• Title/Summary/Keyword: 여론 조사

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Standardizing and Visualizing Descriptive Summaries of Election Survey Data (선거 여론조사 자료의 표준적 요약과 시각화)

  • Huh, Myung-Hoe;Lee, Yong-Goo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.845-854
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    • 2008
  • Survey reports of election opinions consist of numerous cross-tabulations between socio-demographic variables and political opinions including preferred candidates. Since socio-demographic variables are related each other, duplicate interpretations arise. The aim of this study is twofold: The first is to separate the effects of socio variables such as education, occupation and income from the effects of demographic variables such as region, sex and age. The second is the visualization of multiple cross-tabulations in low-dimensional space by extended doubling technique of correspondence analysis. Survey researchers may get some help from this study to present their survey results more lucidly and visually.

How Accurate are the Telephone Polls in Korea? (전화여론조사의 예측정확도 분석)

  • Cho, Sung-Kyum
    • Survey Research
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.57-72
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    • 2009
  • In Korea, telephone surveys have been used in election forecasting since 1992. In some elections, predictions were excellent, but in some elections, the predictions based on telephone surveys were not good. So, exit polls have been used along with the telephone surveys in predicting election outcomes since 2001 by the major broadcasting networks. Though telephone surveys, in general, have been less accurate than exit polls in election forecasting from 2000 to 2003, they were more accurate in the 2004 General Election than the exit polls. All predictions on the winners by the telephone surveys turned out to be accurate. But such success has not persisted. In the 2008 General Election, the telephone surveys was less accurate than the exit polls and actually its accuracy fell clown to the level of the 2000 General Election. This paper tried to find out. the factors responsible for the fluctuation of the accuracy of telephone polls.

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Applying Propensity Score Adjustment on Election Web Surveys (인터넷 선거조사에서 성향가중모형 적용사례)

  • Lee, Kay-O;Jang, Deok-Hyun
    • Survey Research
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.21-36
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    • 2009
  • This study suggests the applicability of web surveys regarding elections in order to contact a great number of young people. The propensity weighting model was estimated using the demographic variables and the covariate variables collected during the 2007 presidential election surveys. In order to adjust the internet survey to the telephone survey, we used the propensity score method. Propensity score weighting made the internet survey results closer to the telephone survey results. This shows that an internet survey with propensity weighting model is a potential alternative survey method in the prediction of elections.

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미국민 8할이 원자력을 지지

  • 한국원자력산업회의
    • Nuclear industry
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    • v.8 no.10 s.68
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    • pp.65-67
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    • 1988
  • 세계를 놀라게 한 체르노빌원자력발전소 사고에도 불구하고 미국국민의 8할이 원자력을 지지하고 있음이 최근 실시한 여론조사의 결과에서 밝혀졌다. 이와같은 사실은 지난 5월 미국 캠브리지, 리포트사가 미국의 성인 1,500명을 대상으로 한 여론조사에서 응답자의 $78\%$가 원전 건설에 대해 강한 관심을 나타내는 것으로 밝혀졌다.

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Information Theory and Data Visualization Approach to Poll Analysis (정보이론과 시각화 방법에 의한 여론조사 분석의 새로운 접근방법)

  • Huh, Moon-Yul;Cha, Woon-Ock
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.61-78
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    • 2007
  • A method for poll analysis using information theory and data visualization is proposed in this paper. Questions of opinion poll consist of a target variable and many explanation variables. The type of explanation variables is either numerical or categorical. In this study, explanation variables of mixed types have been ranked according to the magnitude of their effect on target variable by using mutual information. Likewise, the order of explanation variables has been evaluated using data visualization. This is the first study to quantify the impact of specific explanation variable on the related target variable.

Measuring the Third-Person Effects of Public Opinion Polls: Focusing On Online Polls (여론조사보도에 대한 제3자효과 검증: 온라인 여론조사를 주목하며)

