• 재활복지
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.127-149
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• 2013

This study analyzed the hazard of unemployment and the influencing factors on the rate. Data came from the Panel Survey of Employment for the Disabled(PSED), 2010-2012, which is a longitudinal survey for 5,092 disabled people in Korea. For the main purpose of this study, the life-table method was used for describing the patterns of unemployment duration by disabled, and the cox proportional hazard model was used to identify significant factors on the unemployment duration. The results were as follows. First, according to the life table analysis, the unemployment rate to remain until the longest period of unemployment(25month) is 90.5%, and the rate of entry into the labor market was only 9.5%. Overall, the unemployment maintenance rate was high, the unemployment escape rate decreased after 12month. Second, looking at the results from the cox proportional hazards model, the unemployment escape possibility were increased for those who are male, are non-public benefit recipient with disability, have mild disability, and have less discrimination experiences. With these results, disability discrimination act which can reduce the disability discrimination in employment site should be strengthened. Also, the scheme of Nation Basic Protection Program should be modified to attract the employment of recipients with disability. Finally, policy targets having employment escape difficulty, such as women with disability, people with severe disabilities should be departmentalized. And employment service is provided in accord with the individual needs and characteristics.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.111-151
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• 2003

This study attempted to analize the hazard rate from unemployment and the influncing factors on the rate by regions. The data this study uses is Korea Labor Institute Panal Study(1998-2001) and the models are hazard analysis and Cox model. The results of hazard analysis are as follow. In capital and it's vicinity, the duration of unemployment is shorter than other regions even if the unemployment rate is higher. The labor market segmentation is confirmed between capital and it's vicinity region and other regions. Kyungsang region is higher in the unemployment hazard rate than Chunla or Chungchung regions. The duration of unemployment in capital and it's vicinity is 9.29 months comparing 11.86 months in the other region. The difference is statistically significant by the significance level 0.001. The duration of unemployment in Kyungsang is 6.96 months comparing 10.95 months in Chunla region. The Cox results which indicate the influncing factors on the hazard rate are as follow. In the regions like non-metro cities and non-capital and vicinitiy, the factors such as female, tenure, wage earners, manufacturing, wholesale and retale decrease the hazard rate. The results indicate that active labor market policies region by region are needed in Korea, especially for the marginal unemployed workes from non flourishing sectors.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.1-29
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• 1999

한국은 지난 1960년대 이후 실업률이 추세적으로 하락하여왔기 때문에 실업구조, 직업탐색에 대한 관심이 비교적 적었으나 최근의 고 실업률은 이에 대한 연구의 필요성을 제고시키고 있다. 기존의 연구들은 저 실업률 시기의 자료를 사용한 것이므로 1998년의 고 실업률 자료를 활용한 연구는 다른 연구결과를 가져올 것이다. 이 글은 고 실업률 시기로 진입한 지 1년이 되는 98년 11월말 광주광역시에서 실시된 상시고 실직자에 대한 설문조사자료를 이용하여 고 실업률 시기의 실직자의 직업탐색과 실업기간을 분석하였다. 본 연구결과는 기존의 연구결과와 많은 부분에서 일치하지만 한국에서 대량실업은 처음 겪는 상황이므로 이전의 연구결과와 다르거나 새로 확인된 사실들도 몇 가지 있다. 연구결과를 요약 정리하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 비자발적 이유에 의한 실직자가 약 70%를 차지하고 구인배율이 아주 낮아 최근의 실업은 수요부족에서 발생한 것이라고 할 수 있다. 따라서 임금을 낮추고 희망하지 않는 직종 산업 종사상 지위로 하향 구직을 하고 있었다. 둘째, 고실업률이 장기화되면서 나타난 현상으로는 구직경로가 다양해졌고, 유보 임금 및 수락임금이 전직임금보다 약 20% 하락함으로써 임금이 신축적임을 보여 주었다. 그러나 고실업 사태를 급작스럽게 맞이하면서 이전임금에 대한 집착이 강하여 하락폭은 충분히 신축적이었다고 보기는 어렵다. 셋째, 실업보험수급자는 유보임금 하락률이 높았고 실업 탈출률도 높았다. 이것은 직업탐색이론과 상반된 결과로 노동수요부족사태를 처음 겪으면서 노동시장에 대한 정보가 모든 실업자에게 동일하지 않고, 실업보험수급자가 보다 완전한 정보를 가지고 있으며, 실업보험지급에 따른 구직독려 때문인 것으로 생각된다. 넷째, 기존 연구들과 마찬가지로 유보임금은 전직 임금에 크게 의존하였으며 실업기간에 대한 해자드 분석에 의하면 유보임금의 대리변수인 전직임금이 낮을수록, 구직을 적극적으로 할수록 탈출률일 높았다. 인적속성으로는 인적자본축적이 많고 다양한 취업정보를 접할 수 있는 고학력자의 탈출률이 높았다. 다른 나라에 대한 기존 연구의 근속기간이 긴 남성 실업자는 실업기간이 길었지만 여기서는 반대의 결과가 나왔다. 그것은 기업의 도산 등에 따른 실직자의 경우 유용한 인적자본 보유자가 많고 축적된 자산으로 자영업으로 탈출할 확률이 높기 때문인 것으로 해석된다.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.91-134
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• 2010

