• Title/Summary/Keyword: 양방향

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A Methodology of Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty Segmentation (이차원 고객충성도 세그먼트 기반의 고객이탈예측 방법론)

  • Kim, Hyung Su;Hong, Seung Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 2020
  • Most industries have recently become aware of the importance of customer lifetime value as they are exposed to a competitive environment. As a result, preventing customers from churn is becoming a more important business issue than securing new customers. This is because maintaining churn customers is far more economical than securing new customers, and in fact, the acquisition cost of new customers is known to be five to six times higher than the maintenance cost of churn customers. Also, Companies that effectively prevent customer churn and improve customer retention rates are known to have a positive effect on not only increasing the company's profitability but also improving its brand image by improving customer satisfaction. Predicting customer churn, which had been conducted as a sub-research area for CRM, has recently become more important as a big data-based performance marketing theme due to the development of business machine learning technology. Until now, research on customer churn prediction has been carried out actively in such sectors as the mobile telecommunication industry, the financial industry, the distribution industry, and the game industry, which are highly competitive and urgent to manage churn. In addition, These churn prediction studies were focused on improving the performance of the churn prediction model itself, such as simply comparing the performance of various models, exploring features that are effective in forecasting departures, or developing new ensemble techniques, and were limited in terms of practical utilization because most studies considered the entire customer group as a group and developed a predictive model. As such, the main purpose of the existing related research was to improve the performance of the predictive model itself, and there was a relatively lack of research to improve the overall customer churn prediction process. In fact, customers in the business have different behavior characteristics due to heterogeneous transaction patterns, and the resulting churn rate is different, so it is unreasonable to assume the entire customer as a single customer group. Therefore, it is desirable to segment customers according to customer classification criteria, such as loyalty, and to operate an appropriate churn prediction model individually, in order to carry out effective customer churn predictions in heterogeneous industries. Of course, in some studies, there are studies in which customers are subdivided using clustering techniques and applied a churn prediction model for individual customer groups. Although this process of predicting churn can produce better predictions than a single predict model for the entire customer population, there is still room for improvement in that clustering is a mechanical, exploratory grouping technique that calculates distances based on inputs and does not reflect the strategic intent of an entity such as loyalties. This study proposes a segment-based customer departure prediction process (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation) based on two-dimensional customer loyalty, assuming that successful customer churn management can be better done through improvements in the overall process than through the performance of the model itself. CCP/2DL is a series of churn prediction processes that segment two-way, quantitative and qualitative loyalty-based customer, conduct secondary grouping of customer segments according to churn patterns, and then independently apply heterogeneous churn prediction models for each churn pattern group. Performance comparisons were performed with the most commonly applied the General churn prediction process and the Clustering-based churn prediction process to assess the relative excellence of the proposed churn prediction process. The General churn prediction process used in this study refers to the process of predicting a single group of customers simply intended to be predicted as a machine learning model, using the most commonly used churn predicting method. And the Clustering-based churn prediction process is a method of first using clustering techniques to segment customers and implement a churn prediction model for each individual group. In cooperation with a global NGO, the proposed CCP/2DL performance showed better performance than other methodologies for predicting churn. This churn prediction process is not only effective in predicting churn, but can also be a strategic basis for obtaining a variety of customer observations and carrying out other related performance marketing activities.

A Reflectance Normalization Via BRDF Model for the Korean Vegetation using MODIS 250m Data (한반도 식생에 대한 MODIS 250m 자료의 BRDF 효과에 대한 반사도 정규화)