  • Kim, Sung-Tae;Willnat, Las;Weaver, David
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.32
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    • pp.49-73
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    • 2006
  • During the past decades, public opinion polls have become an ubiquitous tool for probing the complexity of people's beliefs and attitudes on a wide variety of issues. Especially since the late 1970s, the use of polls by news organizations has increased dramatically. Along with the proliferation of traditional polls, in the past few years pollsters and news organizations have come to recognize the advantages of online polls. Increasingly there has been more effort to take the pulse of the public through the Internet. With the Internet's rapid growth during the past years, advocates of online polling often emphasize the relative advantages over traditional polls. Researchers from Harris Black International Ltd., for example, argue that "Internet polling is less expensive and faster and offers higher response rates than telephone surveys." Moreover, since many of the newer online polls draw respondents from large databases of registered Internet users, results of online polls have become more balanced. A series of Harris Black online polls conducted during the 1998 gubernatorial and senatorial elections, for example, has accurately projected the winners in 21 of the 22 races it tracked. Many researchers, however, severely criticize online polls for not being representative of the larger population. Despite the often enormous number of participants, Internet users who participate in online polls tend to be younger, better educated and more affluent than the general population. As Traugott pointed out, the people polled in Internet surveys are a "self selected" group, and thus "have volunteered to be part of the test sample, which could mean they are more comfortable with technology, more informed about news and events ... than Americans who aren't online." The fact that users of online polls are self selected and demographically very different from Americans who have no access to the Internet is likely to influence the estimates of what the majority of people think about social or political issues. One of the goals of this study is therefore to analyze whether people perceive traditional and online public opinion polls differently. While most people might not differentiate sufficiently between traditional random sample polls and non representative online polls, some audiences might perceive online polls as more useful and representative. Since most online polls allow some form of direct participation, mostly in the form of an instant vote by mouse click, and often present their findings based on huge numbers of respondents, consumers of these polls might perceive them as more accurate, representative or reliable than traditional random sample polls. If that is true, perceptions of public opinion in society could be significantly distorted for those who rely on or participate in online polls. In addition to investigating how people perceive random sample and online polls, this study focuses on the perceived impact of public opinion polls. Similar to these past studies, which focused on how public opinion polls can influence the perception of mass opinion, this study will analyze how people perceive the effects of polls on themselves and other people. This interest springs from prior studies of the "third person effect," which have found that people often tend to perceive that persuasive communications exert a stronger influence on others than on themselves. While most studies concerned with the political effects of public opinion polls show that exit polls and early reporting of election returns have only weak or no effects on the outcome of election campaigns, some empirical findings suggest that exposure to polls can move people's opinions both toward and away from perceived majority opinion. Thus, if people indeed believe that polls influence others more than themselves, perceptions of majority opinion could be significantly altered because people might anticipate that others will react more strongly to poll results.

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Analysis of categorical data with nonresponses (무응답을 포함하는 범주형 자료의 분석)

  • 박태성;이승연
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.83-95
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    • 1998
  • Statistical models are proposed for analyzing categorical data in the presence of missing observations or nonresponses which might occur in the sampling surveys and polls. As an illustration, we analyzed real polling data of the pre-presidential election in the USA, 1948, It had been predicted that Dewey would win the election. However, Truman won in the actual election.

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A Study on the Evaluation for the Public Opinion Survey Data Quality Used in Theses (학위논문에 사용된 여론조사 자료의 품질평가에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hae-Yong;Lee, In-Kyeng
    • Survey Research
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.161-176
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the opinion survey data quality used in theses and to suggest the data quality evaluation model. We used 16 items which were suggested by KASR(Korean Association for Survey Research) as a standard of survey data quality evaluation in thesis. According to the result, the data quality used in the theses is very poor level not to be accepted. And we tried difference tests between two proportions in order to find there were significant differences among stochastical variables. The result showed that there were some significant differences in sampling error and number of analyzing method between doctor and master. we suggested a model that was weighted by 9 special items for a survey data quality evaluation in a thesis by observing them from KASR's principles.

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Prediction improvement of election polls by unstructured data analysis (비정형 데이터 분석을 통한 선거 여론조사 예측력 개선 방안 연구)

  • Park, Sunbin;Kim, Myung Joon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.655-665
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    • 2018
  • Social network services (SNS) have become the most common tool for the communication of public and private opinions as well as public issues; consequently, one may form or drive public opinions to advocate by spreading positive content using SNS. Controversy for survey data based opinion poll accuracy continues in relation to response rate or sampling methodology. This study suggests complementary measures that additionally consider the sentiment analysis results of unstructured data on a social network by data crawling and sentiment dictionary adjustment process. The suggested method shows the improvement of prediction accuracy by decreasing error rates.

Estimation of the Percent of the Vote by Adjustment of Voter Turnout in Election Polls (선거여론조사에서 투표율 반영을 통한 득표율 추정)

  • Kim, Jeonghoon;Han, Sang-Tae;Kang, Hyuncheol
    • Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.2873-2881
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    • 2018
  • It is very important to obtain objective and credible information through election polls in order to contribute to the correct voting behavior of the voters or to establish appropriate election strategies for candidates or political parties. Therefore, many related organizations such as political parties, media organizations, and research institutions have been making efforts to improve the accuracy of the results of the polls and the election prediction. Kim et al. (2017) analyzed whether the non-response group responded that there is no support candidate in the election survey to increase the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate. As a result, it has been confirmed that the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate can be significantly improved by performing an appropriate classification on the non-response layer. In this study, we propose a method to estimate the turnout by each strata (sex, age group) under the condition that the total turnout rate is given for a specific district (region) and propose a procedure to predict the vote rate by reflecting the turnout. In addition, case studies were conducted using data gathered through telephone interviews for the 20th National Assembly elections in 2016.