• Title/Summary/Keyword: 신뢰도공학

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A Case Study on Quantifying Uncertainties of Geotechnical Random Variables (지반 확률변수의 불확실성 정량화에 관한 사례연구)

  • Han, Sang-Hyun;Yea, Geu-Guwen;Kim, Hong-Yeon
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 2012
  • Probabilistic design methods have been used as a design standard in Korea and abroad for achieving reasonable design by considering the statistical uncertainties of soil properties. In this study, the following techniques for reflecting geotechnical uncertainty are analyzed: quantification of the uncertainties of geotechnical random variables, and consideration of economic feasibility in design by minimizing the uncertainties related to the number of samples. To quantify the uncertainties, the techniques were applied to soil properties obtained from samples collected and tested in the field. The results showed an underestimation of the standard deviation by the 3-sigma approach in comparison with calculations using data from the samples. This finding indicates that economical design is possible in terms of probability. However, when compared with the Bayesian approach, which does not consider the number of samples, variability in the 3-sigma approach is underestimated for some variables. This finding also indicates a safety issue, whereas the number of samples based on the Bayesian approach showed the lowest variance. The variance of the probability density function showed a marked decrease with increasing number of samples, to converge at a certain level when the number exceeds 25. Of note, the estimation of values is more reliable for random variables having low variability, such as soil unit weight, and can be obtained with a small number of samples.

Groundwater-use Estimation Method Based on Field Monitoring Data in South Korea (실측 자료에 기반한 우리나라 지하수의 용도별 이용량 추정 방법)

  • Kim, Ji-Wook;Jun, Hyung-Pil;Lee, Chan-Jin;Kim, Nam-Ju;Kim, Gyoo-Bum
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.467-476
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    • 2013
  • With increasing interest in environmental issues and the quality of surface water becoming inadequate for water supply, the Korean government has launched a groundwater development policy to satisfy the demand for clean water. To drive this policy effectively, it is essential to guarantee the accuracy of sustainable groundwater yield and groundwater use amount. In this study, groundwater use was monitored over several years at various locations in Korea (32 cities/counties in 5 provinces) to obtain accurate groundwater use data. Statistical analysis of the results was performed as a method for estimating rational groundwater use. For the case of groundwater use for living purposes, we classified the cities/counties into three regional types (urban, rural, and urban-rural complex) and divided the groundwater facilities into five types (domestic use, apartment housing, small-scale water supply, schools, and businesses) according to use. For the case of agricultural use, we defined three regional types based on rainfall intensity (average rainfall, below-average rainfall, and above-average rainfall) and the facilities into six types (rice farming, dry-field farming, floriculture, livestock-cows, livestock-pigs, and livestock-chickens). Finally, we developed groundwater-use estimation equations for each region and use type, using cluster analysis and regression model analysis of the monitoring data. The results will enhance the reliability of national groundwater statistics.

Cosmetics Buying Patterns and Satisfaction among Female University Students in China, Japan and Korea (한.중.일 삼국여대생들의 화장품구매실태 연구)

  • Choi, Ju-Young;Kim, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Mi-Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.31 no.12
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    • pp.1772-1783
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    • 2007
  • This study aimed to investigate differences in the purchasing patterns of and the levels of satisfaction with cosmetic products, and the method of disposing dissatisfied cosmetics for female university students among China, Japan and Korea. Survey was conducted with 1,200 female coeducational university students in Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul and 1,115 were used for the data analysis. Data were analysed by frequency analysis, Cronbach's ${\alpha}$, chi-square analysis, analysis of variance, Duncan's Multiple Range test. The results showed significant differences in purchasing behaviors in China, Japan and Korea. Japanese students mainly got information through objective sources, while Koreans did so through human network. Regrading the evaluative criteria for basic care items, function and effect were the most important criteria for Chinese and Korean consumers and skin compatibility for Japanese. For color make-up, Chinese, Japanese and Korean respondents respectively cared the most on brand image, convenience of purchase and the current trend. Chinese tended to shop cosmetics at department stores due to store reputation, Japanese preferred supermarkets and pharmacies and Koreans shopped at discount stores for low price. The most influential human sources were friends and colleagues for Chinese and Korean, and models on advertisements and magazines for Japanese. Korean respondents displayed the highest level of satisfaction with cosmetics followed by Japanese and Chinese. As for the methods of disposing dissatisfactory cosmetics, Chinese were the most active in exchanging for other product; Japanese and Korean were not likely to use or throw the products away.

