• Title/Summary/Keyword: 시계열모델

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Simulations of the Effect of Flow Control and Phosphate Loading on the Reduction of Algae Biomass in Gangjeong-Goryong Weir (유량 조절과 인 부하 변동에 따른 강정고령보 조류저감 효과 수치 모의)

  • Park, Dae-Yeon;Kim, Sung-Jin;Park, Hyung-Seok;Chung, Se-Woong
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.507-524
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to validate the EFDC model for the weir pool of Gangjeong-Goryong Weir located in Nakdong River, and evaluate the effect of flow control and phosphate loading reduction on the water quality and algae biomass by group (Diatom, Green, Cyanobacteria). As a result of model validation using 2018 experimental data,the time series of water level and vertical distribution of water temperature, DO, organic matter, nitrogen, and phosphorus time series were properly simulated. Seasonal fluctuations of algae biomass by group were adequately reproduced, but the deviations between measured and simulated values were significant in some periods. As a result of scenario simulations to control the water level and flow rate, the thermal stratification was resolved as the water level was lowered and the flow rate increased. The flow velocity at which the water temperature stratification was resolved was about 0.1 m/s, which is consistent with the previous study results of Baekje Weir in Geum River. Simulations of the 2Q flow scenario showed that Chl-a decreased by 8.7% and the cell density of diatom and green algae declined. The cell density of cyanobacteria increased, however, because the high concentrations of cyanobacteria in the upstream boundary conditions directly affected downstream due to increased flow velocity. In the scenario simulation of reducing the influent phosphate load concentration (average 0.056 mg/L) to 50%, Chl-a decreased by 13.6%.The results suggest that the upstream algae concentration and phosphorus load reduction should be considered simultaneously with hydraulic control to prevent algal overgrowth of Gangjeong-Goryong Weir.

A Comparative Analysis of the Forecasting Performance of Coal and Iron Ore in Gwangyang Port Using Stepwise Regression and Artificial Neural Network Model (단계적 회귀분석과 인공신경망 모형을 이용한 광양항 석탄·철광석 물동량 예측력 비교 분석)

  • Cho, Sang-Ho;Nam, Hyung-Sik;Ryu, Ki-Jin;Ryoo, Dong-Keun
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.187-194
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    • 2020
  • It is very important to forecast freight volume accurately to establish major port policies and future operation plans. Thus, related studies are being conducted because of this importance. In this paper, stepwise regression analysis and artificial neural network model were analyzed to compare the predictive power of each model on Gwangyang Port, the largest domestic port for coal and iron ore transportation. Data of a total of 121 months J anuary 2009-J anuary 2019 were used. Factors affecting coal and iron ore trade volume were selected and classified into supply-related factors and market/economy-related factors. In the stepwise regression analysis, the tonnage of ships entering the port, coal price, and dollar exchange rate were selected as the final variables in case of the Gwangyang Port coal volume forecasting model. In the iron ore volume forecasting model, the tonnage of ships entering the port and the price of iron ore were selected as the final variables. In the analysis using the artificial neural network model, trial-and-error method that various Hyper-parameters affecting the performance of the model were selected to identify the most optimal model used. The analysis results showed that the artificial neural network model had better predictive performance than the stepwise regression analysis. The model which showed the most excellent performance was the Gwangyang Port Coal Volume Forecasting Artificial Neural Network Model. In comparing forecasted values by various predictive models and actually measured values, the artificial neural network model showed closer values to the actual highest point and the lowest point than the stepwise regression analysis.

Temporal Data Mining Framework (시간 데이타마이닝 프레임워크)

  • Lee, Jun-Uk;Lee, Yong-Jun;Ryu, Geun-Ho
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.9D no.3
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    • pp.365-380
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    • 2002
  • Temporal data mining, the incorporation of temporal semantics to existing data mining techniques, refers to a set of techniques for discovering implicit and useful temporal knowledge from large quantities of temporal data. Temporal knowledge, expressible in the form of rules, is knowledge with temporal semantics and relationships, such as cyclic pattern, calendric pattern, trends, etc. There are many examples of temporal data, including patient histories, purchaser histories, and web log that it can discover useful temporal knowledge from. Many studies on data mining have been pursued and some of them have involved issues of temporal data mining for discovering temporal knowledge from temporal data, such as sequential pattern, similar time sequence, cyclic and temporal association rules, etc. However, all of the works treated data in database at best as data series in chronological order and did not consider temporal semantics and temporal relationships containing data. In order to solve this problem, we propose a theoretical framework for temporal data mining. This paper surveys the work to date and explores the issues involved in temporal data mining. We then define a model for temporal data mining and suggest SQL-like mining language with ability to express the task of temporal mining and show architecture of temporal mining system.

