• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.388-390
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• 2006

투자안 가치평가 방법에는 화폐의 시간가치를 고려한 방법과 고려하지 않는 방법이 있다. 이중 가장 많이 쓰이고, 중요한 방법으로는 화폐의 시간 가치를 고려한 순현재가치법(NPV), 내부수익률법(IRR), 수익성지표법(Pl)등이 있다. 이중에서도 우리는 투자사업으로부터 사업의 최종년도까지 얻게 되는 순이익(수익-비용)의 흐름을 현재가치로 계산하는NPV 분석을 많이 실시하고 있다. 즉, 어떤 자산의 NPV가 0보다 크면 투자 시 기업가치의 순증가가 발생하므로 투자가치가 있는 것으로 평가하고 0보다 작으면 기업가치의 순감소가 발생하므로 투자가치가 없는 것으로 평가한다. 여기에서 많은 기업경영자 및 재무담당자들은 다음과 같은 의문을 갖고 NPV분석의 약점을 보안할 필요성을 제기하고 있다. “결과로부터 얻은 단일 값이 정말 신뢰할 만한 값인가?”, “만약 몇 가지의 리스크 요인이 우리의 사업모델에 영향을 미친다면 그 결과는 어떻게 달라질 것인가?”, “우리가 얻은 결과 값의 실현 가능성은 몇%이고 나머지 발생 가능한 값들의 분포는 어떻게 될 것인가?” 위 질문에 대한 답을 얻을 수 있다면 투자안에 대해 빠르고 올바른 의사결정을 내릴 수 있으며 실패의 위험을 줄일 수 있다 이런 분석을 가능하게 해 주는 것이 확률론적 분석이며, 즉 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션 기법이다. 이미 많은 선진 기업에서 이 방법을 통하여 모든 의사결정에 중요한 참고 자료로 이용하고 있으며 본 논문은 몬테카를로 분석의 대표적인 소프트웨어인 Crystal Ball을 이용하여 그 활용 사례를 소개하고자 한다.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.39-50
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• 2014

After the global financial crisis, domestic construction industry has gone through a rapid recession. This resulted in gradual market shift towards architectural remodeling. Architectural remodeling not only improves residential environment but it has many advantages such as increase of each unit's exclusive area, free space within the horizontal or extension of an annex building, and increase number of household through splitting the household of bigger pyeong, etc. However, in case of the Korean market for apartment remodeling, due to various regulations and problem with business promotion procedures, majority of business is slow despite the figure that remodeling volume is not that small. Also, feasibility study which decides to push ahead public house remodeling business will have a flaw using net present value's law; it has a flaw of not considering properties of each phase of remodeling business and future's uncertainty. Hence, this research will improve the problem of traditional value assessment method of net present value's law. It will also consider one of the real options such as binomial model in order to supplement NPV which is used in current feasibility study. This research was based on real successful cases of public house remodeling and it was possible for feasibility study which was more realistic and valid. This research provided foundation for development of Korean public house remodeling market. There is high anticipation of increasing the validity by improving the problems of current feasibility study and economic efficiency assessment.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.1-14
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• 2015

This study utilizes Monte Carlo simulation to forecast the time charter rate of vessels, the three-month Libor interest rate, and the ship demolition price, to mitigate future uncertainties involving these factors. The simulation was performed 10,000 times to obtain an exact result. For the empirical analysis - based on considerations in ordering ships in 2010-a comparison between the Monte Carlo simulation-based stochastic discounted cash flow (DCF) method and traditional DCF methods was made. The analysis revealed that the net present value obtained through Monte Carlo simulation was lower than that obtained via regular DCF methods, alerting the owners to risks and preventing them from placing injudicious orders for ships. This research has implications in reducing the uncertainties that future shipping markets face, through the use of a stochastic DCF approach with relevant variables and probability methods.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.14 no.11
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• pp.5465-5475
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• 2013

In this study, when to invest in real estate abroad, to present a real option in the way of decision-making. Thus, by using the binomial option model of one of the real thing and DCF, we compared the choice of real estate investment in China and South Korea. Research concerns the real estate market of Shanghai and Seoul, Analyzed the data between 2001-2009. Results were calculated NPV investment period (Net Present Value), Seoul appears in 435.44, Shanghai was 398.26. Investment decision by NPV method will select Seoul. However, as a result of calculating the value using the real option, it was found that for Seoul appear in 615.4, Shanghai has been shown to 626.1, and is suitable for investment in Shanghai. Assuming on the basis of this, that it has invested in practice, and compare the results, Seoul is intended for since 2010, real estate prices fell to 2013 currently, damage has occurred, profit's occurred Shanghai. This ensures that when making decisions in real estate investment and to use the real option than the existing DCF is appropriate.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.75-86
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• 2007

This paper presents the overall valuation framework of the Army Tactical Command Information System(ATCIS) with its empirical data which is developed by the ROK Army in 2005 with its own R&D efforts over the past 10 years. The valuation with the appropriate methods is conducted through the full and relentless support of ROK Army HQs, defense agencies, and related firms. And the results include both qualitative and quantitative values of the ATCIS in perspectives of economic, technical, and defense strength effects. As a result, the development of ATCIS is valued over 1.7291 trillion Won which is over 6.55 times benefit and cost ratio comparing with other country's similar system. The worth of this paper includes the actual framework and methods to apply the valuation of other weapon systems and its preliminary research, defense offset valuation, performance evaluation and others.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.110 no.3
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• pp.453-461
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• 2021

