• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.107-134
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• 2007

This paper tests the relationship among returns, volatilities, contracts and open interests of KOSPI 200 futures markets with the various dynamic models such as granger-causality, impulse response, variance decomposition and ARMA(1, 1)-GJR-GARCH(1, 1)-M. The sample period is from July 7, 1998 to December 29, 2005. The main empirical results are as follows; First, both contract change and open interest change of KOSPI 200 futures market tend to lead the returns of that according to the results of granger-causality, impulse response and variance decomposition with VAR. These results are likely to support the KOSPI 200 futures market seems to be inefficient with rejecting the hypothesis 1. Second, we also find that the returns and volatilities of the KOSPI 200 futures market are effected by both contract change and open interest change of that due to the results of ARMA(1,1)-GJR-GARCH(1,1)-M. These results also reject the hypothesis 1 and 2 suggesting the evidences of inefficiency of the KOSPI 200 futures market. Third, the study shows the asymmetric information effects among the variables. In addition, we can find the feedback relationship between the contract change and open interest change of KOSPI 200 futures market.

• Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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• v.8
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• pp.129-138
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• 1990

This study investigated the relationship between the cutflow of rural population and agricultural policy by using time series method. For the analytical tools, decomposition time series methods and regression technique were employed in computing seasonal fluctuation and cyclical fluctuation of population migration. Also, this study predicted farmhouse, rural population till the 2000's by means of the mathematical methods. The analytical forms employed in forecasting farmhouse, rural population were Exponential curve, Gompertz curve and Transcendental form. The major findings of this study were identified as follows: 1) Rural population and farmhouse population began to decrease from 1965 and hastily went down since 1975. Rural population which accounted for 36.4 percent, 35.6 percent of national population respectively in 1960 diminished about two times: 17.5 percent, 17.1 percent respectively. 2) The rapid decreasing of the rural population was caused because of the outflow of rural people to the urban regions. Of course, that was also caused from the natural decreases but the main reason was heavily affected more the former than the latter. In the outflowing course shaped from rural to the urban regions, rural people concentrated on such metropolis as Seoul, Pusan, Keanggi. But these trends were diminishing slowly. On the other hand, compared with that of the 1970's the migration to Keanggi was still increasing in the 1980's. That is, people altered the way of migration from the migration to Seoul, Pusan to the migration to the out-skirts of Seoul. 3) The seasonal fluctuation index of population migration has gone down since the June which the request of agricultural labor force increases and has turned to be greatly wanted in the March as result of decomposition time series method. As result of cyclical analysis, the cyclical patterns of migration have greatly 7 cycle. 4) As result of forecasting the rural and farmhouse population, rural and farmhouse population in the 2000 will be about 9,655(thousand/people) and 4,429(thousand/people) respectively. Thus, it is important to analyze the probloms that rural and farmhouse population will decrease or increase by the degree. But fairly defining the agricultural into a industry that supply the food, this problem - how much our nation need the rural and farmhouse population - is greatly significant too. Therefore, the basic problems of the agricultural including the outflows of rural people are the earning differentials between rural and urban regions. And we should regard the problems of the gap of relative incomes between rural and urban regions as the main task of the agricultural policy and treat the agricultural policy in the viewpoint of developing economic equilibrium than efficiency by using actively the natural resources of the rural regions.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.65 no.1
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• pp.80-91
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• 1984

The purposes of this study are to analyze and forecast the domestic demand for papers by regression models with time-series data (1965-81). For the period of 1965-81, the real GNP of Korea grew at annual average increase rate of 8.8 percent. On the other hand, the domestic demand of papers grew at annual average increase rate of 17.9 percent in this period. Especially, the annual average increase rate for board-papers accounted to 25.8 percent. To analyze domestic demand for papers, GNP, per capita GNP, price findex of papers, production activity index of the major papers consuming industries and price index of substitutive goods were selected as independent variables. The expected values of domestic demand for papers were computed by forecasting equations as follows. T-values are in parentheses. ${\ell}nDDP=2.452+1.986{\ell}nPG-0.844{\ell}nPWI$ $(33.397)^*\;(-6.149)^*\;R^2=0.997$ ${\ell}nDDP=6.468+0.827{\ell}nPDA$ $(17.403)^*\;R^2=0.950$ DDP : Domestic demand for papers PG : Real GNP per capita (1,000 won) PWI : Real price index of papers (1980 = 100) PDAV : Production activity index of the major papers consuming industries The results analyzed and forecasted by these models are summarized as follows: The domestic demand for papers had positive correlation toward per capita GNP and production activity index of the major papers consuming industries. Per capita GNP elasticity of the domestic demand for papers was the most elastic among independent variables. The price elasticity of domestic demand for papers had negative sign and inelastic. These were not only statistically significant but theoretically compatible. The domestic demand for papers was projected to be 3,152-4,470 thousand mit in 1991, representing at annual increase rate of 5.0-12.4 percent during the period of 1982-91. Domestic demand for papers per capita was projected to be 69.1-98.0 kg in 1991.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.98-104
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• 1999

