• Title/Summary/Keyword: 시차구조

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A Study on Forecasting Industrial Land Considering Leading Economic Variable Using ARIMA-X (선행경제변수를 고려한 산업용지 수요예측 방법 연구)

  • Byun, Tae-Geun;Jang, Cheol-Soon;Kim, Seok-Yun;Choi, Sung-Hwan;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.214-223
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to present a new industrial land demand prediction method that can consider external economic factors. The analysis model used ARIMA-X, which can consider exogenous variables. Exogenous variables are composed of macroeconomic variable, Business Survey Index, and Composite Economic Index variables to reflect the economic and industrial structure. And, among the exogenous variables, only variables that precede the supply of industrial land are used for prediction. Variables with precedence in the supply of industrial land were found to be import, private and government consumption expenditure, total capital formation, economic sentiment index, producer's shipment index, machinery for domestic demand and composite leading index. As a result of estimating the ARIMA-X model using these variables, the ARIMA-X(1,1,0) model including only the import was found to be statistically significant. The industrial land demand forecast predicted the industrial land from 2021 to 2030 by reflecting the scenario of change in import. As a result, the future demand for industrial land was predicted to increase by 1.91% annually to 1,030.79 km2. As a result of comparing these results with the existing exponential smoothing method, the results of this study were found to be more suitable than the existing models. It is expected to b available as a new industrial land forecasting model.

Error analysis of areal mean precipitation estimation using ground gauge precipitation and interpolation method (지점 강수량과 내삽기법을 이용한 면적평균 강수량 산정의 오차 분석)

  • Hwang, Seokhwan;Kang, Narae;Yoon, Jung Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.12
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    • pp.1053-1064
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    • 2022
  • The Thiessen method, which is the current area average precipitation method, has serious structural limitations in accurately calculating the average precipitation in the watershed. In addition to the observation accuracy of the precipitation meter, errors may occur in the area average precipitation calculation depending on the arrangement of the precipitation meter and the direction of the heavy rain. When the watershed is small and the station density is sparse, in both simulation and observation history, the Thiessen method showed a peculiar tendency that the average precipitation in the watershed continues to increase and decrease rapidly for 10 minutes before and after the peak. And the average precipitation in the Thiessen basin was different from the rainfall radar at the peak time. In the case where the watershed is small but the station density is relatively high, overall, the Thiessen method did not show a trend of sawtooth-shaped over-peak, and the time-dependent fluctuations were similar. However, there was a continuous time lag of about 10 minutes between the rainfall radar observations and the ground precipitation meter observations and the average precipitation in the basin. As a result of examining the ground correction effect of the rainfall radar watershed average precipitation, the correlation between the area average precipitation after correction is rather low compared to the area average precipitation before correction, indicating that the correction effect of the current rainfall radar ground correction algorithm is not high.

Thermal Performance Evaluation of Composite Phase Change Material Developed Through Sol-Gel Process (졸겔공법을 이용한 복합상변화물질의 열성능 평가)

  • Jin, Xinghan;Haider, Muhammad Zeeshan;Park, Min-Woo;Hu, Jong-Wan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.555-566
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    • 2023
  • In this study, a composite phase change material (CPCM) produced using the SOL-GEL technique was developed as a thermal energy storage medium for low-temperature applications. Tetradecane and activated carbon (AC) were used as the core and supporting materials, respectively. The tetradecane phase change material (PCM) was impregnated into the porous structure of AC using the vacuum impregnation method, and a thin layer of silica gel was coated on the prepared composite using the SOL-GEL process, where tetraethyl orthosilicate (TEOS) was used as the silica source. The thermal performance of the CPCM was analysed using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). DSC results showed that the pure tetradecane PCM had melting and freezing temperatures of 6.4℃ and 1.3℃ and corresponding enthalpies 226 J/g and 223.8 J/g, respectively. The CPCM exhibited enthalpy of 32.98 J/g and 27.7 J/g during the melting and freezing processes at 7.1℃ and 2.4℃, respectively. TGA test results revealed that the AC is thermally stable up to 500℃, which is much higher than the decomposition temperature of the pure tetradecane, which is around 120℃. Moreover, in the case of AC-PCM and CPCM thermal degradation started at 80℃ and 100℃, respectively. The chemical stability of the CPCM was studied using Fourier-transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy, and the results confirmed that the developed composite is chemically stable. Finally, the surface morphology of the AC and CPCM was analysed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), which confirmed the presence of a thin layer of silica gel on the AC surface after the SOL-GEL process.

