• Title/Summary/Keyword: 수치예보모델

Search Result 145, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

Sensitivity Analysis of Satellite BUV Ozone Profile Retrievals on Meteorological Parameter Errors (기상 입력장 오차에 대한 자외선 오존 프로파일 산출 알고리즘 민감도 분석)

  • Shin, Daegeun;Bak, Juseon;Kim, Jae Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.34 no.3
    • /
    • pp.481-494
    • /
    • 2018
  • The accurate radiative transfer model simulation is essential for an accurate ozone profile retrieval using optimal estimation from backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) measurement. The input parameters of the radiative transfer model are the main factors that determine the model accuracy. In particular, meteorological parameters such as temperature and surface pressure have a direct effect on simulating radiation spectrum as a component for calculating ozone absorption cross section and Rayleigh scattering. Hence, a sensitivity of UV ozone profile retrievals to these parameters has been investigated using radiative transfer model. The surface pressure shows an average error within 100 hPa in the daily / monthly climatological data based on the numerical weather prediction model, and the calculated ozone retrieval error is less than 0.2 DU for each layer. On the other hand, the temperature shows an error of 1-7K depending on the observation station and altitude for the same daily / monthly climatological data, and the calculated ozone retrieval error is about 4 DU for each layer. These results can help to understand the obtained vertical ozone information from satellite. In addition, they are expected to be used effectively in selecting the meteorological input data and establishing the system design direction in the process of applying the algorithm to satellite operation.

Forecast and verification of perceived temperature using a mesoscale model over the Korean Peninsula during 2007 summer (중규모 수치 모델 자료를 이용한 2007년 여름철 한반도 인지온도 예보와 검증)

  • Byon, Jae-Young;Kim, Jiyoung;Choi, Byoung-Cheol;Choi, Young-Jean
    • Atmosphere
    • /
    • v.18 no.3
    • /
    • pp.237-248
    • /
    • 2008
  • A thermal index which considers metabolic heat generation of human body is proposed for operational forecasting. The new thermal index, Perceived Temperature (PT), is forecasted using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model and validated. Forecasted PT shows the characteristics of diurnal variation and topographic and latitudinal effect. Statistical skill scores such as correlation, bias, and RMSE are employed for objective verification of PT and input meteorological variables which are used for calculating PT. Verification result indicates that the accuracy of air temperature and wind forecast is higher in the initial forecast time, while relative humidity is improved as the forecast time increases. The forecasted PT during 2007 summer is lower than PT calculated by observation data. The predicted PT has a minimum Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) of $7-8^{\circ}C$ at 9-18 hour forecast. Spatial distribution of PT shows that it is overestimated in western region, while PT in middle-eastern region is underestimated due to strong wind and low temperature forecast. Underestimation of wind speed and overestimation of relative humidity have caused higher PT than observation in southern region. The predicted PT from the mesoscale model gives appropriate information as a thermal index forecast. This study suggests that forecasted PT is applicable to the prediction of health warning based on the relationship between PT and mortality.

Development of statistical forecast model for PM10 concentration over Seoul (서울지역 PM10 농도 예측모형 개발)

  • Sohn, Keon Tae;Kim, Dahong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.26 no.2
    • /
    • pp.289-299
    • /
    • 2015
  • The objective of the present study is to develop statistical quantitative forecast model for PM10 concentration over Seoul. We used three types of data (weather observation data in Korea, the China's weather observation data collected by GTS, and air quality numerical model forecasts). To apply the daily forecast system, hourly data are converted to daily data and then lagging was performed. The potential predictors were selected based on correlation analysis and multicollinearity check. Model validation has been performed for checking model stability. We applied two models (multiple regression model and threshold regression model) separately. The two models were compared based on the scatter plot of forecasts and observations, time series plots, RMSE, skill scores. As a result, a threshold regression model performs better than multiple regression model in high PM10 concentration cases.

Local Fine Grid Sea Wind Prediction for Maritime Traffic (해상교통을 위한 국지정밀 해상풍 예측)

  • Park, Kwang-Soon;Jun, Ki-Cheon;Kwon, Jae-Il;Heo, Ki-Young
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
    • /
    • 2009.06a
    • /
    • pp.449-451
    • /
    • 2009
  • Sea level rise and increase of the typhoon/hurricane intensity due to global warming have threaten coastal areas for residential and industrial and have been widely studied. In this study we showed our recent efforts on sea wind which is one of critical factors for safe maritime traffic and prediction for storm surges and waves. Currently, most of numerical weather models in korea do not have sufficient spatial and temporal resolutions, therefore we set up a find grid(about 9km) sea wind prediction system that predicts every 12 hours for three day using Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF). This system covers adjacent seas around korean peninsula Comparisons of two observed data, Ieodo Ocean Research station(IORS) and Yellow Sea Buoy(YSB), showed reasonable agreements and by data assimilation we will improve better accurate sea winds in near future.

