• Title/Summary/Keyword: 시나리오기반 평가시스템

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A Study on the Corporate Portfolio Risk Management for Multinational Construction Company (대형건설업체의 해외건설공사 포트폴리오 리스크 관리에 관한 연구)

  • Han Seung-Heon;Lee Young;Kim Hyung-Jin;Ock Jong-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.2 no.2 s.6
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    • pp.68-80
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    • 2001
  • While opportunities for international construction firms have been growing with globalization, the risk of international construction projects is significantly increasing in severity and complexity. However, the traditional risk management approach in the construction industry has maintained a profit focus. In addition, this approach has not considered the overall risk at the corporate level, but rather has focused only on the risk of individuals at the project level. Corporate risk management should be implemented from the initial stages of new project selection. This paper suggests the Multi-criteria Integrated Systematic Analysis as a strategic decision-making tool for international construction contractors. The model integrates the multi-criteria of risk, return, and efficiency to choose the optimal set of new portfolios at the corporate level. This model also introduces the Value at Risk (VaR) concept to the international construction industry to present the total risk at the corporate level. To validate this model, this paper tested an experimental case study using the historical data of a global general contractor.

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GIS-based Disaster Management System for a Private Insurance Company in Case of Typhoons(I) (지리정보기반의 재해 관리시스템 구축(I) -민간 보험사의 사례, 태풍의 경우-)

  • Chang Eun-Mi
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.41 no.1 s.112
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    • pp.106-120
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    • 2006
  • Natural or man-made disaster has been expected to be one of the potential themes that can integrate human geography and physical geography. Typhoons like Rusa and Maemi caused great loss to insurance companies as well as public sectors. We have implemented a natural disaster management system for a private insurance company to produce better estimation of hazards from high wind as well as calculate vulnerability of damage. Climatic gauge sites and addresses of contract's objects were geo-coded and the pressure values along all the typhoon tracks were vectorized into line objects. National GIS topog raphic maps with scale of 1: 5,000 were updated into base maps and digital elevation model with 30 meter space and land cover maps were used for reflecting roughness of land to wind velocity. All the data are converted to grid coverage with $1km{\times}1km$. Vulnerability curve of Munich Re was ad opted, and preprocessor and postprocessor of wind velocity model was implemented. Overlapping the location of contracts on the grid value coverage can show the relative risk, with given scenario. The wind velocities calculated by the model were compared with observed value (average $R^2=0.68$). The calibration of wind speed models was done by dropping two climatic gauge data, which enhanced $R^2$ values. The comparison of calculated loss with actual historical loss of the insurance company showed both underestimation and overestimation. This system enables the company to have quantitative data for optimizing the re-insurance ratio, to have a plan to allocate enterprise resources and to upgrade the international creditability of the company. A flood model, storm surge model and flash flood model are being added, at last, combined disaster vulnerability will be calculated for a total disaster management system.

Developing algorithms for providing evacuation and detour route guidance under emergency conditions (재난.재해 시 대피 및 우회차량 경로 제공 알고리즘 개발)

  • Yang, Choong-Heon;Son, Young-Tae;Yang, In-Chul;Kim, Hyun-Myoung
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.129-139
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    • 2009
  • The transportation network is a critical infrastructure in the event of natural and human caused disasters such as rainfall, snowfall, and terror and so on. Particularly, the transportation network in an urban area where a large number of population live is subject to be negatively affected from such events. Therefore, efficient traffic operation plans are required to assist rapid evacuation and effective detour of vehicles on the network as soon as possible. Recently, ubiquitous communication and sensor network technology is very useful to improve data collection and connection related emergency information. In this study, we develop a specific algorithm to provide evacuation route and detour information only for vehicles under emergency situations. Our algorithm is based on shortest path search technique and dynamic traffic assignment. We perform the case study to evaluate model performance applying hypothetical scenarios involved terror. Results show that the model successfully describe effective path for each vehicle under emergency situation.

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Traffic Signal Control Algorithm for Isolated Intersections Based on Travel Time (독립교차로의 통행시간 기반 신호제어 알고리즘)

  • Jeong, Youngje;Park, Sang Sup;Kim, Youngchan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2012
  • This research suggested a real-time traffic signal control algorithm using individual vehicle travel times on an isolated signal intersection. To collect IDs and passing times from individual vehicles, space-based surveillance systems such as DSRC were adopted. This research developed models to estimate arrival flow rates, delays, and the change rate in delay, by using individual vehicle's travel time data. This real-time signal control algorithm could determine optimal traffic signal timings that minimize intersection delay, based on a linear programming. A micro simulation analysis using CORSIM and RUN TIME EXTENSION verified saturated intersection conditions, and determined the optimal traffic signal timings that minimize intersection delay. In addition, the performance of algorithm varying according to market penetration was examined. In spite of limited results from a specific scenario, this algorithm turned out to be effective as long as the probe rate exceeds 40 percent. Recently, space-based traffic surveillance systems are being installed by various projects, such as Hi-pass, Advanced Transportation Management System (ATMS) and Urban Transportation Information System (UTIS) in Korea. This research has an important significance in that the propose algorithm is a new methodology that accepts the space-based traffic surveillance system in real-time signal operations.