To investigate the relationships between ocean environmental characteristics, the time-series data of temperature and salinity observed at a station near at Hanlim set net in 1995 and 1996 are analyzed, and the results are as follow ; 1. In hanlim set net, the diurnal range of temperature and salinity variation in summer is very large and the amplitude of short-period fluctuation of temperature and salinity is very large. That is, not only the water of the middle and bottom layers (low temperature and high salinity) but also the coalstal water (high temperature and low salinity) appears alternatively depending on the current direction 2. from the result of mooring for 22 days in Hanlim set net, the mean speed and direction of tidal current in neap tide were 9.1 cm/sec and south westward in ebb time, and 11.6 cm/sec and north or northeastward in flood time, respectively. The highest speed of the current was 15cm/sec in ebb time, and 22.6 cm/sec in flood time. The mean speed and direction of tidal current in spring tide were 10.4 cm/sec, and southwestward in ebb time, and 12.3 cm/sec, and north or northestward in flood time, respectively. The highest speed of the current was 19.4 cm/sec in ebb time, and 20 cm/sec in flood time respectively. The mean speed of the current in flood time was larger than that in ebb time. The velocity vector along the major axis of semidiurnal tide ($M_2$) component was 1.5 times larger than that of diurnal tide ($K_1$), The major directions of two compornants were northwestward and east-southeastward and residiual current were 3.25 cm/sec and northwestward-directed. Result of TGPS Buoy tracer for 3 days between Biyang-Do and Chgui-Do showed that the mean speed was 1.6 knot in ebb time and 1.3 knot in flood time. Direction of tidal was southwestward in ebb time and northeastward in flood time respectively. The maximum current speed was 4.8 knot in ebb time and 3.7 knot in flood time respectively. The mean speed and direction of tidal in of offshore were 1.7 knot and northwestward in flood time. The residual current appeared 0.3 knot northeastward.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.41 no.6
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• pp.645-655
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• 2008

The Cr(VI) concentrations at the shallow aquifer well (MPH-0-1) of the Moonpyung groundwater monitoring station were in the range of 0.5 to 3.1 mg/L exceeding 10 to 62 times the guideline for drinking-water quality, indicating continuous contamination. However, Cr was not detected at the deep bedrock well and the other subsidiary monitoring wells except for MPH-1 and 6. Cross-correlation analyses were conducted for rainfall and groundwater level time series, resulting in the mean time of recharge after precipitation events to be 5.6 days. For rainy season, the water level was raised and the Cr(VI) concentration was several times lower than that during dry season at well MPH-0-1 well. Correlation of the Cr(VI) concentration with the groundwater-level showed that the Cr(VI) reduction was closely related with the groundwater-level rise in the well. However, the groundwater level rise during high water season induced the lateral migration of the Cr(VI)-contaminated groundwater at well MPH-4. We enriched and isolated a chromium reducing bacteria, Enterobacter aerogenes, from the Cr(VI)-contaminated groundwater in the wells MPH-0-1 and MPH-1. The bacteria may play an important role for immobilizing Cr(VI) in the Cr(VI)-contaminated groundwater. Therefore, the migration of the contaminant (Cr(VI) must has been restricted because of the natural attenuation by microbial reduction of Cr(VI) in the groundwater. This research suggests that the bioremediation of the Cr(VI)-contaminated groundwater by the indigenous bacteria may be feasible in the Cr(VI) contaminated groundwater.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.36 no.5_3
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• pp.1037-1051
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• 2020