Systemic literature review on the impact of government financial support on innovation in private firms (정부의 기술혁신 재정지원 정책효과에 대한 체계적 문헌연구)

  • Ahn, Joon Mo
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.57-104
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    • 2022
  • The government has supported the innovation of private firms by intervening the market for various purposes, such as preventing market failure, alleviating information asymmetry, and allocating resources efficiently. Although the government's R&D budget increased rapidly in the 2000s, it is not clear whether the government intervention has made desirable impact on the market. To address this, the current study attempts to explore this issue by doing a systematic literature review on foreign and domestic papers in an integrated way. In total, 168 studies are analyzed using contents analysis approach and various lens, such as policy additionality, policy tools, firm size, unit of analysis, data and method, are adopted for analysis. Overlapping policy target, time lag between government intervention and policy effects, non-linearity of financial supports, interference between different polices, and out-dated R&D tax incentive system are reported as factors hampering the effect of the government intervention. Many policy prescriptions, such as program evaluation indices reflecting behavioral additionality, an introduction of policy mix and evidence-based policy using machine learning, are suggested to improve these hurdles.

Construction of Consumer Confidence index based on Sentiment analysis using News articles (뉴스기사를 이용한 소비자의 경기심리지수 생성)

  • Song, Minchae;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 2017
  • It is known that the economic sentiment index and macroeconomic indicators are closely related because economic agent's judgment and forecast of the business conditions affect economic fluctuations. For this reason, consumer sentiment or confidence provides steady fodder for business and is treated as an important piece of economic information. In Korea, private consumption accounts and consumer sentiment index highly relevant for both, which is a very important economic indicator for evaluating and forecasting the domestic economic situation. However, despite offering relevant insights into private consumption and GDP, the traditional approach to measuring the consumer confidence based on the survey has several limits. One possible weakness is that it takes considerable time to research, collect, and aggregate the data. If certain urgent issues arise, timely information will not be announced until the end of each month. In addition, the survey only contains information derived from questionnaire items, which means it can be difficult to catch up to the direct effects of newly arising issues. The survey also faces potential declines in response rates and erroneous responses. Therefore, it is necessary to find a way to complement it. For this purpose, we construct and assess an index designed to measure consumer economic sentiment index using sentiment analysis. Unlike the survey-based measures, our index relies on textual analysis to extract sentiment from economic and financial news articles. In particular, text data such as news articles and SNS are timely and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. There exist two main approaches to the automatic extraction of sentiment from a text, we apply the lexicon-based approach, using sentiment lexicon dictionaries of words annotated with the semantic orientations. In creating the sentiment lexicon dictionaries, we enter the semantic orientation of individual words manually, though we do not attempt a full linguistic analysis (one that involves analysis of word senses or argument structure); this is the limitation of our research and further work in that direction remains possible. In this study, we generate a time series index of economic sentiment in the news. The construction of the index consists of three broad steps: (1) Collecting a large corpus of economic news articles on the web, (2) Applying lexicon-based methods for sentiment analysis of each article to score the article in terms of sentiment orientation (positive, negative and neutral), and (3) Constructing an economic sentiment index of consumers by aggregating monthly time series for each sentiment word. In line with existing scholarly assessments of the relationship between the consumer confidence index and macroeconomic indicators, any new index should be assessed for its usefulness. We examine the new index's usefulness by comparing other economic indicators to the CSI. To check the usefulness of the newly index based on sentiment analysis, trend and cross - correlation analysis are carried out to analyze the relations and lagged structure. Finally, we analyze the forecasting power using the one step ahead of out of sample prediction. As a result, the news sentiment index correlates strongly with related contemporaneous key indicators in almost all experiments. We also find that news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity in most cases. In almost all experiments, the news sentiment index strongly correlates with related contemporaneous key indicators. Furthermore, in most cases, news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity; in head-to-head comparisons, the news sentiment measures outperform survey-based sentiment index as CSI. Policy makers want to understand consumer or public opinions about existing or proposed policies. Such opinions enable relevant government decision-makers to respond quickly to monitor various web media, SNS, or news articles. Textual data, such as news articles and social networks (Twitter, Facebook and blogs) are generated at high-speeds and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. Although research using unstructured data in economic analysis is in its early stages, but the utilization of data is expected to greatly increase once its usefulness is confirmed.

