• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.229-263
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• 2019

The Korean fertility rate has been declining rapidly since 2000 with the fertility rate among provinces following a uniform tendency. In particular, the province-specific fertility rate is an essential tool for local governments to prepare local policies for low fertility aging policy, education and welfare policies. However, there is limitation on how to reflect different trends on the province-specific fertility rate because the KOSTAT's (2017) province-specific fertility rate projection estimates information use the national average birth rate date of vital statistics for the last 10 years (5 years). In this study, we propose an improvement plan that simultaneously considers important stable pattern maintenance and provincial fertility rate differentiation for an annual birth rate estimation. The method proposed in this study (proposal 1 and 2) can reflect birth rate changes from past to present and national and provincial differences by age that use time series data of the annual fertility rate. Proposal 3 also reflects the unique fertility rate trend from the past to the present by age according to province regardless of the relationship with the national trend. Therefore, it is preferable to use a relationship to the national rate when predicting the birth rate, as in proposals 1 and 2 because the national and the provincial fertility rate pattern are similar. These proposals show improved stability in terms of age-specific fertility rates.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.75-98
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• 2021

This paper compares three statistical models that examine the relationship between national and provincespecific fertility rates. The three models are two of the regression models and a cointegration model. The regression model is by substituting Gompit transformation for the cumulative fertility rate by the average for ten years, and this model applies the raw data without transformation of the fertility data. A cointegration model can be considered when fitting the unstable time series of fertility rate in probability process. This paper proposes the following when it is intended to derive the relation of non-stationary fertility rate between the national and provinces. The cointegrated relationship between national and regional fertility rates is first derived. Furthermore, if this relationship is not significant, it is proposed to look at the national and regional fertility rate relationships with a regression model approach using raw data without transformation. Also, the regression model method of substituting Gompit transformation data resulted in an overestimation of fertility rates compared to other methods. Finally, Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon and Gyeonggi province are expected to show a total fertility rate of 1.0 or less from 2025 to 2030, so an urgent and efficient policy to raise this level is needed.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.16 no.8
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• pp.59-70
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• 2016

This study aimed to find effective policies to cope with low birth rate in local authorities. It was analyzed the variables-a number of child-care facilities, paid parental leave, labor force participation, and total working hours-using panel analysis from 2005 to 2014. The results were as follows. First, after testing the whole years, we found that the fittest model was the fixed-effects model of 2 models(fixed-effects model, random effects model). A number of child-care facilities had positive effects, and a number of child-care facilities, and total working hours in women influenced negative effects on total fertility rate. Second, during the former time and the period of plan for low birth rate and aging society, a number of child-care facilities influenced negative effects on total fertility rate. Third, a number of child-care facilities had negative effects on total fertility rate in Busan, Daegu, and Kwangju. Paid parental leave influenced positively on total fertility rate in 5 cities and a province. Women's total working hours were a significant variable of total fertility rate in Jeju. This study found that the variables which influenced on total fertility rate were different by local authorities, and a number of child-care facilities and paid parental leave were very important variables on total fertility rate.

• Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.300-305
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• 2005

As the current level of birth rate of Korea has dramatically declined, it is obvious that pediatric dentistry will also be affected by this change. This study was performed for the purpose of understanding on the current fertility levels of Korea. The formal data on the number of live births(NLB), crude birth rate(CBR), and total fertility rate(TFR) published annually from the National Statistical Office of Korea from 1992 to 2000 were used as materials for this study. The TFR values from 1990 to 2002 of Korea were compared with those of some western countries with similar history of decreased birth and the CBR values of the metropolitan cities and the capital city Seoul in 2003 were compared domestically, yielding to results as follows. 1. Recent birth rate of Korea was decreased continuously. NLB was about 490,000 CBR was 10.2 and TFR was 1.19. 2. TFR of Korea in 2002 was 1.17, the lowest in the world. 3. There was a large difference in the NLB and CBR between local prefectures and towns of Seoul domestically. Additional population studies and medico-economical studies to exactly predict the demands of pediatric dentistry and proper supplies of manpower in the future was thought urgently required.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.59-85
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• 2009