The accurate monitoring and forecasting of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) are able to effectively reduce the overall costs of disaster management. In this study, we proposed a multi-task learning (MTL) based deep learning model for real-time TC intensity estimation and forecasting with the lead time of 6-12 hours following the event, based on the fusion of geostationary satellite images and numerical forecast model output. A total of 142 TCs which developed in the Northwest Pacific from 2011 to 2016 were used in this study. The Communications system, the Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Meteorological Imager (MI) data were used to extract the images of typhoons, and the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) provided by the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was employed to extract air and ocean forecasting data. This study suggested two schemes with different input variables to the MTL models. Scheme 1 used only satellite-based input data while scheme 2 used both satellite images and numerical forecast modeling. As a result of real-time TC intensity estimation, Both schemes exhibited similar performance. For TC intensity forecasting with the lead time of 6 and 12 hours, scheme 2 improved the performance by 13% and 16%, respectively, in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) when compared to scheme 1. Relative root mean squared errors(rRMSE) for most intensity levels were lessthan 30%. The lower mean absolute error (MAE) and RMSE were found for the lower intensity levels of TCs. In the test results of the typhoon HALONG in 2014, scheme 1 tended to overestimate the intensity by about 20 kts at the early development stage. Scheme 2 slightly reduced the error, resulting in an overestimation by about 5 kts. The MTL models reduced the computational cost about 300% when compared to the single-tasking model, which suggested the feasibility of the rapid production of TC intensity forecasts.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.67-83
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• 1986

Oriented hand samples were collected from Gobangsan Formation and Nogam Formation in the north of Danyang and south of Yeongchun, from Bansong Group in and around Danyang, from Nampo Group in Chungnam Coalfield, from Gyeongsang Supergroup distributed from Waegwan through Daegu to Gyeongsan and from Daegu to Goryong, and from volcanic flows in Jeongog area and Jeju Island to study the paleomagnetism of southern Korea since Permian. Stepwise alternating field and thermal demagnetization experiments were carried out to determine optimum fields and temperatures. Observed mean paleomagnetic directions are as follows: $D=331.5^{\circ}$, $I=25.1^{\circ}$, $a95=12.8^{\circ}$ for Permian, $D=325.6^{\circ}$, $I=46.1^{\circ}$, $a95=11.8^{\circ}$ for Triassic, $D=313.4^{\circ}$, $I=43.1^{\circ}$, $a95=16.0^{\circ}$ for early Jurassic, $D=41.3^{\circ}$, $I=64.6^{\circ}$, $a95=4.5^{\circ}$ for early Cretaceous, $D=28.3^{\circ}$, $I=58.1^{\circ}$, $a95=2.3^{\circ}$ for late Cretaceous, $D=2.0^{\circ}$, $I=55.8^{\circ}$, $a95=6.6^{\circ}$for Quaternary. To describe the tectonic translocation of southern Korean block, northern Eurasian continental block was used as a reference frame. For each age since Permian the expected northern Eurasian field directions in terms of paleolatitude and declination were calculated. The paleolatitudes of Permian ($13.2^{\circ}N$) and early Jurassic ($25.1^{\circ}N$) obtained from the study area are quite different from those of Permian ($66.0^{\circ}N$) and early Jurassic ($68.1^{\circ}N$) which are expected for northern Eurasia. The declinations of Permian ($331.5^{\circ}$) and early Jurassic ($313.4^{\circ}$) are also quite different from those of the Permian ($56.6^{\circ}$) and the early Jurassic ($47.5^{\circ}$) expected for northern Eurasia. The Cretaceous paleolatitude is similar to the expected within error limit, but the declination for the same period is significantly different from that of the expected for the northern Eurasia. From the above evidences it is suggested that the south Korean land mass had moved from low latitude in Permian to north and sutured to northern continental block since early Jurassic. The relative rotations of early Cretaceous($27.4^{\circ}$) and late Cretaceous($10.8^{\circ}$) to northern Eurasian continent reveal that the Korean land mass might be rotated clockwise in two different times, probably in late Early Cretaceous and in Tertiary.