  • PDF

Performance Improvement of Cumulus Parameterization Code by Unicon Optimization Scheme (Unicon Optimization 기법을 이용한 적운모수화 코드 성능 향상)

  • Lee, Chang-Hyun;kim, Min-gyu;Shin, Dae-Yeong;Cho, Ye-Rin;Yeom, Gi-Hun;Chung, Sung-Wook
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
    • /
    • v.15 no.2
    • /
    • pp.124-133
    • /
    • 2022
  • With the development of hardware technology and the advancement of numerical model methods, more precise weather forecasts can be carried out. In this paper, we propose a Unicon Optimization scheme combining Loop Vectorization, Dependency Vectorization, and Code Modernization to optimize and increase Maintainability the Unicon source contained in SCAM, a simplified version of CESM, and present an overall SCAM structure. This paper tested the unicorn optimization scheme in the SCAM structure, and compared to the existing source code, the loop vectorization resulted in a performance improvement of 3.086% and the dependency vectorization of 0.4572%. And in the case of Unicorn Optimization, which applied all of these, the performance improvement was 3.457% compared to the existing source code. This proves that the Unicorn Optimization technique proposed in this paper provides excellent performance.

The Improvement of Computational Efficiency in KIM by an Adaptive Time-step Algorithm (적응시간 간격 알고리즘을 이용한 KIM의 계산 효율성 개선)

  • Hyun Nam;Suk-Jin Choi
    • Atmosphere
    • /
    • v.33 no.4
    • /
    • pp.331-341
    • /
    • 2023
  • A numerical forecasting models usually predict future states by performing time integration considering fixed static time-steps. A time-step that is too long can cause model instability and failure of forecast simulation, and a time-step that is too short can cause unnecessary time integration calculations. Thus, in numerical models, the time-step size can be determined by the CFL (Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy)-condition, and this condition acts as a necessary condition for finding a numerical solution. A static time-step is defined as using the same fixed time-step for time integration. On the other hand, applying a different time-step for each integration while guaranteeing the stability of the solution in time advancement is called an adaptive time-step. The adaptive time-step algorithm is a method of presenting the maximum usable time-step suitable for each integration based on the CFL-condition for the adaptive time-step. In this paper, the adaptive time-step algorithm is applied for the Korean Integrated Model (KIM) to determine suitable parameters used for the adaptive time-step algorithm through the monthly verifications of 10-day simulations (during January and July 2017) at about 12 km resolution. By comparing the numerical results obtained by applying the 25 second static time-step to KIM in Supercomputer 5 (Nurion), it shows similar results in terms of forecast quality, presents the maximum available time-step for each integration, and improves the calculation efficiency by reducing the number of total time integrations by 19%.

Dual-mode diagnosis system for water quality and corrosion in pipe using convolutional neural networks (CNN) and ultrasound (합성곱 신경망과 초음파 기반 상수도관 수질 및 부식 분석용 이중모드 진단 시스템)

  • So Yeon Moon;Hyeon-Ju Jeon;Yeongho Sung;Min-Seo Kim;Daehun Kim;Jaeyeop Choi;Junghwan Oh;O-Joun Lee;Hae Gyun Lim
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
    • /
    • 2023.11a
    • /
    • pp.685-686
    • /
    • 2023
  • 상수도관의 수질 및 부식도 검사에는 파이프에 손상을 입히지 않고 지속적인 방법이 필요하다. 초음파는 이를 만족하면서 상태를 확인할 수 있고 주파수가 높을수록 해상도가 좋아져 정밀한 측정이 가능하다는 장점이 있다. 이러한 특성을 이용해 상수도관 모니터링 시스템으로 초음파 기반의 Scanning Acoustic Microscopy(SAM)과 Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)을 사용하는 새로운 방법을 제안한다. 기존의 Non-Destructive Testing(NDT)방식의 단점을 보완하면서 더 높은 해상도로 상수도관을 점검하는 방식으로, SAM 을 이용하여 부식으로 인한 파이프 두께 변화와 부유물의 여부 및 수질을 동시에 감지하고 얻은 데이터를 CNN 으로 분석했다. CNN 의 높은 정확도 결과로 이 시스템의 파이프 부식도 및 수질 모니터링에 대한 적합성을 보여주었다.