본 연구는 최근 인구학에서 공간적 접근을 시도하는 논의들이 활발해지는 경향과 함께 지역 적합적 저출산 대응정책의 필요성의 대두라는 정책적 수요에 부합하고자 자녀출산계획에 있어 지역의 공간적 효과가 미치는 효과를 분석하였다. 또한, 기혼여성의 연령, 출산한 자녀의 수가 자녀를 출산할 계획을 가질 확률에 대한 비선형적 효과를 실증적으로 분석하였다. 다층모형과 같이 최근 지역연구에서 이용되고 있는 실증분석방법들의 한계점을 살펴보고, 그 대안으로 Geo-Additive Model을 적용하였다. 동 방법론은 한 모형 내에서 공간의 구조적 효과와 비구조적 효과, 연속형 변인의 비선형효과 등을 동시에 추정할 수 있다. 이를 위한 분석자료로 통계청의 2005년도 인구주택총조사의 마이크로데이터 중 2% B형 자료를 이용하였다. 분석결과 기혼여성이 자녀를 출산할 계획을 가질 확률에 기혼여성의 연령과 출산한 자녀의 수는 비선형적 효과를 주었으며, 특히 각 개인들은 현재의 출산 상태에서 자녀 한명을 추가로 출산하는 것이 동일한 부담으로 작용하지 않음을 알 수 있었다. 이를 통해 기혼여성들의 첫출산 시점이 결혼연령에 따라 차이가 있고 결혼코호트에 따라 다르더라도 첫출산 자체가 여전히 보편적인 현상이라는 가정을 받아들인다면, 출산율 제고를 위한 정책의 대상은 첫째아를 이미 출산한 여성들이 되어야 할 것으로 보인다. 또한, 자녀를 출산할 계획을 가질 확률에 지역의 구조적 공간효과가 유의미한 영향을 주는 것으로 분석되었다. 지역별 합계출산율의 공간 자기상관분석 결과와 비교해 본 결과 출산계획의 구조적 공간효과가 양의 효과를 미치는 지역에서는 실제 출산행위인 합계출산율도 높지만, 구조적 공간효과가 부적인 효과를 가지고 있는 지역에서는 합계출산율도 낮게 나타남을 알 수 있었다. 따라서 각 지방자치단체에서는 지자체들의 정책수요나 자원 및 재정의 부담능력 등 지역별 차이를 고려하지 않은 일률적인 정책의 추진을 지양하고, 지역 특수성을 고려하여 지역에 적합한 출산정책을 추진해야 할 것이다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.1175-1188
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• 2015

The Ministry of Education of Korea announced the university structural reform plans which reduces 160,000 of the university entrance quota during 10 years from January 2014. Because the reduction plans of entrance quota influence regional economy as well as students and universities, naive evidence of the Ministry of Education of Korea is disappointed. In this research, we forecast the total number of the university entrance exam candidate by 2032 including not only third grade high school students but also repeaters according to the 16 metropolises and provinces in Korea. We also forecast the regional university recruiting rate using the forecasts of the total number of the university entrance exam candidates. However, we can not make more realistic results because we can not apply the inter-regional movement of students to the forecast. In order to handle this limitation, we first estimated the rank of the whole 7,277 departments of all universities in Korea and assigned the quotas according to the estimated rank for each departments and then we calculated the local university recruiting rate. The estimated the university recruiting rates of 16 metropolises and provinces can provide more noticeable results of characteristics and problems than that of nationwide.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.159-178
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• 2011

Korea has been widely recognized as the most successful country for reversal of the rise in sex ratio at birth (from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s) in a short period of time. However, unusually high sex ratios at birth are still observed in most regions as parity increases. Given that imbalanced sex ratios at high birth orders are mostly due to son-selective abortion, it still remains questionable whether son-selective reproductive behavior has vanished in Korea. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the pattern of changing trends and socioeconomic differentials in sex ratio at birth. Micro-data from birth registration for 2009 are utilized. Attention is focused on analyzing sex ratios at birth in Youngnam region according to age of mother, parity, educational attainment of parents, and occupation of parents. A series of simulations are also conducted in this paper to show how prenatal sex screening and son-selective abortion have affected the level of sex ratio at birth for years 1994, 2005 and 2009.

• Neonatal Medicine
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.70-75
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• 2011

Purpose: Recently, the incidence of preterm and low birth weight infants (LBWI) is increasing, even though the birth rate is continuously low in Korea. Despite that change, there continues to be a deficit of beds in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). This study is based on the 2009 Korean Statistical Information Service that examined the development of a Korean NICU service and the survival rate of preterm infants by regionally analyzing the rate of total live births, preterm infants, LBWI, and NICU beds in Korea. Methods: Data were obtained from the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service and Korean Statistical Information Service. We confirmed the regional total live birth rate, number of LBWI, and preterm infants and NICU numbers, and all of the results were compared to the average value to determine deficient areas of NICU beds. Results: There were 25,374 (5.7%) preterm infants and 21,954 (4.9%) LBWI in the total number of live births (444,849) in 2009, and regions of high proportion compared to the mean value were Busan, Daegu, and Ulsan. Total NICU beds totaled 1,284, and regions of high rates preterm infants and LBWI per 1 NICU bed compared to the mean value were Incheon, Daegu, Ulsan, etc. The NICU holding rate was 87.5% (1,284/1,468), which was increased from 2005. However, there were still shortages of 184 NICU beds (12.5%), especially in Gyeonggi-do, which lacked 157 beds. Conclusion: High risk neonates difficult to transfer, and they need immediate and continuous treatment. As a result, a foundation of well-balanced, national NICU regionalization is necessary. This study suggested that more NICU facilities must be implemented, and clinicians should realize the continuing deficiency of NICU beds in cities and provinces.