• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.171-179
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• 2018

The causal relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and winter climate variability in Korea is tested by analyzing Korea Meteorological Administration Automatic Synoptic Observing System datasets for the past 59 years. Consistent with previous studies, positive phase of ENSO (El Nino) tends to cause warmer temperature and heavier precipitation in Korea in early winter with three-week lead time. This causality is quantified by performing Granger causality test. It turns out that ENSO explains an additional 9.25% of the variance of early-winter temperature anomalies in Korea, beyond that already provided by temperature itself. Likewise, 22.18% additional information is gained to explain early-winter precipitation variance by considering ENSO. This result, which differs from simple lead-lag correlation analysis, suggests that ENSO needs to be considered in predicting early-winter surface climate variability in Korea.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.36 no.7
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• pp.611-616
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• 2015

El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) presents a broad band (2-8 year) variability and slowly changing amplitude and period, which are respectively referred to as ENSO irregularity and ENSO modulation. In this study, we developed a nonlinear low-order climate model by combining the Lorenz-63 model of nonlinear atmospheric variability and a simple ENSO model with recharge oscillator characteristics. The model successfully reproduced the ENSO-like variations in the sea surface temperature of eastern Pacific, such as the peak period, wide periodicity, and decadal modulations. The results show that the chaotic atmospheric forcing can lead to ENSO irregularity and ENSO modulation. It is also suggested the high probability of La Nina development could be associated with strong convection of the western warm pool. Although it is simple, this model is expected to be used in research on long-term climate change because it well captures the nonlinear air-sea interactions in the equatorial Pacific.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.882-889
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• 2022

In this study, to understand the factors influencing the flow change the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC), the correlation between the volume transport the TWC, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was analyzed. A calculation of the monthly volume transport of TWC for 25 years (1993-2018) revealed that the seasonal fluctuation cycle was the largest in summer and smallest in winter. Power spectrum analysis to determine the periodicity of the TWC volume transport, Oceanic Niño Undex (ONI), and PDO indicated that the TWC volume transport peaked at a one year cycle, but ONI and PDO showed no clear cycle. Further, to understand the correlation between the TWC transport volume and ONI and PDO, the coherence estimation method was used for analysis. The coherence of ONI and PDO had a high mutual contribution in long-period fluctuations of three years or more but had low mutual contribution in short-period fluctuations within one year. However, the coherence value between the two factors of the TWC volume transport and PDO was 0.7 in the 0.8-1.2 year cycle, which had a high mutual contribution. Meanwhile, the TWC volume transport and PDO have an inverse correlation between period I (1993-2002) and period III (2010-2018). When the TWC maximum transport volume (2.2 Sv or more) was high, the PDO index showed a negative value below -1.0, and the PDO index showed a positive value when the TWC maximum transport volume was (below 2.2 Sv). Therefore, using long-term PDO index data, changes in the TWC transport volume and water temperature in the East Sea coastal area could be predicted.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.68-81
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• 2015

In this study, the correlation between the frequency of summer tropical cyclones (TC) affecting areas around Korea over the last 37 years and the western North Pacific monsoon index (WNPMI) was analyzed. A clear positive correlation existed between the two variables, and this high positive correlation remained unchanged even when excluding El Ni$\tilde{n}$o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. To investigate the causes of the positive correlation between these two variables, ENSO years were excluded, after which the 8 years with the highest WNPMI (positive WNPMI phase) and the 8 years with the lowest WNPMI (negative WNPMI phase) were selected, and the average difference between the two phases was analyzed. In the positive WNPMI phase, TCs usually occurred in the eastern waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, and tended to pass the East China Sea on their way north toward Korea and Japan. In the negative WNPMI phase, TCs usually occurred in the western waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, and tended to pass the South China Sea on their way west toward the southeastern Chinese coast and the Indochina peninsula. Therefore, TC intensity was higher in the positive WNPMI phase, during which TCs are able to gain sufficient energy from the sea while moving a long distance to areas nearby Korea. TCs also tended to occur more often in the positive WNPMI phase. In the difference between the two phases regarding 850 and 500 hPa streamline, anomalous cyclones were reinforced in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, while anomalous anticyclones were reinforced in mid-latitude East Asian areas. Due to these two anomalous pressure systems, anomalous southeasterlies developed in areas near Korea, with these anomalous southeasterlies playing the role of anomalous steering flows making the TCs head toward areas near Korea. Also, due to the anomalous cyclones developed in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, more TCs could occur in the positive WNPMI phase.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.38 no.3
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• pp.194-208
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• 2017

This study analyzed the correlation between tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and the western North Pacific monsoon index (WNPMI), which have both been influential in East China Sea during the summer season over the past 37 years (1977-2013). A high positive correlation was found between these two variables, but it did not change even if El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years were excluded. To determine the cause of this positive correlation, the highest (positive WNPMI phase) and lowest WNPMIs (negative WNPMI phase) during an eleven-year period were selected to analyze the mean difference between them, excluding ENSO years. In the positive WNPMI phase, TCs were mainly generated in the eastern seas of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, passing through the East China Sea and moving northward toward Korea and Japan. In the negative phase, TCs were mainly generated in the western seas of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, passing through the South China Sea and moving westward toward China's southern regions. Therefore, TC intensity in the positive phase was stronger due to the acquisition of sufficient energy from the sea while moving a long distance up to East Asia's mid-latitude. Additionally, TCs occurred more in the positive phase. Regarding the difference in 850 hPa and 500 hPa stream flows between the two phases, anomalous cyclones were strengthened in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, whereas anomalous anticyclones were strengthened in East Asia's mid-latitude regions. Due to these two anomalous pressure systems, anomalous southeasterlies developed in East China Sea, which played a role in the anomalous steering flows that moved TCs into this region. Furthermore, due to the anomalous cyclones that developed in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, more TCs could be generated in the positive phase.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.325-334
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• 2022

It has been more than 30 years since the term climate change began to become popular, but recently, rapid accelerated phenomena are appearing in the form of extreme weather all over the world. It is showing a distinctly different phenomenon from previous years, with heavy rain falling in the Death Valley desert in the U.S., and temperatures rising more than 40 degrees in Europe. In the Korean Peninsula, super typhoons with very strong wind speeds have become a major disaster risk for many years, and the supply of more energy due to the rise in sea temperature increases the possibility of super typhoons, requiring a proactive response. Unlike the method using numerical analysis, this study analyzed past typhoon data to study changes in typhoon characteristics for coastal disaster prevention. Existing studies have targeted all typhoons that have occurred, but in this study, a specific area was set up in the southern ocean of the Korean Peninsula and then a study was conducted. The subjects of the study were typhoons that occurred over the past 40 years from 1980 to the present, and it was confirmed that the maximum wind speed of typhoons affecting the Korean Peninsula increased slightly. The wind speed of typhoons in the specific area is about 80% of the maximum wind speed in their lifetime, and a correlation with ENSO could not be confirmed.