Online Signature Verification by Visualization of Dynamic Characteristics using New Pattern Transform Technique (동적 특성의 시각화를 수행하는 새로운 패턴변환 기법에 의한 온라인 서명인식 기술)

  • Chi Suyoung;Lee Jaeyeon;Oh Weongeun;Kim Changhun
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.32 no.7
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    • pp.663-673
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    • 2005
  • An analysis model for the dynamics information of two-dimensional time-series patterns is described. In the proposed model, two novel transforms that visualize the dynamic characteristics are proposed. The first transform, referred to as speed equalization, reproduces a time-series pattern assuming a constant linear velocity to effectively model the temporal characteristics of the signing process. The second transform, referred to as velocity transform, maps the signal onto a horizontal vs. vertical velocity plane where the variation oi the velocities over time is represented as a visible shape. With the transforms, the dynamic characteristics in the original signing process are reflected in the shape of the transformed patterns. An analysis in the context of these shapes then naturally results in an effective analysis of the dynamic characteristics. The proposed transform technique is applied to an online signature verification problem for evaluation. Experimenting on a large signature database, the performance evaluated in EER(Equal Error Rate) was improved to 1.17$\%$ compared to 1.93$\%$ of the traditional signature verification algorithm in which no transformed patterns are utilized. In the case of skilled forgery experiments, the improvement was more outstanding; it was demonstrated that the parameter set extracted from the transformed patterns was more discriminative in rejecting forgeries

Development of daily spatio-temporal downscaling model with conditional Copula based bias-correction of GloSea5 monthly ensemble forecasts (조건부 Copula 함수 기반의 월단위 GloSea5 앙상블 예측정보 편의보정 기법과 연계한 일단위 시공간적 상세화 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Yong-Tak;Kim, Min Ji;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.1317-1328
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to provide a predictive model based on climate models for simulating continuous daily rainfall sequences by combining bias-correction and spatio-temporal downscaling approaches. For these purposes, this study proposes a combined modeling system by applying conditional Copula and Multisite Non-stationary Hidden Markov Model (MNHMM). The GloSea5 system releases the monthly rainfall prediction on the same day every week, however, there are noticeable differences in the updated prediction. It was confirmed that the monthly rainfall forecasts are effectively updated with the use of the Copula-based bias-correction approach. More specifically, the proposed bias-correction approach was validated for the period from 1991 to 2010 under the LOOCV scheme. Several rainfall statistics, such as rainfall amounts, consecutive rainfall frequency, consecutive zero rainfall frequency, and wet days, are well reproduced, which is expected to be highly effective as input data of the hydrological model. The difference in spatial coherence between the observed and simulated rainfall sequences over the entire weather stations was estimated in the range of -0.02~0.10, and the interdependence between rainfall stations in the watershed was effectively reproduced. Therefore, it is expected that the hydrological response of the watershed will be more realistically simulated when used as input data for the hydrological model.

Prediction of Traffic Congestion in Seoul by Deep Neural Network (심층인공신경망(DNN)과 다각도 상황 정보 기반의 서울시 도로 링크별 교통 혼잡도 예측)

  • Kim, Dong Hyun;Hwang, Kee Yeon;Yoon, Young
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.44-57
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    • 2019
  • Various studies have been conducted to solve traffic congestions in many metropolitan cities through accurate traffic flow prediction. Most studies are based on the assumption that past traffic patterns repeat in the future. Models based on such an assumption fall short in case irregular traffic patterns abruptly occur. Instead, the approaches such as predicting traffic pattern through big data analytics and artificial intelligence have emerged. Specifically, deep learning algorithms such as RNN have been prevalent for tackling the problems of predicting temporal traffic flow as a time series. However, these algorithms do not perform well in terms of long-term prediction. In this paper, we take into account various external factors that may affect the traffic flows. We model the correlation between the multi-dimensional context information with temporal traffic speed pattern using deep neural networks. Our model trained with the traffic data from TOPIS system by Seoul, Korea can predict traffic speed on a specific date with the accuracy reaching nearly 90%. We expect that the accuracy can be improved further by taking into account additional factors such as accidents and constructions for the prediction.