This study examines job transition process and its lahor market performance by reasons of job separation, using the Employment Insurance DB(2000~07). The findings show that involuntary job changers lend to suffer greater loss in job spell and real wage than voluntary job changers, which seems to reflect their characteristics such as lower quality of job matching due to unsystematic job search, negative signaling effect in the labor market and decreasing availability of human capital in previous job. In addition, unemployment benefit eligible for involuntary job changers tends to prolong the period of unemployment, while increasing job spell in the following employment.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.1-26
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• 2010

Introducing a concept of 'the Effect of My Mom's Friend's Son'(MMFS Effect) into the conventional job search theory to develop it further, we try to estimate its effects on the hazard rate of youth pre-employment duration with some proxy variables such as his/her parents' schooling, monthly temporary/daily workers ratio, monthly average wage differentials between the workers of large and small firms. The results confirm us the fact that so called 'MMFS Effect' has been strengthened gradually up to recently. Their policy implications are as followings. Firstly, from the standpoint of shortening job searching period of youth and raising the hazard rate of their unemployment, the trend that the differentials of wages and quality of jobs in the labor market are expanding continuously is not desirable at all. Secondly, the problems of youth unemployment cannot be solved easily only by providing correct and relevant informations about the labor markets simply.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.121-161
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• 1999

1997년 11월 대외지불 불능사태로 시작된 외환위기가 경제위기로 확산되면서 97년 4/4분기에는 2.5%에 불과하던 전북지역의 실업률은 99년 2월 8.4%로 피크를 이루었으나 그후로는 감소추세를 보이고 있다. 그렇지만 전북지역 노동시장의 전반적 고용동향을 살펴보면 실업률 통계로는 파악되지 않지만 실질적으로 준실업상태에 있는 실망노동자와 불완전취업자의 증가가 심각한 것으로 드러났다. 그리고 산업별 취업자 구조의 변화를 살펴보면 제조업과 건설업의 취업자 감소가 두드러졌으며, 농업부문이나 생계형 서비스업은 실업대란 시대에 완충역할을 해줄 것이라는 기대와는 달리 고용흡수력이 예상보다 훨씬 적은 것으로 드러났다. 취업과 실업 및 비경제활동 사이의 노동력 전이률을 살펴보면 남성과 핵심연령층에서는 취업정착률이 높지만 일단 실업자가 되면 실업으로부터의 탈출률이 낮은 것으로 드러났다. 반면에 여성의 경우에는 실망노동자(discouraged sorkers)효과로 인하여 실업률은 낮고 비경제활동으로의 이동이 크게 나타났다. 그리고 실업이나 비경활상태로부터의 (재)취업시에는 압도적으로 임시고/일고로의 취업이 많아서 98년 하반기 이후 전북지역에서 창출된 일자리가 주로 임시고/일고 위주로 이루어져 있음을 극명하게 보여준다. 한편 여성실업자의 경우 50%이상이 생계주책임자이며, 특히 여성가장 실업자의 경우에는 90%이상이 생계책임자이나 그들 대부분이 빈곤선이하에서 생활하고 있다. 그리고 전북지역에서는 전국수준에 비해서 장기실업률이 다소 높게 나타났다. 저학력층과 고령층, 생산직, 임시고일고등의 비정규직 실업자들의 구직기간이 긴 것으로 나타났다. 실업이 장기화되면 전반적으로 기간의존성효과(duration dependence effect)나 이질성효과(heterogeneity effect)로 인하여 재취업의 가능성은 더욱 떨어진다. 생산적복지(workfare)가 그 이름에 값하는 것이기 위해서는 시장경쟁력이 약한 취약계층에 대해서 직업훈련과 취업알선 및 채용장려, 공공근로 등의 제반 정책들이 가구되어야 할 것이다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.285-294
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• 2016