Quantitative EC Signal Analysis on the Axial Notch Cracks of the SG Tubes (SG Tube 축방향 노치 균열의 정량적 EC 신호평가)

  • Min, Kyong-Mahn;Park, Jung-Am;Shin, Ki-Seok;Kim, In-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.374-382
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    • 2009
  • Steam generator(SG) tube, as a barrier isolating primary to the secondary coolant system of nuclear power plants(NPP), must maintain the structural integrity far the public safety and its efficient power generation capacity. And SG tubes bearing defects must be timely detected and taken repair measures if needed. For the accomplishment of these objectives, SG tubes have been periodically examined by eddy current testing(ECT) on the basis of administrative notices and intensified SG management program(SGMP). Stress corrosion cracking(SCC) on the SG tubes is not easily detected and even missed since it has lower signal amplitude and other disturbing factors against its detection. However once SCC is developed, that can cause detrimental affects to the SG tubes due to its rapid propagation rate. Accordingly SCC is categorized as prime damage mechanism challenging the soundness of the SG tubes. In this study, reproduced EDM notch specimens are examined for the detectability and quantitative characterization of the axial ODSCC by +PT MRPC probe, containing pancake, +PT and shielded pancake coils apart in a single plane around the circumference. The results of this study are assumed to be applicable fur providing key information of engineering evaluation of SCC and improvement of confidence level of ECT on SG tubes.

The Development of Neural Network Model to Improve the Reliability of the Demand/Effort Model for Evaluating Highway Safety (도로위험도를 평가하는 요구/노력모형의 신뢰도 향상을 위한 신경망 모형 개발)

  • Jeong, Bong-Jo;Gang, Jae-Su;Jang, Myeong-Sun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.95-105
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    • 2009
  • Traffic accidents on highways are likely to happen when there is an imbalance in the complex relationships among key elements such as road geometries, driver related factors, and mechanical performances. The Demand-Effort Model (DEM), which evaluates highway safety, can be explained by the imbalance, which occurs when the level of demand of the driver's attention to the road environment exceeds that of the response from the driver. This study suggests a new model that improves the reliability of the current DEM through the reinterpretation on the physiological signals with the help of the Neural Network Model (NNM). The data were collected from 149 subjects, who drove a test vehicle on the Yongdong, Honam, and Seohaean Expressways in Korea. Three important results could be drawn from the recursive tests as follows; (1) Only 5 out of 10 parameters on the physiological signals which are currently used were proven to be meaningful through the Normality Test, Cluster Analysis, and Mann-Whitney Analysis. (2) The revised DEM, which internally uses the NNM, showed more reliable results than existing DEM. Group 1, which is based on the new DEM showed 80.0% of accuracy in measuring the level of driver's efforts, however, that of Group 2 based on the current DEM was 74.3%. (3) Field tests on the Honam Expressway showed lower 'type II error' with the new DEM (40.5%) than the old DEM (58.8%). The DEM is designed as a quick and easy way to determine highway safety prior to the minute road safety audit (RSA) by a professional audit team. Then a new DEM, which is based on the NNM, needs to be considered since it showed higher reliability and lower error.

Assessment of Runout Distance of Debris using the Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 사태물질 이동거리 산정)

  • Seo Yong-Seok;Chae Byung-Gon;Kim Won-Young;Song Young-Suk
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.15 no.2 s.42
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    • pp.145-154
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    • 2005
  • This study conducted to develop an assessment method of runout distance of debris flow that is a major type of landslides in Korea. In order to accomplish the objectives, this study performed detailed field survey of runout distance and laboratory soil tests using 24 landslides over three pilot sites. Based on the data of the field survey and the laboratory tests, an assessment method of runout distance was suggested using the artificial neural network. The input data for the analysis of artificial neural network are change rate of slope angle, Permeability coefficient of in-situ soil, dry density, void ratio, volume of debris and the measured runout distance. The analyzed results using the artificial neural network show low error rate of inference distributing lower than $10\%$. Some cases have $5\%$ and $2\%$ of error rates of inferences. The results can be thought as excellent teaming rates. However, it is difficult to be accepted as excellent results if it is considered with the results derived using only 24 landslide data. Therefore, more landslide data should be surveyed and analyzed to increase the confidence in the assessment results.

Remote Measurements of the Geological Structures, Using Photogrammetric Method (입체사진을 이용한 원거리 면구조 측정)

  • Hwang Sang-Gi
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.15 no.2 s.42
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    • pp.201-212
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    • 2005
  • A photogrammetric camera system and a software have been built for capturing planned stereo images. To evaluate the system,25 planar data from a constructed rock slope were measured using both geological compass and photo system. Comparison of the data groups from both system showed matching relationship that falls within the error range of $5.25\pm4.53$ in strike and $3.18\pm3.17$ in dip angles, when the 2 standard deviation error distributions were considered. To evaluate the errors of the Photo matching and non planarity of the surface, orientations of the same plane were repeatedly measured 20times. These measurements showed error ranges of $8.2\pm3.4$in strike and $6.6\pm3.4$ in dip angle, considering the same error distributions. Measured strikes and dips were compared with the corresponding compass measurements in 5 constructed. slopes to test the system. Stereonet plots showed that the photo system measured data coincided well with the compass measurements. With these evaluations, the photo system can measure the planar structure in inaccessible locations with reliable accuracy at the same time reducing the data gathering period therefore resulting to an efficient geological survey.

