• Title/Summary/Keyword: 시나리오 기법

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Hydraulic Stability Examination of Rainwater Reservoir Pipe Network System on Various Inflow Conditions (유입량 변화에 따른 도심지 내 우수저류조 관망시스템의 안정성 검토)

  • Yoo, Hyung Ju;Kim, Dong Hyun;Maeng, Seung Jin;Lee, Seung Oh
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2019
  • Recently, as the occurrence frequency of sudden floods due to climate change increased, it is necessary to install the facilities that can cope with the initial stormwater. Most researches have been conducted on the design of facilities applying the Low Impact Development (LID) and the reduction effect on rainfall runoff to examine with 1D or 2D numerical models. However, the studies on the examination about flow characteristics and stability of pipe network systems were relatively insufficient in the literature. In this study, the stability of the pipe network system in rainwater storage tank was examined by using 3D numerical model, FLOW-3D. The changes of velocity and dynamic pressure were examined according to the number of rainwater storage tank and compared with the design criteria to derive the optimal design plan for a rainwater storage tank. As a results of numerical simulation with the design values in the previous study, it was confirmed that the velocity became increased as the number of rainwater storage tank increased. And magnitude of the velocity in pipes was formed within the design criteria. However, the velocity in the additional rainwater storage pipe was about 3.44 m/s exceeding the allowable range of the design criteria, when three or more additional rainwater storage tanks were installed. In the case of turbulence intensity and bottom shear stress, the bottom shear stress was larger than the critical shear stress as the additional rainwater storage was increased. So, the deposition of sediment was unlikely to occur, but it should be considered that the floc was formed by the reduction of the turbulence intensity. In addition, the dynamic pressure was also satisfied with the design criteria when the results were compared with the allowable internal pressure of the pipes generally used in the design of rainwater storage tank. Based on these results, it was suitable to install up to two additional rainwater storage tanks because the drainage becomes well when increasing of the number of storage tank and the velocity in the pipe becomes faster to be vulnerable to damage the pipe. However, this study has a assumption about the specifications of the rainwater storage tanks and the inflow of stormwater and has a limitation such that deriving the suitable rainwater storage tank design by simply adding the storage tank. Therefore, the various storage tank types and stormwater inflow scenarios will be asked to derive more efficient design plans in the future.

An Outlook on Cereal Grains Production in South Korea Based on Crop Growth Simulation under the RCP8.5 Climate Change Scenarios (RCP8.5 기후조건의 작물생육모의에 근거한 우리나라 곡물생산 전망)

  • Kim, Dae-Jun;Kim, Soo-Ock;Moon, Kyung-Hwan;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.132-141
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    • 2012
  • Climate change impact assessment of cereal crop production in South Korea was performed using land attributes and daily weather data at a farm scale as inputs to crop models. Farmlands in South Korea were grouped into 68 crop-simulation zone units (CZU) based on major mountains and rivers as well as existing land use information. Daily weather data at a 1-km grid spacing under the A1B- and RCP8.5 scenarios were generated stochastically to obtain decadal mean of daily data. These data were registered to the farmland grid cells and spatially averaged to represent climate conditions in each CZU. Monthly climate data for each decade in 2001~2100 were transformed to 30 sets of daily weather data for each CZU by using a stochastic weather generator. Soil data and crop management information for 68 CZU were used as inputs to the CERES-rice, CERE-barley and CROPGRO-soybean models calibrated to represent the genetic features of major domestic cultivars in South Korea. Results from the models suggested that the heading or flowering of rice, winter barley and soybean could be accelerated in the future. The grain-fill period of winter barley could be extended, resulting in much higher yield of winter barley in most CZUs than that of rice. Among the three major cereal grain crops in Korea, rice seems most vulnerable to negative impact of climate change, while little impact of climate change is expected on soybeans. Because a positive effect of climate change is projected for winter barley, policy in agricultural production should pay more attention to facilitate winter barley production as an adaptation strategy for the national food security.