In general, employment duration is influenced by the individual characteristics (level-1) as well as type of the occupational characteristics (level-2). That is, the data has hierarchical structure in the sense that individual employment duration is influenced by the individual-level variables (level-1) and the job-level (level-2) variables. In this paper, we study the determinants of the employment duration of youth-intern in the SMEs (small and medium enterprises) using Cox's mixed effect model. Major results at level-1 variables are as followings. First, the hazard rate of treatment group is lower than that of control group. Second, the hazard rate of woman is lower than that of man. Also, the hazard rate is lower, for the older and the workers working in the bigger company. Investigation of level-2 variables has shown that random effect for job-level is statistically significant.

• Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.3069-3085
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• 2018

In this study, we examined the effect of non-cognitive factors on job tenure and tenure using KLIPS. We examine the internal consistency of the big5 personality trait and of the locus of control, and use the parameterized proportional hazards model. As a result, we confirmed that non-cognitive skill such as personality traits and locus of control affect individual labor market performance. Conscientiousness has shown that the job seeking period of adult job seekers is lengthened, thereby lowering the unemployment rate. It can be understood that high attentiveness under uncertainty can misinterpret information, and that lack of decision restricts escape from unemployment. In the tenure analysis, people with internal locus of control tendency were less likely to leave the job due to longer tenure. Those who have internal control can not only be preferred by the organization but also the internal control tendency seems to be the factor that maintains the long-term job because of the motivation and self-control of their actions.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.47-74
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• 2002

Since the Economic Crisis at the end of 1997, unemployment rate soared up to the record-high 8.6% (February 1999) and, for youth aged 15~29, it was 14.6% (27.8% for aged 15~19). In spite of economic recovery after the crisis, new participants in labor market at the school-to-work transition have faced with difficulties in finding their first jobs and, even further, the ratio of youth at out-of the labor force but not in school has remained at a higher level. It is important to calibrate the negative effects of nonemployment in the short-run as well as in the long-run, but there has been few study on the school-to-work transition in Korea. This study focus on the nonemployment duration to first job after formal education and comparison of its pattern before and after the crisis. A proportional hazard model, considering job prenaration before graduation (21.4% of the sample), with the semi-parametric baseline hazard is applied to the sample from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Survey(1998~2000) and its Youth Supplemental survey(2000). Interview of the Survey is conducted, by the Korea Labor Institute, to the same 5,000 household and 13,738 individual sample, guaranteeing nationwide representativeness. The Supplemental Survey consists of 3,302 young individuals aged 15 to 29 at the time of survey and 1,615 of them who are not in school and provide appropriate information is used for the analysis. The empirical results show that there exists negative duration dependence at the first three or for months at the transition period and no duration dependence since a turning point of the baseline hazard rate and that unemployment rate reflecting labor demand conditions has a positive effect on exiting the nonemployment state, which is inconsistent with a theoretical conclusion. Estimation with samples separated by the date of graduation before and after the crisis shows that the effect of unemployment rate on the hazard was negative for the pre-crisis sample but positive for the post-crisis sample.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.121-168
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• 2014

After analyzing and finding the explaining factors about the "Effect of My Mom's Friend's Son (MMFS Effect)" with online-surveyed data, we introduce this concept into the conventional job search theory to develop it further. We try to estimate its effects on the hazard rate of youth pre-employment duration with some proxy variables such as his/her parents' schooling, living with parents dummy, increasing rate of consumer price index representing the burdens of parents, monthly temporary/daily workers ratio, relative ratio of quarterly 90th percentile urban household income, monthly average wage differentials between the workers of large and small firms, etc. The results confirm us the fact that so called "MMFS Effect" has been effective enough and strengthened up to recently. The conventional job search theory should be extended to be able to introduce the influencing effects of other person's success, for instance MMFS's success, on the job search behavior of youths, too.