Classification Method of Multi-State Appliances in Non-intrusive Load Monitoring Environment based on Gramian Angular Field (Gramian angular field 기반 비간섭 부하 모니터링 환경에서의 다중 상태 가전기기 분류 기법)

  • Seon, Joon-Ho;Sun, Young-Ghyu;Kim, Soo-Hyun;Kyeong, Chanuk;Sim, Issac;Lee, Heung-Jae;Kim, Jin-Young
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.183-191
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    • 2021
  • Non-intrusive load monitoring is a technology that can be used for predicting and classifying the type of appliances through real-time monitoring of user power consumption, and it has recently got interested as a means of energy-saving. In this paper, we propose a system for classifying appliances from user consumption data by combining GAF(Gramian angular field) technique that can be used for converting one-dimensional data to the two-dimensional matrix with convolutional neural networks. We use REDD(residential energy disaggregation dataset) that is the public appliances power data and confirm the classification accuracy of the GASF(Gramian angular summation field) and GADF(Gramian angular difference field). Simulation results show that both models showed 94% accuracy on appliances with binary-state(on/off) and that GASF showed 93.5% accuracy that is 3% higher than GADF on appliances with multi-state. In later studies, we plan to increase the dataset and optimize the model to improve accuracy and speed.

A Study on Stock Trading Method based on Volatility Breakout Strategy using a Deep Neural Network (심층 신경망을 이용한 변동성 돌파 전략 기반 주식 매매 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Yi, Eunu;Lee, Won-Boo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.81-93
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    • 2022
  • The stock investing is one of the most popular investment techniques. However, since it is not easy to obtain a return through actual investment, various strategies have been devised and tried in the past to obtain an effective and stable return. Among them, the volatility breakout strategy identifies a strong uptrend that exceeds a certain level on a daily basis as a breakout signal, follows the uptrend, and quickly earns daily returns. It is one of the popular investment strategies that are widely used to realize profits. However, it is difficult to predict stock prices by understanding the price trend pattern of stocks. In this paper, we propose a method of buying and selling stocks by predicting the return in trading based on the volatility breakout strategy using a bi-directional long short-term memory deep neural network that can realize a return in a short period of time. As a result of the experiment assuming actual trading on the test data with the learned model, it can be seen that the results outperform both the return and stability compared to the existing closing price prediction model using the long-short-term memory deep neural network model.

A Data-driven Classifier for Motion Detection of Soldiers on the Battlefield using Recurrent Architectures and Hyperparameter Optimization (순환 아키텍쳐 및 하이퍼파라미터 최적화를 이용한 데이터 기반 군사 동작 판별 알고리즘)

  • Joonho Kim;Geonju Chae;Jaemin Park;Kyeong-Won Park
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.107-119
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    • 2023
  • The technology that recognizes a soldier's motion and movement status has recently attracted large attention as a combination of wearable technology and artificial intelligence, which is expected to upend the paradigm of troop management. The accuracy of state determination should be maintained at a high-end level to make sure of the expected vital functions both in a training situation; an evaluation and solution provision for each individual's motion, and in a combat situation; overall enhancement in managing troops. However, when input data is given as a timer series or sequence, existing feedforward networks would show overt limitations in maximizing classification performance. Since human behavior data (3-axis accelerations and 3-axis angular velocities) handled for military motion recognition requires the process of analyzing its time-dependent characteristics, this study proposes a high-performance data-driven classifier which utilizes the long-short term memory to identify the order dependence of acquired data, learning to classify eight representative military operations (Sitting, Standing, Walking, Running, Ascending, Descending, Low Crawl, and High Crawl). Since the accuracy is highly dependent on a network's learning conditions and variables, manual adjustment may neither be cost-effective nor guarantee optimal results during learning. Therefore, in this study, we optimized hyperparameters using Bayesian optimization for maximized generalization performance. As a result, the final architecture could reduce the error rate by 62.56% compared to the existing network with a similar number of learnable parameters, with the final accuracy of 98.39% for various military operations.

Effects of Spatio-temporal Features of Dynamic Hand Gestures on Learning Accuracy in 3D-CNN (3D-CNN에서 동적 손 제스처의 시공간적 특징이 학습 정확성에 미치는 영향)

  • Yeongjee Chung
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.145-151
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    • 2023
  • 3D-CNN is one of the deep learning techniques for learning time series data. Such three-dimensional learning can generate many parameters, so that high-performance machine learning is required or can have a large impact on the learning rate. When learning dynamic hand-gestures in spatiotemporal domain, it is necessary for the improvement of the efficiency of dynamic hand-gesture learning with 3D-CNN to find the optimal conditions of input video data by analyzing the learning accuracy according to the spatiotemporal change of input video data without structural change of the 3D-CNN model. First, the time ratio between dynamic hand-gesture actions is adjusted by setting the learning interval of image frames in the dynamic hand-gesture video data. Second, through 2D cross-correlation analysis between classes, similarity between image frames of input video data is measured and normalized to obtain an average value between frames and analyze learning accuracy. Based on this analysis, this work proposed two methods to effectively select input video data for 3D-CNN deep learning of dynamic hand-gestures. Experimental results showed that the learning interval of image data frames and the similarity of image frames between classes can affect the accuracy of the learning model.