• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.29 no.7
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• pp.915-929
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• 2023

Improvements in people's quality of life, diversification of leisure activities, and changes in population structure have led to an increase in the demand for tourism and an expansion of the diversification of tourism activities. In particular, for coastal cities where land and marine tourism elements coexist, various factors influence their tourism demands. Tourism requires the construction of infrastructure and content development according to the demand at the tourist destination. This study aims to improve the prediction accuracy and explore influencing factors through time series analysis of tourism scale using agent-based data. Basic local governments in the Busan area were examined, and the data used were the number of tourists and the amount of tourism consumption on a monthly basis. The univariate time series analysis, which is a deterministic model, was used along with the SARIMAX analysis to identify the influencing factor. The tourism consumption propensity, focusing on the consumption amount according to business types and the amount of mentions on SNS, was set as the influencing factor. The difference in accuracy (RMSE standard) between the time series models that did and did not consider COVID-19 was found to be very wide, ranging from 1.8 times to 32.7 times by region. Additionally, considering the influencing factor, the tourism consumption business type and SNS trends were found to significantly impact the number of tourists and the amount of tourism consumption. Therefore, to predict future demand, external influences as well as the tourists' consumption tendencies and interests in terms of local tourism must be considered. This study aimed to predict future tourism demand in a coastal city such as Busan and identify factors affecting tourism scale, thereby contributing to policy decision-making to prepare tourism demand in consideration of government tourism policies and tourism trends.

• Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.855-863
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• 2016

Most greenhouse gases were arisen from the generation and use of energy, more than about 95 % of greenhouse gas from the traffic section was resulted by the transportation fuels. Also, when using the $CO_2$ emission factor suggested at IPCC G/L, there was the weakness which did not reflect the own property of fuel by country. And most industrialized countries have applied with the $CO_2$ emission factor of Tier 2 or Tier 3 to make the national greenhouse report to submit to UN according to the Kyoto Protocol. In this study, the transportation fuels using in domestic like unleaded gasoline, diesel, etc were analysed to identify the physical/chemical properties and these data were used to calculate the $CO_2$ emission factor of each fuels. And the study analysed the time series analysis to compare the property of fuels according to the change of time.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.387-387
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• 2019

우리나라는 최근 10년간 자연재난 중 호우로 인해 인명피해 약 120명, 재산피해 약 1조 4천억원을 기록하였으며, 또한 기후변화로 인해 강한 국지성 집중호우의 발생빈도가 높아질 것으로 예상됨에 따라 호우에 의한 침수피해가 증가될 것으로 예상된다. 특히 본 연구 대상지역인 인천시의 경우 도시화로 인해 인구밀도 및 불투수지역이 증가함에 따라 침수피해가 대형화되고 있는 실정이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 인천시와 같은 도심지역에서의 침수발생을 사전에 예측하고 침수발생에 대한 대비 대응을 위해 하수관망 해석을 위한 SWMM 모델과 침수해석을 위한 2DIS 모델을 연계하여 인천시 침수심 생산체계를 구축하고자 한다. 본 연구에 적용한 침수심 생산과정은 크게 강우자료 생산, 유역 및 하수관망 해석, 침수 해석 등 총 3단계 과정으로 구성된다. 강우자료 생산과정에서는 유역 및 하수관망 해석과 침수 해석을 위한 10분 단위 유역평균 강우량자료를 생산한다. 유역 및 하수관망 해석과정에서는 지형자료 및 강우자료를 이용하여 SWMM 모델을 통해 맨홀에서의 월류량 자료를 생산한다. 마지막으로 침수해석과정에서는 지형자료와 함께 앞서 두 과정을 통해 생산된 강우 및 맨홀 월류량 자료를 입력자료로 하여 2DIS 모델을 통해 10분 단위의 시계열 침수심 정보 및 격자별 최대 침수심정보를 생산한다. 본 연구에서의 공간해상도는 도심지역의 도로단위 고해상도 침수심 정보 생산을 위해 6m 단위로 하였으며, 시간해상도는 단시간에 발생하는 도심지역의 침수특성 반영을 위해 10분으로 하였다. 또한, 침수발생 시 발생한 강우의 지표흐름 영향을 반영하기 위해 빗물받이효율 변화에 다른 침수심을 분석하였다. 본 연구를 통해 도출된 모의 침수심 결과를 실제 침수피해사례 및 풍수해저감종합계획 결과와 비교하였으며, 다수 지역에서 실제 침수발생지역과 동일하게 침수가 발생한 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 전체적인 침수 양상이 유사하게 발생함을 확인하였다. 향후 관측자료를 이용한 하수관망 및 침수해석 모델의 최적화, 하천유량 예측을 통한 하류 기점수위의 반영 등을 통해 정확도를 개선할 수 있을 것으로 판단되며, 이를 통해 인천시 침수발생을 사전에 예측하여 침수피해에 대비 및 대응과 침수피해 발생 시 정확하고 상세한 원인 분석 및 예측이 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

• KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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• v.5 no.10
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• pp.293-302
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• 2016

