• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.14 no.4 s.41
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• pp.443-450
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• 2004

This study developed a prediction model of debris flow to predict a landslide probability on natural terrain composed of the Tertiary sedimentary and volcanic rocks using a logistic regression analysis. The landslides data were collected around Pohang, Gyeongbuk province where more than 100 landslides were occurred in 1998. Considered with basic characteristics of the logistic regression analysis, field survey and laboratory soil tests were performed for both slided points and not-slided points. The final iufluential factors on landslides were selected as six factors by the logistic regression analysis. The six factors are composed of two topographic factors and four geologic factors. The developed landslide prediction model has more than $90\%$ of prediction accuracy. Therefore, it is possible to make probabilistic and quantitative prediction of landslide occurrence using the developed model in this study area as well as the previously developed model for metamorphic and granitic rocks.

• Food Science of Animal Resources
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.115-121
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• 2011

The objective of this study was to develop models to predict freshness factors (total viable counts (TVC), pH, volatile basic nitrogen (VBN), trimethylamine (TMA), and thiobarbituric acid (TBA) values) and the storage period in beef using a visible and near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopic technique. A total of 216 beef spectra were collected during the storage period from 0 to 14 d at a $10^{\circ}C$ storage. A spectrophotometer was used to measure reflectance spectra from beef samples, and beef freshness spectra were divided into a calibration set and a validation set. Multi-linear regression (MLR) models using the stepwise method were developed to predict the factors. The MLR results showed that beef freshness had a good correlation between the predicted and measured factors using the selected wavelength. The correlation of determination ($r^2$), standard error of prediction (SEP), and ratio of standard deviation to SEP (RPD) of the prediction set for TVC was 0.74, 0.64, and 2.75 Log CFU/$cm^2$, respectively. The $r^2$, SEP, and RPD values for pH were 0.43, 0.10, and 1.10; those for VBN were 0.73, 1.45, and 2.00 mg%; those for TMA were 0.70, 0.19, and 2.58 mg%; those for TBA values were 0.73, 0.13, and 2.77 mg MA/kg; and those for storage period were 0.77, 1.94, and 2.53 d, respectively. The results indicate that visible and NIR spectroscopy can predict beef freshness during storage.

• Journal of The Korean Ophthalmological Society
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• v.59 no.11
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• pp.1062-1070
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• 2018

Purpose: We evaluated the prognostic factors of open globe injuries in children and adolescents, and compared the ocular trauma score (OTS) and pediatric penetrating ocular trauma score (POTS). Methods: We performed a retrospective review of 77 children under 18 years of age who visited our clinic with open globe injuries between May 1993 and April 2014. We investigated the factors that may affect final visual acuity. We also compared the OTS and POTS using receiver operating characteristic curves as a method to predict final visual acuity. Results: By univariate analysis, an initial visual acuity less than 20/200, globe rupture, wound size greater than 7.0 mm, retinal detachment, lens dislocation, and total number of operations contributed to worse visual outcomes (<20/200). Conversely, central corneal involvement, traumatic cataract, wound size less than 7.0 mm, and initial visual acuity greater than 20/200 were better prognostic indicators (${\geq}20/32$). Both OTS and POTS had diagnostic value as a predictor of final visual acuity, although there were no statistically significant differences between the two scoring systems. Conclusions: Initial visual acuity and wound size are important prognostic factors for the final visual acuity in children and adolescent, following open globe injuries. Both OTS and POTS are reliable prognostic models for open globe injuries in children and adolescents.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.347-362
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• 2019

Underground excavation using TBM machines has been increasing to reduce complaints caused by noise, vibration, and traffic congestion resulted from the urban underground construction in Korea. However, TBM excavation design and construction still need improvement because those are based on standards of the technologically advanced countries (e.g., Japan, Germany) that do not consider geological environment in Korea at all. Above all, although TBM performance is a main factor determining the TBM machine type, duration and cost of the construction, it is estimated by only using UCS (uniaxial compressive strength) as the ground parameters and it often does not match the actual field conditions. This study was carried out as part of efforts to predict penetration rate suitable for Korean ground conditions. The effective parameters were defined through the correlation analysis between the penetration rate and the geotechnical parameters or TBM performance parameters. The effective parameters were then used as variables of the multiple regression analysis to derive a regression model for predicting TBM penetration rate. As a result, the regression model was estimated by UCS and joint spacing and showed a good agreement with field penetration rate measured during TBM excavation. However, when this model was applied to another site in Korea, the prediction accuracy was slightly reduced. Therefore, in order to overcome the limitation of the regression model, further studies are required to obtain a generalized prediction model which is not restricted by the field conditions.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.279-279
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• 2017