  • Yeom, Jong-Min;Han, Kyung-Soo;Kim, Young-Seup
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.445-456
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    • 2005
  • The land surface parameters should be determined with sufficient accuracy, because these play an important role in climate change near the ground. As the surface reflectance presents strong anisotropy, off-nadir viewing results a strong dependency of observations on the Sun - target - sensor geometry. They contribute to the random noise which is produced by surface angular effects. The principal objective of the study is to provide a database of accurate surface reflectance eliminated the angular effects from MODIS 250m reflective channel data over Korea. The MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) sensor has provided visible and near infrared channel reflectance at 250m resolution on a daily basis. The successive analytic processing steps were firstly performed on a per-pixel basis to remove cloudy pixels. And for the geometric distortion, the correction process were performed by the nearest neighbor resampling using 2nd-order polynomial obtained from the geolocation information of MODIS Data set. In order to correct the surface anisotropy effects, this paper attempted the semiempirical kernel-driven Bi- directional Reflectance Distribution Function(BRDF) model. The algorithm yields an inversion of the kernel-driven model to the angular components, such as viewing zenith angle, solar zenith angle, viewing azimuth angle, solar azimuth angle from reflectance observed by satellite. First we consider sets of the model observations comprised with a 31-day period to perform the BRDF model. In the next step, Nadir view reflectance normalization is carried out through the modification of the angular components, separated by BRDF model for each spectral band and each pixel. Modeled reflectance values show a good agreement with measured reflectance values and their RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) was totally about 0.01(maximum=0.03). Finally, we provide a normalized surface reflectance database consisted of 36 images for 2001 over Korea.

Risk Factor Analysis and Surgical Indications for Pulmonary Artery Banding (폐동맥 밴딩의 위험인자 분석과 수술적응중)

  • Lee Jeong Ryul;Choi Chang Hyu;Min Sun Kyung;Kim Woong Han;Kim Yong Jin;Rho Joon Ryang;Bae Eun Jung;Noh Chung I1;Yun Yong Soo
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.38 no.8 s.253
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    • pp.538-544
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    • 2005
  • Background: Pulmonary artery banding (PAB) is an initial palliative procedure for a diverse group of patients with congenital cardiac anomalies and unrestricted pulmonary blood flow. We proved the usefulness of PAB through retrospective investigation of the surgical indication and risk analysis retrospectively. Material and Method: One hundred and fifty four consecutive patients (99 males and 55 females) who underwent PAB between January 1986 and December 2003 were included. We analysed the risk factors for early mortality and actuarial survival rate. Mean age was $2.5\pm12.8\;(0.2\sim92.7)$ months and mean weight was $4.5\pm2.7\;(0.9\sim18.0)\;kg$. Preoperative diagnosis included functional single ventricle $(88,\;57.1\%)$, double outlet right ventricle $(22,\;14.2\%)$, transposition of the great arteries $(26,\;16.8\%)$, and atrioventricular septal defect $(11,\;7.1\%)$. Coarctation of the aorta or interrupted aortic arch $(32,\;20.7\%)$, subaortic stenosis $(13,\;8.4\%)$ and total anomalous pulmonary venous connection $(13,\;8.4\%)$ were associated. Result: The overall early mortality was $22.1\%\;(34\;of\;154)$, The recent series from 1996 include patients with lower age $(3.8\pm15.9\;vs.\;1.5\pm12.7,\;p=0.04)$ and lower body weight $(4.8\pm3.1\;vs.\;4.0\pm2.7,\;p=0.02)$. The early mortality was lower in the recent group $(17.5\%;\;16/75)$ than the earlier group $(28.5\%;\;18/45)$. Aortic arch anomaly (p=0.004), subaortic stenosis (p=0.004), operation for subaortic stenosis (p=0.007), and cardiopulmonary bypass (p=0.007) were proven to be risk factors for early death in univariate analysis, while time of surgery (<1996) (p=0.026) was the only significant risk factor in multivariate analysis. The mean time interval from PAB to the second-stage operation was $12.8\pm10.9$ months. Among 96 patients who survived PAB, 40 patients completed Fontan operation, 21 patients underwent bidirectional cavopulmonary shunt, and 35 patients underwent biventricular repair including 25 arterial switch operations. Median follow-up was $40.1\pm48.9$ months. Overall survival rates at 1 year, 5 years and 10 years were $81.2\%\;65.0\%,\;and\;63.5\%$ respectively. Conclusion: Although it improved in recent series, early mortality was still high despite the advances in perioperative management. As for conventional indications, early primary repair may be more beneficial. However, PA banding still has a role in the initial palliative step in selective groups.