Assessment of the Contribution of Weather, Vegetation and Land Use Change for Agricultural Reservoir and Stream Watershed using the SLURP model (II) - Calibration, Validation and Application of the Model - (SLURP 모형을 이용한 기후, 식생, 토지이용변화가 농업용 저수지 유역과 하천유역에 미치는 기여도 평가(II) - 모형의 검·보정 및 적용 -)

  • Park, Geun-Ae;Ahn, So-Ra;Park, Min-Ji;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.2B
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    • pp.121-135
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    • 2010
  • This study is to assess the effect of potential future climate change on the inflow of agricultural reservoir and its impact to downstream streamflow by reservoir operation for paddy irrigation water supply using the SLURP. Before the future analysis, the SLURP model was calibrated using the 6 years daily streamflow records (1998-200398 and validated using 3 years streamflow data (2004-200698 for a 366.5 $km^2$ watershed including two agricultural reservoirs (Geumgwang8 and Gosam98located in Anseongcheon watershed. The calibration and validation results showed that the model was able to simulate the daily streamflow well considering the reservoir operation for paddy irrigation and flood discharge, with a coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranging from s 7 to s 9 and 0.5 to s 8 respectively. Then, the future potential climate change impact was assessed using the future wthe fu data was downscaled by nge impFactor method throuih bias-correction, the future land uses wtre predicted by modified CA-Markov technique, and the future ve potentiacovfu information was predicted and considered by the linear regression bpowten mecthly NDVI from NOAA AVHRR ima ps and mecthly mean temperature. The future (2020s, 2050s and 2e 0s) reservoir inflow, the temporal changes of reservoir storaimpand its impact to downstream streamflow watershed wtre analyzed for the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios based on a base year (2005). At an annual temporal scale, the reservoir inflow and storaimpchange oue, anagricultural reservoir wtre projected to big decrease innautumnnunder all possiblmpcombinations of conditions. The future streamflow, soossmoosture and grounwater recharge decreased slightly, whtre as the evapotransporation was projected to increase largely for all possiblmpcombinations of the conditions. At last, this study was analysed contribution of weather, vegetation and land use change to assess which factor biggest impact on agricultural reservoir and stream watershed. As a result, weather change biggest impact on agricultural reservoir inflow, storage, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and groundwater recharge.

User Gestures as a Voluntary Action in Products Design - Focused on a Gesture Discovered in User Positive Action to Transform Products (제품디자인에 있어서 자발적 행위로의 유저제스처 -사용자의 긍정적 제품변형행위에 관한 제스처를 중심으로-)

  • 진선태;우흥룡
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.95-104
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    • 2004
  • Creativity is a important keyword for users as well as for main design organization who needs it. But little attention has been given to the aspect of user's creativity, also there has been a few attempt to apply it into design development until now. Nowadays in design areas, user's experiences and actions are changing the passive states receiving meanings into the active states creating meanings voluntarily. It is resonable to suppose that creative stage is important for users and they have the possibility of new ideas of uses and creating new productions. User's experiences of objects includes that of being formed or supported previously and that of voluntary interpretations acquired for himself, which it may be the possibilities predicted in design process or unknown user's action areas. It is likely that creative use process by themselves are the actions applied and deviated from usability and function by main design organization, also creative productions are arranged and made by users. These have a scope of examination and research in probability that is occurs frequently in user. In this research, approaching with a term, 'User gestures', User gestures are the characteristic action areas based on user's voluntary behaviors, where are revealed a unessential and non-operational function as a action itself and various transformation and creation of products as a outcome of action. This fact proves clearly that user gestures have a worth of alive spectrum to observe aspects of user culture and could be a attractive approach to seek easily new design concept for designer and developer. A further direction of this study will be following areas, Ethnography methods research of user gestures, Cultural research to phenomenon of user design and UGSBD(User gesture scenario based design) research. And it seems probable that they are applied in design development as follows, User initiative customization products, User participatory recycling products and creativity-experience design.

