• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.45-68
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• 1994

이 글에서는 Johansen의 공적분(共積分) 검정방법(檢定方法)을 사용하여 총통화수요함수(總通貨需要函數)의 장기적(長期的) 안정성(安定性)을 검토하였다. 검정결과, 총통화(總通貨)와 실질국민총생산(實質國民總生産), 그리고 회사채수익률(會社債收益率) 사이에 한 개의 공적분관계(共積分關係)가 존재하여 이들 변수들 사이에 안정적인 장기균충관계(長期均衝關係)가 성립하는 것으로 나타났다. 통화수요(通貨需要)의 실질소득(實質所得)에 대한 탄성치(彈性値)가 1이라는 가정은 기각되었으며, 균형으로부터의 일시적 이탈에 대한 조정은 실질소득(實質所得)이나 이자율(利子率)보다는 주로 실질통화수요(實質通貨需要)에 의해 이루어지는 것으로 판정되었다.

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.32-44
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• 1987

This study was carried out to analyze and furecast the domestic demand for plywood in Korea by regression models with time-series data for 16 years(1970-85). The results obtained were summarized as follows. 1. To analyze domestic demand for plywood, GNP, PWI and CWI were used as independant variables. The domestic demand equation was computed as follows: $^{in}DDP$=0.65186+1.29412 $^{in}GNP$-0.28385 $^{in}PWI$-1.05011 $^{in}CWI$ Where DDP : Domestic demand for plywood(1000 S/F) GNP: Gross national product (Billion won) PWI : Real wholesale price index of plywood CWI: Real wholesale price index of construction materials. 2. Among independant variables reflecting on the production activity of plywood industry, GNP was the most decisive in forecasting the domestic demand for plywood. 3. The significance can be recognized highly because the decision coefficient of the forecasting model which is obtained by using time series data is 0.9. 4. According to the estimated regression coefficients for GNP, PWI and CWI, GNP shows positive relation while PWI and CWI show negative relation. 5. An annual average increase rate of demand for plywood was 9.4 percent during expect period. Therefore, it was decreased slightly than that of 10.2 percent during sample period.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.1-28
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• 1997

최근 전력가격의 인상을 통한 전력수요 조절에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있다. 본고에서는 개방경제 CGE 모형을 통하여 전기요금 인상이 국민총생산, 물개 무역수지 등 주요 거시변수들에 미치는 영향과 개별 산업의 생산, 생산물 가격, 수출입에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 이를 위하여 1993년도 산업연관표에 기초하여 전체 산업을 16개 부분으로 통합, 재분류한 뒤, 전기요금 인상에 대한 다양한 정책실험을 시도하였다. 분석 결과 전력가격인상은 실질총생산의 감소 및 물가의 상승을 가져오나 그 정도는 기존의 연구보다 작은 것으로 나타났으며, 수출과 수입은 모두 감소하나 수출감소율이 수입감소율을 초과하여 무역수지는 악화되는 것으로 나타났다. 산업부문별로는 전기요금인상에 따라 비교역재에 가까운 서비스업의 생산량 감소효과가 두드러진 것으로 나타났다.

• 전기의세계
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• v.41 no.12
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• pp.9-12
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• 1992

우리의 산업발전은 일본이라는 심정상의 경쟁자와 실질적인 후원자가 있었기 때문에 많이 촉진되었다. 그래서 1991년 현재 조립산업위주로 성장한 구조를 갖고 있으며 그에 대한 결과로 88억달러의 대일무역 적자를 안아야만 하는 매우 취약한 일면을 갖고 있다. 따라서 한국은 현장을 유대할 수 있는 형편이 못되고 마치 자전거와 같아서 전진하지 못하면 넘어지므로 선진국을 지향하는 길밖에 없다. 그러나 선진국이 되기 위해서 갖추어야 할 여건이 간단한 것은 아니다. 국민총생산도 어느 규모이상은 되어야 하고 문화수준도 어느 정도되어야 한다. 그러나 무엇보다도 세계일류의 산업으로 몇가지는 가지고 있어야 하고 그 산업을 뒷받침 하는 기술이 있어야 함은 분명하다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.3-26
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• 1987

본연구(本硏究)의 목적(目的)은 과거 2년간 삼저현상(三低現象)이 실질국민총생산(實質國民總生産), 수출(輸出), 수입(輸入)(유류도입액(油類導入額) 제외) 및 도매물가지수(都賣物價指數)에 미친 영향을 분석(分析)하는 데 있다. 분석(分析)에 있어서는 'Lucas의 비평(批評)'에 위배되지 않도록 하기 위하여 모형(模型)의 계수(係數)가 시간이 흐름에 따라 변화(變化)할 수 있도록 허용한 BVAR모형(模型)을 작성(作成)하여 사용하였다. 이에 따라 삼저효과(三低效果)를 국제금리(國際金利), 원유가격(原油價格), 달러화가치(貨價値) 등의 변동(變動)으로서의 순수한 가격효과(價格效果)와 이들 가격변동(價格變動)으로 야기(惹起)된 경제행위주체(經濟行爲主體)의 행동변화(行動變化)를 반영(反映)하는 경제구조변화효과(經濟構造變化效果)로 양분(兩分)하여 계산하였다. 분석결과(分析結果)에 의하면 구조변화효과(構造變化效果)가 가격효과(價格效果)에 못지않게 상당히 큰 것으로 계산되어, 대외여건(對外與件)의 급변(急變)에 대한 경제행위주체(經濟行爲主體)의 대응노력(對應努力)이 매우 중요했던 것으로 나타났다. 이는 어떠한 축약형모형(縮約型模型)을 사용하여 정책(政策)의 급선회(急旋回) 혹은 대외여건(對外與件)의 급변(急變)과 같은 시뮬레이션을 할 때에는 그 결과(結果)가 매우 부정확할 수도 있다는 것을 의미(意味)한다.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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• v.39 no.5
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• pp.755-764
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• 2015