Correlations of Earthquake Accelerations and LPIs for Liquefaction Risk Mapping in Seoul & Gyeonggi-do Area based on Artificial Scenarios (서울, 경기지역의 시나리오별 액상화 위험지도 작성을 위한 지진가속도와 LPI 상관관계 분석)

  • Baek, Woohyun;Choi, Jaesoon
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.5-12
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    • 2019
  • On November 15, 2017, a unpredictable liquefaction damage was occurred at the $M_L=5.4$ Pohang earthquake and after, many researches have been conducted in Korea. In Korea, where there were no cases of earthquake damage, it has been extremely neglectable in preparing earthquake risk maps and building earthquake systems that corresponded to prevention and preparation. Since it is almost impossible to observe signs and symptoms of drought, floods, and typhoons in advance, it is very effective to predict the impacts and magnitudes of seismic events. In this study, 14,040 borehole data were collected in the metropolitan area and liquefaction evaluation was performed using the amplification factor. Based on this data, liquefaction hazard maps were prepared for ground accelerations of 0.06 g, 0.14 g, 0.22 g, and 0.30 g, including 200years return period to 4,800years return period. Also, the correlation analysis between the earthquake acceleration and LPI was carried out to draw a real-time predictable liquefaction hazard map. As a result, 707 correlation equations in every cells in GIS map were proposed. Finally, the simulation for liquefaction risk mapping against artificial earthquake was performed in the metropolitan area using the proposed correlation equations.

Design Improvements for Preventing Crack of Equipment Mounting Structure in Rotary Wing Aircraft (회전익 항공기의 장비 장착 지지 구조물의 균열 방지를 위한 설계 개선)

  • Bang, Daehan;Lee, Sook;Lee, Sanghoon;Choi, Sangmin
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.28-35
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    • 2020
  • This paper presents the design improvements made for the crack which is in the mounting structure of the mechanical structure of rotary wing aircraft. The doubler added to the mounting structure of rotary wing aircraft was designed and manufactured based on the load at the development stage, and a crack was found in the surface of doubler at a certain point during the operation of the aircraft. To identify the cause of the crack, the initial deformation of the structure, which may occur as a result of fastening condition, was considered and the dynamic analysis of the natural frequency of the structure comparing to the blade passing frequency of the aircraft were additionally reviewed. As a result of this study, a shim was added to remove the physical gap of the fastening area, and a doubler with thickened reinforcement was installed. The increase of structural strength is shown by reviewing the results of dynamic analysis for the structural verification of the improved design, and the fatigue evaluation complied to the requirement of the aircraft lifetime.

Comparison of target classification accuracy according to the aspect angle and the bistatic angle in bistatic sonar (양상태 소나에서의 자세각과 양상태각에 따른 표적 식별 정확도 비교)

  • Choo, Yeon-Seong;Byun, Sung-Hoon;Choo, Youngmin;Choi, Giyung
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.330-336
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    • 2021
  • In bistatic sonar operation, the scattering strength of a sonar target is characterized by the probe signal frequency, the aspect angle and the bistatic angle. Therefore, the target detection and identification performance of the bistatic sonar may vary depending on how the positions of the target, sound source, and receiver are changed during sonar operation. In this study, it was evaluated which variable is advantageous to change by comparing the target identification performance between the case of changing the aspect angle and the case of changing the bistatic angle during the operation. A scenario of identifying a hollow sphere and a cylinder was assumed, and performance was compared by classifying two targets with a support vector machine and comparing their accuracy using a finite element method-based acoustic scattering simulation. As a result of comparison, using the scattering strength defined by the frequency and the bistatic angle with the aspect angle fixed showed superior average classification accuracy. It means that moving the receiver to change the bistatic angle is more effective than moving the sound source to change the aspect angle for target identification.