토양유실로 인해 발생된 토사는 강우 유출수와 함께 하류로 흘러들어 하천 및 호소의 탁수문제를 야기시킨다. 토양유실에 관한 현황을 파악하기 위해서는 유역 내 토지이용현황과 피복되어 있는 작물 등의 현황조사와 더불어 유역 내 발생되는 토양유실량에 대한 장기모니터링을 수행할 필요가 있다. 하지만 유역 내 발생되는 토양유실량에 대한 장기모니터링을 수행하기에는 많은 시간과 인력이 필요하므로 토양유실량 산정 및 유사거동특성을 계산하는 모형을 활용한 연구가 국내외 많은 연구자들에 의해 수행되고 있다. 토양유실량을 산정하는 모형 중 가장 많이 사용되고 있는 범용토양유실량산정공식(Universal Soil Loss Equation, USLE)은 5개의 인자를 사용하여 연평균 토양유실량을 산정한다. 국내의 경우 환경부에서 제정한 '표토의 침식 현황 조사에 관한 고시'에 표토침식현황을 조사하는 방법으로 USLE 공식을 사용한다. USLE 모형을 구성하는 인자 중 식생피복인자는 작물의 생육과정에 따른 변화를 고려하지 않고 작물에 대한 획일적인 값을 제시하고 있어 밭에서 발생되는 정확한 토양유실현황을 예측하는데 한계가 있다, 따라서 본 연구에서는 국내에서 사용하는 USLE 모형의 구성인자인 식생피복인자의 한계점을 인식하고 이를 유역별 월단위 인자값으로 산정하는 방법을 제시하기 위해 국내의 4대상 유역 중 대청호 유역, 소양호 유역, 주암호 유역, 임하호 유역을 선정하여 각 유역의 기후 및 지역특성을 고려한 식생피복인자를 제안하였다. 월단위 식생피복인자를 제안하기 위해 SWAT모형을 사용하여 일단위 식생피복인자를 출력하도록 모형을 구성하였으며, 구축된 인자의 지역적 한계를 보완하기 위해 4대강 유역에 대한 작물 재배일정을 조사하여 모형에 반영하여 모의하였다. 모의 결과 산정된 월단위 식생피복 인자는 모든 작물에 대해 작물이 파종되는 시점에서 수확되기까지 점차 감소하는 경향을 보였으며, 작물에 따라서 그리고 동일한 작물일지라도 유역에 따라 다소 차이가 있는 것으로 확인되었다. 따라서 본 연구를 통해 제안된 월단위 식생피복인자는 토양유실에 직접적인 영향을 주는 지표피복변화를 고려한 식생피복인자로써 정확한 토양유실량을 산정하는데 기여할 것으로 판단된다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.153-153
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• 2015

최근 지구온난화와 같은 기후변화로 인한 기상이변으로 홍수, 태풍 등이 빈번히 발생하면서 지면서 그로 인한 피해도 점점 증가하고 있으며, 이러한 기상 이변으로 인한 피해를 최소화 하기 위하여 기후변화가 수문량에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 그 중, 기후변화로 인한 강수현상의 변화를 분석하기 위한 방법 중 하나로 강수 현상이 주변 기후 요소의 분포에 영향을 받으며, 이를 바탕으로 강수현상에 영향을 미치는 기상인자를 통하여 강수를 분석하는 방법이 있다. 동으로는 태평양을 마주한 아시아 대륙 끝에 위치한 우리나라의 지형적 특성상, 강수 현상에 있어 대륙과 해양의 영향을 모두 받은 위치에 있다. 따라서 우리나라의 강수현상에 영향을 미치는 기상인자를 분석할 경우 대륙에서의 기상변화를 반영한 기상인자와 더불어 태평양에서의 기상변화를 반영한 모든 기상인자를 적용할 필요가 있다고 판단되어 본 연구를 수행하였다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 자료기간이 30년 이상인 주요 지점의 강수량 자료를 바탕으로 Empirical Mode Decomposition(EMD)을 이용하여 과거의 기후변화에 따른 강수량 변동성과 경향성에 대하여 분석하고, 이를 다양한 기상인자와의 지연상관관계를 분석함으로써, 기후변화에 따른 우리나라 강수량의 변동이 어느 요소에 민감한지를 판단해 보고, 상관관계가 높은 지연개월 수를 판단하여기상인자를 통한 강수량의 예측 가능성을 제시 하고자 한다.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.391-404
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• 2021