This study investigates if the relationships between hemline and macro-economic factors (rGDP, recession, and unemployment) are still applicable as well as analyzes time lags that reflect economic factors on the hemline index using U.S. data. The hemline theory and fashion cyclical theory were applied to propose the relationships studied. The data for the hemline measurements of women's day-wear were obtained from US Vogue spring and fall editions from 1950 to 2014. Data were standardized by dividing the length from shoulder to hemline by the length from the shoulder to ankle. I aggregated 2260 samples and hemline data to create a yearly average. This study used OLS of Stata 13 program to explore the relationship between macro-economic factors and hemline. The main findings were the recession and unemployment influenced hemline length for four years in a positive direction. Furthermore, the effects of previous recession and unemployment on the current hemline were very close to the significant level respectively. This finding supports the hemline theory in that a recessionary economy is related to longer hemlines and hemlines become shorter in flourishing economic periods.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.239-267
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• 2009

Investment in health through an array of public health policies will lead to improvement of health at all levels, and the improved health can reduce the socioeconomic costs incurred with diseases. And finally, with reduced healthcare costs associated with diseases and health problems, economy will be able to achieve economic growth and development. Using simultaneous equations model, this study aims to identify this possible channel from public health policies to economic growth. Specifically, the policy effect is investigated on a basis of main disease groups and aging groups. The public health policies are proved to reduce healthcare costs related with disease groups including respiratory, digestive, circulative, and infectious disease, and with all age groups except 20~39 group. And the reduced healthcare costs have shown to increase the real gross domestic products in those group above.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.41-50
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• 2009

Chain-linking is a method for aggregating volume measures which would improve the quality of estimates of economic growth over the present fixed base in Korea. There is a risk that choice of chain-linking techniques such annual overlap, one-quarter overlap or over-the-year overlap may create an artificial seasonality to the volume series. The empirical results on Korean GDP suggest that the use of the annual overlap is recommended. And conducting seasonal adjustment after chain-linking to produce the chain-linked seasonally adjusted GDP is more appropriated in Korea.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.65 no.1
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• pp.80-91
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• 1984

The purposes of this study are to analyze and forecast the domestic demand for papers by regression models with time-series data (1965-81). For the period of 1965-81, the real GNP of Korea grew at annual average increase rate of 8.8 percent. On the other hand, the domestic demand of papers grew at annual average increase rate of 17.9 percent in this period. Especially, the annual average increase rate for board-papers accounted to 25.8 percent. To analyze domestic demand for papers, GNP, per capita GNP, price findex of papers, production activity index of the major papers consuming industries and price index of substitutive goods were selected as independent variables. The expected values of domestic demand for papers were computed by forecasting equations as follows. T-values are in parentheses. ${\ell}nDDP=2.452+1.986{\ell}nPG-0.844{\ell}nPWI$ $(33.397)^*\;(-6.149)^*\;R^2=0.997$ ${\ell}nDDP=6.468+0.827{\ell}nPDA$ $(17.403)^*\;R^2=0.950$ DDP : Domestic demand for papers PG : Real GNP per capita (1,000 won) PWI : Real price index of papers (1980 = 100) PDAV : Production activity index of the major papers consuming industries The results analyzed and forecasted by these models are summarized as follows: The domestic demand for papers had positive correlation toward per capita GNP and production activity index of the major papers consuming industries. Per capita GNP elasticity of the domestic demand for papers was the most elastic among independent variables. The price elasticity of domestic demand for papers had negative sign and inelastic. These were not only statistically significant but theoretically compatible. The domestic demand for papers was projected to be 3,152-4,470 thousand mit in 1991, representing at annual increase rate of 5.0-12.4 percent during the period of 1982-91. Domestic demand for papers per capita was projected to be 69.1-98.0 kg in 1991.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.169-182
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• 2017

This research reviews regulations on logistics/transport industry and attempts to quantify the effects of regulation mitigation on GDP per capita. South Korea's transport industry has been gradually expanding, however, the industrial structure is still short rooted. In 2014, average number of hours worked is 5th highest and wage margin 12th smallest out of 18 industries. Furthermore, the regulations for this industry appear to be stricter than those of other industries. OECD's logistics/transport industry regulatory index for South Korea has been decreasing for the last 40 years but still exceeds those of EU, Japan, US, and other countries. This paper provides supporting reasons for regulatory reforms by analyzing the ripple effects on real GDP. Factors such as the ratio of trade among GDP, the enrollment rate to primary school, energy usage per capita, and population are controlled in the fixed-effect model. Estimation results showed that 1 unit decrease in transport/logistics regulatory index is correlated with 8.1% increase of the real GDP per capita, that is, 10% of deregulation is expected to yield 2.16% increase in GDP per capita. Thus, it is expected that mitigating regulations on market entries, price determination, ownership structures of network industry, vertical integrations can improve the economy of South Korea.