Since the electricity is produced and consumed simultaneously, predicting the electric load and securing affordable electric power are necessary for reliable electric power supply. In particular, a university campus is one of the highest power consuming institutions and tends to have a wide variation of electric load depending on time and environment. For these reasons, an accurate electric load forecasting method that can predict power consumption in real-time is required for efficient power supply and management. Even though various influencing factors of power consumption have been discovered for the educational institutions by analyzing power consumption patterns and usage cases, further studies are required for the quantitative prediction of electric load. In this paper, we build an electric load forecasting model by implementing and evaluating various machine learning algorithms. To do that, we consider three building clusters in a campus and collect their power consumption every 15 minutes for more than one year. In the preprocessing, features are represented by considering periodic characteristic of the data and principal component analysis is performed for the features. In order to train the electric load forecasting model, we employ both artificial neural network and support vector machine. We evaluate the prediction performance of each forecasting model by 5-fold cross-validation and compare the prediction result to real electric load.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.188-198
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• 2016

This study examined the effects of a smoking cessation coaching program based on the motivation stage applying the Transtheoretical Model to stop the smoking of patients in terms of the amount of smoking, nicotine dependence, CO level, and urine cotinine. The study design was a multi-repeat multiple repeat intermittent time series study with one-group, a pre-post design. The participants were 47 smoking patients (44 males and 3 females), who were treated at a public hospital in N city. The participants were 4 (8.51%) subjects in the action stage and 43 subjects (91.49%) in the preparation stage of the motivation stage. The coaching program intervention was conducted at the first day, second week, and 6th week. The smoking cessation maintenance of the subjects was checked at the 12th week. A chi-square test and t-test were used to analyze the data. The subjects in the action stage were kept under the condition of no smoking and nicotine dependence. After the program of subjects in the preparation stage, the amount of smoking, nicotine dependence, and CO level were significantly lower compared to the pre-test (p<.001). The findings suggest that the coaching program based on the motivation stage was effective in improving the smoking cessation for patients who smoke. On the other hand, the patients in the smoking cessation program may require much more financial assistance than those of healthy people. A greater workforce and budget will be needed for patients to stop smoking.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.81-89
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• 2011

The results of tracking the symbolism of plants in the introduction factors of Sokhwa(folk painting) are as the following. 1. The term Sokhwa(俗畵) is not only a type of painting with a strong local customs, but also carries a symbolic meaning and was discovered in "Donggukisanggukjip" of Lee, Gyu-Bo(1268~1241) in the Goryo era as well as the various usage in the "Sok Dongmunseon" in the early Chosun era, "Sasukjaejip" of Gang, Hee-mang(1424~1483), "Ilseongrok(1786)" in the late Chosun era, "Jajeo(自著)" of Yoo, Han-joon(1732~1811), and "Ojuyeonmunjangjeonsango(五洲衍文長箋散稿)" of Lee, Gyu-gyung(1788~?). Especially, according to the Jebyungjoksokhwa allegation〈題屛簇俗畵辯證說〉in the Seohwa of the Insa Edition of Ojuyeonmunjangjeonsango, there is a record that the "people called them Sokhwa." 2. Contemporarily, the Korean Sokhwa underwent the prehistoric age that primitively reflected the natural perspective on agricultural culture, the period of Three States that expressed the philosophy of the eternal spirits and reflected the view on the universe in colored pictures, the Goryo Era that religiously expressed the abstract shapes and supernatural patterns in spacein symbolism, and the Chosun Era that established the traditional Korean identity of natural perspective, aesthetic values and symbolism in a complex integration in the popular culture over time. 3. The materials that were analyzed in 1,009 pieces of Korean Sokhwa showed 35 species of plants, 37 species of animals, 6 types of natural objects and other 5 types with a total of 83 types. 4. The shape aesthetics according to the aesthetic analysis of the plants in Sokhwa reflect the primitive world view of Yin/yang and the Five Elements in the peony paintings and dynamic refinement and biological harmonies in the maehwado; the composition aesthetics show complex multi-perspective composition with a strong noteworthiness in the bookshelf paintings, a strong contrast of colors with reverse perspective drawing in the battlefield paintings, and the symmetric beauty of simple orderly patterns in nature and artificial objects with straight and oblique lines are shown in the leisurely reading paintings. In terms of color aesthetics, the five colors of directions - east, west, south, north and the center - or the five basic colors - red, blue, yellow, white and black - are often utilized in ritual or religious manners or symbolically substitute the relative relationships with natural laws. 5. The introduction methods in the Korean Sokhwa exceed the simple imitation of the natural shapes and have been sublimated to the symbolism that is related to nature based on the colloquial artistic characteristics with the suspicion of the essence in the universe. Therefore, the symbolism of the plants and animals in the Korean Sokhwas is a symbolic recognition system, not a scientific recognition system with a free and unique expression with a complex interaction among religious, philosophical, ecological and ideological aspects, as a identity of the group culture of Koreans where the past and the future coexist in the present. This is why the Koran Sokhwa or the folk paintings can be called a cultural identity and can also be interpreted as a natural and folk meaningful scenic factor that has naturally integrated into our cultural lifestyle. However, the Sokhwa(folk paintings) that had been closely related to our lifestyle drastically lost its meaning and emotions through the transitions over time. As the living lifestyle predominantly became the apartment culture and in the historical situations where the confusion of the identity has deepened, the aesthetic and the symbolic values of the Sokhwa folk paintings have the appropriateness to be transmitted as the symbolic assets that protect our spiritual affluence and establish our identity.