• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측계산식

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Evaluation of Meteorological Elements Used for Reference Evapotranspiration Calculation of FAO Penman-Monteith Model (FAO Penman-Monteith 모형의 증발산량 산정에 이용되는 기상요소의 평가)

  • Hur, Seung-Oh;Jung, Kang-Ho;Ha, Sang-Keun;Kim, Jeong-Gyu
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.274-279
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    • 2006
  • The exact estimation of crop evapotranspiration containing reference or potential evapotranspiration is necessary for decision of crop water requirements. This study was carried out for the evaluation and application of various meteorological elements used for the calculation of reference evapotranspiration (RET) by FAO Penman-Monteith (PM) model. Meteorological elements including temperature, net radiation, soil heat flux, albedo, relative humidity, wind speed measured by meteorological instruments are required for RET calculation by FAO PM model. The average of albedo measured for crop growing period was 0.20, ranging from 0.12 to 0.23, and was slightly lower than 0.23. Determinant coefficients by measured albedo and green grass albedo were 0.97, 0.95 and standard errors were 0.74, 0.80 respectively. Usefulness of deductive regression models was admitted. To assess an influence of soil heat flux (G) on FAO PM, RET with G=0 was compared with RETs using G at 5cm soil depth ($G_{5cm}$) and G at surface ($G_{0cm}$). As the results, RET estimated by G=0 was well agreed with RET calculated by measured G. Therefore, estimated net radiation, G=0 and albedo of green grass could be used for RET calculation by FAO PM.

Improvement and Applications of the Turbidity Flow Predictive Model in Extreme Rainfall Event (극한 사상의 탁수 예측 모델 개선 및 적용)

  • Park, Hyung Seok;Chung, Se Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.435-435
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    • 2016
  • 기후변화에 따라 강우 패턴이 변화하며, 집중호우 발생 빈도의 증가가 예상된다. 이로 인해 저수지 상류에서 유실된 토사는 저수지로 유입하여 정수 처리비용 증가, 1차생산성 감소, 어류폐사, 하천경관 악화 등 다양한 문제를 유발한다. 따라서 위와 같은 탁수 피해 저감을 위해 과학적인 모니터링과 예측, 저수지 운영과 관리기술 개발 등의 대응이 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 극한 탁수사상 발생시 대응 기술의 일환으로 저수지 탁수예측 모델의 신뢰도 향상을 위해, 기존 탁수예측 모형인 CE-QUAL-W2(이하 W2)의 탁수 예측 알고리즘을 개선하고 소양강댐 저수지에 적용하여 그 성능을 평가하였다. 최근 W2모델 3.72 버전까지 출시되었으나, 모델은 단순 침강속도만 고려하여 저수지 밀도 특성을 반영하지 못하고, TSS 모의시 독립침강을 가정하여 응집 침강 및 장기탁수 예측에 취약한 한계점을 가지고 있다. 따라서, 과거 연구내용을 바탕으로 수온에 따른 점성계수 변화(Stoke's), 다중 부유 입자별 침강속도 고려 기능을 추가하였으며, 새롭게 점착성유사의 응집 침강을 고려할 수 있는 기능을 추가하여 모델을 개선하였다. 모델에 점착성 유사 모의 전략은 입자 크기 $63{\mu}m$를 기준으로 비점착성유사(NCS)와 점착성유사(CS)로 구분하고, 비점착성유사는 독립침강, 점착성 유사는 응집침강을 가정하였다. 응집 후 중간 입경의 추정은 Gailani et al(1991)의 식을 사용하였으며, 침강속도 계산 공식은 Hwang and Mehta(1989)식을 적용하였다. 수정된 모델은 소양강댐 운영이후 최대 탁수사상이 발생했던 2006년을 대상으로 기존 탁수해석 결과와 수정된 모델의 모의결과를 실측값과 비교 분석 하였다. Stoke's 식 적용시 기존의 모의결과 대비 AME 평균 23%, RMSE 평균 18%가 개선되는 것으로 나타났으며, Hwang and Metha식 적용시에 SS 모의값이 전반적으로 과소평가되는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 실측 방류 탁수 농도와 모의값을 비교하여 평가 하였으며, 모의기간인 Julian Day 173~365(192일) 동안 모의 결과의 총 TSS 부하량은 실측값의 약 80%수준을 보였으며, TSS 방류 부하기준 Stoke's 식 적용시 기존 모의대비 오차가 1.3% 개선되는 것으로 나타났다.