Progress in Nanofiltration-Based Capacitive Deionization (나노여과 기반 용량성 탈이온화의 진전)

  • Jeong Hwan Shim;Rajkumar Patel
    • Membrane Journal
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.87-95
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    • 2024
  • Recent studies explore a wide array of desalination and water treatment methods, encompassing membrane processes such as reverse osmosis (RO), nanofiltration (NF), and electrodialysis (ED) to advanced capacitive deionization (CDI) and its membrane variant (MCDI). Comparative analyses reveal ED's cost-effectiveness in low-salinity scenarios, while hybrid systems (NF-MCDI, RO-NF-MCDI) show improved salt removal and energy efficiency. Novel ion separation methods (NF-CDI, NF-FCDI) offer enhanced efficacy and energy savings. These studies also highlight the efficiency of these methods in treating complex wastewater specific to various industries. Environmental impact assessments emphasize the need for sustainability in system selection. Additionally, the integration of microfabricated sensors into membranes allows real-time monitoring, advancing technology development. These studies underscore the variety and promise of emerging desalination and water treatment technologies. They provide valuable insights for enhancing efficiency, minimizing energy usage, tackling industry-specific issues, and innovating to surpass conventional method limitations. The future of sustainable water treatment appears bright, with continual advancements focused on improving efficiency, minimizing environmental impact, and ensuring adaptability across diverse applications.

A stratified random sampling design for paddy fields: Optimized stratification and sample allocation for effective spatial modeling and mapping of the impact of climate changes on agricultural system in Korea (농지 공간격자 자료의 층화랜덤샘플링: 농업시스템 기후변화 영향 공간모델링을 위한 국내 농지 최적 층화 및 샘플 수 최적화 연구)

  • Minyoung Lee;Yongeun Kim;Jinsol Hong;Kijong Cho
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.526-535
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    • 2021
  • Spatial sampling design plays an important role in GIS-based modeling studies because it increases modeling efficiency while reducing the cost of sampling. In the field of agricultural systems, research demand for high-resolution spatial databased modeling to predict and evaluate climate change impacts is growing rapidly. Accordingly, the need and importance of spatial sampling design are increasing. The purpose of this study was to design spatial sampling of paddy fields (11,386 grids with 1 km spatial resolution) in Korea for use in agricultural spatial modeling. A stratified random sampling design was developed and applied in 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s under two RCP scenarios of 4.5 and 8.5. Twenty-five weather and four soil characteristics were used as stratification variables. Stratification and sample allocation were optimized to ensure minimum sample size under given precision constraints for 16 target variables such as crop yield, greenhouse gas emission, and pest distribution. Precision and accuracy of the sampling were evaluated through sampling simulations based on coefficient of variation (CV) and relative bias, respectively. As a result, the paddy field could be optimized in the range of 5 to 21 strata and 46 to 69 samples. Evaluation results showed that target variables were within precision constraints (CV<0.05 except for crop yield) with low bias values (below 3%). These results can contribute to reducing sampling cost and computation time while having high predictive power. It is expected to be widely used as a representative sample grid in various agriculture spatial modeling studies.

A Simulation-Based Investigation of an Advanced Traveler Information System with V2V in Urban Network (시뮬레이션기법을 통한 차량 간 통신을 이용한 첨단교통정보시스템의 효과 분석 (도시 도로망을 중심으로))

  • Kim, Hoe-Kyoung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.121-138
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    • 2011
  • More affordable and available cutting-edge technologies (e.g., wireless vehicle communication) are regarded as a possible alternative to the fixed infrastructure-based traffic information system requiring the expensive infrastructure investments and mostly implemented in the uninterrupted freeway network with limited spatial system expansion. This paper develops an advanced decentralized traveler information System (ATIS) using vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication system whose performance (drivers' travel time savings) are enhanced by three complementary functions (autonomous automatic incident detection algorithm, reliable sample size function, and driver behavior model) and evaluates it in the typical $6{\times}6$ urban grid network with non-recurrent traffic state (traffic incident) with the varying key parameters (traffic flow, communication radio range, and penetration ratio), employing the off-the-shelf microscopic simulation model (VISSIM) under the ideal vehicle communication environment. Simulation outputs indicate that as the three key parameters are increased more participating vehicles are involved for traffic data propagation in the less communication groups at the faster data dissemination speed. Also, participating vehicles saved their travel time by dynamically updating the up-to-date traffic states and searching for the new route. Focusing on the travel time difference of (instant) re-routing vehicles, lower traffic flow cases saved more time than higher traffic flow ones. This is because a relatively small number of vehicles in 300vph case re-route during the most system-efficient time period (the early time of the traffic incident) but more vehicles in 514vph case re-route during less system-efficient time period, even after the incident is resolved. Also, normally re-routings on the network-entering links saved more travel time than any other places inside the network except the case where the direct effect of traffic incident triggers vehicle re-routings during the effective incident time period and the location and direction of the incident link determines the spatial distribution of re-routing vehicles.