Development of a Predictive Model for Groundwater Use (지하수 이용량 추정기법 개발)

  • 우남칠;조민조;김남종
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.297-309
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    • 1994
  • For a total of 210 city and Kun areas in Korea, a model was developed to predict the amount of groundwater use at each area. At first, the total areas were classified into 3 groups by the characteristics of groundwater use: residential(87), industrial(27) and agricultural (96) areas. Among them, type areas, represented by the dominant groundwater usage for typical purposes, were selected: residential(22), industrial(8) and agricultural(32) areas. Data for the various factors possibly related to the groundwater use were statistically analyzed. The factors include, 1) agricultural area, 2) industrial area, 3) adininistrative unit area(city or Kun), 4) population, 5) groundwater capadty for community water supply, 6) average water supply for a person per day, 7) agricultural water-use, 8) industrial water-use, 9) residential wateruse, 10) rates of community water supply. The data were correlated to the total amount of groundwater use, and the correlations tested at the 95% and 99% significance levels. Influential, significantly related, factors were identified from the tests. Using the multiple regression method with the influential factors, predictive equations were drawn to calculate the amount of groundwater use for residential-industrial and agricultural areas, respectively. The equations were calibrated to minimize the RMS(root mean square) of the differences between predicted and observed groundwater use. After the validation with future data, the model can be utilized in the regional development plans to predict the maximum groundwater demand at each area.

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A Case Study for Simulation of a Debris Flow with DEBRIS-2D at Inje, Korea (DEBRIS-2D를 이용한 인제지역 토석류 산사태 거동모사 사례 연구)

  • Chae, Byung-Gon;Liu, Ko-Fei;Kim, Man-Il
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.231-242
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    • 2010
  • In order to assess applicability of debris flow simulation on natural terrain in Korea, this study introduced the DEBRIS-2D program which had been developed by Liu and Huang (2006). For simulation of large debris flows composed of fine and coarse materials, DEBRIS-2D was developed using the constitutive relation proposed by Julien and Lan (1991). Based on the theory of DEBRIS-2D, this study selected a valley where a large debris flow was occurred on July 16th, 2006 at Deoksanri, Inje county, Korea. The simulation results show that all mass were already flowed into the stream at 10 minutes after starting. In 10minutes, the debris flow reached the first geological turn and an open area, resulting in slow velocity and changing its flow direction. After that, debris flow started accelerating again and it reached the village after 40 minutes. The maximum velocity is rather low between 1 m/sec and 2 m/sec. This is the reason why debris flow took 50 minutes to reach the village. The depth change of debris flow shows enormous effect of the valley shape. The simulated result is very similar to what happened in the field. It means that DEBRIS-2D program can be applied to the geologic and topographic conditions in Korea without large modification of analysis algorithm. However, it is necessary to determine optimal reference values of Korean geologic and topographic properties for more reliable simulation of debris flows.

Face Detection Using Adaboost and Template Matching of Depth Map based Block Rank Patterns (Adaboost와 깊이 맵 기반의 블록 순위 패턴의 템플릿 매칭을 이용한 얼굴검출)

  • Kim, Young-Gon;Park, Rae-Hong;Mun, Seong-Su
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.437-446
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    • 2012
  • A face detection algorithms using two-dimensional (2-D) intensity or color images have been studied for decades. Recently, with the development of low-cost range sensor, three-dimensional (3-D) information (i.e., depth image that represents the distance between a camera and objects) can be easily used to reliably extract facial features. Most people have a similar pattern of 3-D facial structure. This paper proposes a face detection method using intensity and depth images. At first, adaboost algorithm using intensity image classifies face and nonface candidate regions. Each candidate region is divided into $5{\times}5$ blocks and depth values are averaged in each block. Then, $5{\times}5$ block rank pattern is constructed by sorting block averages of depth values. Finally, candidate regions are classified as face and nonface regions by matching the constructed depth map based block rank patterns and a template pattern that is generated from training data set. For template matching, the $5{\times}5$ template block rank pattern is prior constructed by averaging block ranks using training data set. The proposed algorithm is tested on real images obtained by Kinect range sensor. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm effectively eliminates most false positives with true positives well preserved.