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수치계산을 통한 증기폭발 전파과정 해석

  • 박인규;박준철;방광현
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 1995.05a
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    • pp.531-537
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    • 1995
  • 본 논문에서는 증기폭발의 전파과정을 해석하기 위한 수학적 모델을 제시하였다. 이 모델은 용융물, 용융파편, 그리고 냉각재 기상과 액상 둥 4상 유체의 2차원적인 천이거동을 지배방정식 및 관련상관식의 수치적 해를 구함으로써 증기폭발의 전파속도 및 폭발압력 등을 예측할 수 있다. 모델에 사용된 주요 상관식은 용융물 분쇄, 냉각재 상변화, 에너지 교환, 그리고 운동량 교환함으로 구성되어 있다. 냉각재의 상태를 결정하는데 있어서 냉각재의 기상과 액상 사이의 열역학적인 비평형을 허용할 수 있도록 냉각재의 상태방정식을 구성하였다. 주석/물의 증기폭발에 대한 예제계산을 수행한 결과 폭발의 전파속도 및 압력 등에 있어서 합당한 것으로 밝혀졌다. 또한 중요한 초기변수(중기 분율, 용융물 분율) 및 관련상관식에 대한 민감도 분석을 수행함으로써 모델개선을 위한 중요인자를 제시하였다.

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Study on Relationship Between Spatial-Perceptual Ability and Driving-Related Situation Awareness (공간지각 능력에 따른 운전-관련 상황의 재인 및 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Bia Kim ;Jaesik Lee
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.83-95
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of the present study was to investigate the relationship between spatial-erceptual ability and several aspects of driving-related situation awareness(in particular, recognition and prediction). Video clips of real driving were used in both recognition and prediction tasks, and the digit calculation task during driving the simulator was required as the integration task of recognition and prediction. The results showed that the subjects of higher spatial-perceptual ability performed better in recognition task, especially in terms of sensitivity measured in d'(as signal detection theory), prediction task, and digits calculation performance than those of lower spatial-perceptual ability.

Prediction of Tcv for Coal Slags under Reducing Condition (환원 조건에서 석탄 슬래그의 Tcv 예측)

  • Park, Yoonkyung;Oh, Myungsook
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.623-630
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    • 2006
  • The slag viscosity is an important factor determining the operation temperature of entrained flow type of gasifiers. The temperature of critical viscosity, $T_{cv}$, for 5 crystalline slags was predicted by empirical models and FactSage equilibrium calculations, and the validity of each method was tested. Two empirical models were employed: one using $T_h$ from the ash fusion test, and the other using the concentrations of 5 major components. The first model using $T_h$ over-predicted $T_{cv}$ by $20{\sim}100^{\circ}C$, while the model based on the slag composition under-predicted $T_{cv}$ by $80{\sim}120^{\circ}C$. In the equlibrium calculations, $T_{cv}$ was obtained from the liquidus temperature. When the 4-major component concentrations were used in the calculation, the predicted temperatures were higher than the observed. The liquidus temperature was very sensitive to the concentrations of minor components, and the addition of MgO and $Na_2O$ lowered the liquidus temperature. The results with 4 major and 3 minor components most closely described experimentally observed $T_{cv}$. In the case that a chromia refractory was used, it was shown that $Cr_2O_3$ concentration in the slag also needs to be included for more accurate prediction of $T_{cv}$.

Settlement Predictions for Pile Foundations (말뚝기초의 침하예측)

  • 윤길림
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.137-154
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    • 1997
  • Piling engineers in limit state design should consider both capacity of a pile and settlements of pile for stability of a structure. This paper analyzes the prediction of the settlements of single piles and nine-group piles installed at an overconsolidated clay site by common prediction methods and cone penetrometer test data obtained closely at pile locations. The effects of Young's modulus, which varies spatially in soil profile, on estimating the set tlements of piles have been investigated briefly. The predicted settlements for single piles and nine-pile group by using simple linear elan tic methods, Vesic's method and Poulos's method, overestimated overalls the measured valroes, and the assumption of Youngs modulus, which are to be varied linearly through the soil layers. did not significantly affect the settlement predictions.