Studies on the Physical Properties of Major Tree Barks Grown in Korea -Genus Pinus, Populus and Quercus- (한국산(韓國産) 주요(主要) 수종(樹種) 수피(樹皮)의 이학적(理學的) 성질(性質)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究) -소나무속(屬), 사시나무속(屬), 참나무속(屬)을 중심(中心)으로-)

  • Lee, Hwa Hyoung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.33-58
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    • 1977
  • A bark comprises about 10 to 20 percents of a typical log by volume, and is generally considered as an unwanted residue rather than a potentially valuable resourses. As the world has been confronted with decreasing forest resources, natural resources pressure dictate that a bark should be a raw material instead of a waste. The utilization of the largely wasted bark of genus Pinus, Quercus, and Populus grown in Korea can be enhanced by learning its physical and mechanical properties. However, the study of tree bark grown in Korea have never been undertaken. In the present paper, an investigative study is carried out on the bark of three genus, eleven species representing not only the major bark trees but major species currently grown in Korea. For each species 20 trees were selected, at Suweon and Kwang-neung areas, on the same basis of the diameter class at the proper harvesting age. One $200cm^2$ segment of bark was obtained from each tree at brest height. Physical properties of bark studied are: bark density, moisture content of green bark (inner-, outer-, and total-bark), fiber saturation point, hysteresis loop, shrinkage, water absorption, specific heat, heat of wetting, thermal conductivity, thermal diffusivity, heat of combustion, and differential thermal analysis. The mechanical properties are studied on bending and compression strength (radial, longitudinal, and tangential). The results may be summarized as follows: 1. The oven-dry specific gravities differ between wood and bark, further more even for a given bark sample, the difference is obersved between inner and outer bark. 2. The oven-dry specific gravity of bark is higher than that of wood. This fact is attributed to the anatomical structure whose characters are manifested by higher content of sieve fiber and sclereids. 3. Except Pinus koraiensis, the oven-dry specific gravity of inner bark is higher than that of outer bark, which results from higher shrinkage of inner bark. 4. The moisture content of bark increases with direct proportion to the composition ratio of sieve components and decreases with higher percent of sclerenchyma and periderm tissues. 5. The possibility of determining fiber saturation point is suggested by the measuring the heat of wetting. With the proposed method, the fiber saturation point of Pinus densiflora lies between 26 and 28%, that of Quercus accutissima ranges from 24 to 28%. These results need be further examined by other methods. 6. Contrary to the behavior of wood, the bark shrinkage is the highest in radial direction and the lowest in longitudinal direction. Quercus serrata and Q. variabilis do not fall in this category. 7. Bark shows the same specific heat as wood, but the heat of wetting of bark is higher than that of wood. In heat conductivity, bark is lower than wood. From the measures of oven-dry specific gravity (${\rho}d$) and moisture fraction specific gravity (${\rho}m$) is devised the following regression equation upon which heat conductivity can be calculated. The calculated heat conductivity of bark is between $0.8{\times}10^{-4}$ and $1.6{\times}10^{-4}cal/cm-sec-deg$. $$K=4.631+11.408{\rho}d+7.628{\rho}m$$ 8. The bark heat diffusivity varies from $8.03{\times}10^{-4}$ to $4.46{\times}10^{-4}cm^2/sec$. From differential thermal analysis, wood shows a higher thermogram than bark under ignition point, but the tendency is reversed above ignition point. 9. The modulus of rupture for static bending strength of bark is proportional to the density of bark which in turn gives the following regression equation. M=243.78X-12.02 The compressive strength of bark is the highest in radial direction, contrary to the behavior of wood, and the compressive strength of longitudinal direction follows the tangential one in decreasing order.