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Mobility and Safety Evaluation Methodology for the Locations of Hi-PASS Lanes Using a Microscopic Traffic Simulation Tool (미시교통시뮬레이션모형을 이용한 하이패스 차로 위치별 이동성 및 안전성 평가방법 연구)

  • Yun, Ilsoo;Han, Eum;Lee, Cheol-Ki;Rho, Jeong Hyun;Lee, Soojin;Kim, Sang Byum
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.98-108
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    • 2013
  • The number of Hi-Pass lanes became 793 lanes at 316 expressway tollgates in 2011 due to the increase in the Hi-Pass use. In spite of the increase in the number of Hi-Pass lanes, there have been increased potential risks in tollgates where vehicles using a Hi-Pass lane must weave with other vehicles using a TCS lane. Therefore, there is a need for study on the safety in tollgates. To this end, this study aims at developing a methodology to evaluate the performance measures of diverse location countermeasures of Hi-Pass lanes in an efficient and systematic way. This study measured the mobility, safety and the convenience of installation and operation of Hi-Pass lanes using a microscopic traffic simulation tool, the surrogate safety assessment model and survey. In addition, this study aggregated the above three performance indexes using weight factors estimated using the AHP technique. For the test site, Dongsuwon interchange was selected. After building the microscopic traffic simulation model for the test site, the location countermeasures of Hi-Pass lanes applicable to the test site were compared with each other in terms of the mobility, safety and installing and operating convenience. As a result, there has been no apparent difference in mobility index based on delays. However, the countermeasures where Hi-Pass lanes are located in inside lanes generally showed better safety performance based on the number of conflicts. In addition, countermeasures with neighboring Hi-Pass lanes were favorable in terms of the safety and the convenience of installation and operation. The methodology proposed in this study was found to be useful to support decision makings by providing critical and quantitative information regarding the mobility, safety and the convenience of installation and operation.

Study on the Consequence Effect Analysis & Process Hazard Review at Gas Release from Hydrogen Fluoride Storage Tank (최근 불산 저장탱크에서의 가스 누출시 공정위험 및 결과영향 분석)

  • Ko, JaeSun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.449-461
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    • 2013
  • As the hydrofluoric acid leak in Gumi-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do or hydrochloric acid leak in Ulsan, Gyeongsangnam-do demonstrated, chemical related accidents are mostly caused by large amounts of volatile toxic substances leaking due to the damages of storage tank or pipe lines of transporter. Safety assessment is the most important concern because such toxic material accidents cause human and material damages to the environment and atmosphere of the surrounding area. Therefore, in this study, a hydrofluoric acid leaked from a storage tank was selected as the study example to simulate the leaked substance diffusing into the atmosphere and result analysis was performed through the numerical Analysis and diffusion simulation of ALOHA(Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres). the results of a qualitative evaluation of HAZOP (Hazard Operability)was looked at to find that the flange leak, operation delay due to leakage of the valve and the hose, and toxic gas leak were danger factors. Possibility of fire from temperature, pressure and corrosion, nitrogen supply overpressure and toxic leak from internal corrosion of tank or pipe joints were also found to be high. ALOHA resulting effects were a little different depending on the input data of Dense Gas Model, however, the wind direction and speed, rather than atmospheric stability, played bigger role. Higher wind speed affected the diffusion of contaminant. In term of the diffusion concentration, both liquid and gas leaks resulted in almost the same $LC_{50}$ and ALOHA AEGL-3(Acute Exposure Guidline Level) values. Each scenarios showed almost identical results in ALOHA model. Therefore, a buffer distance of toxic gas can be determined by comparing the numerical analysis and the diffusion concentration to the IDLH(Immediately Dangerous to Life and Health). Such study will help perform the risk assessment of toxic leak more efficiently and be utilized in establishing community emergency response system properly.

