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Forecasting of Demand for Papers in Korea (한국(韓國)의 지류(紙類) 수요예측(需要豫測)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Chung, Il Yong;Chung, Young Gwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.65 no.1
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    • pp.80-91
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    • 1984
  • The purposes of this study are to analyze and forecast the domestic demand for papers by regression models with time-series data (1965-81). For the period of 1965-81, the real GNP of Korea grew at annual average increase rate of 8.8 percent. On the other hand, the domestic demand of papers grew at annual average increase rate of 17.9 percent in this period. Especially, the annual average increase rate for board-papers accounted to 25.8 percent. To analyze domestic demand for papers, GNP, per capita GNP, price findex of papers, production activity index of the major papers consuming industries and price index of substitutive goods were selected as independent variables. The expected values of domestic demand for papers were computed by forecasting equations as follows. T-values are in parentheses. ${\ell}nDDP=2.452+1.986{\ell}nPG-0.844{\ell}nPWI$ $(33.397)^*\;(-6.149)^*\;R^2=0.997$ ${\ell}nDDP=6.468+0.827{\ell}nPDA$ $(17.403)^*\;R^2=0.950$ DDP : Domestic demand for papers PG : Real GNP per capita (1,000 won) PWI : Real price index of papers (1980 = 100) PDAV : Production activity index of the major papers consuming industries The results analyzed and forecasted by these models are summarized as follows: The domestic demand for papers had positive correlation toward per capita GNP and production activity index of the major papers consuming industries. Per capita GNP elasticity of the domestic demand for papers was the most elastic among independent variables. The price elasticity of domestic demand for papers had negative sign and inelastic. These were not only statistically significant but theoretically compatible. The domestic demand for papers was projected to be 3,152-4,470 thousand mit in 1991, representing at annual increase rate of 5.0-12.4 percent during the period of 1982-91. Domestic demand for papers per capita was projected to be 69.1-98.0 kg in 1991.

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Environmental Character and Catch Fluctuation of Set Net Ground in the Coastal Water of Hanlim in Cheju Island II. Fluctuation of Temperature, Salinity and Current (제주도 한림 연안 정치망 어장의 환경특성과 어획량 변동에 관한 연구 II. 수온 및 염분의 변동과 해수의 유동)

  • KIM Jun-Teck;JEONG Dong-Gun;RHO Hong-Kil
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.98-104
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    • 1999
  • To investigate the relationships between ocean environmental characteristics, the time-series data of temperature and salinity observed at a station near at Hanlim set net in 1995 and 1996 are analyzed, and the results are as follow ; 1. In hanlim set net, the diurnal range of temperature and salinity variation in summer is very large and the amplitude of short-period fluctuation of temperature and salinity is very large. That is, not only the water of the middle and bottom layers (low temperature and high salinity) but also the coalstal water (high temperature and low salinity) appears alternatively depending on the current direction 2. from the result of mooring for 22 days in Hanlim set net, the mean speed and direction of tidal current in neap tide were 9.1 cm/sec and south westward in ebb time, and 11.6 cm/sec and north or northeastward in flood time, respectively. The highest speed of the current was 15cm/sec in ebb time, and 22.6 cm/sec in flood time. The mean speed and direction of tidal current in spring tide were 10.4 cm/sec, and southwestward in ebb time, and 12.3 cm/sec, and north or northestward in flood time, respectively. The highest speed of the current was 19.4 cm/sec in ebb time, and 20 cm/sec in flood time respectively. The mean speed of the current in flood time was larger than that in ebb time. The velocity vector along the major axis of semidiurnal tide ($M_2$) component was 1.5 times larger than that of diurnal tide ($K_1$), The major directions of two compornants were northwestward and east-southeastward and residiual current were 3.25 cm/sec and northwestward-directed. Result of TGPS Buoy tracer for 3 days between Biyang-Do and Chgui-Do showed that the mean speed was 1.6 knot in ebb time and 1.3 knot in flood time. Direction of tidal was southwestward in ebb time and northeastward in flood time respectively. The maximum current speed was 4.8 knot in ebb time and 3.7 knot in flood time respectively. The mean speed and direction of tidal in of offshore were 1.7 knot and northwestward in flood time. The residual current appeared 0.3 knot northeastward.