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Chimooite, a New Mineral from Dongnam Mine, Korea (동남광산에서 발견된 신종광물 Zn­란시아이트(치무석))

  • 최헌수;김수진
    • Journal of the Mineralogical Society of Korea
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.333-339
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    • 2003
  • A new mineral, Zn analogue of rancieite (Chimooite), has been discovered at the Dongnam mine, Korea. It occurs as compact subparallel fine­grained flaky or acicular aggregates in the massive manganese oxide ores which were formed by supergene oxidation of rhodochrosite­sulfide ores in the hydrothermal veins trending NS­N25E and cutting the Pungchon limestone of the Cambrian age. The flakes of chimooite are 0.2 mm for the largest one, but usually less than 0.05 mm. The acicular crystals are elongated parallel to and flattened on (001). This mineral shows gradation to rancieite constituting its marginal part, thus both minerals are found in one and the same flake. Color is bluish black, with dull luster and brown streak in globular or massive aggregates. Cleavage is perfect in one direction. The hardness ranges from 2.5 to 4. Under reflected light it is anisotropic and bireflectant. It shows reddish brown internal reflection. Chemical analyses of different parts of both minerals suggest that rancieite and chimooite constitute a continuous solid solution series by cationic substitution. The empirical chemical formula for chimooite has been calculated following the general formula, $R_2_{x}$ M $n^{4+}$$_{9­x}$ $O_{18}$ $.$n$H_2O$ for the 7 $\AA$ phyllomanganate minerals, where x varies from 0.81 to 1.28 in so far studied samples, thus averaging to 1.0. Therefore, the formula of Zn­rancieite is close to the well­known strochiometric formula $_Mn_4^{4+}$ $O_{9}$ $.$4$H_2O$. The mineral has the formula (Z $n_{0.78}$N $a_{0.15}$C $a_{0.08}$M $g_{0.01}$ $K_{0.01}$)(M $n^{4+}$$_{3.98}$F $e^{3+}$$_{0.02}$)$_{4.00}$ $O_{9}$ $.$3.85$H_2O$, thus the ideal formula is (Zn,Ca)M $n^{4+}$$_4$ $O_{9}$ $.$3.85$H_2O$. The mineral has a hexagonal unit ceil with a=2.840 $\AA$ c=7.486 $\AA$ and a : c = 1 : 2.636. The DTA curve shows endothermic peaks at 65, 180, 690 and 102$0^{\circ}C$. The IR absorption spectrum shows absorption bands at 445, 500, 1630 and 3400 c $m^{1}$. The mineral name Chimooite has been named in honour of late Prof, Chi Moo Son of Seoul National University.ity.versity.ity.y.