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Simple Empirical Attenuation Relationship for Potential Nuclear Power Plant Sites (원자력발전소의 단순화 된 실증적 지진감쇄 관계)

  • Tanwa, Kankang;Eric, Yee
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.34 no.9
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    • pp.43-49
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    • 2018
  • Seismic hazard assessments are performed on a variety of infrastructure projects. One component of a seismic hazard assessment is the attenuation relationship. Several attenuation relationships have been developed over the decades to predict peak ground acceleration under a variety of site conditions. For example, many attenuation relationships were designed to estimate peak ground acceleration, as well as other intensity measures, under a variety of soil conditions, mostly using the average shear wave velocity for the upper 30 m of earth material as a classification scheme. However, certain types of infrastructure, such as tunnels and nuclear power plants, are typically founded on and in bedrock. Using data from Japan, we developed a simple correlation to estimate peak ground acceleration for rock sites and compare the results from another popular attenuation relationship. Results indicate the popular attenuation relationship to be less than the proposed model for distances less than 200 km.

Development of Permanent Displacement Model for Seismic Mountain Slope (지진 시 산사면의 영구변위 추정식 개발)

  • Lee, Jong-Hoo;Park, Duhee;Ahn, Jae-Kwang;Park, Inn-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 2015
  • Empirical seismic displacement equations based on the Newmark sliding block method are widely used to develop seismic landslide hazard map. Most proposed equations have been developed for embankments and landfills, and do not consider the dynamic response of sliding block. Therefore, they cannot be applied to Korean mountain slopes composed of thin, uniform soil-layer underlain by an inclined bedrock parallel to the slope. In this paper, a series of two-dimensional dynamic nonlinear finite difference analyses were performed to estimate the permanent seismic slope displacement. The seismic displacement of mountain slopes was calculated using the Newmark method and the equivalent acceleration time history. The calculated seismic displacements of the mountain slopes were compared to a widely used empirical displacement model. We show that the displacement prediction is significantly enhanced if the slope is modeled as a flexible sliding mass and the amplification characteristics are accounted for. Regression equation, which uses PGA, PGV, Arias intensity of the ground motion and the fundamental period of soil layer, is shown to provide a reliable estimate of the sliding displacement. Furthermore, the empirical equation is shown to reliably predict the hazard category.

A Study on the Prediction of Flashover Time and Heat Release Rate(HRR) for Building Interior Materials (건축 내장재의 Flashover시간 및 열방출량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • 하동명
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.30-38
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    • 2004
  • An important characteristics during fire growth is the phenomena of flashover, which is the transition from the local combustion to the full-room fire. The aim of this study is to predict the flashover times, the ignition times and HRR(heat release rate) of flashover for building interior materials. By using the literature data and RSM(response surface methodology), the new equations for predicting the flashover time, the ignition time and the HRR of building interior materials are proposed. The A.A.P.E.(average absolute percent error) and the A.A.D.(average absolute deviation) of the reported and the calculated flashover times were 38.74sec and 51.24sec respectively, and the correlation coefficient was 0.975. The A.A.P.E and the A.A.D of the reported and the calculated ignition times were 10.96sec and 1.97sec, and the correlation coefficient was 0.962. Also the A.A.P.E and the A.A.D. of the reported and the calculated the HRR of flashover by means of times were 29.92 and 514, and the correlation coefficient was 0.830. The values calculated by the proposed equations were in good agreement with the literature data. Therefore, it is expected that this proposed equations will support the use of the research for other building interior materials.

Prediction Method and Characteristics of Micro-pressure Wave on High-speed Railway Tunnel (고속선 터널미기압파 특성 및 예측기법 연구)

  • Yun, Su-Hwan;Nam, Seong-Won;Kim, Seok-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.8-14
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    • 2015
  • This paper describes a prediction method for micro-pressure wave emitted from a tunnel on the Kyung-bu high-speed railway. Pressure and micro-pressure wave were measured simultaneously to obtain some constants for the prediction method. The change of a micro-pressure wave were analyzed according to the speed of the train, the track bed type, and the distance from a tunnel portal. At a train speed of 300km/h, the micro-pressure wave of 4.0km long ballast track tunnel is about 7.5Pa; that of 3.3km long slab track tunnel is about 14.3Pa The strength of the micro-pressure wave decreases in inverse proportion to the distance and becomes about 0.5~1.0Pa at a point of 100m from the tunnel exit. Micro-pressure waves were predicted using the formula with the obtained the constants. Using a comparison between the predicted data and field measurement data, it was confirmed that micro-pressure wave can be predicted easily through the prediction formula.