The energy use of forest biomass is crucial to deal with climate change and achieve the carbon-neutral goal. This study aims to analyze the economic feasibility of forest biomass thermal energy facilities and calculate the optimal subsidy level of heat supply to ensure continued operation of the facilities. To achieve this aim, the net present value approach (NPV) and call option price model are adopted considering wood chip price volatilities. The Forest Energy Self-Sufficient Village Project financed by Korea Forest Service is considered as the research case study. In our analysis, when 50% of the initial investment is given to the subsidies and RECs are applied to only power generation, NPV and IRR are both negative and the investment value using the real option model is also zero. We concluded that some heat subsidies should be acknowledged to keep the facilities operating. Besides, the simulation results reveal reliable economic values when the heating subsidy is priced at KRW 0.0248 per kcal.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.446-446
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• 2023

우리나라는 물의 재이용 촉진 및 지원에 관한 법률에 따라 수자원의 지속 가능한 이용을 목적으로 빗물이용시설의 설치 및 운영을 법·제도적으로 의무화하고 있으며, 위 법에 근거하여 지방자치단체에서는 빗물이용시설의 설치를 장려하기 위한 재정 지원 정책을 시행하고 있다. 환경 투자사업의 일환인 빗물이용시설 설치 사업은 장기간에 대한 경제성 분석이 요구되며, 분석에 이용된 경제성 분석 방법 및 사회적 할인율에 따라 분석 결과가 상이할 수 있다. 이에 따라, 이 연구에서는 순현재가치와 편익-비용 비율을 비교·검토하여 빗물이용시설의 경제성 분석에 적합한 방법을 제시하였으며, 경제성 분석에서 불확실한 요소인 사회적 할인율과 물가상승률에 대한 민감도 분석을 통해 두 요소의 불확실성을 평가하였다. 분석 대상 시설은 인천 청라지구 1공구에 계획된 빗물이용시설이며, 경제성 분석 기간은 지방공기업법 시행규칙에 제시된 건축물의 내용 연수인 30년으로 하였다. 편익-비용 비율을 이용하여 빗물이용시설의 경제성을 분석한 결과, 저류용량이 285 m³에서 최대 수익률이 나타났으며, 순현재가치는 저류용량이 1105 m³일 때 최대 수익이 발생하는 것으로 분석되었다. 분석 대상 지역의 경우에 285 m³에 대한 양적 신뢰도는 7.3%로 빗물이용시설의 효과를 기대하기 어려운 결과이며, 이와 같은 결과는 편익-비용 비율이 사업의 경제성을 수익률로 평가함에 따라 투자 규모를 반영하지 않는 한계로 인한 것으로 판단된다. 사회적 할인율과물가상승률에 대한 민감도 분석 결과, 사회적 할인율이 낮아지고 물가상승률이 높아짐에 따라 빗물이용시설의 저류용량과 그에 상응하는 최대 순현재가치가 커지는 경향을 보였다. 이는 미래가치를 높게 평가할수록 빗물이용시설의 저류용량이 크게 설계될 수 있음을 의미한다.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.299-308
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• 2022

Recent, energy transition policies are driving to increase in the number of small photovoltaic(PV) generators. It is difficult for system operators to accurately anticipate the amount of power generated from such small scale PV generation, and this may disrupt dispatch schedules and result in an increase in cost. The need for a Virtual Power Plant(VPP) is emerging as a way of resolving these problems, as it would integrate small-scale PV plants and eliminate uncertainty about the amount of power generated, control voltage, and provide power reserves. In this paper, the cost evaluation methods are described for determination of VPP cloud charges both Net Present Value(NPV) method and Profitability Index(PI) method, the calculated outcomes of the two types of cost evaluation methods are presented in detail. It seems we secure profitability as we get 1.22 of profitability index from calculation results, it may be attractive for the aggregator as NPV is enough for satisfying profitability.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.95-107
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• 2022

Shipping companies earn profits through cargo transportation, and therefore, investment decisions to purchase ships are more important than anything else. Nevertheless, the cash flow discount method was mainly used in the economic analysis method, which assumes that all situations are static. This study shows that the real option model is useful in the economic analysis of ship investment. This economic analysis took into account the irreversibility of investment and uncertainty of benefits. In particular, this study used a binary option price determination model among real options. In addition, the simulation was conducted using actual investment data of A shipping company. As a result of the analysis, the investment value of used ships according to the net present value method was analyzed as negative (-), but the investment value in the real option model reflecting the flexibility of decision-making was evaluated as having positive (+) economic feasibility. It was analyzed that economic feasibility is affected by profit volatility and discount rate. Therefore, this study is expected to help shipping companies make more flexible decisions by using the real option model along with the existing net present value method when making ship investment decisions.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.22 no.8
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• pp.274-287
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• 2022

Competition in the broadcasting market is intensifying as OTT services are spreading. And Korea is positioned as a competent international contents supply base. This can be helpful for the domestic contents production industry. However, it can result in being incorporated as a subcontractor in the global video industry. Therefore, it is necessary for Korean OTT operators to expand their market upto overseas and maintain competitiveness by linking content competitiveness to the sales expansion. This study was conducted to reduce the risk and encourage implementation through feasibility analysis of overseas business of domestic OTT operators. The North American market was selected as a region with high potential through in-depth interviews with experts and literatures review. And it was confirmed that the partnership with local platform is effective. Then, the sales and input costs were estimated, and business was evaluated using the net present value method. Totally 18 scenarios were created using multiple estimates for copyright cost, subscribers, and rate, which are highly uncertain. From the analyses, 8 scenarios were found to be acceptable. And copyright cost has the greatest impact on business success, followed by rates and subscribers.