Voltammetric Sensor Incorporated with Conductive Polymer, Tyrosinase, and Ionic Liquid Electrolyte for Bisphenol F (전도성고분자, 티로시나아제 효소 및 이온성 액체 전해질을 융합한 전압전류법 기반의 비스페놀F 검출 센서)

  • Sung Eun Ji;Sang Hyuk Lee;Hye Jin Lee
    • Applied Chemistry for Engineering
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.258-263
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    • 2023
  • In this study, conductive polymers and the enzyme tyrosinase (Tyr) were deposited on the surface of a screen printed carbon electrode (SPCE), which can be fabricated as a disposable sensor chip, and applied to the detection of bisphenol F (BPF), an endocrine disruptor with proven links to male diseases and thyroid disorders, using electrochemical methods. On the surface of the SPCE working electrode, which was negatively charged by oxygen plasma treatment, a positively charged conductive polymer, poly(diallyldimethyl ammonium chloride) (PDDA), a negatively charged polymer compound, poly(sodium 4-styrenesulfonate) (PSS), and another layer of PDDA were layered by electrostatic attraction in the order of PDDA, PSS, and finally PDDA. Then, a layer of Tyr, which was negatively charged due to pH adjustment to 7.0, was added to create a PDDA-PSS-PDDA-Tyr sensor for BPF. When the electrode sensor is exposed to a BPF solution, which is the substrate and target analyte, 4,4'-methylenebis(cyclohexa-3,5-diene-1,2-dione) is generated by an oxidation reaction with the Tyr enzyme on the electrode surface. The reduction process of the product at 0.1 V (vs. Ag/AgCl) generating 4,4'-methylenebis(benzene-1,2-diol) was measured using cyclic and differential pulse voltammetries, resulting in a change in the peak current with respect to the concentration of BPF. In addition, we compared the detection performance of BPF using an ionic liquid electrolyte as an alternative to phosphate-buffered saline, which has been used in many previous sensing studies. Furthermore, the selectivity of bisphenol S, which acts as an interfering substance with a similar structure to BPF, was investigated. Finally, we demonstrated the practical applicability of the sensor by applying it to analyze the concentration of BPF in real samples prepared in the laboratory.

The Impacts of Chinese Seaborne Trade Volume on The World Economy (중국 품목별 수출입이 세계 경제에 미치는 영향 실증분석)

  • Ahn, Young-Gyun;Lee, Min-Kyu
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.111-129
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    • 2017
  • According to the World Bank statistics, China's contribution to global economic growth during the year of 2013-2016 was estimated at 31.6 percent. This figure is even larger than 29.0 percent, the contribution by summing each contribution of the United States, EU and Japan. The Chinese commodity trade accounts for up to 11.5 percent of world trade volume. Thus, we can consider that the Chinese economy has a strong influence on the global economy. The primary purpose of this study is to analyze the contribution level of Chinese seaborne trade volume on world economy. First, this study conducted a time-lag analysis using Moran test, so we can find that China's level of contribution to global economic growth varies from time to time. The contribution of the first phase (1999-2007) was nearly three times higher than the contributions from the second phase (2008-2016), suggesting that the overall contraction of the global trade volume starting from the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 has continued until recently and recovery has not even occurred. Second, using the econometrics model, this study conducted an regression analysis of the impact of Chinese imports and exports in chemicals, grain, steel, crude oil, and container on global economic growth. Fixed effects model with time series data has been applied to examine the effect of Chinese seaborne trade volume on global economic growth. According to the empirical analysis of this study, China's exports of steel products, exports of container, imports of containers, imports of crude oil and imports of grain have significant contributions to global economic growth. Estimates of China's exports of steel products, exports of container, imports of containers, imports of crude oil and imports of grain are 1.023, 1.020, 1.019, 1.007 and 1.006, respectively. For example, the estimated value 1.023 of China's exports of steel products means that the growth rate can be 1.023 times higher than the current world GDP growth rate if Chinese seaborne trade volume of exports of steel products increased by one unit (one million tons). This study concludes that the expansion of China's imports and exports should be realized first to increase the global GDP growth rate. The expansion of Chinese trade can lead to a simultaneous stimulus of production and consumption in China, which can even lead to global economic growth ultimately. Thus, depending on how much China's trade will be broaden in the future, the width of global economic growth can be determined.