• The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.77-85
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• 1997

The Early Proterozoic reworked rock association occurs within the Preacmbrian high grade metamorphic rocks in the area of Daqingshan, Inner Molgolia. In this association, the various large scale ductile deformation belts, form a nappe structure where the foliation steeply dips to north and the lineation ($340^{circ}-30^{\circ}$) plunges at $45^{\circ}55^{\circ}$. This result indicates the subduction/extension with northern part thrusting over the southern part at high angle. The southern subducted microlithon has the characteristics of prograde metamorphism. The northern thrusted microlithon shows the evidence of retrograde metamorphism with decreasing pressure and increasing temperature. The main rock types of Early Proterozoic Moyites are biotite adamellite and syenogranites occurring in the form of small batholiths or stocks and alkali-feldspar granites in veins. The biotite adamellites are progressively contacted with the Archean and Early Proterozoic rocks and contain a great deal of enclaves of metamorphosed rocks, suggesting an anatexis origin. The geochemical characteristics of moyites show the typical features of anatexis granite. At middle to late Early Proterozoic time, the continent-continent collision formed the large scale thrusting and imbrication of Archean basement rocks. According to the mineral assemblage and thermobarometer of Paria et al. (1988) give the following P-T condition : up-faulted block; $700-710^{\circ}C$, 0.72-0.78 Gpa (early stage) and $600^{\circ}C$, 0.44 Gpa (late stage), footwall block; $620^{\circ}C$, 0.8 Gpa (early stage), $620-840^{\circ}C$, 0.64-0.45 Gpa (peak) and $620-630^{\circ}C$, 0.35Gpa (late stage). These results suggest a clockwise P-T-t path (jin et al., 1991, 1994). According to the depth-temperature model in the comperature subduction zone and the experimental data of Wyllie et al. (1983), we propose a tectonic-magmatic-thermal model to account for metamorphism-anatexis of moyite occurring in subduction-shear zone.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.171-198
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• 2009

The primary purpose of this study is to examine the impact of new BIS regulation, which is the preparations to incorporate not only credit risk but also market and operation risk, on the bank behaviors. As methodology, SUR(seemingly unrelated regression) and pool unit test are used in the empirical analysis of banks survived in Korea. It is employed that quarterly data of BIS capital ratio, ratio of standard and below loans to total loans, ratio of liquid assets to liquid liabilities, allowances for credit losses, real GDP, yields of corporate bonds(3years, AA) covering the period of 2000Q1~2009Q1. As a result, it could be indicated that effectiveness and promoting improvements of BIS capital regulation policy as follows; First, it is explicitly seen that weight of lending had decreased and specific gravity of international investment had increased until before BIS regulation is built up a step for revised agreement in late 2001. Second, after more strengthening of BIS standard in late 2002, banks had a tendency to decrease the adjustment of assets weighted risk through issuing of national loan that is comparatively low profitability. Also, it is implicitly sought that BIS regulation is a bit of a factor to bring about credit crunch and then has become a bit of a factor of economic stagnation. Third, as the BIS regulation became hard, it let have a effort to raise the soundness of a credit loan because of selecting good debtor based on its credit ratings. Fourth, it should be arranged that the market disciplines, the effective superintendence system and the sound environment to be able to raise enormous bank capital easily, against the credit stringency and reinforce the soundness of banks etc. in Korea capital market.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.19-43
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• 2016

This study examines the causes of the Asian exchange rate crisis and compares it to the European Monetary System crisis. In 1997, emerging countries in Asia experienced financial crises. Previously in 1992, currencies in the European Monetary System had undergone the same experience. This was followed by Mexico in 1994. The objective of this paper lies in the generation of useful insights from these crises. This research presents a comparison of South Korea, United Kingdom and Mexico, and then compares three different models for prediction. Previous studies of economic crisis focused largely on the manual construction of causal models using linear techniques. However, the weakness of such models stems from the prevalence of nonlinear factors in reality. This paper uses a structural equation model to analyze the causes, followed by a neural network model to circumvent the linear model's weaknesses. The models are examined in the context of predicting exchange rates In this paper, data were quarterly ones, and Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, Stock Index, Current Account, Foreign Reserves were independent variables for the prediction. However, time periods of each country's data are different. Lisrel is an emerging method and as such requires a fresh approach to financial crisis prediction model design, along with the flexibility to accommodate unexpected change. This paper indicates the neural network model has the greater prediction performance in Korea, Mexico, and United Kingdom. However, in Korea, the multiple regression shows the better performance. In Mexico, the multiple regression is almost indifferent to the Lisrel. Although Lisrel doesn't show the significant performance, the refined model is expected to show the better result. The structural model in this paper should contain the psychological factor and other invisible areas in the future work. The reason of the low hit ratio is that the alternative model in this paper uses only the financial market data. Thus, we cannot consider the other important part. Korea's hit ratio is lower than that of United Kingdom. So, there must be the other construct that affects the financial market. So does Mexico. However, the United Kingdom's financial market is more influenced and explained by the financial factors than Korea and Mexico.