simulations are conducted next under a variety of heating and cooling conditions, from which the best solution to achieve minimum time for crack with wanted size is found. In the simulation, general purpose software ANSYS is used for the stress analysis, MATLAB is used to compute crack initiation life, and ZENCRACK, which is special purpose software for crack growth prediction, is used to compute crack propagation life. As a result of the study, the time for the crack to reach the size of 1mm is predicted from the 418 hours at the initial condition to the 319 hours at the optimum condition, which is about 24% reduction.