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Janggunite, a New Mineral from the Janggun Mine, Bonghwa, Korea (경북(慶北) 봉화군(奉化郡) 장군광산산(將軍鑛山産) 신종광물(新種鑛物) 장군석(將軍石)에 대(對)한 광물학적(鑛物學的) 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Soo Jin
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.117-124
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    • 1975
  • Wet chemical analysis (for $MnO_2$, MnO, and $H_2O$(+)) and electron microprobe analysis (for $Fe_2O_3$ and PbO) give $MnO_2$ 74.91, MnO 11.33, $Fe_2O_3$ (total Fe) 4.19, PbO 0.03, $H_2O$ (+) 9.46, sum 99.92%. 'Available oxygen determined by oxalate titration method is allotted to $MnO_2$ from total Mn, and the remaining Mn is calculated as MnO. Traces of Ba, Ca, Mg, K, Cu, Zn, and Al were found. Li and Na were not found. The existence of (OH) is verified from the infrared absorption spectra. The analysis corresponds to the formula $Mn^{4+}{_{4.85}}(Mn^{2+}{_{0.90}}Fe^{3+}{_{0.30}})_{1.20}O_{8.09}(OH)_{5.91}$, on the basis of O=14, 'or ideally $Mn^{4+}{_{5-x}}(Mn^{2+},Fe^{3+})_{1+x}O_{8}(OH)_{6}$ ($x{\approx}0.2$). X-ray single crystal study could not be made because of the distortion of single crystals. But the x-ray powder pattern is satisfactorily indexed by an orthorhombic cell with a 9.324, b 14.05, c $7.956{\AA}$., Z=4. The indexed powder diffraction lines are 9.34(s) (100), 7.09(s) (020), 4.62(m) (200, 121), 4.17(m) (130), 3.547(s) (112), 3.212(vw) (041), 3.101(s) (300), 2.597(w) (013), 2.469(m) (331), 2.214(vw)(420), 2.098(vw) (260), 2.014 (vw) (402), 1.863(w) (500), 1.664(w) (314), 1.554(vw) (600), 1.525(m) (601), 1.405(m) (0.10.0). DTA curve shows the endothermic peaks at $250-370^{\circ}C$ and $955^{\circ}C$. The former is due to the dehydration: and oxidation forming$(Mn,\;Fe)_2O_3$(cubic, a $9.417{\AA}$), and the latter is interpreted as the formation of a hausmannite-type oxide (tetragonal, a 5.76, c $9.51{\AA}$) from $(Mn,\;Fe)_2O_3$. Infrared absorption spectral curve shows Mn-O stretching vibrations at $515cm^{-1}$ and $545cm^{-1}$, O-H bending vibration at $1025cm^{-1}$ and O-H stretching vibration at $3225cm^{-1}$. Opaque. Reflectance 13-15%. Bireflectance distinct in air and strong in oil. Reflection pleochroism changes from whitish to light grey. Between crossed nicols, color changes from yellowish brown with bluish tint to grey in air and yellowish brown to grey through bluish brown in oil. No internal reflections. Etching reactions: HCl(conc.) and $H_2SO_4+H_2O_2$-grey tarnish; $SnCl_2$(sat.)-dark color; $HNO_3$(conc.)-grey color; $H_2O_2$-tarnish with effervescence. It is black in color. Luster dull. Cleavage one direction perfect. Streak brownish black to dark brown. H. (Mohs) 2-3, very fragile. Specific gravity 3.59(obs.), 3.57(calc.). It occurs as radiating groups of flakes, flower-like aggregates, colloform bands, dendritic or arborescent masses composed of fine grains in the cementation zone of the supergene manganese oxide deposits of the Janggun mine, Bonghwa-gun, southeastern Korea. Associated minerals are calcite, nsutite, todorokite, and some undetermined manganese dioxide minerals. The name is for the mine, the first locality. The mineral and name were approved before publication by the Commission on New Minerals and Mineral Names, I.M.A.

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