A Simulation-Based Investigation of an Advanced Traveler Information System with V2V in Urban Network (시뮬레이션기법을 통한 차량 간 통신을 이용한 첨단교통정보시스템의 효과 분석 (도시 도로망을 중심으로))

  • Kim, Hoe-Kyoung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.121-138
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    • 2011
  • More affordable and available cutting-edge technologies (e.g., wireless vehicle communication) are regarded as a possible alternative to the fixed infrastructure-based traffic information system requiring the expensive infrastructure investments and mostly implemented in the uninterrupted freeway network with limited spatial system expansion. This paper develops an advanced decentralized traveler information System (ATIS) using vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication system whose performance (drivers' travel time savings) are enhanced by three complementary functions (autonomous automatic incident detection algorithm, reliable sample size function, and driver behavior model) and evaluates it in the typical $6{\times}6$ urban grid network with non-recurrent traffic state (traffic incident) with the varying key parameters (traffic flow, communication radio range, and penetration ratio), employing the off-the-shelf microscopic simulation model (VISSIM) under the ideal vehicle communication environment. Simulation outputs indicate that as the three key parameters are increased more participating vehicles are involved for traffic data propagation in the less communication groups at the faster data dissemination speed. Also, participating vehicles saved their travel time by dynamically updating the up-to-date traffic states and searching for the new route. Focusing on the travel time difference of (instant) re-routing vehicles, lower traffic flow cases saved more time than higher traffic flow ones. This is because a relatively small number of vehicles in 300vph case re-route during the most system-efficient time period (the early time of the traffic incident) but more vehicles in 514vph case re-route during less system-efficient time period, even after the incident is resolved. Also, normally re-routings on the network-entering links saved more travel time than any other places inside the network except the case where the direct effect of traffic incident triggers vehicle re-routings during the effective incident time period and the location and direction of the incident link determines the spatial distribution of re-routing vehicles.

Assessment of climate change impact on aquatic ecology health indices in Han river basin using SWAT and random forest (SWAT 및 random forest를 이용한 기후변화에 따른 한강유역의 수생태계 건강성 지수 영향 평가)

  • Woo, So Young;Jung, Chung Gil;Kim, Jin Uk;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.10
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    • pp.863-874
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the future climate change impact on stream aquatic ecology health of Han River watershed ($34,148km^2$) using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and random forest. The 8 years (2008~2015) spring (April to June) Aquatic ecology Health Indices (AHI) such as Trophic Diatom Index (TDI), Benthic Macroinvertebrate Index (BMI) and Fish Assessment Index (FAI) scored (0~100) and graded (A~E) by NIER (National Institute of Environmental Research) were used. The 8 years NIER indices with the water quality (T-N, $NH_4$, $NO_3$, T-P, $PO_4$) showed that the deviation of AHI score is large when the concentration of water quality is low, and AHI score had negative correlation when the concentration is high. By using random forest, one of the Machine Learning techniques for classification analysis, the classification results for the 3 indices grade showed that all of precision, recall, and f1-score were above 0.81. The future SWAT hydrology and water quality results under HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) showed that the future nitrogen-related water quality in watershed average increased up to 43.2% by the baseflow increase effect and the phosphorus-related water quality decreased up to 18.9% by the surface runoff decrease effect. The future FAI and BMI showed a little better Index grade while the future TDI showed a little worse index grade. We can infer that the future TDI is more sensitive to nitrogen-related water quality and the future FAI and BMI are responded to phosphorus-related water quality.

Trends and Prospects of Forest Meteorological Studies Based on the Publications in Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회지 수록 논문에 기반한 산림기상 연구 추세와 전망)

  • Moon, Na Hyun;Shin, Man Yong;Moon, Ga Hyun;Chun, Junghwa
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.121-134
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    • 2019
  • This study was conducted to review the trends of forest meteorological studies based on the publications for last 20 years in Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (KJAFM), and to provide insight for future prospect for researches in the field of forest meteorology. A total of 220 papers related to forest meteorology were published in KJAFM for the last 20 years. That corresponds to 33.5% out of all the papers including agricultural meteorology papers. To review the trends of forest meteorology studies, the 220 published papers were classified into seven categories. They are forest meteorology and forest fire, forest meteorology and tree physiology, forest meteorology and forest protection, micrometeorology in mountain area, climate and forest growth, climate and forest vegetation distribution, and climate change and forest ecosystem. Even if there were differences in paper numbers among the seven categories, it was found that various and very specific studies were conducted in the field of forest meteorology for the last 20 years. It was also expected that the accumulation and utilization of various and accurate forest meteorological information would bring remarkable progress of forest meteorological studies in the near future.