This study developed a long-term prediction model for the potential yield of garlic based on a genetic algorithm (GA) by utilizing global climate reanalysis data. The GA is used for digging the inherent signals from global climate reanalysis data which are both directly and indirectly connected with the garlic yield potential. Our results indicate that both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts reasonably capture the inter-annual variability of crop yields with temporal correlation coefficients significant at 99% confidence level and superior categorical forecast skill with a hit rate of 93.3% for 2 × 2 and 73.3% for 3 × 3 contingency tables. Furthermore, the GA method, which considers linear and non-linear relationships between predictors and predictands, shows superiority of forecast skill in terms of both stability and skill scores compared with linear method. Since our result can predict the potential yield before the start of farming, it is expected to help establish a long-term plan to stabilize the demand and price of agricultural products and prepare countermeasures for possible problems in advance.

• Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.51-59
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• 2015

Purpose: Predicting life expectancy of terminally ill cancer patients is very important. In many studies, ferritin is detected at higher levels in the sera of cancer patients, and higher ferritin level correlates with aggressiveness of disease and poor outcomes of patients. This study evaluated a prognostic role of serum ferritin levels in terminally ill cancer patients. Methods: This study enrolled 65 terminally ill cancer patients from March through June 2012. We assessed routine laboratory findings including serum ferritin levels as well as demographic and clinical characteristics of the patients. To examine the association between serum ferritin levels and patient's characteristics, we used Spearman's correlation analysis, Wilcoxon's rank sum test or Kruskal-Wallis test, as appropriately. For multivariate analysis, Cox's proportional hazard regression model was used to evaluate significance of serum ferritin levels as a prognostic factor. Results: A negative correlation between serum ferritin levels and survival time was found. After adjusting for sex, age, performance status, creatinine levels and white blood cell counts, serum ferritin levels were significantly associated with survival time. Conclusion: Even at the very end of life of terminal cancer patients, serum ferritin levels were an independent prognostic factor for survival.

• Composites Research
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.71-76
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• 2017

The purpose of this study was to predict the long-term performance using the interlaminar shear strength of carbon fiber/epoxy composites exposed to environmental factors. Interlaminar shear specimens, manufactured by the filament winding method, were exposed to the conditions of drying at $50^{\circ}C$, $70^{\circ}C$, and $100^{\circ}C$ and of immersion at $25^{\circ}C$, $50^{\circ}C$, and $70^{\circ}C$ for up to 3000 hours, respectively. According to the results, the interlaminar shear strength did not vary significantly with the exposure time for the drying at $50^{\circ}C$ and $70^{\circ}C$, but it increased somewhat for the drying at $100^{\circ}C$ due to the post curing as the exposure time increased. The interlaminar shear strength of the specimens exposed to the immersion at $25^{\circ}C$ did not change significantly at the beginning of exposure, but it decreased with the exposure time and the degree of decrease increased as the environmental temperature increased. The linear regression equations for the environmental temperatures were obtained from the interlaminar shear strength of the specimens exposed to the immersion for up to 3000 hours. Using these linear regression equations, the interlaminar shear strength was estimated to be within 5.5% of the measured value at $25^{\circ}C$ and $50^{\circ}C$, and 2.3% of the measured value at $70^{\circ}C$. Therefore, the proposed performance prediction procedures can predict well the long-term interlaminar shear strength of carbon fiber/epoxy composites exposed to environmental factors.

• Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.217-226
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• 2016

Objectives : To investigate changes in, and predictors of, metabolic syndrome(MetS) status over a 5-year period in chronic schizophrenic patients and to identify factors associated with the prevention of or recovery from MetS. Methods : In total, 107 patients, all of whom provided written informed consent, were followed from 2011 to 2016 at Naju National Hospital for this study. MetS was defined according to the revised National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines. Results : During follow-up period, 22(20.5%) patients were newly diagnosed to MetS, 14(13.1%) were disappeared, 77(66.4%) were not changed[MetS : 34(31.8%), No MetS 37(34.6%)]. Common significant factors in the two changed groups were triglyceride and waist circumference, not dose and type of antipsychotic medication. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that female gender(odds ratio[OR]=2.846, 95% confidence interval[CI] : 1.020-7.942), attending two or more outpatient visits per month(OR=3.155, 95% CI : 1.188-8.379) and taking antidepressant medication(OR=3.991, 95% CI : 1.048-15.205) were significantly associated with MetS after controlling for other confounding variables. Type and dose of antipsychotic medication were not significantly associated with MetS. Conclusions : Triglyceride and waist circumference were important manageable indicator of MetS. Adoption of a healthy lifestyle is more important than adjusting the dose or type of antipsychotic medication in the treatment of chronic schizophrenia patients with MetS.