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Seasonal Variation of Cr(VI)-contaminated Groundwater Quality and the Potential for Natural Attenuation (6가 크롬 오염 지하수 수질의 계절변화와 자연저감 가능성)

  • Chon, Chul-Min;Ahn, Joo-Sung;Roh, Yul;Rhee, Sung-Keun;Seo, Hyun-Hee;Kim, Gue-Young;Koh, Dong-Chan;Son, Young-Chul;Kim, Ji-Wook
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.645-655
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    • 2008
  • The Cr(VI) concentrations at the shallow aquifer well (MPH-0-1) of the Moonpyung groundwater monitoring station were in the range of 0.5 to 3.1 mg/L exceeding 10 to 62 times the guideline for drinking-water quality, indicating continuous contamination. However, Cr was not detected at the deep bedrock well and the other subsidiary monitoring wells except for MPH-1 and 6. Cross-correlation analyses were conducted for rainfall and groundwater level time series, resulting in the mean time of recharge after precipitation events to be 5.6 days. For rainy season, the water level was raised and the Cr(VI) concentration was several times lower than that during dry season at well MPH-0-1 well. Correlation of the Cr(VI) concentration with the groundwater-level showed that the Cr(VI) reduction was closely related with the groundwater-level rise in the well. However, the groundwater level rise during high water season induced the lateral migration of the Cr(VI)-contaminated groundwater at well MPH-4. We enriched and isolated a chromium reducing bacteria, Enterobacter aerogenes, from the Cr(VI)-contaminated groundwater in the wells MPH-0-1 and MPH-1. The bacteria may play an important role for immobilizing Cr(VI) in the Cr(VI)-contaminated groundwater. Therefore, the migration of the contaminant (Cr(VI) must has been restricted because of the natural attenuation by microbial reduction of Cr(VI) in the groundwater. This research suggests that the bioremediation of the Cr(VI)-contaminated groundwater by the indigenous bacteria may be feasible in the Cr(VI) contaminated groundwater.

Multi-task Learning Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Monitoring and Forecasting through Fusion of Geostationary Satellite Data and Numerical Forecasting Model Output (정지궤도 기상위성 및 수치예보모델 융합을 통한 Multi-task Learning 기반 태풍 강도 실시간 추정 및 예측)

  • Lee, Juhyun;Yoo, Cheolhee;Im, Jungho;Shin, Yeji;Cho, Dongjin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_3
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    • pp.1037-1051
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    • 2020
  • The accurate monitoring and forecasting of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) are able to effectively reduce the overall costs of disaster management. In this study, we proposed a multi-task learning (MTL) based deep learning model for real-time TC intensity estimation and forecasting with the lead time of 6-12 hours following the event, based on the fusion of geostationary satellite images and numerical forecast model output. A total of 142 TCs which developed in the Northwest Pacific from 2011 to 2016 were used in this study. The Communications system, the Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Meteorological Imager (MI) data were used to extract the images of typhoons, and the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) provided by the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was employed to extract air and ocean forecasting data. This study suggested two schemes with different input variables to the MTL models. Scheme 1 used only satellite-based input data while scheme 2 used both satellite images and numerical forecast modeling. As a result of real-time TC intensity estimation, Both schemes exhibited similar performance. For TC intensity forecasting with the lead time of 6 and 12 hours, scheme 2 improved the performance by 13% and 16%, respectively, in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) when compared to scheme 1. Relative root mean squared errors(rRMSE) for most intensity levels were lessthan 30%. The lower mean absolute error (MAE) and RMSE were found for the lower intensity levels of TCs. In the test results of the typhoon HALONG in 2014, scheme 1 tended to overestimate the intensity by about 20 kts at the early development stage. Scheme 2 slightly reduced the error, resulting in an overestimation by about 5 kts. The MTL models reduced the computational cost about 300% when compared to the single-tasking model, which suggested the feasibility of the rapid production of TC intensity forecasts.