Sensitivity of Simulated Water Temperature to Vertical Mixing Scheme and Water Turbidity in the Yellow Sea (수직 혼합 모수화 기법과 탁도에 따른 황해 수온 민감도 실험)

  • Kwak, Myeong-Taek;Seo, Gwang-Ho;Choi, Byoung-Ju;Kim, Chang-Sin;Cho, Yang-Ki
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
    • /
    • v.18 no.3
    • /
    • pp.111-121
    • /
    • 2013
  • Accurate prediction of sea water temperature has been emphasized to make precise local weather forecast and to understand change of ecosystem. The Yellow Sea, which has turbid water and strong tidal current, is an unique shallow marginal sea. It is essential to include the effects of the turbidity and the strong tidal mixing for the realistic simulation of temperature distribution in the Yellow Sea. Evaluation of ocean circulation model response to vertical mixing scheme and turbidity is primary objective of this study. Three-dimensional ocean circulation model(Regional Ocean Modeling System) was used to perform numerical simulations. Mellor- Yamada level 2.5 closure (M-Y) and K-Profile Parameterization (KPP) scheme were selected for vertical mixing parameterization in this study. Effect of Jerlov water type 1, 3 and 5 was also evaluated. The simulated temperature distribution was compared with the observed data by National Fisheries Research and Development Institute to estimate model's response to turbidity and vertical mixing schemes in the Yellow Sea. Simulations with M-Y vertical mixing scheme produced relatively stronger vertical mixing and warmer bottom temperature than the observation. KPP scheme produced weaker vertical mixing and did not well reproduce tidal mixing front along the coast. However, KPP scheme keeps bottom temperature closer to the observation. Consequently, numerical ocean circulation simulations with M-Y vertical mixing scheme tends to produce well mixed vertical temperature structure and that with KPP vertical mixing scheme tends to make stratified vertical temperature structure. When Jerlov water type is higher, sea surface temperature is high and sea bottom temperature is low because downward shortwave radiation is almost absorbed near the sea surface.

A Numerical Study on the Characteristics of Flows and Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Distributions in an Urban Area Using a Multi-scale Model: Part II - Effects of Road Emission (다중규모 모델을 이용한 도시 지역 흐름과 초미세먼지(PM2.5) 분포 특성 연구: Part II - 도로 배출 영향)

  • Park, Soo-Jin;Choi, Wonsik;Kim, Jae-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.36 no.6_3
    • /
    • pp.1653-1667
    • /
    • 2020
  • In this study, we coupled a computation fluid dynamics (CFD) model to the local data assimilation and prediction system (LDAPS), a current operational numerical weather prediction model of the Korea Meteorological Administration. We investigated the characteristics of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) distributions in a building-congested district. To analyze the effects of road emission on the PM2.5 concentrations, we calculated road emissions based on the monthly, daily, and hourly emission factors and the total amount of PM2.5 emissions established from the Clean Air Policy Support System (CAPSS) of the Ministry of Environment. We validated the simulated PM2.5 concentrations against those measured at the PKNU-AQ Sensor stations. In the cases of no road emission, the LDAPS-CFD model underestimated the PM2.5 concentrations measured at the PKNU-AQ Sensor stations. The LDAPS-CFD model improved the PM2.5 concentration predictions by considering road emission. At 07 and 19 LST on 22 June 2020, the southerly wind was dominant at the target area. The PM2.5 distribution at 07 LST were similar to that at 19 LST. The simulated PM2.5 concentrations were significantly affected by the road emissions at the roadside but not significantly at the building roof. In the road-emission case, the PM2.5 concentration was high at the north (wind speeds were weak) and west roads (a long street canyon). The PM2.5 concentration was low in the east road where the building density was relatively low.

Spatial Patterns and Temporal Variability of the Haines Index related to the Wildland Fire Growth Potential over the Korean Peninsula (한반도 산불 확장 잠재도와 관련된 Haines Index의 시.공간적 특징)

  • Choi Cwang-Yong;Kim Jun-Su;Won Myoung-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
    • /
    • v.41 no.2 s.113
    • /
    • pp.168-187
    • /
    • 2006
  • Windy meteorological conditions and dried fire fuels due to higher atmospheric instability and dryness in the lower troposphere can exacerbate fire controls and result in more losses of forest resources and residential properties due to enhanced large wildland fires. Long-term (1979-2005) climatology of the Haines Index reconstructed in this study reveals that spatial patterns and intra-annual variability of the atmospheric instability and dryness in the lower troposphere affect the frequency of wildland fire incidences over the Korean Peninsula. Exponential regression models verify that daily high Haines Index and its monthly frequency has statistically significant correlations with the frequency of the wildland fire occurrences during the fire season (December-April) in South Korea. According to the climatic maps of the Haines Index created by the Geographic Information System (GIS) using the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the lowlands below 500m from the mean sea level in the northwestern regions of the Korean Peninsula demonstrates the high frequency of the Haines Index equal to or greater than five in April and May. The annual frequency of the high Haines Index represents an increasing trend across the Korean Peninsula since the mid-1990s, particularly in Gyeongsangbuk-do and along the eastern coastal areas. The composite of synoptic weather maps at 500hPa for extreme events, in which the high Haines Index lasted for several days consecutively, illustrates that the cold low pressure system developed around the Sea of Okhotsk in the extreme event period enhances the pressure gradient and westerly wind speed over the Korean Peninsula. These results demonstrate the need for further consideration of the spatial-temporal characteristics of vertical atmospheric components, such as atmospheric instability and dryness, in the current Korean fire prediction system.