A Study on the Paleomagnetism of Southern Korea since Permian (페름기(紀) 이후(以後) 한국(韓國)의 고지자기(古地磁氣)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Kwang Ho;Jeong, Bong II
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.67-83
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    • 1986
  • Oriented hand samples were collected from Gobangsan Formation and Nogam Formation in the north of Danyang and south of Yeongchun, from Bansong Group in and around Danyang, from Nampo Group in Chungnam Coalfield, from Gyeongsang Supergroup distributed from Waegwan through Daegu to Gyeongsan and from Daegu to Goryong, and from volcanic flows in Jeongog area and Jeju Island to study the paleomagnetism of southern Korea since Permian. Stepwise alternating field and thermal demagnetization experiments were carried out to determine optimum fields and temperatures. Observed mean paleomagnetic directions are as follows: $D=331.5^{\circ}$, $I=25.1^{\circ}$, $a95=12.8^{\circ}$ for Permian, $D=325.6^{\circ}$, $I=46.1^{\circ}$, $a95=11.8^{\circ}$ for Triassic, $D=313.4^{\circ}$, $I=43.1^{\circ}$, $a95=16.0^{\circ}$ for early Jurassic, $D=41.3^{\circ}$, $I=64.6^{\circ}$, $a95=4.5^{\circ}$ for early Cretaceous, $D=28.3^{\circ}$, $I=58.1^{\circ}$, $a95=2.3^{\circ}$ for late Cretaceous, $D=2.0^{\circ}$, $I=55.8^{\circ}$, $a95=6.6^{\circ}$for Quaternary. To describe the tectonic translocation of southern Korean block, northern Eurasian continental block was used as a reference frame. For each age since Permian the expected northern Eurasian field directions in terms of paleolatitude and declination were calculated. The paleolatitudes of Permian ($13.2^{\circ}N$) and early Jurassic ($25.1^{\circ}N$) obtained from the study area are quite different from those of Permian ($66.0^{\circ}N$) and early Jurassic ($68.1^{\circ}N$) which are expected for northern Eurasia. The declinations of Permian ($331.5^{\circ}$) and early Jurassic ($313.4^{\circ}$) are also quite different from those of the Permian ($56.6^{\circ}$) and the early Jurassic ($47.5^{\circ}$) expected for northern Eurasia. The Cretaceous paleolatitude is similar to the expected within error limit, but the declination for the same period is significantly different from that of the expected for the northern Eurasia. From the above evidences it is suggested that the south Korean land mass had moved from low latitude in Permian to north and sutured to northern continental block since early Jurassic. The relative rotations of early Cretaceous($27.4^{\circ}$) and late Cretaceous($10.8^{\circ}$) to northern Eurasian continent reveal that the Korean land mass might be rotated clockwise in two different times, probably in late Early Cretaceous and in Tertiary.

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Early Proterozoic Moyitic Series in Daqingshan, Inner Mongolia : Their Characteristics and Tectonis, Magmatic and Thermodynamic Model (내몽고 다큉샨내의 초기원생대 모이아이트계열 : 특성과 지구조, 마그마 그리고 열역학적 모델)

  • Lin CAO;Wei JIN
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.77-85
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    • 1997
  • The Early Proterozoic reworked rock association occurs within the Preacmbrian high grade metamorphic rocks in the area of Daqingshan, Inner Molgolia. In this association, the various large scale ductile deformation belts, form a nappe structure where the foliation steeply dips to north and the lineation ($340^{circ}-30^{\circ}$) plunges at $45^{\circ}55^{\circ}$. This result indicates the subduction/extension with northern part thrusting over the southern part at high angle. The southern subducted microlithon has the characteristics of prograde metamorphism. The northern thrusted microlithon shows the evidence of retrograde metamorphism with decreasing pressure and increasing temperature. The main rock types of Early Proterozoic Moyites are biotite adamellite and syenogranites occurring in the form of small batholiths or stocks and alkali-feldspar granites in veins. The biotite adamellites are progressively contacted with the Archean and Early Proterozoic rocks and contain a great deal of enclaves of metamorphosed rocks, suggesting an anatexis origin. The geochemical characteristics of moyites show the typical features of anatexis granite. At middle to late Early Proterozoic time, the continent-continent collision formed the large scale thrusting and imbrication of Archean basement rocks. According to the mineral assemblage and thermobarometer of Paria et al. (1988) give the following P-T condition : up-faulted block; $700-710^{\circ}C$, 0.72-0.78 Gpa (early stage) and $600^{\circ}C$, 0.44 Gpa (late stage), footwall block; $620^{\circ}C$, 0.8 Gpa (early stage), $620-840^{\circ}C$, 0.64-0.45 Gpa (peak) and $620-630^{\circ}C$, 0.35Gpa (late stage). These results suggest a clockwise P-T-t path (jin et al., 1991, 1994). According to the depth-temperature model in the comperature subduction zone and the experimental data of Wyllie et al. (1983), we propose a tectonic-magmatic-thermal model to account for metamorphism-anatexis of moyite occurring in subduction-shear zone.

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The Impact of BIS Regulation on Bank Behavior in Asset Management (신 BIS 자기자본규제가 은행자산운용행태에 미치는 영향)

  • Oh, Hyun-Tak;Choi, Seok-Gyu
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.171-198
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    • 2009
  • The primary purpose of this study is to examine the impact of new BIS regulation, which is the preparations to incorporate not only credit risk but also market and operation risk, on the bank behaviors. As methodology, SUR(seemingly unrelated regression) and pool unit test are used in the empirical analysis of banks survived in Korea. It is employed that quarterly data of BIS capital ratio, ratio of standard and below loans to total loans, ratio of liquid assets to liquid liabilities, allowances for credit losses, real GDP, yields of corporate bonds(3years, AA) covering the period of 2000Q1~2009Q1. As a result, it could be indicated that effectiveness and promoting improvements of BIS capital regulation policy as follows; First, it is explicitly seen that weight of lending had decreased and specific gravity of international investment had increased until before BIS regulation is built up a step for revised agreement in late 2001. Second, after more strengthening of BIS standard in late 2002, banks had a tendency to decrease the adjustment of assets weighted risk through issuing of national loan that is comparatively low profitability. Also, it is implicitly sought that BIS regulation is a bit of a factor to bring about credit crunch and then has become a bit of a factor of economic stagnation. Third, as the BIS regulation became hard, it let have a effort to raise the soundness of a credit loan because of selecting good debtor based on its credit ratings. Fourth, it should be arranged that the market disciplines, the effective superintendence system and the sound environment to be able to raise enormous bank capital easily, against the credit stringency and reinforce the soundness of banks etc. in Korea capital market.

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The Prediction of Currency Crises through Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 경제 위기 예측)

  • Lee, Hyoung Yong;Park, Jung Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.19-43
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    • 2016
  • This study examines the causes of the Asian exchange rate crisis and compares it to the European Monetary System crisis. In 1997, emerging countries in Asia experienced financial crises. Previously in 1992, currencies in the European Monetary System had undergone the same experience. This was followed by Mexico in 1994. The objective of this paper lies in the generation of useful insights from these crises. This research presents a comparison of South Korea, United Kingdom and Mexico, and then compares three different models for prediction. Previous studies of economic crisis focused largely on the manual construction of causal models using linear techniques. However, the weakness of such models stems from the prevalence of nonlinear factors in reality. This paper uses a structural equation model to analyze the causes, followed by a neural network model to circumvent the linear model's weaknesses. The models are examined in the context of predicting exchange rates In this paper, data were quarterly ones, and Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, Stock Index, Current Account, Foreign Reserves were independent variables for the prediction. However, time periods of each country's data are different. Lisrel is an emerging method and as such requires a fresh approach to financial crisis prediction model design, along with the flexibility to accommodate unexpected change. This paper indicates the neural network model has the greater prediction performance in Korea, Mexico, and United Kingdom. However, in Korea, the multiple regression shows the better performance. In Mexico, the multiple regression is almost indifferent to the Lisrel. Although Lisrel doesn't show the significant performance, the refined model is expected to show the better result. The structural model in this paper should contain the psychological factor and other invisible areas in the future work. The reason of the low hit ratio is that the alternative model in this paper uses only the financial market data. Thus, we cannot consider the other important part. Korea's hit ratio is lower than that of United Kingdom. So, there must be the other construct that affects the financial market. So does Mexico. However, the United Kingdom's financial market is more influenced and explained by the financial factors than Korea and Mexico.

Grand Circulation Process of Beach Cusp and its Seasonal Variation at the Mang-Bang Beach from the Perspective of Trapped Mode Edge Waves as the Driving Mechanism of Beach Cusp Formation (맹방해안에서 관측되는 Beach Cusp의 일 년에 걸친 대순환 과정과 계절별 특성 - 여러 생성기작 중 포획모드 Edge Waves를 중심으로)

  • Cho, Yong Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.265-277
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    • 2019
  • Using the measured data of waves and shore-line, we reviewed the grand circulation process and seasonal variation of beach cusp at the Mang-Bang beach from the perspective of trapped mode Edge waves known as the driving mechanism of beach cusp. In order to track the temporal and spatial variation trends of beach cusp, we quantify the beach cusp in terms of its wave length and amplitude detected by threshold crossing method. In doing so, we also utilize the spectral analysis method and its associated spectral mean sand wave number. From repeated period of convergence and ensuing splitting of sand waves detected from the yearly time series of spectral mean sand wave number of beach cusp, it is shown that the grand circulation process of beach cusp at Mang-Bang beach are occurring twice from 2017. 4. 26 to 2018. 4. 20. For the case of beach area, it increased by $14,142m^2$ during this period, and the shore-line advanced by 18 m at the northen and southern parts of the Mang-Bang beach whereas the shore-line advanced by 2.4 m at the central parts of Mang-Bang beach. It is also worthy of note that the beach area rapidly increased by $30,345m^2$ from 2017.11.26. to 2017.12.22. which can be attributed to the nature of coming waves. During this period, mild swells of long period were prevailing, and their angle of attack were next to zero. These characteristics of waves imply that the main transport mode of sediment would be the cross-shore. Considering the facts that self-healing capacity of natural beaches is realized via the cross-shore sediment once temporarily eroded. it can be easily deduced that the sediment carried by the boundary layer streaming toward the shore under mild swells which normally incident toward the Mang-Bang beach makes the beach area rapidly increase from 2017.11.26. to 2017.12.22.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.